Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Device-specific weighted T-score for two quantitative ultrasounds: operational propositions for the management of osteoporosis for 65 years and older women in Switzerland.

The World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for the diagnosis of osteoporosis are mainly applicable for dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements at the spine and hip levels. There is a growing demand for cheaper devices, free of ionizing radiation such as promising quantitative ultrasound (QUS). In common with many other countries, QUS measurements are increasingly used in Switzerland without adequate clinical guidelines. The T-score approach developed for DXA cannot be applied to QUS, although well-conducted prospective studies have shown that ultrasound could be a valuable predictor of fracture risk. As a consequence, an expert committee named the Swiss Quality Assurance Project (SQAP, for which the main mission is the establishment of quality assurance procedures for DXA and QUS in Switzerland) was mandated by the Swiss Association Against Osteoporosis (ASCO) in 2000 to propose operational clinical recommendations for the use of QUS in the management of osteoporosis for two QUS devices sold in Switzerland. Device-specific weighted "T-score" based on the risk of osteoporotic hip fractures as well as on the prediction of DXA osteoporosis at the hip, according to the WHO definition of osteoporosis, were calculated for the Achilles (Lunar, General Electric, Madison, Wis.) and Sahara (Hologic, Waltham, Mass.) ultrasound devices. Several studies (totaling a few thousand subjects) were used to calculate age-adjusted odd ratios (OR) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the prediction of osteoporotic fracture (taking into account a weighting score depending on the design of the study involved in the calculation). The ORs were 2.4 (1.9-3.2) and AUC 0.72 (0.66-0.77), respectively, for the Achilles, and 2.3 (1.7-3.1) and 0.75 (0.68-0.82), respectively, for the Sahara device. To translate risk estimates into thresholds for clinical application, 90% sensitivity was used to define low fracture and low osteoporosis risk, and a specificity of 80% was used to define subjects as being at high risk of fracture or having osteoporosis at the hip. From the combination of the fracture model with the hip DXA osteoporotic model, we found a T-score threshold of -1.2 and -2.5 for the stiffness (Achilles) determining, respectively, the low- and high-risk subjects. Similarly, we found a T-score at -1.0 and -2.2 for the QUI index (Sahara). Then a screening strategy combining QUS, DXA, and clinical factors for the identification of women needing treatment was proposed. The application of this approach will help to minimize the inappropriate use of QUS from which the whole field currently suffers.

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy with or without panitumumab in patients with wild-type KRAS, locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC): a randomized, multicenter, phase II trial SAKK 41/07.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a randomized, phase II, multicenter study to evaluate the anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mAb panitumumab (P) in combination with chemoradiotherapy (CRT) with standard-dose capecitabine as neoadjuvant treatment for wild-type KRAS locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with wild-type KRAS, T3-4 and/or N+ LARC were randomly assigned to receive CRT with or without P (6 mg/kg). The primary end-point was pathological near-complete or complete tumor response (pNC/CR), defined as grade 3 (pNCR) or 4 (pCR) histological regression by Dworak classification (DC). RESULTS: Forty of 68 patients were randomly assigned to P + CRT and 28 to CRT. pNC/CR was achieved in 21 patients (53%) treated with P + CRT [95% confidence interval (CI) 36%-69%] versus 9 patients (32%) treated with CRT alone (95% CI: 16%-52%). pCR was achieved in 4 (10%) and 5 (18%) patients, and pNCR in 17 (43%) and 4 (14%) patients. In immunohistochemical analysis, most DC 3 cells were not apoptotic. The most common grade ≥3 toxic effects in the P + CRT/CRT arm were diarrhea (10%/6%) and anastomotic leakage (15%/4%). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of panitumumab to neoadjuvant CRT in patients with KRAS wild-type LARC resulted in a high pNC/CR rate, mostly grade 3 DC. The results of both treatment arms exceeded prespecified thresholds. The addition of panitumumab increased toxicity.

Purification and activity standardisation of a (166m)Ho solution.

