Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Detection of active oxalate-carbonate pathway ecosystems in the Amazon Basin: Global implications of a natural potential C sink

The oxalate-carbonate pathway (OCP) is a biogeochemical process, which has been described in Milicia excelsa tree ecosystems of Africa. This pathway involves biological and geological parameters at different scales: oxalate, as a by-product of photosynthesis, is oxidized by oxalotrophic bacteria leading to a local pH increase, and eventually to carbonate accumulation through time in previously acidic and carbonate-free tropical soils. Former studies have shown that this pedogenic process can potentially lead to the formation of an atmospheric carbon sink. Considering that 80% of plant species are known to produce oxalate, it is reasonable to assume that M. excelsa is not the only tree that can support OCP ecosystems. The search for similar conditions on another continent led us to South America, in an Amazon forest ecosystem (Alto Beni, Bolivia). This area was chosen because of the absence of local inherited carbonate in the bedrock, as well as its expected acidic soil conditions. Eleven tree species and associated soils were tested positive for the presence of carbonate with a more alkaline soil pH close to the tree than at a distance from it. A detailed study of Pentaplaris davidsmithii and Ceiba speciosa trees showed that oxalotrophy impacted soil pH in a similar way to at African sites (at least with 1 pH unit increasing). African and South American sites display similar characteristics regarding the mineralogical assemblage associated with the OCP, except for the absence of weddellite. The amount of carbonate accumulated is 3 to 4 times lower than the values measured in African sites related to M. excelsa ecosystems. Still, these secondary carbonates remain critical for the continental carbon cycle, as they are unexpected in the acidic context of Amazonian soils. Therefore, the present study demonstrates the existence of an active OCP in South America. The three critical components of an operating OCP are the presence of: i) local alkalinization, ii) carbonate accumulations, and iii) oxalotrophic bacteria, which were identified associated to the oxalogenic tree C. speciosa. If the question of a potential carbon sink related to oxalotrophic-oxalogenic ecosystems in the Amazon Basin is still pending, this study highlights the implication of OCP ecosystems on carbon and calcium biogeochemical coupled cycles. As previously mentioned for M. excelsa tree ecosystems in Africa, carbonate accumulations observed in the Bolivian tropical forest could be extrapolated to part or the whole Amazon Basin and might constitute an important reservoir that must be taken into account in the global carbon balance of the Tropics.

Plasma membrane cyclic nucleotide gated calcium channels control land plant thermal sensing and acquired thermotolerance.

Typically at dawn on a hot summer day, land plants need precise molecular thermometers to sense harmless increments in the ambient temperature to induce a timely heat shock response (HSR) and accumulate protective heat shock proteins in anticipation of harmful temperatures at mid-day. Here, we found that the cyclic nucleotide gated calcium channel (CNGC) CNGCb gene from Physcomitrella patens and its Arabidopsis thaliana ortholog CNGC2, encode a component of cyclic nucleotide gated Ca(2+) channels that act as the primary thermosensors of land plant cells. Disruption of CNGCb or CNGC2 produced a hyper-thermosensitive phenotype, giving rise to an HSR and acquired thermotolerance at significantly milder heat-priming treatments than in wild-type plants. In an aequorin-expressing moss, CNGCb loss-of-function caused a hyper-thermoresponsive Ca(2+) influx and altered Ca(2+) signaling. Patch clamp recordings on moss protoplasts showed the presence of three distinct thermoresponsive Ca(2+) channels in wild-type cells. Deletion of CNGCb led to a total absence of one and increased the open probability of the remaining two thermoresponsive Ca(2+) channels. Thus, CNGC2 and CNGCb are expected to form heteromeric Ca(2+) channels with other related CNGCs. These channels in the plasma membrane respond to increments in the ambient temperature by triggering an optimal HSR, leading to the onset of plant acquired thermotolerance.

