72 resultados para Multilevel linear model
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Background Early age at first delivery has been identified as a risk factor for high-risk HPV-type infection and cervical cancer development. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. During June 2006 to February 2007, 301 women aged 15-24 years who gave birth to their first child were recruited between 43 and 60 days after delivery. Detection of HPV DNA in cervical specimens was performed using a standardised PCR protocol with PGMY09/11 primers. The association of selected factors with HPV infection was assessed by using a Generalised Linear Model. Results HPV DNA was detected in 58.5% (95% CI 52.7% to 64.0%) of the enrolled young women. The most common types of HPV found were: HPV16, HPV51, HPV52, HPV58 and HPV71. The overall prevalence of HPV types targeted by the HPV prophylactic vaccines was: HPV 16-12.0%, HPV 18-2.3% and HPV 6 and 11 4.3%. In the multivariate analysis, only age (inversely, p for trend=0.02) and smoking habits were independently associated with HPV infection. Conclusions The findings show that these young primiparous women had high cervical HPV prevalence, suggesting that this is a high-risk group for cervical cancer development. Nevertheless, 17.3% were positive for any of the four HPV types included in HPV vaccines (HPV6, 11, 16 or 18), with 13.3% positive for HPV 16 or 18 and only 1.0% having both vaccine related-oncogenic HPV types. Thus, young primiparous women could benefit from catch-up HPV vaccination programmes.
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The n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log Po/w) is a key physicochemical parameter for drug discovery, design, and development. Here, we present a physics-based approach that shows a strong linear correlation between the computed solvation free energy in implicit solvents and the experimental log Po/w on a cleansed data set of more than 17,500 molecules. After internal validation by five-fold cross-validation and data randomization, the predictive power of the most interesting multiple linear model, based on two GB/SA parameters solely, was tested on two different external sets of molecules. On the Martel druglike test set, the predictive power of the best model (N = 706, r = 0.64, MAE = 1.18, and RMSE = 1.40) is similar to six well-established empirical methods. On the 17-drug test set, our model outperformed all compared empirical methodologies (N = 17, r = 0.94, MAE = 0.38, and RMSE = 0.52). The physical basis of our original GB/SA approach together with its predictive capacity, computational efficiency (1 to 2 s per molecule), and tridimensional molecular graphics capability lay the foundations for a promising predictor, the implicit log P method (iLOGP), to complement the portfolio of drug design tools developed and provided by the SIB Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics.
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1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.
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Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are a potential target for neuroprotection in focal ischemic stroke. These nuclear receptors have major effects in lipid metabolism, but they are also involved in inflammatory processes. Three PPAR isotypes have been identified: alpha, beta (or delta) and gamma. The development of PPAR transgenic mice offers a promising tool for prospective therapeutic studies. This study used MRI to assess the role of PPARalpha and PPARbeta in the development of stroke. Permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion induced focal ischemia in wild-type, PPARalpha-null mice and PPARbeta-null mice. T(2)-weighted MRI was performed with a 7 T MRI scan on day 0, 1, 3, 7 and 14 to monitor lesion growth in the various genotypes. General Linear Model statistical analysis found a significant difference in lesion volume between wild-type and PPAR-null mice for both alpha and beta isotypes. These data validate high-resolution MRI for monitoring cerebral ischemic lesions, and confirm the neuroprotective role of PPARalpha and PPARbeta in the brain.
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Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.
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Introduction: Prior clozapine studies indicated no effects, mild inhibition or induction of valproic acid (VPA) on clozapine metabolism. The hypotheses that (i) VPA is a net inducer of clozapine metabolism, and (ii) smoking modifies this inductive effect were tested in a therapeutic drug monitoring study. Methods: After excluding strong inhibitors and inducers, 353 steady-state total clozapine (clozapine plus norclozapine) concentrations provided by 151 patients were analyzed using a random intercept linear model. Results: VPA appeared to be an inducer of clozapine metabolism since total plasma clozapine concentrations in subjects taking VPA were significantly lower (27% lower; 95% confidence interval, 14-39%) after controlling for confounding variables including smoking (35% lower, 28-56%). Discussion: Prospective studies are needed to definitively establish that VPA may (i) be an inducer of clozapine metabolism when induction prevails over competitive inhibition, and (ii) be an inducer even in smokers who are under the influence of smoking inductive effects on clozapine metabolism.
