Inversion of crosshole seismic data in heterogenous environments : Comparison of waveform and ray-based approaches

High-resolution tomographic imaging of the shallow subsurface is becoming increasingly important for a wide range of environmental, hydrological and engineering applications. Because of their superior resolution power, their sensitivity to pertinent petrophysical parameters, and their far reaching complementarities, both seismic and georadar crosshole imaging are of particular importance. To date, corresponding approaches have largely relied on asymptotic, ray-based approaches, which only account for a very small part of the observed wavefields, inherently suffer from a limited resolution, and in complex environments may prove to be inadequate. These problems can potentially be alleviated through waveform inversion. We have developed an acoustic waveform inversion approach for crosshole seismic data whose kernel is based on a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) solution of the 2-D acoustic wave equations. This algorithm is tested on and applied to synthetic data from seismic velocity models of increasing complexity and realism and the results are compared to those obtained using state-of-the-art ray-based traveltime tomography. Regardless of the heterogeneity of the underlying models, the waveform inversion approach has the potential of reliably resolving both the geometry and the acoustic properties of features of the size of less than half a dominant wavelength. Our results do, however, also indicate that, within their inherent resolution limits, ray-based approaches provide an effective and efficient means to obtain satisfactory tomographic reconstructions of the seismic velocity structure in the presence of mild to moderate heterogeneity and in absence of strong scattering. Conversely, the excess effort of waveform inversion provides the greatest benefits for the most heterogeneous, and arguably most realistic, environments where multiple scattering effects tend to be prevalent and ray-based methods lose most of their effectiveness.

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The paper spells out five different accounts of the relationship between objects and relations three of which are versions of ontic structural realism (OSR). We argue that the distinction between objects and properties, including relations, is merely a conceptual one by contrast to an ontological one: properties, including relations, are modes, that is the concrete, particular ways in which objects exist. We then set out moderate OSR as the view according to which irreducible relations are central ways in which the fundamental physical objects exist. Physical structures thus consist in objects for whom it is essential that they are related in certain ways. There hence are objects, but they do not possess an intrinsic identity. This view can also admit intrinsic properties as ways in which objects exist provided that these do not amount to identity conditions for the objects. Finally, we indicate how this view can take objective modality into account.

Delayed-Choice Experiments and the Metaphysics of Entanglement

Delayed-choice experiments in quantum mechanics are often taken to undermine a realistic interpretation of the quantum state. More specifically, Healey has recently argued that the phenomenon of delayed-choice entanglement swapping is incompatible with the view that entanglement is a physical relation between quantum systems. This paper argues against these claims. It first reviews two paradigmatic delayed-choice experiments and analyzes their metaphysical implications. It then applies the results of this analysis to the case of entanglement swapping, showing that such experiments pose no threat to realism about entanglement.

Three essays on liquidity risk

Preface In this thesis we study several questions related to transaction data measured at an individual level. The questions are addressed in three essays that will constitute this thesis. In the first essay we use tick-by-tick data to estimate non-parametrically the jump process of 37 big stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange, and of the CAC 40 index. We separate the total daily returns in three components (trading continuous, trading jump, and overnight), and we characterize each one of them. We estimate at the individual and index levels the contribution of each return component to the total daily variability. For the index, the contribution of jumps is smaller and it is compensated by the larger contribution of overnight returns. We test formally that individual stocks jump more frequently than the index, and that they do not respond independently to the arrive of news. Finally, we find that daily jumps are larger when their arrival rates are larger. At the contemporaneous level there is a strong negative correlation between the jump frequency and the trading activity measures. The second essay study the general properties of the trade- and volume-duration processes for two stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange. These two stocks correspond to a very illiquid stock and to a relatively liquid stock. We estimate a class of autoregressive gamma process with conditional distribution from the family of non-central gamma (up to a scale factor). This process was introduced by Gouriéroux and Jasiak and it is known as Autoregressive gamma process. We also evaluate the ability of the process to fit the data. For this purpose we use the Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1998) test; and the capacity of the model to reproduce the moments of the observed data, and the empirical serial correlation and the partial serial correlation functions. We establish that the model describes correctly the trade duration process of illiquid stocks, but have problems to adjust correctly the trade duration process of liquid stocks which present long-memory characteristics. When the model is adjusted to volume duration, it successfully fit the data. In the third essay we study the economic relevance of optimal liquidation strategies by calibrating a recent and realistic microstructure model with data from the Paris Stock Exchange. We distinguish the case of parameters which are constant through the day from time-varying ones. An optimization problem incorporating this realistic microstructure model is presented and solved. Our model endogenizes the number of trades required before the position is liquidated. A comparative static exercise demonstrates the realism of our model. We find that a sell decision taken in the morning will be liquidated by the early afternoon. If price impacts increase over the day, the liquidation will take place more rapidly.

