Robust response transformations based on optimal prediction

Nonlinear regression problems can often be reduced to linearity by transforming the response variable (e.g., using the Box-Cox family of transformations). The classic estimates of the parameter defining the transformation as well as of the regression coefficients are based on the maximum likelihood criterion, assuming homoscedastic normal errors for the transformed response. These estimates are nonrobust in the presence of outliers and can be inconsistent when the errors are nonnormal or heteroscedastic. This article proposes new robust estimates that are consistent and asymptotically normal for any unimodal and homoscedastic error distribution. For this purpose, a robust version of conditional expectation is introduced for which the prediction mean squared error is replaced with an M scale. This concept is then used to develop a nonparametric criterion to estimate the transformation parameter as well as the regression coefficients. A finite sample estimate of this criterion based on a robust version of smearing is also proposed. Monte Carlo experiments show that the new estimates compare favorably with respect to the available competitors.

Aspects thérapeutiques de la vitamine D: quels taux cibler avec quels traitements [Therapeutic goal of vitamin D: optimal serum level and dose requirements].

Therapeutic goal of vitamin D: optimal serum level and dose requirements Results of randomized controlled trials and meta-analyses investigating the effect of vitamin D supplementation on falls and fractures are inconsistent. The optimal serum level 25(OH) vitamin D for musculoskeletal and global health is > or = 30 ng/ml (75 nmol/l) for some experts and 20 ng/ml (50 nmol/l) for some others. A daily dose of vitamin D is better than high intermittent doses to reach this goal. High dose once-yearly vitamin D therapy may increase the incidence of fractures and falls. High serum level of vitamin D is probably harmful for the musculoskeletal system and health at large. The optimal benefits for musculoskeletal health are obtained with an 800 UI daily dose and a serum level of near 30 ng/ml (75 nmol/l).

Current trends in illegal drug use and drug related health problems in Switzerland.

As part of the evaluation of the Confederation's measures to reduce drug related problems, a review of available data on drug use and drug related problems in Switzerland has been conducted. Source of data included: population surveys (adults and teenagers), surveys among drug users, health statistics (drug related and AIDS related deaths, HIV case reporting, drug treatments) police statistics (denunciations for consumption). The aims of reducing the number of dependent hard drug users have been achieved where heroin is concerned. In particular, there seems to have been a decrease in the number of people becoming addicted to this substance. For all other illegal substances, especially cannabis, the trend is towards an increased use, as in many European countries. As regards dependent drug users, especially injecting drug users, progress has been made in the area of harm reduction and treatment coverage. This epidemiological assessment can be used in the discussions currently engaged about the revision of the Law governing narcotics and will be a baseline for future follow up of the situation.

Rabies postexposure prophylaxis in routine practice in view of the new centers for disease control and prevention and world health organization recommendations.

Background. New recommendations for rabies postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) were published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization in 2010. In view of these new recommendations, we investigated the adequacy of rabies PEP among patients consulting our travel clinic. Methods. A retrospective analysis of the files of all patients who consulted for rabies PEP at the Travel Clinic of the University Hospital in Lausanne, Switzerland, between January 2005 and August 2011 was conducted. Results. A total of 110 patients who received rabies PEP were identified. The median age of the patients was 34 years (range, 2-79 years), and 53% were women. Ninety subjects were potentially exposed to rabies while travelling abroad. Shortcomings in the management of these patients were (1) late initiation of rabies PEP in travelers who waited to seek medical care until returning to Switzerland, (2) administration of human rabies immunoglobulin (HRIG) to only 7 of 50 travelers (14%) who sought care abroad and for whom HRIG was indicated, and (3) antibody levels <0.5 IU/mL in 6 of 90 patients (6.7%) after 4 doses of vaccine. Conclusions. Patients do not always receive optimal rabies PEP under real-life conditions. A significant proportion of patients did not develop adequate antibody levels after 4 doses of vaccine. These data indicate that the measurement of antibody levels on day 21 of the Essen PEP regimen is useful in order to verify an adequate immune response.

Parental post-traumatic reactions after premature birth: implications for sleeping and eating problems in the infant.

