Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

"Periodic crises": Clément Juglar between theories of crises and theories of business cycles

Business cycle theory is normally described as having evolved out of a previous tradition of writers focusing exclusively on crises. In this account, the turning point is seen as residing in Clément Juglar's contribution on commercial crises and their periodicity. It is well known that the champion of this view is Schumpeter, who propagated it on several occasions. The same author, however, pointed to a number of other writers who, before and at the same time as Juglar, stressed one or another of the aspects for which Juglar is credited primacy, including the recognition of periodicity and the identification of endogenous elements enabling the recognition of crises as a self-generating phenomenon. There is indeed a vast literature, both primary and secondary, relating to the debates on crises and fluctuations around the middle of the nineteenth century, from which it is apparent that Juglar's book Des Crises Commerciales et de leur Retour Périodique en France, en Angleterre et aux États-Unis (originally published in 1862 and very much revised and enlarged in 1889) did not come out of the blue but was one of the products of an intellectual climate inducing the thinking of crises not as unrelated events but as part of a more complex phenomenon consisting of recurring crises related to the development of the commercial world - an interpretation corroborated by the almost regular occurrence of crises at about 10-year intervals.

The Future of the Deuteronomistic History

The present debate on the so-called "Deuteronomistic History" has become quite confusing and in recent years more and more scholars are inclined to deny the existence of a Deuteronomistic History as elaborated by Martin Noth or at least to modify this thesis radically. The contributions in this volume reflect the present state of discussion about the Deuteronomistic History. With one exception they have all been presented and discussed in three special sessions dedicated to "Deuteronomism" during the SBL International Meeting in Lausanne (July 1997). Three topics were treated: "The Future of the Deuteronomistic History", "Identity and Literary Strategies of the Deuteronomists", "Deuteronomism and the Hebrew Bible". The contributors are: R. Albertz, A.G. Auld, M. Bauks, W. Dietrich, D. Edelman, F. Garcia Lopez, E.A. Knauf, G. Knoppers, S.K. McKenzie, C. Nihan, T.C. Römer, N.H. Rösel, J. Van Seters and J. Vermeylen. Each contribution offers a valuable entry into one of the most important discussions of Old Testament scholarship at the end of the twentieth century.

Forensic examination of ink by high-performance thin layer chromatography - The United States Secret Service Digital Ink Library

Forensic examinations of ink have been performed since the beginning of the 20th century. Since the 1960s, the International Ink Library, maintained by the United States Secret Service, has supported those analyses. Until 2009, the search and identification of inks were essentially performed manually. This paper describes the results of a project designed to improve ink samples' analytical and search processes. The project focused on the development of improved standardization procedures to ensure the best possible reproducibility between analyses run on different HPTLC plates. The successful implementation of this new calibration method enabled the development of mathematical algorithms and of a software package to complement the existing ink library.

Proteomics of blood and derived products: what's next?

Proteomics has changed the way proteins are analyzed in living systems. This approach has been applied to blood products and protein profiling has evolved in parallel with the development of techniques. The identification of proteins belonging to red blood cell, platelets or plasma was achieved at the end of the last century. Then, the questions on the applications emerged. Hence, several studies have focused on problems related to blood banking and products, such as the aging of blood products, identification of biomarkers, related diseases and the protein-protein interactions. More recently, a mass spectrometry-based proteomics approach to quality control has been applied in order to offer solutions and improve the quality of blood products. The current challenge we face is developing a closer relationship between transfusion medicine and proteomics. In this article, these issues will be approached by focusing first on the proteome identification of blood products and then on the applications and future developments within the field of proteomics and blood products.

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. FINDINGS: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. INTERPRETATION: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health.

The Institutional Foundations of Regulatory Capitalism: The Diffusion of Independent Regulatory Agencies in Western Europe

This article studies the diffusion of the main institutional feature of regulatory capitalism, namely, independent regulatory agencies. While only a few such authorities existed in Europe in the early 1980s, by the end of the twentieth century they had spread impressively across countries and sectors. The analysis finds that three classes of factors (bottom-up, top-down, and horizontal) explain this trend. First, the establishment of independent regulatory agencies was an attempt to improve credible commitment capacity when liberalizing and privatizing utilities and to alleviate the political uncertainty problem, namely, the risk to a government that its policies will be changed when it loses power. Second, Europeanization favored the creation of independent regulators. Third, individual decisions were interdependent, as governments were influenced by the decisions of others in an emulation process where the symbolic properties of independent regulators mattered more than the functions they performed.

