Sulfur and strontium isotope composition of the Llobregat River (NE Spain): Tracers of natural and anthropogenic chemicals in stream waters

The use of sulfur and strontium isotopes as tracers for the source/s of water contaminants have been applied to the water of the Llobregat River system (NE Spain). Surface water samples from June 1997 were collected from the Llobregat River and its main tributaries and creeks. The chemistry of most stream waters are controlled mainly by the weathering of Tertiary chemical sediments within the drainage basin. The largest variation in delta(34)S values were found in the small creeks with values ranging from -9.9 to 15parts per thousand, whilst in the main river channels values ranged from 6.3 to 12.4parts per thousand. The Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio for dissolved strontium ranged from 0.70795 for a non-polluted site to 0.70882 for a polluted one. Most of the waters with high NO3 and low Ca/Na ratio converge to the same Sr-87/Sr-86 value, pointing to dominant pollutant end member contribution or a mixing of pollutants with an isotopic composition around 0.7083-0.7085. Although the concentration of the natural inputs in the river for sulfate and strontium are high, as a result of the sulfate outcrops within the geology of the basin, their isotopic characteristics suggest that they can be used as a discriminating device in water pollution problems. However to establish the detailed characteristics of the isotopes as geochemical tools, specific high-resolution case studies are necessary in small areas, where the inputs are well known.

Genetics of narcolepsy and other major sleep disorders.

One third of the population is affected by a sleep disorder with a major social, medical, and economic impact. Although very little is known about the genetics of normal sleep, familial and twin studies indicate an important influence of genetic factors. Most sleep disorders run in families and in several of them the contribution of genetic factors is increasingly recognised. With recent advances in the genetics of narcolepsy and the role of the hypocretin/orexin system, the possibility that other gene defects may contribute to the pathophysiology of major sleep disorders is worth indepth investigation.

Interchange of callosal and association projections in the developing visual cortex.

Neurons projecting transitorily into the corpus callosum from area 17 of the cat were retrogradely labeled by the fluorescent tracer Fast Blue (FB) injected into contralateral areas 17 and 18 on postnatal days 1-5. During the second postnatal month these neurons were still labeled by the early injection, although they had eliminated their callosal axon. At this time, 15-20% of these neurons could be retrogradely relabeled by injections of Diamidino Yellow (DY) into ipsilateral areas 17 and 18, but few or none by similar injections in the other areas that receive from area 17 (19, 21a, PMLS, 20a, 20b, DLS). Similarly, area 17 neurons projecting transitorily to contralateral area PMLS during the first postnatal week could be relabeled by DY injections in ipsilateral areas 17 and 18 but not in PMLS. Already around birth, many transitorily callosal neurons in area 17 send bifurcating axons both to contralateral areas 17 and 18 and ipsilateral area 18. It is probable that during postnatal development some of these neurons selectively eliminate their callosal axon collaterals and maintain the projection to ipsilateral area 18. In fact, some transitorily callosal neurons in area 17 can be double-labeled by simultaneous perinatal injections of FB in contralateral areas 17 and 18 and of a new long-lasting retrograde tracer, rhodamine-conjugated latex microspheres, in ipsilateral area 18. The same neurons can then be relabeled by reinjecting ipsilateral area 18 with DY during the second postnatal month. This finding, however, does not exclude the possibility that some transitorily callosal neurons send an axon to ipsilateral area 18 after eliminating their callosal axon. In conclusion, area 17 neurons that project transitorily through the corpus callosum later participate, probably permanently, in ipsilateral corticocortical projections but selectively to areas 17-18. The mechanism responsible for this selectivity is unknown, but it may be related to the differential radial distribution (i.e., to birth date) of area 17 neurons engaged in the various corticocortical projections. The problems raised by the use of long-lasting retrograde fluorescent tracers in neurodevelopmental studies and by the quantification of results of double- and triple-labeling paradigms are also discussed.

From Translation to Rewriting : the Interplay of Text and Image in The Fairy Tales of Charles Perrault and The Bloody Chamber and Other Stories

Abstract :This article examines the interplay of text and image in The Fairy Tales of Charles Perrault (1977), translated by Angela Carter and illustrated by Martin Ware, as a form of intersemiotic dialogue that sheds new light on Carter's work. It argues that Ware's highly original artwork based on the translation not only calls into question the association of fairy tales with children's literature (which still characterizes Carter's translation), but also captures an essential if heretofore neglected aspect of Carter's creative process, namely the dynamics between translating, illustrating and rewriting classic tales. Several elements from Ware's illustrations are indeed taken up and elaborated on in The Bloody Chamber and Other Stories (1979), the collection of "stories about fairy stories" that made Carter famous. These include visual details and strategies that she transposed to the realm of writing, giving rise to reflections on the relation between visuality and textuality.RésuméCet article considère l'interaction du texte et de l'image dans les contes de Perrault traduits par Angela Carter et illustrés par Martin Ware (The Fairy Tales of Charles Perrault, 1977) comme une forme de dialogue intersémiotique particulièrement productif. Il démontre que les illustrations originales de Ware ne mettent pas seulement en question l'assimilation des contes à la littérature de jeunesse (qui est encore la perspective adoptée par la traductrice dans ce livre), mais permettent aussi de saisir un aspect essentiel bien que jusque là ignoré du procession de création dans l'oeuvre de Carter, à savoir la dynamique qui lie la traduction, l'illustration et la réécriture des contes classiques. Plusieurs éléments des illustrations de Ware sont ainsi repris et élaborés dans The Bloody Chamber and Other Stories (1979), la collection de "stories about fairy stories" qui rendit Carter célèbre. La transposition de détails et de stratégies visuelles dans l'écriture donnent ainsi l'occasion de réflexions sur les rapports entre la visualité et la textualité.