On the origin of the ultradeep East Barents Sea basin

Very large subsidence, with up to 20 km thick sediment layers, is observed in the East Barents Sea basin. Subsidence started in early Paleozoic, accelerated in Permo-Triassic times, finished during the middle Cretaceous, and was followed by moderate uplift in Cenozoic times. The observed gravity signal suggests that the East Barents Sea is at present in isostatic balance and indicates that a mass excess is required in the lithosphere to produce the observed large subsidence. Several origins have been proposed for the mass excess. We use 1-D thermokinematic modeling and 2-D isostatic density models of continental lithosphere to evaluate these competing hypotheses. The crustal density in 2-D thermokinematic models resulting from pressure-, temperature-, and composition-dependent phase change models is computed along transects crossing the East Barents Sea. The results indicate the following. (1) Extension can only explain the observed subsidence provided that a 10 km thick serpentinized mantle lens beneath the basin center is present. We conclude that this is unlikely given that this highly serpentinized layer should be formed below a sedimentary basin with more than 10 km of sediments and crust at least 10 km thick. (2) Phase changes in a compositionally homogeneous crust do not provide enough mass excess to explain the present-day basin geometry. (3) Phase change induced densification of a preexisting lower crustal gabbroic body, interpreted as a mafic magmatic underplate, can explain the basin geometry and observed gravity anomalies. The following model is proposed for the formation of the East Barents Sea basin: (1) Devonian rifting and extension related magmatism resulted in moderate thinning of the crust and a mafic underplate below the central basin area explaining initial late Paleozoic subsidence. (2) East-west shortening during the Permian and Triassic resulted in densification of the previously emplaced mafic underplated body and enhanced subsidence dramatically, explaining the present-day deep basin geometry.

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The oldest Triassic platform margin reef from the Alpine - Carpathian region (Aggtelek, NE Hungary): platform evolution, reefal biota and biostratigraphic framework

The 1:10,000 scale mapping of the southern part of the Aggtelek Plateau (Western Carpathians, Silica Nappe, NE Hungary) and the study of five sections revealed two Middle Triassic reef bodies. In the late Pelsonian the uniform Steinalm Platform was drowned and dissected due to the Reifling Event. A connection with the open sea was established, indicated by the appearance of gladigondolellid conodonts from the early Illyrian. Basins and highs were formed. In the NW part of the studied area lower - middle? Illyrian basinal carbonates were followed by a platform margin reef (early? - middle Illyrian; reef stage 1) developed on a morphological high. This is the oldest known Triassic platform margin reef within the Alpine-Carpathian region. The reef association is dominated by sphinctozoans and microproblematics. The fossils are characteristic of the Wetterstein - type reef communities. Differently from this in the SE part of the studied region a basin existed from the late Pelsonian until the early Ladinian. During the late Illyrian - early Ladinian, the reef prograded to the SE, and reef stage 2 was established. Meanwhile, on the NW part of the platform a lagoon was formed behind the reef. Based on our palaeontological study the stratigraphic range of Colospongia catenulata, Follicatena cautica, Solenolmia manon manon, Vesicocaulis oenipontanus must be extended down to the middle Illyrian. Synsedimentary tectonics were detected in the 1. Binodosus Subzone, 2. Trinodosus Zone - the most part of the Reitzi Zone, 3. Avisianum Subzone.

Middle and Late Jurassic carbon stable-isotope stratigraphy and radiolarite sedimentation of the Umbria-Marche basin (Central Italy)