As part of a project to use the long-lived (T(1/2)=1200a) (166m)Ho as reference source in its reference ionisation chamber, IRA standardised a commercially acquired solution of this nuclide using the 4pibeta-gamma coincidence and 4pigamma (NaI) methods. The (166m)Ho solution supplied by Isotope Product Laboratories was measured to have about 5% Europium impurities (3% (154)Eu, 0.94% (152)Eu and 0.9% (155)Eu). Holmium had therefore to be separated from europium, and this was carried out by means of ion-exchange chromatography. The holmium fractions were collected without europium contamination: 162h long HPGe gamma measurements indicated no europium impurity (detection limits of 0.01% for (152)Eu and (154)Eu, and 0.03% for (155)Eu). The primary measurement of the purified (166m)Ho solution with the 4pi (PC) beta-gamma coincidence technique was carried out at three gamma energy settings: a window around the 184.4keV peak and gamma thresholds at 121.8 and 637.3keV. The results show very good self-consistency, and the activity concentration of the solution was evaluated to be 45.640+/-0.098kBq/g (0.21% with k=1). The activity concentration of this solution was also measured by integral counting with a well-type 5''x5'' NaI(Tl) detector and efficiencies computed by Monte Carlo simulations using the GEANT code. These measurements were mutually consistent, while the resulting weighted average of the 4pi NaI(Tl) method was found to agree within 0.15% with the result of the 4pibeta-gamma coincidence technique. An ampoule of this solution and the measured value of the concentration were submitted to the BIPM as a contribution to the Système International de Référence.

Comparative cost-effectiveness analyses of cardiovascular magnetic resonance and coronary angiography combined with fractional flow reserve for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: According to recent guidelines, patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) should undergo revascularization if significant myocardial ischemia is present. Both, cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and fractional flow reserve (FFR) allow for a reliable ischemia assessment and in combination with anatomical information provided by invasive coronary angiography (CXA), such a work-up sets the basis for a decision to revascularize or not. The cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies is compared. METHODS: Strategy 1) CMR to assess ischemia followed by CXA in ischemia-positive patients (CMR + CXA), Strategy 2) CXA followed by FFR in angiographically positive stenoses (CXA + FFR). The costs, evaluated from the third party payer perspective in Switzerland, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US), included public prices of the different outpatient procedures and costs induced by procedural complications and by diagnostic errors. The effectiveness criterion was the correct identification of hemodynamically significant coronary lesion(s) (= significant CAD) complemented by full anatomical information. Test performances were derived from the published literature. Cost-effectiveness ratios for both strategies were compared for hypothetical cohorts with different pretest likelihood of significant CAD. RESULTS: CMR + CXA and CXA + FFR were equally cost-effective at a pretest likelihood of CAD of 62% in Switzerland, 65% in Germany, 83% in the UK, and 82% in the US with costs of CHF 5'794, euro 1'517, £ 2'680, and $ 2'179 per patient correctly diagnosed. Below these thresholds, CMR + CXA showed lower costs per patient correctly diagnosed than CXA + FFR. CONCLUSIONS: The CMR + CXA strategy is more cost-effective than CXA + FFR below a CAD prevalence of 62%, 65%, 83%, and 82% for the Swiss, the German, the UK, and the US health care systems, respectively. These findings may help to optimize resource utilization in the diagnosis of CAD.

Task force IV: Clinical use of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Participants of the 1999 Consensus Conference on Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring

OBJECTIVE: To reach a consensus on the clinical use of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). METHODS: A task force on the clinical use of ABPM wrote this overview in preparation for the Seventh International Consensus Conference (23-25 September 1999, Leuven, Belgium). This article was amended to account for opinions aired at the conference and to reflect the common ground reached in the discussions. POINTS OF CONSENSUS: The Riva Rocci/Korotkoff technique, although it is prone to error, is easy and cheap to perform and remains worldwide the standard procedure for measuring blood pressure. ABPM should be performed only with properly validated devices as an accessory to conventional measurement of blood pressure. Ambulatory recording of blood pressure requires considerable investment in equipment and training and its use for screening purposes cannot be recommended. ABPM is most useful for identifying patients with white-coat hypertension (WCH), also known as isolated clinic hypertension, which is arbitrarily defined as a clinic blood pressure of more than 140 mmHg systolic or 90 mmHg diastolic in a patient with daytime ambulatory blood pressure below 135 mmHg systolic and 85 mmHg diastolic. Some experts consider a daytime blood pressure below 130 mmHg systolic and 80 mmHg diastolic optimal. Whether WCH predisposes subjects to sustained hypertension remains debated. However, outcome is better correlated to the ambulatory blood pressure than it is to the conventional blood pressure. Antihypertensive drugs lower the clinic blood pressure in patients with WCH but not the ambulatory blood pressure, and also do not improve prognosis. Nevertheless, WCH should not be left unattended. If no previous cardiovascular complications are present, treatment could be limited to follow-up and hygienic measures, which should also account for risk factors other than hypertension. ABPM is superior to conventional measurement of blood pressure not only for selecting patients for antihypertensive drug treatment but also for assessing the effects both of non-pharmacological and of pharmacological therapy. The ambulatory blood pressure should be reduced by treatment to below the thresholds applied for diagnosing sustained hypertension. ABPM makes the diagnosis and treatment of nocturnal hypertension possible and is especially indicated for patients with borderline hypertension, the elderly, pregnant women, patients with treatment-resistant hypertension and patients with symptoms suggestive of hypotension. In centres with sufficient financial resources, ABPM could become part of the routine assessment of patients with clinic hypertension. For patients with WCH, it should be repeated at annual or 6-monthly intervals. Variation of blood pressure throughout the day can be monitored only by ABPM, but several advantages of the latter technique can also be obtained by self-measurement of blood pressure, a less expensive method that is probably better suited to primary practice and use in developing countries. CONCLUSIONS: ABPM or equivalent methods for tracing the white-coat effect should become part of the routine diagnostic and therapeutic procedures applied to treated and untreated patients with elevated clinic blood pressures. Results of long-term outcome trials should better establish the advantage of further integrating ABPM as an accessory to conventional sphygmomanometry into the routine care of hypertensive patients and should provide more definite information on the long-term cost-effectiveness. Because such trials are not likely to be funded by the pharmaceutical industry, governments and health insurance companies should take responsibility in this regard.

Discharge properties of single neurons in the dorsal nucleus of the lateral lemniscus of the rat.

The aim of the present study was to characterize the discharge properties of single neurons in the dorsal nucleus of the lateral lemniscus (DNLL) of the rat. In the absence of acoustic stimulation, two types of spontaneous discharge patterns were observed: units tended to fire in a bursting or in a nonbursting mode. The distribution of units in the DNLL based on spontaneous firing rate followed a rostrocaudal gradient: units with high spontaneous rates were most commonly located in the rostral part of the DNLL, whereas in the caudal part units had lower spontaneous discharge rates. The most common response pattern of DNLL units to 200 ms binaural noise bursts contained a prominent onset response followed by a lower but steady-state response and an inhibitory response in the early-off period. Thresholds of response to noise bursts were on average higher for DNLL units than for units recorded in the inferior colliculus under the same experimental conditions. The DNLL units were arranged according to a mediolateral sensitivity gradient with the lowest threshold units in the most lateral part of the nucleus. In the rat, as in other mammals, the most common DNLL binaural input type was an excitatory response to contralateral ear stimulation and inhibitory response to ipsilateral ear stimulation (EI type). Pure tone bursts were in general a more effective stimulus compared to noise bursts. Best frequency (BF) was established for 97 DNLL units and plotted according to their spatial location. The DNLL exhibits a loose tonotopic organization, where there is a concentric pattern with high BF units located in the most dorsal and ventral parts of the DNLL and lower BF units in the middle part of the nucleus.

Inter-informant agreement and prevalence estimates for substance use disorders: direct interview versus family history method.

OBJECTIVES: Family studies typically use multiple sources of information on each individual including direct interviews and family history information. The aims of the present study were to: (1) assess agreement for diagnoses of specific substance use disorders between direct interviews and the family history method; (2) compare prevalence estimates according to the two methods; (3) test strategies to approximate prevalence estimates according to family history reports to those based on direct interviews; (4) determine covariates of inter-informant agreement; and (5) identify covariates that affect the likelihood of reporting disorders by informants. METHODS: Analyses were based on family study data which included 1621 distinct informant (first-degree relatives and spouses) - index subject pairs. RESULTS: Our main findings were: (1) inter-informant agreement was fair to good for all substance disorders, except for alcohol abuse; (2) the family history method underestimated the prevalence of drug but not alcohol use disorders; (3) lowering diagnostic thresholds for drug disorders and combining multiple family histories increased the accuracy of prevalence estimates for these disorders according to the family history method; (4) female sex of index subjects was associated with higher agreement for nearly all disorders; and (5) informants who themselves had a history of the same substance use disorder were more likely to report this disorder in their relatives, which entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation. CONCLUSION: Our findings have important implications for the best-estimate procedure applied in family studies.