BACKGROUND: Progress in perinatal medicine has made it possible to increase the survival of very or extremely low birthweight infants. Developmental outcomes of surviving preterm infants have been analysed at the paediatric, neurological, cognitive, and behavioural levels, and a series of perinatal and environmental risk factors have been identified. The threat to the child's survival and invasive medical procedures can be very traumatic for the parents. Few empirical reports have considered post-traumatic stress reactions of the parents as a possible variable affecting a child's outcome. Some studies have described sleeping and eating problems as related to prematurity; these problems are especially critical for the parents. OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of post-traumatic reactions of the parents on sleeping and eating problems of the children. DESIGN: Fifty families with a premature infant (25-33 gestation weeks) and a control group of 25 families with a full term infant participated in the study. Perinatal risks were evaluated during the hospital stay. Mothers and fathers were interviewed when their children were 18 months old about the child's problems and filled in a perinatal post-traumatic stress disorder questionnaire (PPQ). RESULTS: The severity of the perinatal risks only partly predicts a child's problems. Independently of the perinatal risks, the intensity of the post-traumatic reactions of the parents is an important predictor of these problems. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the parental response to premature birth mediates the risks of later adverse outcomes. Preventive intervention should be promoted.

When "enough" is not enough: new perspectives on optimal methadone maintenance dose.

Some methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) programs prescribe inadequate daily methadone doses. Patients complain of withdrawal symptoms and continue illicit opioid use, yet practitioners are reluctant to increase doses above certain arbitrary thresholds. Serum methadone levels (SMLs) may guide practitioners dosing decisions, especially for those patients who have low SMLs despite higher methadone doses. Such variation is due in part to the complexities of methadone metabolism. The medication itself is a racemic (50:50) mixture of 2 enantiomers: an active "R" form and an essentially inactive "S" form. Methadone is metabolized primarily in the liver, by up to five cytochrome P450 isoforms, and individual differences in enzyme activity help explain wide ranges of active R-enantiomer concentrations in patients given identical doses of racemic methadone. Most clinical research studies have used methadone doses of less than 100 mg/day [d] and have not reported corresponding SMLs. New research suggests that doses ranging from 120 mg/d to more than 700 mg/d, with correspondingly higher SMLs, may be optimal for many patients. Each patient presents a unique clinical challenge, and there is no way of prescribing a single best methadone dose to achieve a specific blood level as a "gold standard" for all patients. Clinical signs and patient-reported symptoms of abstinence syndrome, and continuing illicit opioid use, are effective indicators of dose inadequacy. There does not appear to be a maximum daily dose limit when determining what is adequately "enough" methadone in MMT.

Policy Change and the Politics of Expertise. Economic Ideas and immigration Control Reforms in switzerland

This article analyses the varying influence across time of the "epistemic community" of free-market economists on immigration policy making in Switzerland. To this end, a framework for the analysis of the impact of economic expertise is provided, and then used in an historical analysis comparing the 1960s with the 1990s. Whereas this influence can be considered to have been weak in the 1960s, it gained significantly in importance in the 1990s, when a period of economic unrest seriously challenged previous immigration policies. It is argued that economic experts played an important role in framing the reforms undertaken during this latter period, notably by providing a "credible causal story" about the links between the existing immigration policy and the social problems which arose in the country in the 1990s. As compared to the 1960s, economic expertise in the 1990s enjoyed more credibility, more political support and took full advantage of a more uncertain social and economic context

Accurate and efficient simulation of multiphase flow in a heterogeneous reservoir by using error estimate and control in the multiscale finite-volume framework

