Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

The Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism (SWITCO65+): rationale and methodology.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is common and has a high impact on morbidity, mortality, and costs of care. Although most of the patients with VTE are aged ≥65 years, there is little data about the medical outcomes in the elderly with VTE. The Swiss Cohort of Elderly Patients with VTE (SWITCO65+) is a prospective multicenter cohort study of in- and outpatients aged ≥65 years with acute VTE from all five Swiss university and four high-volume non-university hospitals. The goal is to examine which clinical and biological factors and processes of care drive short- and long-term medical outcomes, health-related quality of life, and medical resource utilization in elderly patients with acute VTE. The cohort also includes a large biobank with biological material from each participant. From September 2009 to March 2012, 1,863 elderly patients with VTE were screened and 1003 (53.8 %) were enrolled in the cohort. Overall, 51.7 % of patients were aged ≥75 years and 52.7 % were men. By October 16, 2012, after an average follow-up time of 512 days, 799 (79.7 %) patients were still actively participating. SWITCO65+ is a unique opportunity to study short- and long-term outcomes in elderly patients with VTE. The Steering Committee encourages national and international collaborative research projects related to SWITCO65+, including sharing anonymized data and biological samples.

Probabilistic base calling of Solexa sequencing data.

BACKGROUND: Solexa/Illumina short-read ultra-high throughput DNA sequencing technology produces millions of short tags (up to 36 bases) by parallel sequencing-by-synthesis of DNA colonies. The processing and statistical analysis of such high-throughput data poses new challenges; currently a fair proportion of the tags are routinely discarded due to an inability to match them to a reference sequence, thereby reducing the effective throughput of the technology. RESULTS: We propose a novel base calling algorithm using model-based clustering and probability theory to identify ambiguous bases and code them with IUPAC symbols. We also select optimal sub-tags using a score based on information content to remove uncertain bases towards the ends of the reads. CONCLUSION: We show that the method improves genome coverage and number of usable tags as compared with Solexa's data processing pipeline by an average of 15%. An R package is provided which allows fast and accurate base calling of Solexa's fluorescence intensity files and the production of informative diagnostic plots.

A methodology for the adaptation of a PMP at the determination of a PMF

This paper presents a new type of very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of a PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation) and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the influence of this rain on a PMF (Probable Maximum Flood) on a catchment area in Switzerland. The spatiotemporal distribution of the PMP was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flow, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the resurgence and the snowmelt. These added factors make the developed model closer to reality and also offer flexibility in the initial condition that is added to the factors concerning the PMP, such as the duration of the rain, the speed and direction of the wind. All these initial conditions taken together offer a complete image of the PMF.

Multifocalité du carcinome épidermoïde sur les voies digestive supérieure et respiratoire distale : technicité du diagnostic endoscopique [Multiple squamous cell carcinoma of the upper digestive and lower respiratory tracts : methodology of endoscopic screening]

L'étude porte sur 951 porteurs d'un cancer primaire bucco-pharyngo-laryngé, et révèle un taux de multifocalité du carcinome épidermoïde sur les voies digestive supérieure (bouche-pharynx-oesophage) et aérienne distale (larynx-trachée-bronches) s'élevant à 14,5 %. Les secondes localisations peuvent être simultanées (6,4 %) ou successives (8,1 %) à la découverte du premier cancer: dès la deuxième année du follow-up leur incidence dépasse celle des récidives. Elles se localisent tant au niveau ORL (8,5 %) qu'oesophagien (3 %) ou bronchique (3 %). Le cancer du voile présente un taux de multifocalité particulièrement élevé (51 %). Les auteurs décrivent un type d'endoscopie de dépistage (bucco-pharyngo-oesophago-laryngo-trachéobronchoscopie) dont la fiabilité repose sur une technicité spécifique d'une part, et sur la connaissance des caractéristiques propres aux secondes localisations d'autre part. Ce dépistage systématique permet de détecter les tumeurs secondaires à un stade le plus souvent précoce et encore asymptomatique.

Testing for potential contextual bias effects during the verification stage of the ACE-V methodology when conducting fingerprint comparisons

This study was conducted to assess if fingerprint specialists could be influenced by extraneous contextual information during a verification process. Participants were separated into three groups: a control group (no contextual information was given), a low bias group (minimal contextual information was given in the form of a report prompting conclusions), and a high bias group (an internationally recognized fingerprint expert provided conclusions and case information to deceive this group into believing that it was his case and conclusions). A similar experiment was later conducted with laypersons. The results showed that fingerprint experts were influenced by contextual information during fingerprint comparisons, but not towards making errors. Instead, fingerprint experts under the biasing conditions provided significantly fewer definitive and erroneous conclusions than the control group. In contrast, the novice participants were more influenced by the bias conditions and did tend to make incorrect judgments, especially when prompted towards an incorrect response by the bias prompt.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Appropriateness of colonoscopy in Europe (EPAGE II): presentation of methodology, general results, and analysis of complications.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Appropriate use of colonoscopy is a key component of quality management in gastrointestinal endoscopy. In an update of a 1998 publication, the 2008 European Panel on the Appropriateness of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (EPAGE II) defined appropriateness criteria for various colonoscopy indications. This introductory paper therefore deals with methodology, general appropriateness, and a review of colonoscopy complications. METHODS:The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method was used to evaluate the appropriateness of various diagnostic colonoscopy indications, with 14 multidisciplinary experts using a scale from 1 (extremely inappropriate) to 9 (extremely appropriate). Evidence reported in a comprehensive updated literature review was used for these decisions. Consolidation of the ratings into three appropriateness categories (appropriate, uncertain, inappropriate) was based on the median and the heterogeneity of the votes. The experts then met to discuss areas of disagreement in the light of existing evidence, followed by a second rating round, with a subsequent third voting round on necessity criteria, using much more stringent criteria (i. e. colonoscopy is deemed mandatory). RESULTS: Overall, 463 indications were rated, with 55 %, 16 % and 29 % of them being judged appropriate, uncertain and inappropriate, respectively. Perforation and hemorrhage rates, as reported in 39 studies, were in general < 0.1 % and < 0.3 %, respectively CONCLUSIONS: The updated EPAGE II criteria constitute an aid to clinical decision-making but should in no way replace individual judgment. Detailed panel results are freely available on the internet (www.epage.ch) and will thus constitute a reference source of information for clinicians.