A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Accumulation des carbohydrates chez les sexués de plusieurs espèces de fourmis en relation avec l'existence ou l'absence d'un vol nuptial

The dispersal strategy of ants generally makes use of a nuptial flight to bring together the sexes. The energy necessary to accomplish this flight comes from stored carbohydrates. However, in some species, one of the sexes does not fly and mating occurs in the nest. This is the case in Iridomyrmex humilis and Cataglyphis cursor, in which the virgin queens possess wings but not leave the natal nest. We show in this work that the winged females of these two species accumulate very little carbohydrate during the maturation period occuring between emergence and mating: expressed as a percentage of dry weight at the time of mating, the total carbohydrates reach only 3.2% in I. humilis and 2.1% in C. cursor. In contrast, the males of these species which fly, possess three to four times more carbohydrates (13.0% and 6.2%, respectively). These latter values are very similar to those found for both sexes of species employing nuptial flights, such several species of wood ants (Formica rufa, F. polyctena, F. lugubris ), Lasius (L. niger , L. flavus ) or Myrmica scabrinodis also studied here. It appears that the absence of the mating flight is associated with reduced levels of carbohydrates, specially glycogen

L'école bouge : un bilan après 3 ans d'existence dans les cantons de Neuchâtel et Vaud

Rapport Baspo

Haut potentiel intellectuel et TDA/H: ressemblances, différences, co-existence ?

Si les particularités du haut potentiel intellectuel (HPI) et du trouble déficit d'attention avec/sans hyperactivité (TDA/H) sont largement décrites dans la littérature, les liens entre ces deux profils sont moins connus. Il est pourtant établi que HPI et TDA/H partagent des manifestations communes comme l'agitation, les difficultés scolaires ou les troubles du comportement. Cette similitude sémiologique est responsable de confusions, d'errance diagnostique, voire de choix thérapeutiques discutables. Et la mission du médecin devient même particulièrement délicate lorsqu'il s'agit d'envisager une éventuelle « co-morbidité ». La clinique nous apprend en effet que le HPI et le TDA/H peuvent cohabiter chez le même enfant. Ainsi, les identifier et les prendre en charge devient un exercice complexe mais indispensable, car l'approche et le soutien de ces enfants aux besoins particuliers est très différente selon les cas de figure.

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Surdités légères et surdités unilatérales chez l'enfant: quelle importance [Minimal or unilateral hearing loss in children: is it a problem?].

The word "minimal" or "mild" hearing loss seems to imply that their effects are mild or negligible. The literature supports that they can have a significant impact on educative end educational development of young children and contribute to problems in fields of social function, communication and educational achievement. Unilateral hearing loss in children has been considered for long to be of little consequence. In fact it causes problems in speech and language development, speech understanding, especially in noisy environments, and school results. Early diagnosis, follow-up during preschool and school ages are mandatory.

La dysménorrhée: un problème pour le pédiatre [Dysmenorrhea: a problem for the pediatrician?].

Dysmenorrhea is common in adolescent years, especially after the onset of ovulatory cycles, usually 2 to 3 years after menarche. Pain and symptoms are responsible for school absenteeism and interruption of sports and social activities. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to measure the prevalence of severe dysmenorrhea and its consequences on adolescent girls in Switzerland. Treatment of dysmenorrhea is discussed and recommendations for clinical practice are given. STUDY DESIGN: Cross sectional survey (SMASH 02) on a nationally representative sample of adolescents (n=7548; 3340 females), aged 16 to 20 years who attended post-mandatory education. A self-administered questionnaire was used to assess the severity of dysmenorrhea and its consequences on daily life pursuit of medical help and medications used. RESULTS: Among 3340 girls, 86.6% suffered from dysmenorrhea-related symptoms: 12.4% described having severe dysmenorrhea and 74.2% moderate dysmenorrhea. Girls with severe dysmenorrhea described heavier consequences on daily activities compared with girls without dysmenorrhea: 47.8% of girls with severe dysmenorrhea reported staying at home and 66.5% declared reducing their sportive activities. Yet, fewer than half have consulted a physician for this complaint and even fewer were treated properly. RECOMMENDATION: The pediatrician has a pivotal role in screening young patients for dysmenorrhea, as well as, educating and effectively treating adolescent girls with menstruation-associated symptoms. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are considered the first-line of treatment for dysmenorrhea, and adolescents with symptoms that do not respond to this treatment for 3 menstrual periods should be offered combined oestroprogestative contraception and must be followed up, as non-responders may have an underlying organic pathology. CONCLUSION: Dysmenorrhea is a frequent health problem in adolescent years and adolescent care providers should be able to care for these patients in an efficient way.