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Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.
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The method of instrumental variable (referred to as Mendelian randomization when the instrument is a genetic variant) has been initially developed to infer on a causal effect of a risk factor on some outcome of interest in a linear model. Adapting this method to nonlinear models, however, is known to be problematic. In this paper, we consider the simple case when the genetic instrument, the risk factor, and the outcome are all binary. We compare via simulations the usual two-stages estimate of a causal odds-ratio and its adjusted version with a recently proposed estimate in the context of a clinical trial with noncompliance. In contrast to the former two, we confirm that the latter is (under some conditions) a valid estimate of a causal odds-ratio defined in the subpopulation of compliers, and we propose its use in the context of Mendelian randomization. By analogy with a clinical trial with noncompliance, compliers are those individuals for whom the presence/absence of the risk factor X is determined by the presence/absence of the genetic variant Z (i.e., for whom we would observe X = Z whatever the alleles randomly received at conception). We also recall and illustrate the huge variability of instrumental variable estimates when the instrument is weak (i.e., with a low percentage of compliers, as is typically the case with genetic instruments for which this proportion is frequently smaller than 10%) where the inter-quartile range of our simulated estimates was up to 18 times higher compared to a conventional (e.g., intention-to-treat) approach. We thus conclude that the need to find stronger instruments is probably as important as the need to develop a methodology allowing to consistently estimate a causal odds-ratio.
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PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of weather, rank, and home advantage on international football match results and scores in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. METHODS: Football matches (n = 2008) in six GCC countries were analyzed. To determine the weather influence on the likelihood of favorable outcome and goal difference, generalized linear model with a logit link function and multiple regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: In the GCC region, home teams tend to have greater likelihood of a favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and higher goal difference (P < 0.001). Temperature difference was identified as a significant explanatory variable when used independently (P < 0.001) or after adjustment for home advantage and team ranking (P < 0.001). The likelihood of favorable outcome for GCC teams increases by 3% for every 1-unit increase in temperature difference. After inclusion of interaction with opposition, this advantage remains significant only when playing against non-GCC opponents. While home advantage increased the odds of favorable outcome (P < 0.001) and goal difference (P < 0.001) after inclusion of interaction term, the likelihood of favorable outcome for a GCC team decreased (P < 0.001) when playing against a stronger opponent. Finally, the temperature and wet bulb globe temperature approximation were found as better indicators of the effect of environmental conditions than absolute and relative humidity or heat index on match outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In GCC region, higher temperature increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome when playing against non-GCC teams. However, international ranking should be considered because an opponent with a higher rank reduced, but did not eliminate, the likelihood of a favorable outcome.
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In a recent paper, Traulsen and Nowak use a multilevel selection model to show that cooperation can be favored by group selection in finite populations [Traulsen A, Nowak M (2006) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:10952-10955]. The authors challenge the view that kin selection may be an appropriate interpretation of their results and state that group selection is a distinctive process "that permeates evolutionary processes from the emergence of the first cells to eusociality and the economics of nations." In this paper, we start by addressing Traulsen and Nowak's challenge and demonstrate that all their results can be obtained by an application of kin selection theory. We then extend Traulsen and Nowak's model to life history conditions that have been previously studied. This allows us to highlight the differences and similarities between Traulsen and Nowak's model and typical kin selection models and also to broaden the scope of their results. Our retrospective analyses of Traulsen and Nowak's model illustrate that it is possible to convert group selection models to kin selection models without disturbing the mathematics describing the net effect of selection on cooperation.
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It has been repeatedly debated which strategies people rely on in inference. These debates have been difficult to resolve, partially because hypotheses about the decision processes assumed by these strategies have typically been formulated qualitatively, making it hard to test precise quantitative predictions about response times and other behavioral data. One way to increase the precision of strategies is to implement them in cognitive architectures such as ACT-R. Often, however, a given strategy can be implemented in several ways, with each implementation yielding different behavioral predictions. We present and report a study with an experimental paradigm that can help to identify the correct implementations of classic compensatory and non-compensatory strategies such as the take-the-best and tallying heuristics, and the weighted-linear model.