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Unraveling the complex metabolic nature of astrocytes.

Since the initial description of astrocytes by neuroanatomists of the nineteenth century, a critical metabolic role for these cells has been suggested in the central nervous system. Nonetheless, it took several technological and conceptual advances over many years before we could start to understand how they fulfill such a role. One of the important and early recognized metabolic function of astrocytes concerns the reuptake and recycling of the neurotransmitter glutamate. But the description of this initial property will be followed by several others including an implication in the supply of energetic substrates to neurons. Indeed, despite the fact that like most eukaryotic non-proliferative cells, astrocytes rely on oxidative metabolism for energy production, they exhibit a prominent aerobic glycolysis capacity. Moreover, this unusual metabolic feature was found to be modulated by glutamatergic activity constituting the initial step of the neurometabolic coupling mechanism. Several approaches, including biochemical measurements in cultured cells, genetic screening, dynamic cell imaging, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and mathematical modeling, have provided further insights into the intrinsic characteristics giving rise to these key features of astrocytes. This review will provide an account of the different results obtained over several decades that contributed to unravel the complex metabolic nature of astrocytes that make this cell type unique.

The corrosion of career? Occupational trajectories of engineers and business economists in Switzerland

This doctoral thesis deals with the rise and potential fall of achievement career as an institutional biographical pattern. I start with the assumption that the achievement career, as a result of the spread of large-scale bureaucratic companies, the male-breadwinner family model, and meritocratic ideals, came to life in the first half of the twentieth century. During the so-called 30 glorieuses, it became even a normatively dominant and also politically significant male biographical pattern. But the structural changes that announced the end of the post-war golden age seemed also to threaten and-according to certain scholars-erode this type of occupational trajectory. In order to understand this dynamic I will try to reconstruct the achievement career in Switzerland empirically. I examine (1) the structural changes of the economic field from 1970 to 2000, (2) the transformations of the trajectories during this period, and (3) ways in which the concerned individuals interpret and react to these changes.

The politics of contaminated sites management : institutional regime change and actor's mode of participation in the environmental management of the Bonfol Chemical Waste Landfill in Switzerland

By the end of the 1970s, contaminated sites had emerged as one of the most complex and urgent environmental issues affecting industrialized countries. The authors show that small and prosperous Switzerland is no exception to the pervasive problem of sites contamination, the legacy of past practices in waste management having left some 38,000 contaminated sites throughout the country. This book outlines the problem, offering evidence that open and polycentric environmental decision-making that includes civil society actors is valuable. They propose an understanding of environmental management of contaminated sites as a political process in which institutions frame interactions between strategic actors pursuing sometimes conflicting interests. In the opening chapter, the authors describe the influences of politics and the power relationships between actors involved in decision-making in contaminated sites management, which they term a "wicked problem." Chapter Two offers a theoretical framework for understanding institutions and the environmental management of contaminated sites. The next five chapters present a detailed case study on environmental management and contaminated sites in Switzerland, focused on the Bonfol Chemical Landfill. The study and analysis covers the establishment of the landfill under the first generation of environmental regulations, its closure and early remediation efforts, and the gambling on the remediation objectives, methods and funding in the first decade of the 21st Century. The concluding chapter discusses the question of whether the strength of environmental regulations, and the type of interactions between public, private, and civil society actors can explain the environmental choices in contaminated sites management. Drawing lessons from research, the authors debate the value of institutional flexibility for dealing with environmental issues such as contaminated sites.

Analysis of susceptibility to human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) by comparative genetics