The multiscale finite-volume (MSFV) method is designed to reduce the computational cost of elliptic and parabolic problems with highly heterogeneous anisotropic coefficients. The reduction is achieved by splitting the original global problem into a set of local problems (with approximate local boundary conditions) coupled by a coarse global problem. It has been shown recently that the numerical errors in MSFV results can be reduced systematically with an iterative procedure that provides a conservative velocity field after any iteration step. The iterative MSFV (i-MSFV) method can be obtained with an improved (smoothed) multiscale solution to enhance the localization conditions, with a Krylov subspace method [e.g., the generalized-minimal-residual (GMRES) algorithm] preconditioned by the MSFV system, or with a combination of both. In a multiphase-flow system, a balance between accuracy and computational efficiency should be achieved by finding a minimum number of i-MSFV iterations (on pressure), which is necessary to achieve the desired accuracy in the saturation solution. In this work, we extend the i-MSFV method to sequential implicit simulation of time-dependent problems. To control the error of the coupled saturation/pressure system, we analyze the transport error caused by an approximate velocity field. We then propose an error-control strategy on the basis of the residual of the pressure equation. At the beginning of simulation, the pressure solution is iterated until a specified accuracy is achieved. To minimize the number of iterations in a multiphase-flow problem, the solution at the previous timestep is used to improve the localization assumption at the current timestep. Additional iterations are used only when the residual becomes larger than a specified threshold value. Numerical results show that only a few iterations on average are necessary to improve the MSFV results significantly, even for very challenging problems. Therefore, the proposed adaptive strategy yields efficient and accurate simulation of multiphase flow in heterogeneous porous media.

Optimal dividend strategies for a compound Poisson risk process under transaction costs and power utility

We characterize the value function of maximizing the total discounted utility of dividend payments for a compound Poisson insurance risk model when strictly positive transaction costs are included, leading to an impulse control problem. We illustrate that well known simple strategies can be optimal in the case of exponential claim amounts. Finally we develop a numerical procedure to deal with general claim amount distributions.

Optimal CD8 T cell responsiveness is controlled within a defined TCR affinity window

Protective immune responses relyon TCR-mediated recognition of antigenspresented by MHC molecules. Tcells directed against tumor antigensare thought to express TCRs of loweraffinity/avidity than pathogen-specificT lymphocytes. An attractivestrategy to improve anti-tumor T cellresponses is to adoptively transferCD8+ T cells engineered with TCRsof optimized affinity. However, themechanisms that control optimal Tcell activation and responsiveness remainpoorly defined. We aim at characterizingTCR-pMHC binding parametersand downstream signalingevents that regulate T cell functionalityby using an in silico designedpanel of tumor antigen-specific TCRsof incremental affinity for pMHC(Kd100 M- 15 nM).We found that optimalT cell responses (cytokine secretionand target cell killing) occurredwithin a well-defined window ofTCR-pMHC binding affinity (5 M-1 M), while drastic functional declinewas detected in T cells expressingvery low and very high TCRaffinities,which was not caused by any increasein apoptosis. Whole-genomemicroarray analysis revealed that Tcells with optimal TCR affinitieshighly up-regulated transcription ofgenes typical of T cell activation (i.e.IFN-, NF-B and TNFR), while reducedexpression was detected in Tcells of very low or very high TCR affinity.Strikingly, hierarchical clusteringshowed that the latter two variantsclustered together with the un-stimulatedcontrol Tcells.Yet, despite commonclustering, several genes seemedto be differentially expressed, suggestingthat the mechanisms involvedin this "unresponsiveness state" maydiffer between those two variants. Finally,calcium influx assays also demonstratedattenuated responses in Tcells of very high TCR affinity. Ourresults indicate that optimal T cellfunction is tightly controlled within adefinedTCRaffinity window throughvery proximal TCR-mediated mechanisms,possibly at the TCR-pMHCbinding interface. Uncovering themechanisms regulating optimal/maximalT cell function is essential to understandand promote therapeutic designlike adoptive T cell therapy.

Hormonal control of spermatogenesis in men: therapeutic aspects in hypogonadotropic hypogonadism.

