How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions

The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.

Swiss DRGs : patient heterogeneity and hospital payments

In this paper, we analyze the prospective method of paying hospitals when the within-DRG variance is high. To avoid patients dumping, an outlier payment system is implemented. In the APDRG Swiss System, it consists in a mixture of fully prospective payments for low costs patients and partially cost-based system for high cost patients. We show how the optimal policy depends on the degree to which hospitals take patients' interest into account. A fixed-price policy is optimal when the hospital is sufficiently benevolent. When the hospital is weakly benevolent, a mixed policy solving a trade-off between rent extraction, efficiency and dumping deterrence must be preferred. Following Mougeot and Naegelen (2008), we show how the optimal combination of fixed price and partially costbased payment depends on the degree of benevolence of the hospital, the social cost of public funds and the distribution of patients severity. [Authors]

Invasion and eradication of a competitively superior species in heterogeneous landscapes

The effect of heterogeneous environments upon the dynamics of invasion and the eradication or control of invasive species is poorly understood, although it is a major challenge for biodiversity conservation. Here, we first investigate how the probability and time for invasion are affected by spatial heterogeneity. Then, we study the effect of control program strategies (e.g. species specificity, spatial scale of action, detection and eradication efficiency) on the success and time of eradication. We find that heterogeneity increases both the invasion probability and the time to invasion. Heterogeneity also reduces the probability of eradication but does not change the time taken for successful eradication. We confirm that early detection of invasive species reduces the time until eradication, but we also demonstrate that this is true only if the local control action is sufficiently efficient. The criterion of removal efficiency is even more important for an eradication program than simply ensuring control effort when the invasive species is not abundant.

Exclusion of pulmonary embolism using C-reactive protein and D-dimer. A prospective comparison.

Our goal was to evaluate the diagnostic utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) alone or combined with clinical probability assessment in patients with suspected pulmonary embolism (PE), and to compare its performance to a D-dimer assay. We conducted a prospective study in which we performed a common immuno-turbidimetric CRP test and a rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) D-dimer test in 259 consecutive outpatients with suspected PE at the emergency department of a teaching hospital. We assessed clinical probability of PE by a validated prediction rule overridden by clinical judgment. Patients with D-dimer levels > or = 500 microg/l underwent a work-up consisting of lower-limb venous ultrasound, spiral computerized tomography, ventilation-perfusion scan, or pulmonary angiography. Patients were followed up for three months. Seventy-seven (30%) of the patients had PE. The CRP alone had a sensitivity of 84% (95% confidence interval [CI).: 74 to 92%) and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 87% (95% CI: 78 to 93%) at a cutpoint of 5 mg/l. Overall, 61 (24%) patients with a low clinical probability of PE had a CRP < 5 mg/l. Due to the low prevalence of PE (9%) in this subgroup, the NPV increased to 97% (95% CI: 89 to 100%). The D-dimer (cutpoint 500 micro g/l) showed a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 95 to 100%) and a NPV of 100% (95% CI: 94 to 100%) irrespective of clinical probability and accurately rule out PE in 56 (22%) patients. Standard CRP tests alone or combined with clinical probability assessment cannot safely exclude PE.

Liberties and constraints of the normative approach to evaluation and decision in forensic science: a discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions

At a time when disciplined inference and decision making under uncertainty represent common aims to participants in legal proceedings, the scientific community is remarkably heterogenous in its attitudes as to how these goals ought to be achieved. Probability and decision theory exert a considerable influence, and we think by all reason rightly do so, but they go against a mainstream of thinking that does not embrace-or is not aware of-the 'normative' character of this body of theory. It is normative, in the sense understood in this article, in that it prescribes particular properties, typically (logical) coherence, to which reasoning and decision making ought to conform. Disregarding these properties can result in diverging views which are occasionally used as an argument against the theory, or as a pretext for not following it. Typical examples are objections according to which people, both in everyday life but also individuals involved at various levels in the judicial process, find the theory difficult to understand and to apply. A further objection is that the theory does not reflect how people actually behave. This article aims to point out in what sense these examples misinterpret the analytical framework in its normative perspective. Through examples borrowed mostly from forensic science contexts, it is argued that so-called intuitive scientific attitudes are particularly liable to such misconceptions. These attitudes are contrasted with a statement of the actual liberties and constraints of probability and decision theory and the view according to which this theory is normative.

