Dynamic Modelling of Material Flows and Sustainable Resource Use: Case Studies in Regional Metabolism and Space Life Support Systems

Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Equilibration and disequilibration between monazite and garnet: indication from phase-composition and quantitative texture analysis

The integration of information which can be gained from accessory [i.e. age (t)] and rock-forming minerals [i.e. temperature (T) and pressure (P)] requires a more profound understanding of the equilibration kinetics during metamorphic processes. This paper presents an approach comparing conventional P-T estimate from equilibrated assemblages of rock-forming minerals with temperature data derived from yttrium-garnet-monazite (YGM) and yttrium-garnet-xenotime (YGX) geothermometry. Such a comparison provides an initial indication on differences between equilibration of major and trace elements. Regarding this purpose, two migmatites, two polycyclic and one monocyclic gneiss from the Central Alps (Switzerland, northern Italy) were investigated. While the polycyclic samples exhibit trace-element equilibration between monazite and garnet grains assigned to the same metamorphic event, there are relics of monazite and garnet obviously surviving independent of their textural position. These observations suggest that surface processes dominate transport processes during equilibration of those samples. The monocyclic gneiss, on the contrary, displays rare isolated monazite with equilibration of all elements, despite comparably large transport distances. With a nearly linear crystal-size distribution of the garnet grain population, growth kinetics, related to the major elements, were likely surface-controlled in this sample. In contrast to these completely equilibrated examples, the migmatites indicate disequilibrium between garnet and monazite with a change in REE patterns on garnet transects. The cause for this disequilibrium may be related to a potential disequilibrium initiated by a changing bulk chemistry during melt segregation. While migmatite environments are expected to support high transport rates (i.e. high temperatures and melt presence), the evolution of equilibration in migmatites is additionaly related to change in chemistry. As a key finding, surface-controlled equilibration kinetics seem to dominate transport-controlled processes in the investigated samples. This may be decisive information towards the understanding of age data derived from monazite.

Molecular insight into heart development and congenital heart disease: An update review from the Arab countries.

Congenital heart defect (CHD) has a major influence on affected individuals as well as on the supportive and associated environment such as the immediate family. Unfortunately, CHD is common worldwide with an incidence of approximately 1% and consequently is a major health concern. The Arab population has a high rate of consanguinity, fertility, birth, and annual population growth, in addition to a high incidence of diabetes mellitus and obesity. All these factors may lead to a higher incidence and prevalence of CHD within the Arab population than in the rest of the world, making CHD of even greater concern. Sadly, most Arab countries lack appropriate public health measures directed toward the control and prevention of congenital malformations and so the importance of CHD within the population remains unknown but is thought to be high. In approximately 85% of CHD patients, the multifactorial theory is considered as the pathologic basis. The genetic risk factors for CHD can be attributed to large chromosomal aberrations, copy number variations (CNV) of particular regions in the chromosome, and gene mutations in specific nuclear transcription pathways and in the genes that are involved in cardiac structure and development. The application of modern molecular biology techniques such as high-throughput nucleotide sequencing and chromosomal array and methylation array all have the potential to reveal more genetic defects linked to CHD. Exploring the genetic defects in CHD pathology will improve our knowledge and understanding about the diverse pathways involved and also about the progression of this disease. Ultimately, this will link to more efficient genetic diagnosis and development of novel preventive therapeutic strategies, as well as gene-targeted clinical management. This review summarizes our current understanding of the molecular basis of normal heart development and the pathophysiology of a wide range of CHD. The risk factors that might account for the high prevalence of CHD within the Arab population and the measures required to be undertaken for conducting research into CHD in Arab countries will also be discussed.

Causes of health expenditure growth : the predominance of changes in medical practices over population ageing

On the basis of French individual data, this paper compares the effects of demographic change, changes in morbidity and changes in practices on the growth in health expenditures that occurred between 1992 and 2000. Micro simulations show that the rise in expenditures due to ageing is relatively small and that the impact of changes in practices is times larger. Furthermore, changes in morbidity induce savings which more than offset the increase in spending due to population ageing. [Authors]

Genetic variability in a population of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi causes variation in plant growth.