Revised definitions of invasive fungal disease from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Invasive Fungal Infections Cooperative Group and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) Consensus Group.

BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal diseases are important causes of morbidity and mortality. Clarity and uniformity in defining these infections are important factors in improving the quality of clinical studies. A standard set of definitions strengthens the consistency and reproducibility of such studies. METHODS: After the introduction of the original European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Invasive Fungal Infections Cooperative Group and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) Consensus Group definitions, advances in diagnostic technology and the recognition of areas in need of improvement led to a revision of this document. The revision process started with a meeting of participants in 2003, to decide on the process and to draft the proposal. This was followed by several rounds of consultation until a final draft was approved in 2005. This was made available for 6 months to allow public comment, and then the manuscript was prepared and approved. RESULTS: The revised definitions retain the original classifications of "proven," "probable," and "possible" invasive fungal disease, but the definition of "probable" has been expanded, whereas the scope of the category "possible" has been diminished. The category of proven invasive fungal disease can apply to any patient, regardless of whether the patient is immunocompromised, whereas the probable and possible categories are proposed for immunocompromised patients only. CONCLUSIONS: These revised definitions of invasive fungal disease are intended to advance clinical and epidemiological research and may serve as a useful model for defining other infections in high-risk patients.

Risk factors of obesity and their determinants in preschool children (the Swiss Ballabeina study)

This thesis has been conducted in the context of a lifestyle intervention in 40 Swiss kindergarten classes in the cantons St. Gallen and Vaud, in areas with a high migrant prevalence (Ballabeina study). The main objective of this work was to fill certain gaps of the literature and to bring a better understanding of the risk factors of overweight and obesity and their determinants in preschool children. Our data show that parental migrant status and educational level influence independently of each other adiposity and/or eating habits in these children. In addition, sports club participation at this young age seems to be a better indicator of healthy lifestyle characteristics in terms of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and eating habits than weight status. Finally, we found that in this population higher scores of hyperactivity/inattention are associated with lower adiposity and with both healthy (more physical activity and less sedentary activity) and unhealthy (more television viewing and more unhealthy eating habits) lifestyle characteristics. Thus, our findings can be used by different actors of health and education system to better target their preventive actions and can serve as a basis for future complementary researches. - Cette thèse a été réalisée dans le cadre d'un projet de promotion de la santé mené dans 40 classes enfantines suisses issues de régions à forte prévalence migrante des cantons de St. Gall et de Vaud (étude Ballabeina). L'objectif principal de ce travail était de combler certaines lacunes de la littérature et d'approfondir nos connaissances sur les facteurs de risque du surpoids et de l'obésité et de leurs déterminants chez les enfants d'âge préscolaire. Nos analyses montrent que le statut de migrant des parents et leur niveau d'éducation influencent indépendamment l'un de l'autres l'adiposité et les habitudes alimentaires chez ces enfants. De plus, à ce jeune âge la participation dans un club de sport semble être un meilleur indicateur de style de vie sain en termes d'activité physique, de comportements sédentaires et d'habitudes alimentaires que le statut pondéral. Nous avons également trouvé que dans cette population, un score plus élevé d'hyperactivité/inattention est associé aussi bien à des caractéristiques de style de vie saines (plus d'activité physique, moins d'activité sédentaire) que malsaines (plus de consommation de télévision et moins bonnes habitudes alimentaire. Ainsi, nos résultats peuvent aider les différents acteurs de la santé et de l'éducation à mieux cibler leurs actions de prévention et servir de base à de futures recherches complémentaires.

The size and burden of mental disorders and other disorders of the brain in Europe 2010.