The Impact of Housing Market Segmentation between Tourists and Residents on the Hedonic Price for Landscape Quality

Market segmentation is an important issue when estimating the implicit price for an environmental amenity from a surrogate market like property. This paper tests the hypothesis of a segmentation of the housing market between tourists and residents and computes the implicit price for natural landscape quality in Swiss alpine resorts. The results show a clear segmentation between both groups of consumers, although tests also show that the estimated coefficient for landscape is similar in the tourists' model and in the residents'. However, since the functional form is non linear, the nominal - rather than relative - value of a change in natural landscape quality is higher in the tourist housing market than in the residents'. Hence, considering the segmentation of the market between tourists and residents is essential in order to provide valid estimates of the nominal implicit price of natural landscape quality.

A Pragmatic Intellectual: Dutch Fabians, Boekman, and Cultural Policy in the Netherlands, 1890-1940

Around 1900, the notion of community art (gemeenschapskunst) served to crystallize Dutch social democratic thinking about the role of the arts in society. Drawing on the pragmatism of leading social democrats like Wibaut, and drawing on his formal education in economics and statistics, the self‐made social democrat Emanuel Boekman redressed the utopian meaning of community art to signify the dissemination of "good" culture over all layers of society in his influential 1939 dissertation on the relation of the state to the arts. Being about facts rather than opinions, Boekman set the boundaries of his work to exclude a substantial discussion of the meaning of "good" culture. On the one hand, this pragmatism helped Boekman to gain support for government intervention for the arts over most of the political spectrum. On the other hand, Boekman thus pre‐empted discussions about the tension between "quality" and "accessibility" of the arts that haunts cultural policy in the Netherlands to this day.

Digital evidence, 'absence' of data and ambiguous patterns of reasoning

In this paper we discuss the use of digital data by the Swiss Federal Criminal Court in a recent case of attempted homicide. We use this case to examine drawbacks for the defense when the presentation of scientific evidence is partial, especially when the only perspective mentioned is that of the prosecution. We tackle this discussion at two distinct levels. First, we pursue an essentially non-technical presentation of the topic by drawing parallels between the court's summing up of the case and flawed patterns of reasoning commonly seen in other forensic disciplines, such as DNA and particle traces (e.g., gunshot residues). Then, we propose a formal analysis of the case, using elements of probability and graphical probability models, to justify our main claim that the partial presentation of digital evidence poses a risk to the administration of justice in that it keeps vital information from the defense. We will argue that such practice constitutes a violation of general principles of forensic interpretation as established by forensic science literature and current recommendations by forensic science interest groups (e.g., the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes). Finally, we posit that argument construction and analysis using formal methods can help replace digital evidence appropriately into context and thus support a sound evaluation of the evidence.

Aetiologies of pulseless electrical activity in out-of-hospital cardiac arrests:A retrospective study and analysis of specific causes