The Foundational Significance of Leggett's Non-local Hidden-Variable Theories

Laudisa (Found. Phys. 38:1110-1132, 2008) claims that experimental research on the class of non-local hidden-variable theories introduced by Leggett is misguided, because these theories are irrelevant for the foundations of quantum mechanics. I show that Laudisa's arguments fail to establish the pessimistic conclusion he draws from them. In particular, it is not the case that Leggett-inspired research is based on a mistaken understanding of Bell's theorem, nor that previous no-hidden-variable theorems already exclude Leggett's models. Finally, I argue that the framework of Bohmian mechanics brings out the importance of Leggett tests, rather than proving their irrelevance, as Laudisa supposes.

Political Emotions: Civil Religion and Melodrama in Spielberg's Lincoln

This essay focuses on how Spielberg's film engages with and contributes to the myth of Lincoln as a super-natural figure, a saint more than a hero or great statesman, while anchoring his moral authority in the sentimental rhetoric of the domestic sphere. It is this use of the melodramatic mode, linking the familial space with the national through the trope of the victim-hero, which is the essay's main concern. With Tony Kushner, author of Angels in America, as scriptwriter, it is perhaps not surprising that melodrama is the operative mode in the film. One of the issues that emerge from this analysis is how the film updates melodrama for a contemporary audience in order to minimize what could be perceived as manipulative sentimental devices, observing for most of the film an aesthetic of relative sobriety and realism. In the last hour, and especially the final minutes of the film, melodramatic conventions are deployed in full force and infused with hagiographic iconography to produce a series of emotionally charged moments that create a perfect union of American Civil Religion and classical melodrama. The cornerstone of both cultural paradigms, as deployed in this film, is death: Lincoln's at the hands of an assassin, and the Civil War soldiers', poignantly depicted at key moments of the film. Finally, the essay shows how film melodrama as a genre weaves together the private and the public, the domestic with the national, the familial with the military, and links pathos to politics in a carefully choreographed narrative of sentimentalized mythopoesis.

Post-Plutonic Magmatism: from the Source to the Emplacement of an Upper Crustal Dyke Swarm, Adamello Massif, Italy