During the first two trimesters of intrauterine life, fetal sex steroid production is driven by maternal human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG). The HPG axis is activated around the third trimester and remains active for the first 6-months of neonatal life. This so-called mini-puberty is a developmental window that has profound effects on future potential for fertility. In early puberty, GnRH secretion is reactivated first at night and then night and day. Pulsatile GnRH stimulates both LH and FSH, which induce maturation of the seminiferous tubules and Leydig cells. Congenital hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (CHH) results from GnRH deficiency. Men with CHH lack the mini-pubertal and pubertal periods of Sertoli Cell proliferation and thus present with prepubertal testes (<4mL) and low inhibin serum levels --reflecting diminished SC numbers. To induce full maturation of the testes, GnRH-deficient patients can be treated with either pulsatile GnRH, hCG or combined gonadotropin therapy (FSH+hCG). Fertility outcomes with each of these regimens are highly variable. Recently, a randomized, open label treatment study (n=13) addressed the question of whether a sequential treatment with FSH alone prior to LH and FSH (via GnRH pump) could enhance fertility outcomes. All men receiving the sequential treatment developed sperm in the ejaculate, whereas 2/6 men in the other group remained azoospermic. A large, multicenter clinical trial is needed to definitively prove the optimal treatment approach for severe CHH.

Regulation of antibiotic production in root-colonizing Peudomonas spp. and relevance for biological control of plant disease.

Certain strains of fluorescent pseudomonads are important biological components of agricultural soils that are suppressive to diseases caused by pathogenic fungi on crop plants. The biocontrol abilities of such strains depend essentially on aggressive root colonization, induction of systemic resistance in the plant, and the production of diffusible or volatile antifungal antibiotics. Evidence that these compounds are produced in situ is based on their chemical extraction from the rhizosphere and on the expression of antibiotic biosynthetic genes in the producer strains colonizing plant roots. Well-characterized antibiotics with biocontrol properties include phenazines, 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol, pyoluteorin, pyrrolnitrin, lipopeptides, and hydrogen cyanide. In vitro, optimal production of these compounds occurs at high cell densities and during conditions of restricted growth, involving (i) a number of transcriptional regulators, which are mostly pathway-specific, and (ii) the GacS/GacA two-component system, which globally exerts a positive effect on the production of extracellular metabolites at a posttranscriptional level. Small untranslated RNAs have important roles in the GacS/GacA signal transduction pathway. One challenge in future biocontrol research involves development of new strategies to overcome the broad toxicity and lack of antifungal specificity displayed by most biocontrol antibiotics studied so far.

Maximising the duration of disease control in metastatic renal cell carcinoma with targeted agents: an expert agreement.

With six targeted agents approved (sorafenib, sunitinib, temsirolimus, bevacizumab [+interferon], everolimus and pazopanib), many patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) will receive multiple therapies. However, the optimum sequencing approach has not been defined. A group of European experts reviewed available data and shared their clinical experience to compile an expert agreement on the sequential use of targeted agents in mRCC. To date, there are few prospective studies of sequential therapy. The mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor everolimus was approved for use in patients who failed treatment with inhibitors of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and VEGF receptors (VEGFR) based on the results from a Phase III placebo-controlled study; however, until then, the only licensed agents across the spectrum of mRCC were VEGF(R) inhibitors (sorafenib, sunitinib and bevacizumab + interferon), and as such, a large body of evidence has accumulated regarding their use in sequence. Data show that sequential use of VEGF(R) inhibitors may be an effective treatment strategy to achieve prolonged clinical benefit. The optimal place of each targeted agent in the treatment sequence is still unclear, and data from large prospective studies are needed. The Phase III AXIS study of second-line sorafenib vs. axitinib (including post-VEGF(R) inhibitors) has completed, but the data are not yet published; other ongoing studies include the Phase III SWITCH study of sorafenib-sunitinib vs. sunitinib-sorafenib (NCT00732914); the Phase III 404 study of temsirolimus vs. sorafenib post-sunitinib (NCT00474786) and the Phase II RECORD 3 study of sunitinib-everolimus vs. everolimus-sunitinib (NCT00903175). Until additional data are available, consideration of patient response and tolerability to treatment may facilitate current decision-making regarding when to switch and which treatment to switch to in real-life clinical practice.