Summary [résumé français voir ci-dessous] From the beginning of the 20th century the world population has been confronted with the human immune deficiency virus 1 (HIV-1). This virus has the particularity to mutate fast, and could thus evade and adapt to the human host. Our closest evolutionary related organisms, the non-human primates, are less susceptible to HIV-1. In a broader sense, primates are differentially susceptible to various retrovirus. Species specificity may be due to genetic differences among primates. In the present study we applied evolutionary and comparative genetic techniques to characterize the evolutionary pattern of host cellular determinants of HIV-1 pathogenesis. The study of the evolution of genes coding for proteins participating to the restriction or pathogenesis of HIV-1 may help understanding the genetic basis of modern human susceptibility to infection. To perform comparative genetics analysis, we constituted a collection of primate DNA and RNA to allow generation of de novo sequence of gene orthologs. More recently, release to the public domain of two new primate complete genomes (bornean orang-utan and common marmoset) in addition of the three previously available genomes (human, chimpanzee and Rhesus monkey) help scaling up the evolutionary and comparative genome analysis. Sequence analysis used phylogenetic and statistical methods for detecting molecular adaptation. We identified different selective pressures acting on host proteins involved in HIV-1 pathogenesis. Proteins with HIV-1 restriction properties in non-human primates were under strong positive selection, in particular in regions of interaction with viral proteins. These regions carried key residues for the antiviral activity. Proteins of the innate immunity presented an evolutionary pattern of conservation (purifying selection) but with signals of relaxed constrain if we compared them to the average profile of purifying selection of the primate genomes. Large scale analysis resulted in patterns of evolutionary pressures according to molecular function, biological process and cellular distribution. The data generated by various analyses served to guide the ancestral reconstruction of TRIM5a a potent antiviral host factor. The resurrected TRIM5a from the common ancestor of Old world monkeys was effective against HIV-1 and the recent resurrected hominoid variants were more effective against other retrovirus. Thus, as the result of trade-offs in the ability to restrict different retrovirus, human might have been exposed to HIV-1 at a time when TRIM5a lacked the appropriate specific restriction activity. The application of evolutionary and comparative genetic tools should be considered for the systematical assessment of host proteins relevant in viral pathogenesis, and to guide biological and functional studies. Résumé La population mondiale est confrontée depuis le début du vingtième siècle au virus de l'immunodéficience humaine 1 (VIH-1). Ce virus a un taux de mutation particulièrement élevé, il peut donc s'évader et s'adapter très efficacement à son hôte. Les organismes évolutivement le plus proches de l'homme les primates nonhumains sont moins susceptibles au VIH-1. De façon générale, les primates répondent différemment aux rétrovirus. Cette spécificité entre espèces doit résider dans les différences génétiques entre primates. Dans cette étude nous avons appliqué des techniques d'évolution et de génétique comparative pour caractériser le modèle évolutif des déterminants cellulaires impliqués dans la pathogenèse du VIH- 1. L'étude de l'évolution des gènes, codant pour des protéines impliquées dans la restriction ou la pathogenèse du VIH-1, aidera à la compréhension des bases génétiques ayant récemment rendu l'homme susceptible. Pour les analyses de génétique comparative, nous avons constitué une collection d'ADN et d'ARN de primates dans le but d'obtenir des nouvelles séquences de gènes orthologues. Récemment deux nouveaux génomes complets ont été publiés (l'orang-outan du Bornéo et Marmoset commun) en plus des trois génomes déjà disponibles (humain, chimpanzé, macaque rhésus). Ceci a permis d'améliorer considérablement l'étendue de l'analyse. Pour détecter l'adaptation moléculaire nous avons analysé les séquences à l'aide de méthodes phylogénétiques et statistiques. Nous avons identifié différentes pressions de sélection agissant sur les protéines impliquées dans la pathogenèse du VIH-1. Des protéines avec des propriétés de restriction du VIH-1 dans les primates non-humains présentent un taux particulièrement haut de remplacement d'acides aminés (sélection positive). En particulier dans les régions d'interaction avec les protéines virales. Ces régions incluent des acides aminés clé pour l'activité de restriction. Les protéines appartenant à l'immunité inné présentent un modèle d'évolution de conservation (sélection purifiante) mais avec des traces de "relaxation" comparé au profil général de sélection purifiante du génome des primates. Une analyse à grande échelle a permis de classifier les modèles de pression évolutive selon leur fonction moléculaire, processus biologique et distribution cellulaire. Les données générées par les différentes analyses ont permis la reconstruction ancestrale de TRIM5a, un puissant facteur antiretroviral. Le TRIM5a ressuscité, correspondant à l'ancêtre commun entre les grands singes et les groupe des catarrhiniens, est efficace contre le VIH-1 moderne. Les TRIM5a ressuscités plus récents, correspondant aux ancêtres des grands singes, sont plus efficaces contre d'autres rétrovirus. Ainsi, trouver un compromis dans la capacité de restreindre différents rétrovirus, l'homme aurait été exposé au VIH-1 à une période où TRIM5a manquait d'activité de restriction spécifique contre celui-ci. L'application de techniques d'évolution et de génétique comparative devraient être considérées pour l'évaluation systématique de protéines impliquées dans la pathogenèse virale, ainsi que pour guider des études biologiques et fonctionnelles

The size and burden of mental disorders and other disorders of the brain in Europe 2010.