Magmas of the arc-tholeiitic and calc-alkaline differentiation suites contribute substantially to the formation of continental crust in subduction zones. Different geochemical-petrological models have been put forward to achieve evolved magmas forming large volumes of tonalitic to granitic plutons, building an important part of the continental crust. Primary magmas produced in the mantle wedge overlying the subducted slab migrate through the mantle and the crust. During the transfer, magma can accumulate in intermediate reservoirs at different levels where crystallization leads to differentiation and the heat transfer from the magma, together with gained heat from solidification, lead to partial melting of the crust. Partial melts can be assimilated and mix with more primitive magma. Moreover, already formed crystal cumulates or crystal mushes can be recycled and reactivated to transfer to higher crustal levels. Magma transport in the crust involves fow through fractures within a brittle elastic rock. The solidified magma filled crack, a dyke, can crosscut previously formed geological structures and thus serves as a relative or absolute time marker. The study area is situated in the Adamello massif. The Adamello massif is a composite of plutons that were emplaced between 42 and 29 million years. A later dyke swarm intruded into the southern part of the Adamello Batholith. A fractionation model covering dyke compositions from picrobasalts to dacites results in the cummulative crystallization of 17% olivine, 2% Cr-rich spinel, 18% clinopyroxene, 41% amphibole, 4% plagioclase and 0.1% magnetite to achieve an andesitic composition out of a hydrous primitive picrobasalt. These rocks show a similar geochemical evolution as experimental data simulating fractional crystallization and associated magma differentiation at lower crustal depth (7-10 kbar). The peraluminous, corundum normative composition is one characteristic of more evolved dacitic magmas, which has been explained in a long lasting debate with two di_erent models. Melting of mafic crust or politic material provides one model, whereas an alternative is fractionation from primary mantle derived melts. Amphibole occurring in basaltic-andesitic and andesitic dyke rocks as fractionating cumulate phase extracted from lower crustal depth (6-7.5 kbar) is driving the magmas to peraluminous, corundum normative compositions, which are represented by tonalites forming most of the Adamello Batholith. Most primitive picrobasaltic dykes have a slightly steepened chondrite normalized rare earth elements (REE) pattern and the increased enrichment of light-REE (LREE) for andesites and dacites can be explained by the fractional crystallization model originating from a picrobasalt, taking the changing fractionating phase assemblage and temperature into account. The injection of hot basaltic magma (~1050°C) in a closely spaced dyke swarm increases the surface of the contact to the mainly tonalitic wallrock. Such a setting induces partial melting of the wall rock and selective assimilation. Partial melting of the tonalite host is further expressed through intrusion breccias from basaltic dykes. Heat conduction models with instantaneous magma injection for such a dyke swarm geometry can explain features of partial melting observed in the field. Geochemical data of minerals and bulk rock further underline the selective or bulk assimilation of the tonalite host rock at upper crustal levels (~2-3 kbar), in particular with regard to light ion lithophile elements (LILE) such as Sr, Ba and Rb. Primitive picrobasalts carry an immiscible felsic assimilant as enclaves that bring along refractory rutile and zircon with textures typically found in oceanic plagiogranites or high pressure/low-temperature metamorphic rocks in general. U-Pb data implies a lower Cretaceous age for zircon not yet described as assimilant in Eocene to Oligocene magmatic rocks of the Central Southern Alps. The distribution of post-plutonic dykes in large batholiths such as the Adamello is one of the key features for understanding the regional stress field during the post-batholith emplacement cooling history. The emplacement of the regional dyke swarm covering the southern part of the Adamello massif was associated with consistent left lateral strike-slip movement along magma dilatation planes, leading to en echelon segmentation of dykes. Through the dilation by magma of pre-existing weaknesses and cracks in an otherwise uniform host rock, the dyke propagation and according orientation in the horizontal plane adjusted continuously perpendicular to least compressive remote stress σ3, resulting in an inferred rotation of the remote principal stress field. Les magmas issus des zones de subduction contribuent substantiellement à la formation de la croûte continentale. Les plutons tonalitiques et granitiques représentent, en effet, une partie importante de la croûte continentale. Des magmas primaires produits dans le 'mantle wedge ', partie du manteau se trouvant au-dessus de la plaque plongeante dans des