Different species of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) alter plant growth and affect plant coexistence and diversity. Effects of within-AMF species or within-population variation on plant growth have received less attention. High genetic variation exists within AMF populations. However, it is unknown whether genetic variation contributes to differences in plant growth. In our study, a population of AMF was cultivated under identical conditions for several generations prior to the experiments thus avoiding environmental maternal effects. We show that genetically different Glomus intraradices isolates from one AMF population significantly alter plant growth in an axenic system and in greenhouse experiments. Isolates increased or reduced plant growth meaning that plants potentially receive benefits or are subject to costs by forming associations with different individuals in the AMF population. This shows that genetic variability in AMF populations could affect host-plant fitness and should be considered in future research to understand these important soil organisms.

Causes of health expenditure growth : the predominance of changes in medical practices over population ageing

The increase in total health care expenditures in France can be explained by three distinct factors : the purely demographic effect (namely, the increase in the proportion of elderly people, given that health expenditure is an increasing function of age) ; the changes in morbidity at a given age ; the changes in practices, for a given age and morbidity level (e.g technological progress). The aim of this paper is basically to disentangle, evaluate and interpret the respective effects of these three factors. [Extrait introduction p. 3]

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Genetic diversity and host plant preferences revealed by simple sequence repeat and mitochondrial markers in a population of the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus Glomus intraradices.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are important symbionts of plants that improve plant nutrient acquisition and promote plant diversity. Although within-species genetic differences among AMF have been shown to differentially affect plant growth, very little is actually known about the degree of genetic diversity in AMF populations. This is largely because of difficulties in isolation and cultivation of the fungi in a clean system allowing reliable genotyping to be performed. A population of the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus Glomus intraradices growing in an in vitro cultivation system was studied using newly developed simple sequence repeat (SSR), nuclear gene intron and mitochondrial ribosomal gene intron markers. The markers revealed a strong differentiation at the nuclear and mitochondrial level among isolates. Genotypes were nonrandomly distributed among four plots showing genetic subdivisions in the field. Meanwhile, identical genotypes were found in geographically distant locations. AMF genotypes showed significant preferences to different host plant species (Glycine max, Helianthus annuus and Allium porrum) used before the fungal in vitro culture establishment. Host plants in a field could provide a heterogeneous environment favouring certain genotypes. Such preferences may partly explain within-population patterns of genetic diversity.

Microstructural, chemical and textural records during growth of snowball garnet

The growth history of two populations of snowball garnet from the Lukmanier Pass area (central Swiss Alps) was examined through a detailed analysis of three-dimensional geometry, chemical zoning and crystallographic orientation. The first population, collected in the hinge of a chevron-type fold, shows an apparent rotation of 360 degrees. The first 270 degrees are characterized by spiral-shaped inclusion trails, gradual and concentric Mn zoning and a single crystallographic orientation, whereas in the last 90 degrees, crenulated inclusion trails and secondary Mn maxima centred on distinct crystallographic garnet domains are observed. Microstructural, geochemical and textural data indicate a radical change in growth regime between the two growth sequences. In the first 270 degrees, growth occurred under rotational non-coaxial flow, whereas in the last 90 degrees, garnet grew under a non-rotational shortening regime. The second population, collected in the limb of the same chevron-type fold structure, is characterized by a spiral geometry that does not exceed 270 degrees of apparent rotation. These garnet microstructures do not record any evidence for a modification of the stress field during garnet growth. Concentric Mn zoning as well as a single crystallographic orientation are observed for the entire spiral. Electron backscatter diffraction data indicate that nearly all central domains in the snowball garnet are characterized by one [001] axis oriented (sub-)parallel to the symmetry axis and by another [001] axis oriented (sub-)parallel to the orientation of the internal foliation. These features suggest that the crystallographic orientation across the garnet spiral is not random and that a relation exists among the symmetry axis, the internal foliation and the crystallographic orientation.

Fishery-induced selection on an Alpine whitefish: quantifying genetic and environmental effects on individual growth rate

Size-selective fishing, environmental changes and reproductive strategies are expected to affect life-history traits such as the individual growth rate. The relative contribution of these factors is not clear, particularly whether size-selective fishing can have a substantial impact on the genetics and hence on the evolution of individual growth rates in wild populations. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of an isolated population of the Alpine whitefish Coregonus palaea. We determined the selection differentials on growth rate, the actual change of growth rate over time and indicators of reproductive strategies that may potentially change over time. The selection differential can be reliably estimated in our study population because almost all the fish are harvested within their first years of life, i.e. few fish escape fishing mortality. We found a marked decline in average adult growth rate over the 25 years and a significant selection differential for adult growth, but no evidence for any linear change in reproductive strategies over time. Assuming that the heritability of growth in this whitefish corresponds to what was found in other salmonids, about a third of the observed decline in growth rate would be linked to fishery-induced evolution. Size-selective fishing seems to affect substantially the genetics of individual growth in our study population.