Social and medical vulnerability factors of frequent users at the emergency department: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Up to 5% of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) four or more times within a 12 month period represent 21% of total ED visits. In this study we sought to characterize social and medical vulnerability factors of ED frequent users (FUs) and to explore if these factors hold simultaneously. METHODS: We performed a case-control study at Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Patients over 18 years presenting to the ED at least once within the study period (April 2008 toMarch 2009) were included. FUs were defined as patients with four or more ED visits within the previous 12 months. Outcome data were extracted from medical records of the first ED attendance within the study period. Outcomes included basic demographics and social variables, ED admission diagnosis, somatic and psychiatric days hospitalized over 12 months, and having a primary care physician.We calculated the percentage of FUs and non-FUs having at least one social and one medical vulnerability factor. The four chosen social factors included: unemployed and/or dependence on government welfare, institutionalized and/or without fixed residence, either separated, divorced or widowed, and under guardianship. The fourmedical vulnerability factors were: ≥6 somatic days hospitalized, ≥1 psychiatric days hospitalized, ≥5 clinical departments used (all three factors measured over 12 months), and ED admission diagnosis of alcohol and/or drug abuse. Univariate and multivariate logistical regression analyses allowed comparison of two JGIM ABSTRACTS S391 random samples of 354 FUs and 354 non-FUs (statistical power 0.9, alpha 0.05 for all outcomes except gender, country of birth, and insurance type). RESULTS: FUs accounted for 7.7% of ED patients and 24.9% of ED visits. Univariate logistic regression showed that FUs were older (mean age 49.8 vs. 45.2 yrs, p=0.003),more often separated and/or divorced (17.5%vs. 13.9%, p=0.029) or widowed (13.8% vs. 8.8%, p=0.029), and either unemployed or dependent on government welfare (31.3% vs. 13.3%, p<0.001), compared to non-FUs. FUs cumulated more days hospitalized over 12 months (mean number of somatic days per patient 1.0 vs. 0.3, p<0.001; mean number of psychiatric days per patient 0.12 vs. 0.03, p<0.001). The two groups were similar regarding gender distribution (females 51.7% vs. 48.3%). The multivariate linear regression model was based on the six most significant factors identified by univariate analysis The model showed that FUs had more social problems, as they were more likely to be institutionalized or not have a fixed residence (OR 4.62; 95% CI, 1.65 to 12.93), and to be unemployed or dependent on government welfare (OR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.31 to 3.14) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to need medical care, as indicated by involvement of≥5 clinical departments over 12 months (OR 6.2; 95%CI, 3.74 to 10.15), having an ED admission diagnosis of substance abuse (OR 3.23; 95% CI, 1.23 to 8.46) and having a primary care physician (OR 1.70;95%CI, 1.13 to 2.56); however, they were less likely to present with an admission diagnosis of injury (OR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.40 to 1.00) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to combine at least one social with one medical vulnerability factor (38.4% vs. 12.1%, OR 7.74; 95% CI 5.03 to 11.93). CONCLUSIONS: FUs were more likely than non-FUs to have social and medical vulnerability factors and to have multiple factors in combination.

Stage fright: its experience as a problem and coping with it.

PURPOSE AND METHOD: This questionnaire survey of 190 university music students assessed negative feelings of music performance anxiety (MPA) before performing, the experience of stage fright as a problem, and how closely they are associated with each other. The study further investigated whether the experience of stage fright as a problem and negative feelings of MPA predict the coping behavior of the music students. Rarely addressed coping issues were assessed, i.e., self-perceived effectiveness of different coping strategies, knowledge of possible risks and acceptance of substance-based coping strategies, and need for more support.RESULTS: The results show that one-third of the students experienced stage fright as a problem and that this was only moderately correlated with negative feelings of MPA. The experience of stage fright as a problem significantly predicted the frequency of use and the acceptance of medication as a coping strategy. Breathing exercises and self-control techniques were rated as effective as medication. Finally, students expressed a strong need to receive more support (65%) and more information (84%) concerning stage fright.CONCLUSION: Stage fright was experienced as a problem and perceived as having negative career consequences by a considerable percentage of the surveyed students. In addition to a desire for more help and support, the students expressed an openness and willingness to seriously discuss and address the topic of stage fright. This provides a necessary and promising basis for optimal career preparation and, hence, an opportunity to prevent occupational problems in professional musicians. [Authors]