Aims: To provide 12-month prevalence and disability burden estimates of a broad range of mental and neurological disorders in the European Union (EU) and to compare these findings to previous estimates. Referring to our previous 2005 review, improved up-to-date data for the enlarged EU on a broader range of disorders than previously covered are needed for basic, clinical and public health research and policy decisions and to inform about the estimated number of persons affected in the EU. Method: Stepwise multi-method approach, consisting of systematic literature reviews, reanalyses of existing data sets, national surveys and expert consultations. Studies and data from all member states of the European Union (EU-27) plus Switzerland, Iceland and Norway were included. Supplementary information about neurological disorders is provided, although methodological constraints prohibited the derivation of overall prevalence estimates for mental and neurological disorders. Disease burden was measured by disability adjusted life years (DALY). Results: Prevalence: It is estimated that each year 38.2% of the EU population suffers from a mental disorder. Adjusted for age and comorbidity, this corresponds to 164.8 million persons affected. Compared to 2005 (27.4%) this higher estimate is entirely due to the inclusion of 14 new disorders also covering childhood/adolescence as well as the elderly. The estimated higher number of persons affected (2011: 165 m vs. 2005: 82 m) is due to coverage of childhood and old age populations, new disorders and of new EU membership states. The most frequent disorders are anxiety disorders (14.0%), insomnia (7.0%), major depression (6.9%), somatoform (6.3%), alcohol and drug dependence (>4%), ADHD (5%) in the young, and dementia (1-30%, depending on age). Except for substance use disorders and mental retardation, there were no substantial cultural or country variations. Although many sources, including national health insurance programs, reveal increases in sick leave, early retirement and treatment rates due to mental disorders, rates in the community have not increased with a few exceptions (i.e. dementia). There were also no consistent indications of improvements with regard to low treatment rates, delayed treatment provision and grossly inadequate treatment. Disability: Disorders of the brain and mental disorders in particular, contribute 26.6% of the total all cause burden, thus a greater proportion as compared to other regions of the world. The rank order of the most disabling diseases differs markedly by gender and age group; overall, the four most disabling single conditions were: depression, dementias, alcohol use disorders and stroke. Conclusion: In every year over a third of the total EU population suffers from mental disorders. The true size of "disorders of the brain" including neurological disorders is even considerably larger. Disorders of the brain are the largest contributor to the all cause morbidity burden as measured by DALY in the EU. No indications for increasing overall rates of mental disorders were found nor of improved care and treatment since 2005; less than one third of all cases receive any treatment, suggesting a considerable level of unmet needs. We conclude that the true size and burden of disorders of the brain in the EU was significantly underestimated in the past.Concerted priority action is needed at all levels, including substantially increased funding for basic, clinical and public health research in order to identify better strategies for improved prevention and treatment for isorders of the brain as the core health challenge of the 21st century. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prevention of age-associated dementia.

The advancement of medical sciences during the last century has resulted in a considerable increase in life expectancy. As more people live to old age, one of the most fundamental questions of the 21st century is whether the number of individuals suffering from dementia will also continue to increase. Alzheimer's disease (AD) accounts for the majority of cases of dementia in the elderly, but there is currently no curative treatment available. Several strategies have been introduced for treatment, the most recent strategy of which was the immunization of patients using antibodies against Abeta, which is a naturally occurring, even though misfolded peptide in the AD brain. Both active and passive immunization routes have been shown to reduce the pathology associated with Abeta accumulation in brains of genetically designed animal models. However, despite tremendous efforts, no unequivocal proof of therapeutic efficacy could be shown in AD patients. Particularly, the persistence of the neurofibrillary tangles in immunized brains and the issue of inducing cerebral amyloid angiopathy are major limiting factors of antibody therapy. Furthermore, physical activity, a healthy immune system and nutritional habits are suggested to protect against the onset of age-associated dementia. Thus, accumulative evidence suggests that an early integrated strategy, combining pharmacological, immunological, nutritional and life-style factors, is the most pragmatic approach to delay the onset and progression of age-associated dementia.