zones de subduction, migrent à travers le manteau puis la croûte. Pendant ce transfert, le magma peut s'accumuler dans des réservoirs intermédiaires à différentes profondeurs. Le stockage de magma dans ces réservoirs engendre, d'une part, la différentiation des magmas par cristallisation fractionnée et, d'autre part, une fusion partielle la croûte continentale préexistante associée au transfert de la chaleur des magmas vers l'encaissant. Ces liquides magmatiques issus de la croûte peuvent, ensuite, se mélanger avec des magmas primaires. Le transport du magma dans la croûte implique notamment un flux de magma à travers différentes fractures recoupant les roches encaissantes élastiques. Au cours de ce processus de migration, des cumulats de cristaux ou des agrégats de cristaux encore non-solidifiés, peuvent être recyclés et réactivés pour être transportés à des niveaux supérieures de la croûte. Le terrain d'étude est situé dans le massif d'Adamello. Celui-ci est composé de plusieurs plutons mis en place entre 42 et 29 millions d'années. Dans une phase tardive de l'activité magmatique liée à ce batholite, une série de filons de composition variable allant de picrobasalte à des compositions dacitiques s'est mise en place la partie sud du massif. Deux modèles sont proposés dans la littérature, pour expliquer la formation des magmas dacitiques caractérisés par des compositions peralumineux (i.e. à corindon normatif). Le premier modèle propose que ces magmas soient issus de la fusion de matériel mafique et pélitique présent dans la partie inférieur de la croûte, alors que le deuxième modèle suggère une évolution par cristallisation fractionnée à partir de liquides primaires issus du manteau. Un modèle de cristallisation fractionnée a pu être développé pour expliquer l'évolution des filons de l'Adamello. Ce modèle explique la formation des filons dacitiques par la cristallisation fractionnée de 17% olivine, 2% spinelle riche en Cr, 18% clinopyroxène, 41% amphibole, 4% plagioclase et 0.1% magnetite à partir de liquide de compositions picrobasaltiques. Ce modèle prend en considération les contraintes pétrologiques déduites de l'observation des différents filons ainsi que du champ de stabilité des différentes phases en fonction de la température. Ces roches montrent une évolution géochimique similaire aux données expérimentales simulant la cristallisation fractionnée de magmas évoluant à des niveaux inférieurs de la croûte (7-10 kbar). Le modèle montre, en particulier, le rôle prépondérant de l'amphibole, une phase qui contrôle en particulier le caractère peralumineux des magmas différentiés ainsi que leurs compositions en éléments en traces. Des phénomènes de fusion partielle de l'encaissant tonalitique lors de la mise en place de _lons mafiques sont observée sur le terrain. L'injection du magma basaltique chaud (~1050°C) sous forme de filons rapprochés augmente la surface du contact avec l'encaissante tonalitique. Une telle situation produit la fusion partielle des roches encaissantes nécessaire à l'incorporation d'enclaves mafiques observés au sein des tonalites. Pour comprendre les conditions nécessaires pour la fusion partielle des roches encaissantes, des modèles de conduction thermique pour une injection simultanée d'une série de filons ont été développées. Des données géochimiques sur les minéraux et sur les roches totales soulignent qu'au niveau supérieur de la croûte, l'assimilation sélective ou totale de l'encaissante tonalitique modifie la composition du liquide primaire pour les éléments lithophiles tel que le Sr, Ba et Rb. Un autre aspect important concernant la pétrologie des filons de l'Adamello est la présence d'enclaves felsiques dans les filons les plus primitifs. Ces enclaves montrent, en particulier, des textures proches de celles rencontrées dans des plagiogranites océaniques ou dans des roches métamorphiques de haute pression/basse température. Ces enclaves contiennent du zircon et du rutile. La datations de ces zircons à l'aide du géochronomètre U-Pb indique un âge Crétacé inférieur. Cet âge est important, car aucune roche de cet âge n'a été considérée comme un assimilant potentiel pour des roches magmatiques d'âge Eocène à Oligocène dans les Alpes Sud Centrales. La réparation spatiale des filons post-plutoniques dans des grands batholites tel que l'Adamello, est une caractéristique clé pour la compréhension des champs de contraintes lors du refroidissement du batholite. L'orientation des filons va, en particulier, indiqué la contrainte minimal au sein des roches encaissante. La mise en place de la série de filon recoupant la partie Sud du massif de l'Adamello est associée à un décrochement senestre, un décrochement que l'on peut lié aux contraintes tectoniques régionales auxquelles s'ajoutent l'effet de la dilatation produite par la mise en place du batholite lui-même. Ce décrochement senestre produit une segmentation en échelon des filons.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Case studies and mathematical models of ecological speciation. 1. Cichlids in a crater lake.