A continuous carbon isotope curve from Middle-Upper Jurassic pelagic carbonate rocks was acquired from two sections in the southern part of the Umbria-Marche Apennines in central Italy. At the Colle Bertone section (Terni) and the Terminilletto section (Rieti), the Upper Toarcian to Bajocian Calcari e Marne a Posidonia Formation and the Aalenian to Kimmeridgian Calcari e Marne a Posidonia and Calcari Diasprigni formations were sampled, respectively. Biostratigraphy in both sections is based on rich assemblages of calcareous nannofossils and radiolarians, as well as some ammonites found in the upper Toarcian-Bajocian interval. Both sections revealed a relative minimum of delta(13)C(PDB) close to + 2 parts per thousand in the Aalenian and a maximum around 3.5 parts per thousand in early Bajocian, associated with an increase in visible chert. In basinal sections in Umbria-Marche, this interval includes the very cherry base of the Calcari Diasprigni Formation (e.g. at Valdorbia) or the chert-rich uppermost portion of the Calcari a Posidonia (e.g at Bosso). In the Terminilletto section, the Bajocian-early Barthonian interval shows a gradual decrease in delta(13)C(PDB) values and a low around 2.3 parts per thousand. This part of the section is characterised by more than 40 m of almost chart-free limestones and correlates with a recurrence of limestone-rich facies in basinal sections at Valdorbia. A double peak with values of delta(13)C(PDB) around + 3 parts per thousand was observed in the Callovian and Oxfordian, constrained by well preserved radiolarian faunas. The maxima lie in the Callovian and the middle Oxfordian, and the minimum between the two peaks should be near the Callovian/Oxfordian boundary. In the Terminilletto section, visible chert increases together with delta(13)C(PDB) values from the middle Bathonian and reaches peak values in the Callovian-Oxfordian. In basinal sections in Umbria-Marche, a sharp increase in visible chert is observed at this level within the Calcari Diasprigni. A drop of delta(13)C values towards + 2 parts per thousand occurs in the Kimmeridgian and coincides with a decrease of visible chert in outcrop. The observed delta(13)C positive anomalies during the early Bajocian and the Callovian-Oxfordian may record changes in global climate towards warmer, more humid periods characterised by increased nutrient mobilisation and increased carbon burial. High biosiliceous (radiolarians, siliceous sponges) productivity and preservation appear to coincide with the delta(13)C positive anomalies, when the production of platform carbonates was subdued and ceased in many areas, with a drastic reduction of periplatform ooze input in many Tethyan basins. The carbon and silica cycles appear to be linked through global warming and increased continental weathering. Hydrothermal events related to extensive rifting and/or accelerated oceanic spreading may be the endogenic driving force that created a perturbation of the exogenic system (excess CO2 into the atmosphere and greenhouse conditions) reflected by the positive delta(13)C shifts and biosiliceous episodes.

Ecological and land use studies along elevational gradients

Mountain regions and UNESCO Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs) encapsulate broad elevational ranges, cover large gradients of geological, topographical and climatic diversity, and thus host greater biodiversity than the surrounding lowlands. Much of the biological richness in MBRs results from the interaction of climatic contrasts and gravitational forces along elevational gradients. External forces such as atmospheric change and human land use interact with these gradients, and result in distinct landscape patchiness, ie mosaics of land cover types within and across elevational belts. The management of MBRs influences land use and land cover, which affects biodiversity and ecosystem processes, both of which provide goods and services to society. Due to their broad environmental and biological diversity, MBRs are ideally suited for global change research and will be increasingly important in illustrating biodiversity conservation. This article summarizes the ecologically relevant results of an international workshop on elevational gradients that aimed to achieve a synthesis of the major ecosystem and biodiversity conditions and drivers in an altitude context. The workshop developed a core research agenda for MBRs that prioritizes long-term research and changes in land use across a broad elevational range.

Sr, C and O isotope systematics in the Pucara Basin, central Peru - Comparison between Mississippi Valley-type deposits and barren areas