Quantifying uncertainty: physicians' estimates of infection in critically ill neonates and children.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of physicians' prior probability estimates of serious infection in critically ill neonates and children, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 2 intensive care units. Using available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, 27 physicians provided 2567 probability estimates for 347 patients (follow-up rate, 92%). The median probability estimate of infection increased from 0% (i.e., no antibiotic treatment or diagnostic work-up for sepsis), to 2% on the day preceding initiation of antibiotic therapy, to 20% at initiation of antibiotic treatment (P<.001). At initiation of treatment, predictions discriminated well between episodes subsequently classified as proven infection and episodes ultimately judged unlikely to be infection (area under the curve, 0.88). Physicians also showed a good ability to predict blood culture-positive sepsis (area under the curve, 0.77). Treatment and testing thresholds were derived from the provided predictions and treatment rates. Physicians' prognoses regarding the presence of serious infection were remarkably precise. Studies investigating the value of new tests for diagnosis of sepsis should establish that they add incremental value to physicians' judgment.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.

Estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a comparison of several risk scores: the Cohorte Lausannoise study.

To compare in the Swiss population the results of several scores estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This was a single-center, cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall, 3,251 women and 2,937 men, aged 35-75 years, were assessed, of which 5,760 (93%) were free from diabetes and included in the current study. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes was assessed using seven different risk scores, including clinical data with or without biological data. Participants were considered to be eligible for primary prevention according to the thresholds provided for each score. The results were then extrapolated to the Swiss population of the same sex and age. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased with age in all scores. The prevalence of participants at high risk ranged between 1.6 and 24.9% in men and between 1.1 and 15.7% in women. Extrapolated to the Swiss population of similar age, the overall number of participants at risk, and thus susceptible to intervention, ranged between 46,708 and 636,841. In addition, scores that included the same clinical variables led to a significantly different prevalence of participants at risk (4.2% [95% CI 3.4-5.0] vs. 12.8% [11.5-14.1] in men and 2.9% [2.4-3.6] vs. 6.0% [5.2-6.9] in women). CONCLUSIONS; The prevalence of participants at risk for developing type 2 diabetes varies considerably according to the scoring system used. To adequately prevent type 2 diabetes, risk-scoring systems must be validated for each population considered.

Activation of the heat shock response in plants by chlorophenols: transgenic Physcomitrella patens as a sensitive biosensor for organic pollutants.

The ability to detect early molecular responses to various chemicals is central to the understanding of biological impact of pollutants in a context of varying environmental cues. To monitor stress responses in a model plant, we used transgenic moss Physcomitrella patens expressing the beta-glucuronidase reporter (GUS) under the control of the stress-inducible promoter hsp17.3B. Following exposure to pollutants from the dye and paper industry, GUS activity was measured by monitoring a fluorescent product. Chlorophenols, heavy metals and sulphonated anthraquinones were found to specifically activate the hsp17.3B promoter (within hours) in correlation with long-term toxicity effects (within days). At mildly elevated physiological temperatures, the chemical activation of this promoter was strongly amplified, which considerably increased the sensitivity of the bioassay. Together with the activation of hsp17.3B promoter, chlorophenols induced endogenous chaperones that transiently protected a recombinant thermolabile luciferase (LUC) from severe heat denaturation. This sensitive bioassay provides an early warning molecular sensor to industrial pollutants under varying environments, in anticipation to long-term toxic effects in plants. Because of the strong cross-talk between abiotic and chemical stresses that we find, this P. patens line is more likely to serve as a direct toxicity bioassay for pollutants combined with environmental cues, than as an indicator of absolute toxicity thresholds for various pollutants. It is also a powerful tool to study the role of heat shock proteins (HSPs) in plants exposed to combined chemical and environmental stresses.