Background: Pulseless electrical activity (PEA) cardiac arrest is defined as a cardiac arrest (CA) presenting with a residual organized electrical activity on the electrocardiogram. In the last decades, the incidence of PEA has regularly increased, compared to other types of CA like ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia. PEA is frequently induced by reversible conditions. The "4 (or 5) H" & "4 (or 5) T" are proposed as a mnemonic to asses for Hypoxia, Hypovolemia, Hypo- /Hyperkalaemia, Hypothermia, Thrombosis (cardiac or pulmonary), cardiac Tamponade, Toxins, and Tension pneumothorax. Other pathologies (intracranial haemorrhage, severe sepsis, myocardial contraction dysfunction) have been identified as potential causes for PEA, but their respective probability and frequencies are unclear and they are not yet included into the resuscitation guidelines. The aim of this study was to analyse the aetiologies of PEA out-of-hospital CA, in order to evaluate the relative frequencies of each cause and therefore to improve the management of patients suffering a PEA cardiac arrest. Method: This retrospective study was based on data routinely and prospectively collected for each PEMS intervention. All adult patients treated from January 1st 2002 to December 2012 31st by the PEMS for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, with PEA as the first recorded rhythm, and admitted to the emergency department (ED) of the Lausanne University Hospital were included. The aetiologies of PEA cardiac arrest were classified into subgroups, based on the classical H&T's classification, supplemented by four other subgroups analysis: trauma, intra-cranial haemorrhage (ICH), non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NIC) and undetermined cause. Results: 1866 OHCA were treated by the PEMS. PEA was the first recorded rhythm in 240 adult patients (13.8 %). After exclusion of 96 patients, 144 patients with a PEA cardiac arrest admitted to the ED were included in the analysis. The mean age was 63.8 ± 20.0 years, 58.3% were men and the survival rate at 48 hours was 29%. 32 different causes of OHCA PEA were established for 119 patients. For 25 patients (17.4 %), we were unable to attribute a specific cause for the PEA cardiac arrest. Hypoxia (23.6 %), acute coronary syndrome (12.5%) and trauma (12.5 %) were the three most frequent causes. Pulmonary embolism, Hypovolemia, Intoxication and Hyperkaliemia occurs in less than 10% of the cases (7.6 %, 5.6 %, 3.5%, respectively 2.1 %). Non ischemic cardiomyopathy and intra-cranial haemorrhage occur in 8.3 % and 6.9 %, respectively. Conclusions: According to our results, intra-cranial haemorrhage and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy represent noticeable causes of PEA in OHCA, with a prevalence equalling or exceeding the frequency of classical 4 H's and 4 T's aetiologies. These two pathologies are potentially accessible to simple diagnostic procedures (native CT-scan or echocardiography) and should be included into the 4 H's and 4 T's mnemonic.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Ethiques de la description: naissance de l'imagination typologique en France, dans le roman et la sociologie (1820-1860)

Résumé: Ce travail d'histoire comparée de la littérature et de la sociologie s'interroge sur l'émergence de la notion de type dans les pratiques de description du monde social au cours des années 1820-1860. A partir de l'analyse des opérations de schématisation engagées par Honoré Balzac dans La Comédie humaine et par Frédéric Le Play dans Les Ouvriers européens, soit deux oeuvres que tout semble éloigner du point de vue de leurs ambitions, de leur forme, et de la trajectoire de leur auteur, mais qui toutes deux placent cependant la typification au centre de leur dispositif, il s'est agi de produire une histoire de l'imagination typologique, et des ontologies, sociales ou non, qui lui furent associées. Aussi le corpus intègre-t-il des textes d'histoire naturelle, de sciences médicales, d'histoire, de chimie, de géologie, de métallurgie, et, bien évidemment, les genres du roman sentimental, du roman historique et de la littérature panoramique, ainsi que les enquêtes ouvrières et la statistique. Abstract: This work offers a compared history of literature and sociology in France between 1820 and 1860. During that period, the notion of type appears in the literary and sociological descriptions of social reality, and becomes more and more central in the apprehension of the differenciations among classes, communities or groups. Based on the analysis of Honoré Balzac's La Comédie humaine and Frédéric Le Play's Les Ouvriers européens, this study shows that these two series of novels and of workers' monographies put typification at the center of their descriptive ambition. More broadly, it proposes a history of the uses of a typological imagination and of the ontologies, above all social, that were underlying them. That is why the texts also taken into account in this study ranges from natural history, medical sciences, history, chemistry geology and metallurgy, to the sentimental novel, the historical novel and the panoramic literature, as well as social inquiries and statistics.