A combined Sr, O and C isotope study has been carried out in the Pucara basin, central Peru, to compare local isotopic trends of the San Vicente and Shalipayco Zn-Pb Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) deposits with regional geochemical patterns of the sedimentary host basin. Gypsum, limestone and regional replacement dolomite yield Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios that fall within or slightly below the published range of seawater Sr-87/Sr-86 values for the Lower Jurassic and the Upper Triassic. Our data indicate that the Sr isotopic composition of seawater between the Hettangian and the Toarcian may extend to lower Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios than previously published values. An Sr-87-enrichment is noted in (1) carbonate rocks from the lowermost part of the Pucara basin, and (2) different carbonate generations at the MVT deposits. This indicates that host rocks at MVT deposits and in the lowermost part of the carbonate sequence interacted with Sr-87-enriched fluids. The fluids acquired their radiogenic nature by interaction with lithologies underlying the carbonate rocks of the Pucara basin. The San Ramon granite, similar Permo-Triassic intrusions and their elastic derivatives in the Mitu Group are likely sources of radiogenic Sr-87. The Brazilian shield and its erosion products are an additional potential source of radiogenic Sr-87. Volcanic rocks of the Mitu Group are not a significant source for radiogenic Sr-87; however, molasse-type sedimentary rocks and volcaniclastic rocks cannot be ruled out as a possible source of radiogenic Sr-87. The marked enrichment in Sr-87 of carbonates toward the lower part of the Pucara Group is accompanied by only a slight decrease in delta(18)O values and essentially no change in delta(13)C values, whereas replacement dolomite and sparry carbonates at the MVT deposits display a coherent trend of progressive Sr-87-enrichment, and O-18- and C-13-depletion. The depletion in O-18 in carbonates from the MVT deposits are likely related to a temperature increase, possibly coupled with a O-18-enrichment of the ore-forming fluids. Progressively lower delta(13)C values throughout the paragenetic sequence at the MVT deposits are interpreted as a gradually more important contribution from organically derived carbon. Quantitative calculations show that a single fluid-rock interaction model satisfactorily reproduces the marked Sr-87-enrichment and the slight decrease in delta(18)O values in carbonate rocks from the lower part of the Pucara Group. By contrast, the isotopic covariation trends of the MVT deposits are better reproduced by a model combining fluid mixing and fluid-rock interaction. The modelled ore-bearing fluids have a range of compositions between a hot, saline, radiogenic brine that had interacted with lithologies underlying the Pucara sequence and cooler, dilute brines possibly representing local fluids within the Pucara sequence. The composition of the local fluids varies according to the nature of the lithologies present in the neighborhood of the different MVT deposits. The proportion of the radiogenic fluid in the modelled fluid mixtures interacting with the carbonate host rocks at the MVT deposits decreases as one moves up in the stratigraphic sequence of the Pucara Group.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

The break-up of East Gondwana along the northeast coast of Oman: evidence from the Batain basin

Recent detailed studies on the Batain nappes (northeast coast of Oman), which represent a special part of the so-called `Oman Exotics', have led to a better understanding of the Neotethyan geodynamic evolution. The Batain Exotics bear witness to volcanic activity, sea-level changes, tectonic instability, rifting and oceanization along the Eastern Oman margin during Late Palaeozoic and Mesozoic times. They allow definition of the Batain basin as an aborted Permian branch of Neotethys. This marine basin was created in Early Permian times extending southward to the East African/Madagascar region and was linked to the Karoo rift system. The presented revised classification of the Batain nappes considers the Batain basin to be no longer a part of the Hawasina basin and the Neotethyan mat-gin proper. We attribute the Batain basin to a Mozambique-Sornali-Masirah rift system (Somoma). This system started in Early Permian, times, creating a marine basin between Arabia and India/Madagascar; rifting in the Late Triassic and oceanization during Late Jurassic times led to the separation of East Gondwana.

Detailed 3D seismic imaging of a fault zone beneath Lake Geneva, Switzerland

An efficient high-resolution (HR) three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection system for small-scale targets in lacustrine settings was developed. In Lake Geneva, near the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, the offshore extension of a complex fault zone well mapped on land was chosen for testing our system. A preliminary two-dimensional seismic survey indicated structures that include a thin (<40 m) layer of subhorizontal Quaternary sediments that unconformably overlie south-east-dipping Tertiary Molasse beds and a major fault zone (Paudeze Fault Zone) that separates Plateau and Subalpine Molasse (SM) units. A 3D survey was conducted over this test site using a newly developed three-streamer system. It provided high-quality data with a penetration to depths of 300 m below the water bottom of non-aliased signal for dips up to 30degrees and with a maximum vertical resolution of 1.1 m. The data were subjected to a conventional 3D processing sequence that included post-stack time migration. Tests with 3D pre-stack depth migration showed that such techniques can be applied to HR seismic surveys. Delineation of several horizons and fault surfaces reveals the potential for small-scale geologic and tectonic interpretation in three dimensions. Five major seismic facies and their detailed 3D geometries can be distinguished. Three fault surfaces and the top of a molasse surface were mapped in 3D. Analysis of the geometry of these surfaces and their relative orientation suggests that pre-existing structures within the Plateau Molasse (PM) unit influenced later faulting between the Plateau and SM. In particular, a change in strike of the PM bed dip may indicate a fold formed by a regional stress regime, the orientation of which was different from the one responsible for the creation of the Paudeze Fault Zone. This structure might have later influenced the local stress regime and caused the curved shape of the Paudeze Fault in our surveyed area.