A recent study of a pair of sympatric species of cichlids in Lake Apoyo in Nicaragua is viewed as providing probably one of the most convincing examples of sympatric speciation to date. Here, we describe and study a stochastic, individual-based, explicit genetic model tailored for this cichlid system. Our results show that relatively rapid (<20,000 generations) colonization of a new ecological niche and (sympatric or parapatric) speciation via local adaptation and divergence in habitat and mating preferences are theoretically plausible if: (i) the number of loci underlying the traits controlling local adaptation, and habitat and mating preferences is small; (ii) the strength of selection for local adaptation is intermediate; (iii) the carrying capacity of the population is intermediate; and (iv) the effects of the loci influencing nonrandom mating are strong. We discuss patterns and timescales of ecological speciation identified by our model, and we highlight important parameters and features that need to be studied empirically to provide information that can be used to improve the biological realism and power of mathematical models of ecological speciation.

Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

War and National Renewal: Civil Religion and Blood Sacrifice in American Culture

Wars are often associated with a rhetoric of renewal or new beginnings. This essay explores this claim through the lens of civil religion and a recent book by Carolyn Marvin and David Ingle, Blood Sacrifice and the Nation, which combines Emile Durkheim with Réné Girard in proposing that modern national cohesion depends on blood sacrifice. I unpack some of the paradoxes raised by this theory of national renewal in the context of 9/11, with a special focus on the sacred status of the flag and the special attention given to uniformed serviceman in the American body politic.

Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

Le réalisme des relations : étude des réponses apportées au problème de la différence entre la relation et son fondement (1250-1350)

La question de savoir si la relation est différente réellement de son fondement se rencontre fréquemment dans les textes médiévaux à partir du milieu du treizième siècle. Elle se pose avant tout dans un cadre aristotélicien de discussion des catégories et revient à se demander si la catégorie de relation ajoute véritablement une chose supplémentaire, la relation, dans la réalité. Cette question s'inscrit dans une représentation réaliste des relations : pour la plupart des auteurs du treizième et du quatorzième siècle, le fait que des choses soient réellement reliées entre elles ne fait pas de doute. Deux hommes de même taille sont bel et bien égaux, c'est-à-dire réellement reliés entre eux par une relation d'égalité. La difficulté est alors de comprendre comment ces choses sont reliées entre elles, ou encore, ce qu'est exactement cette relation dont il est alors question. Faut-il dire que l'égalité dans chacun des hommes de même taille est une nouvelle chose qui s'ajoute à la substance de chacun d'eux et aux accidents de taille, appartenant à la catégorie de quantité, sur lesquels ces relations d'égalité sont fondées ? Ou faut-il dire que l'égalité est réelle d'une autre manière, c'est-à-dire sans pour autant ajouter une nouvelle chose à ce à quoi elle advient ? Ce problème, qui se rencontre déjà dans les tensions existant entre les différents exposés qu'Aristote a consacrés à cette catégorie, a reçu de multiples réponses. Celles-ci nous éclairent sur la manière dont le réel est appréhendé au Moyen-Âge et sur les débats ontologiques de l'époque. Le travail ici résumé entreprend de délimiter précisément ces réponses et propose une manière de les classer. -- Realism about relations: study of the answers given to the problem of the difference between a relation and its foundation (1250-1350) Summary Whether relation is really distinct from its foundation or not is a question that can easily be found in medieval texts from the mid-thirteenth century onwards. It comes from an aristotelian background, the discussion about the categories, and asks if the category of relation really posits another thing, i.e. a relation, in reality. It results from a realist perspective on relations. In fact, most thirteenth and fourteenth century thinkers held without doubt that things outside the mind are really connected between them. Two men sharing the same height are really equal, that is, really linked to each other by a relation of equality. What is then left to understand is how these things are linked between them, or the exact nature of the aforementioned relation. Should we say that the equality in each of the equally sized men is a new thing that adds to the substance of each of them and to the accidents of height, belonging tho the category of quantity, on which these relations are founded? Or should we say that equality is real in another way, that is, without adding a new thing to the subject acquiring it? We can already find this issue in Aristotle himself, emerging from disagreeing texts devoted to this category. It received various answers that enable us to understand better how reality was defined in the Middle Age and some of the ontological debates of the time. The work that is here summed up attempts to precisely delineate these various answers and to provide a way of classifying them.

Colony-colony interactions between highly invasive ants

Among invasive species, ants are a particularly prominent group with enormous impacts on native biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Globalization and on-going climate change are likely to increase the rate of ant invasions in the future, leading to simultaneous introductions of several highly invasive species within the same area, Here, we investigate pairwise interactions among four highly invasive species, Linepithema humile,Lashis neglectus, Pheidole megacephala and Wasmannia auropunctata, at the whole colony level, using a laboratory set-up. :Each colony consisted of 300 workers and one queen. The number of surviving workers in the competing colonies was recorded daily over 7 weeks. We modelled the survival of each colony during pairwise colony interactions, using a nonlinear model characterizing the survival dynamics of each colony individually. The least dominant species was P. megacephala, which always went extinct. Interactions among the three other species showed more complex dynamics, rendering the outcome of the interactions less predictable. Overall, W auropunctata and L neglectus were the most dominant species. This study shows the importance of scaling up to the colony level in order to gain realism in predicting the outcome of multiple invasions.