Aims: To provide 12-month prevalence and disability burden estimates of a broad range of mental and neurological disorders in the European Union (EU) and to compare these findings to previous estimates. Referring to our previous 2005 review, improved up-to-date data for the enlarged EU on a broader range of disorders than previously covered are needed for basic, clinical and public health research and policy decisions and to inform about the estimated number of persons affected in the EU. Method: Stepwise multi-method approach, consisting of systematic literature reviews, reanalyses of existing data sets, national surveys and expert consultations. Studies and data from all member states of the European Union (EU-27) plus Switzerland, Iceland and Norway were included. Supplementary information about neurological disorders is provided, although methodological constraints prohibited the derivation of overall prevalence estimates for mental and neurological disorders. Disease burden was measured by disability adjusted life years (DALY). Results: Prevalence: It is estimated that each year 38.2% of the EU population suffers from a mental disorder. Adjusted for age and comorbidity, this corresponds to 164.8 million persons affected. Compared to 2005 (27.4%) this higher estimate is entirely due to the inclusion of 14 new disorders also covering childhood/adolescence as well as the elderly. The estimated higher number of persons affected (2011: 165 m vs. 2005: 82 m) is due to coverage of childhood and old age populations, new disorders and of new EU membership states. The most frequent disorders are anxiety disorders (14.0%), insomnia (7.0%), major depression (6.9%), somatoform (6.3%), alcohol and drug dependence (>4%), ADHD (5%) in the young, and dementia (1-30%, depending on age). Except for substance use disorders and mental retardation, there were no substantial cultural or country variations. Although many sources, including national health insurance programs, reveal increases in sick leave, early retirement and treatment rates due to mental disorders, rates in the community have not increased with a few exceptions (i.e. dementia). There were also no consistent indications of improvements with regard to low treatment rates, delayed treatment provision and grossly inadequate treatment. Disability: Disorders of the brain and mental disorders in particular, contribute 26.6% of the total all cause burden, thus a greater proportion as compared to other regions of the world. The rank order of the most disabling diseases differs markedly by gender and age group; overall, the four most disabling single conditions were: depression, dementias, alcohol use disorders and stroke. Conclusion: In every year over a third of the total EU population suffers from mental disorders. The true size of "disorders of the brain" including neurological disorders is even considerably larger. Disorders of the brain are the largest contributor to the all cause morbidity burden as measured by DALY in the EU. No indications for increasing overall rates of mental disorders were found nor of improved care and treatment since 2005; less than one third of all cases receive any treatment, suggesting a considerable level of unmet needs. We conclude that the true size and burden of disorders of the brain in the EU was significantly underestimated in the past.Concerted priority action is needed at all levels, including substantially increased funding for basic, clinical and public health research in order to identify better strategies for improved prevention and treatment for isorders of the brain as the core health challenge of the 21st century. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.

Temporal and spatial origin of Gesneriaceae in the New World inferred from plastid DNA sequences

Gesneriaceae are represented in the New World (NW) by a major clade (c. 1000 species) currently recognized as subfamily Gesnerioideae. Radiation of this group occurred in all biomes of tropical America and was accompanied by extensive phenotypic and ecological diversification. Here we performed phylogenetic analyses using DNA sequences from three plastid loci to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Gesnerioideae and to investigate its relationship with other lineages of Gesneriaceae and Lamiales. Our molecular data confirm the inclusion of the South Pacific Coronanthereae and the Old World (OW) monotypic genus Titanotrichum in Gesnerioideae and the sister-group relationship of this subfamily to the rest of the OW Gesneriaceae. Calceolariaceae and the NW genera Peltanthera and Sanango appeared successively sister to Gesneriaceae, whereas Cubitanthus, which has been previously assigned to Gesneriaceae, is shown to be related to Linderniaceae. Based on molecular dating and biogeographical reconstruction analyses, we suggest that ancestors of Gesneriaceae originated in South America during the Late Cretaceous. Distribution of Gesneriaceae in the Palaeotropics and Australasia was inferred as resulting from two independent long-distance dispersals during the Eocene and Oligocene, respectively. In a short time span starting at 34 Mya, ancestors of Gesnerioideae colonized several Neotropical regions including the tropical Andes, Brazilian Atlantic forest, cerrado, Central America and the West Indies. Subsequent diversification within these areas occurred largely in situ and was particularly extensive in the mountainous systems of the Andes, Central America and the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Only two radiations account for 90% of the diversity of Gesneriaceae in the Brazilian Atlantic forest, whereas half of the species richness in the northern Andes and Central America originated during the last 10 Myr from a single radiation.

The prediction of speed and incline in outdoor running in humans using accelerometry.

PURPOSE: To explore whether triaxial accelerometric measurements can be utilized to accurately assess speed and incline of running in free-living conditions. METHODS: Body accelerations during running were recorded at the lower back and at the heel by a portable data logger in 20 human subjects, 10 men, and 10 women. After parameterizing body accelerations, two neural networks were designed to recognize each running pattern and calculate speed and incline. Each subject ran 18 times on outdoor roads at various speeds and inclines; 12 runs were used to calibrate the neural networks whereas the 6 other runs were used to validate the model. RESULTS: A small difference between the estimated and the actual values was observed: the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) was 0.12 m x s(-1) for speed and 0.014 radiant (rad) (or 1.4% in absolute value) for incline. Multiple regression analysis allowed accurate prediction of speed (RMSE = 0.14 m x s(-1)) but not of incline (RMSE = 0.026 rad or 2.6% slope). CONCLUSION: Triaxial accelerometric measurements allows an accurate estimation of speed of running and incline of terrain (the latter with more uncertainty). This will permit the validation of the energetic results generated on the treadmill as applied to more physiological unconstrained running conditions.

Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.