Earthquake impacts in old-growth Nothofagus forests in New Zealand

Six stands located on different land forms in mixed old-growth Nothofagus forests in the Matiri Valley (northwest of South Island. New Zealand) were sampled to examine the effects of two recent large earthquakes on tree establishment and tree-ring growth, and how these varied across land forms. 50 trees were cor ed in each stand to determine age structure and the cores were cross-dated to precisely date unusual periods of radial growth. The 1968 earthquake (M = 7.1, epicentre 35 km from the study area) had no discernible impact on the sampled stands. The impact of the 1929 earthquake (M = 7.7, epicentre 20 kin from the study area) varied between stands, depending on whether or not they had been damaged by soil or rock movement. In all stands, the age structures showed a pulse of N. fusca establishment following the 1929 earthquake, with this species dominating establishment in large gaps created by landslides. Smaller gaps, created by branch or tree death, were closed by both N. fusca and N. menziesii. The long period of releases (1929-1945) indicates that direct earthquake damage was not the only cause of tree death, and that many trees died subsequently most likely of pathogen attack or a drought in the early 1930s. The impacts of the 1929 earthquake are compared to a storm in 1905 and a drought in 1974-1978 which also affected forests in the region. Our results confirm that earthquakes are an important factor driving forest dynamics in this tectonically active region, and that the diversity of earthquake impacts is a major source of heterogeneity in forest structure and regeneration.

Population density and offspring size in the cladoceran Simocephalus vetulus (Müller)

r/K theory classically predicts that offspring size should increase under density-dependent selection. However, this is questionable, being based on implicit rather than explicit assumption (the logistic model does not include offsring size as a parameter). From recent models of optimal offspring size (Sibly & Calow, 1983; Taylor & Williams, 1984) it can be shown that density should select for larger offspring if density-dependence in the per capita rate of increase is mainly due to a reduction of the juvenile growth rate or survivorship. In contrast, density should select for smaller offspring if such density-dependence is mainly due to a reduction of adult fecundity or survivorship. Therfore, the outcome of selection cannot be predicted without precise knowledge of the density-dependence of age-specific reproduction and mortality rates. To test the above models, genetically identical individuals of Simocephalus vetulus (Müller) were reared in a density gradient; density-dependence in the per capita rate of increase was shown to be mainly due to a reduction of the juvenile growth rate, thereby selecting for larger offspring; offspring size at birth appeared to be phenotypically plastic and to increase with density. Models were therefore qualitatively supported. However, a discrepancy occurred in quantitative predictions; offspring were produced larger than predicted. Field and laboratory studies are suggested to address this.

Intraocular penetration of penciclovir after oral administration of famciclovir: a population pharmacokinetic model.

OBJECTIVES: We developed a population model that describes the ocular penetration and pharmacokinetics of penciclovir in human aqueous humour and plasma after oral administration of famciclovir. METHODS: Fifty-three patients undergoing cataract surgery received a single oral dose of 500 mg of famciclovir prior to surgery. Concentrations of penciclovir in both plasma and aqueous humour were measured by HPLC with fluorescence detection. Concentrations in plasma and aqueous humour were fitted using a two-compartment model (NONMEM software). Inter-individual and intra-individual variabilities were quantified and the influence of demographics and physiopathological and environmental variables on penciclovir pharmacokinetics was explored. RESULTS: Drug concentrations were fitted using a two-compartment, open model with first-order transfer rates between plasma and aqueous humour compartments. Among tested covariates, creatinine clearance, co-intake of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and body weight significantly influenced penciclovir pharmacokinetics. Plasma clearance was 22.8 ± 9.1 L/h and clearance from the aqueous humour was 8.2 × 10(-5) L/h. AUCs were 25.4 ± 10.2 and 6.6 ± 1.8 μg · h/mL in plasma and aqueous humour, respectively, yielding a penetration ratio of 0.28 ± 0.06. Simulated concentrations in the aqueous humour after administration of 500 mg of famciclovir three times daily were in the range of values required for 50% growth inhibition of non-resistant strains of the herpes zoster virus family. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma and aqueous penciclovir concentrations showed significant variability that could only be partially explained by renal function, body weight and comedication. Concentrations in the aqueous humour were much lower than in plasma, suggesting that factors in the blood-aqueous humour barrier might prevent its ocular penetration or that redistribution occurs in other ocular compartments.