Population pharmacokinetic modelling and evaluation of different dosage regimens for darunavir and ritonavir in HIV-infected individuals.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir is a protease inhibitor that is administered with low-dose ritonavir to enhance its bioavailability. It is prescribed at standard dosage regimens of 600/100 mg twice daily in treatment-experienced patients and 800/100 mg once daily in naive patients. A population pharmacokinetic approach was used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of both drugs and their interaction in a cohort of unselected patients and to compare darunavir exposure expected under alternative dosage regimens. METHODS: The study population included 105 HIV-infected individuals who provided darunavir and ritonavir plasma concentrations. Firstly, a population pharmacokinetic analysis for darunavir and ritonavir was conducted, with inclusion of patients' demographic, clinical and genetic characteristics as potential covariates (NONMEM(®)). Then, the interaction between darunavir and ritonavir was studied while incorporating levels of both drugs into different inhibitory models. Finally, model-based simulations were performed to compare trough concentrations (Cmin) between the recommended dosage regimen and alternative combinations of darunavir and ritonavir. RESULTS: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption adequately characterized darunavir and ritonavir pharmacokinetics. The between-subject variability in both compounds was important [coefficient of variation (CV%) 34% and 47% for darunavir and ritonavir clearance, respectively]. Lopinavir and ritonavir exposure (AUC) affected darunavir clearance, while body weight and darunavir AUC influenced ritonavir elimination. None of the tested genetic variants showed any influence on darunavir or ritonavir pharmacokinetics. The simulations predicted darunavir Cmin much higher than the IC50 thresholds for wild-type and protease inhibitor-resistant HIV-1 strains (55 and 550 ng/mL, respectively) under standard dosing in >98% of experienced and naive patients. Alternative regimens of darunavir/ritonavir 1200/100 or 1200/200 mg once daily also had predicted adequate Cmin (>550 ng/mL) in 84% and 93% of patients, respectively. Reduction of darunavir/ritonavir dosage to 600/50 mg twice daily led to a 23% reduction in average Cmin, still with only 3.8% of patients having concentrations below the IC50 for resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: The important variability in darunavir and ritonavir pharmacokinetics is poorly explained by clinical covariates and genetic influences. In experienced patients, treatment simplification strategies guided by drug level measurements and adherence monitoring could be proposed.

Effect of changes in the deuterium content of drinking water on the hydrogen isotope ratio of urinary steroids in the context of sports drug testing.

The hydrogen isotope ratio (HIR) of body water and, therefore, of all endogenously synthesized compounds in humans, is mainly affected by the HIR of ingested drinking water. As a consequence, the entire organism and all of its synthesized substrates will reflect alterations in the isotope ratio of drinking water, which depends on the duration of exposure. To investigate the effect of this change on endogenous urinary steroids relevant to doping-control analysis the hydrogen isotope composition of potable water was suddenly enriched from -50 to 200 0/00 and maintained at this level for two weeks for two individuals. The steroids under investigation were 5β-pregnane-3α,20α-diol, 5α-androst-16-en-3α-ol, 3α-hydroxy-5α-androstan-17-one (ANDRO), 3α-hydroxy-5β-androstan-17-one (ETIO), 5α-androstane-3α,17β-diol, and 5β-androstane-3α,17β-diol (excreted as glucuronides) and ETIO, ANDRO and 3β-hydroxyandrost-5-en-17-one (excreted as sulfates). The HIR of body water was estimated by determination of the HIR of total native urine, to trace the induced changes. The hydrogen in steroids is partly derived from the total amount of body water and cholesterol-enrichment could be calculated by use of these data. Although the sum of changes in the isotopic composition of body water was 150 0/00, shifts of approximately 30 0/00 were observed for urinary steroids. Parallel enrichment in their HIR was observed for most of the steroids, and none of the differences between the HIR of individual steroids was elevated beyond recently established thresholds. This finding is important to sports drug testing because it supports the intended use of this novel and complementary methodology even in cases where athletes have drunk water of different HIR, a plausible and, presumably, inevitable scenario while traveling.

Recombinant " Physcomitrella patens " as a sensitive tool to study heat sensing and heat-shock signal transduction in plants

SUMMARY When exposed to heat stress, plants display a particular set of cellular and molecular responses, such as chaperones expression, which are highly conserved in all organisms. In chapter 1, I studied the ability of heat shock genes to become transiently and abundantly induced under various temperature regimes. To this aim, I designed a highly sensitive heat-shock dependent conditional gene expression system in the moss Physcomitrella patens, using the soybean heatinducible promoter (hsp17.3B). Heat-induced expression of various reporter genes was over three orders of magnitude, in tight correlation with the intensity and duration of the heat treatments. By performing repeated heating/cooling cycles, a massive accumulation of recombinant proteins was obtained. Interestingly, the hsp17.3B promoter was also activated by specific organic chemicals. Thus, in chapter 2, I took advantage of the extreme sensitivity of this promoter to small temperature variations to further address the role of various natural and organic chemicals and develop a plant based-bioassay that can serve as an early warning indicator of toxicity by pollutants and heavy metals. A screen of several organic pollutants from textile and paper industry showed that chlorophenols as well as sulfonated anthraquinones elicited a heat shock like response at noninducing temperatures. Their effects were synergistically amplified by mild elevated temperatures. In contrast to standard methods of pollutant detection, this plant-based biosensor allowed to monitor early stress-responses, in correlation with long-term toxic effect, and to attribute effective toxicity thresholds for pollutants, in a context of varying environmental cues. In chapter 3, I deepened the study of the primary mechanism by which plants sense mild temperature variations and trigger a cellular signal leading to the heat shock response. In addition to the above described heat-inducible reporter line, I generated a P. patens transgenic line to measure, in vivo, variations of cytosolic calcium during heat treatment, and another line to monitor the role of protein unfolding in heat-shock sensing and signalling. The heat shock signalling pathway was found to be triggered by the plasma membrane, where temperature up shift specifically induced the transient opening of a putative high afimity calcium channel. The calcium influx triggered a signalling cascade leading to the activation of the heat shock genes, independently on the presence of misfolded proteins in the cytoplasm. These results strongly suggest that changes in the fluidity of the plasma membrane are the primary trigger of the heatshocksignalling pathway in plants. The present thesis contributes to the understanding of the basic mechanism by which plants perceive and respond to heat and chemical stresses. This may contribute to developing appropriate better strategies to enhance plant productivity under the increasingly stressful environment of global warming. RÉSUME Les plantes exposées à des températures élevées déclenchent rapidement des réponses cellulaires qui conduisent à l'induction de gènes codant pour les heat shock proteins (HSPs). En fonction de la durée d'exposition et de la vitesse à laquelle la température augmente, les HSPs sont fortement et transitoirement induites. Dans le premier chapitre, cette caractéristique aété utilisée pour développer un système inductible d'expression de gènes dans la mousse Physcomitrella patens. En utilisant plusieurs gènes rapporteurs, j'ai montré que le promoteur du gène hsp17.3B du Soja est activé d'une manière. homogène dans tous les tissus de la mousse proportionnellement à l'intensité du heat shock physiologique appliqué. Un très fort taux de protéines recombinantes peut ainsi être produit en réalisant plusieurs cycles induction/recovery. De plus, ce promoteur peut également être activé par des composés organiques, tels que les composés anti-inflammatoires, ce qui constitue une bonne alternative à l'induction par la chaleur. Les HSPs sont induites pour remédier aux dommages cellulaires qui surviennent. Étant donné que le promoteur hsp17.3B est très sensible à des petites augmentations de température ainsi qu'à des composés chimiques, j'ai utilisé les lignées développées dans le chapitre 1 pour identifier des polluants qui déclenchent une réaction de défense impliquant les HSPs. Après un criblage de plusieurs composés, les chlorophénols et les antraquinones sulfonés ont été identifiés comme étant activateurs du promoteur de stress. La détection de leurs effets a été réalisée seulement après quelques heures d'exposition et corrèle parfaitement avec les effets toxiques détectés après de longues périodes d'exposition. Les produits identifiés montrent aussi un effet synergique avec la température, ce qui fait du biosensor développé dans ce chapitre un bon outil pour révéler les effets réels des polluants dans un environnement où les stress chimiques sont combinés aux stress abiotiques. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'étude des mécanismes précoces qui permettent aux plantes de percevoir la chaleur et ainsi de déclencher une cascade de signalisation spécifique qui aboutit à l'induction des gènes HSPs. J'ai généré deux nouvelles lignées afin de mesurer en temps réel les changements de concentrations du calcium cytosolique ainsi que l'état de dénaturation des protéines au cours du heat shock. Quand la fluidité de la membrane augmente après élévation de la température, elle semble induire l'ouverture d'un canal qui permet de faire entrer le calcium dans les cellules. Ce dernier initie une cascade de signalisation qui finit par activer la transcription des gènes HSPs indépendamment de la dénaturation de protéines cytoplasmiques. Les résultats présentés dans ce chapitre montrent que la perception de la chaleur se fait essentiellement au niveau de la membrane plasmique qui joue un rôle majeur dans la régulation des gènes HSPs. L'élucidation des mécanismes par lesquels les plantes perçoivent les signaux environnementaux est d'une grande utilité pour le développement de nouvelles stratégies afin d'améliorer la productivité des plantes soumises à des conditions extrêmes. La présente thèse contribue à décortiquer la voie de signalisation impliquée dans la réponse à la chaleur.