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INTRODUCTION: In patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides only limited insights into the nature of brain damage with modest clinic-radiological correlation. In this study, we applied recent advances in MRI techniques to study brain microstructural alterations in early relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with minor deficits. Further, we investigated the potential use of advanced MRI to predict functional performances in these patients. METHODS: Brain relaxometry (T1, T2, T2*) and magnetization transfer MRI were performed at 3T in 36 RRMS patients and 18 healthy controls (HC). Multicontrast analysis was used to assess for microstructural alterations in normal-appearing (NA) tissue and lesions. A generalized linear model was computed to predict clinical performance in patients using multicontrast MRI data, conventional MRI measures as well as demographic and behavioral data as covariates. RESULTS: Quantitative T2 and T2* relaxometry were significantly increased in temporal normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) of patients compared to HC, indicating subtle microedema (P = 0.03 and 0.004). Furthermore, significant T1 and magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) variations in lesions (mean T1 z-score: 4.42 and mean MTR z-score: -4.09) suggested substantial tissue loss. Combinations of multicontrast and conventional MRI data significantly predicted cognitive fatigue (P = 0.01, Adj-R (2) = 0.4), attention (P = 0.0005, Adj-R (2) = 0.6), and disability (P = 0.03, Adj-R (2) = 0.4). CONCLUSION: Advanced MRI techniques at 3T, unraveled the nature of brain tissue damage in early MS and substantially improved clinical-radiological correlations in patients with minor deficits, as compared to conventional measures of disease.
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Aims :¦Several studies have questioned the validity of separating the diagnosis of alcohol abuse from that of alcohol dependence, and the DSM-5 task force has proposed combining the criteria from these two diagnoses to assess a single category of alcohol use disorders (AUD). Furthermore, the DSM-5 task force has proposed including a new 2-symptom threshold and a severity scale based on symptom counts for the AUD diagnosis. The current study aimed to examine these modifications in a large population-based sample.¦Method :¦Data stemmed from an adult sample (N=2588 ; mean age 51.3 years (s.d.: 0.2), 44.9% female) of current and lifetime drinkers from the PsyCoLaus study, conducted in the Lausanne area in Switzerland. AUDs and validating variables were assessed using a semi-structured diagnostic interview for the assessment of alcohol¦and other major psychiatric disorders. First, the adequacy of the proposed 2- symptom threshold was tested by comparing threshold models at each possible cutoff and a linear model, in relation to different validating variables. The model with the smallest Akaike Criterion Information (AIC) value was established as the best¦model for each validating variable. Second, models with varying subsets of individual AUD symptoms were created to assess the associations between each symptom and the validating variables. The subset of symptoms with the smallest AIC value was established as the best subset for each validator.¦Results :¦1) For the majority of validating variables, the linear model was found to be the best fitting model. 2) Among the various subsets of symptoms, the symptoms most frequently associated with the validating variables were : a) drinking despite having knowledge of a physical or psychological problem, b) having had a persistent desire or unsuccessful efforts to cut down or control drinking and c) craving. The¦least frequent symptoms were : d) drinking in larger amounts or over a longer period than was intended, e) spending a great deal of time in obtaining, using or recovering from alcohol use and f) failing to fulfill major role obligations.¦Conclusions :¦The proposed DSM-5 2-symptom threshold did not receive support in our data. Instead, a linear AUD diagnosis was supported with individuals receiving an increasingly severe AUD diagnosis. Moreover, certain symptoms were more frequently associated with the validating variables, which suggests that these¦symptoms should be considered as more severe.
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The present study tested the effect of a school-based physical activity (PA) program on quality of life (QoL) in 540 elementary school children. First and fifth graders were randomly assigned to a PA program or a no-PA control condition during one academic year. QoL was assessed by the Child Health Questionnaire at baseline and postintervention. Based on mixed linear model analyses, physical QoL in first graders and physical and psychosocial QoL in fifth graders were not affected by the intervention. In first graders, the PA intervention had a positive impact on psychosocial QoL (effect size [d], 0.32; p < .05). Subpopulation analyses revealed that this effect was caused by an effect in urban (effect size [d], 0.38; p < .05) and overweight first graders (effect size [d], 0.45; p < .05). In conclusion, a school-based PA intervention had little effect on QoL in elementary school children.
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Summary The mechanisms regulating the protective immune T-cell responses generated against the persistent Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and Cytomegaloviru_s (CNIV) remain poorly understood. We analyzed the dynamics of cellular differentiation and T-cell receptor (TCR) clonotype selection of EBV- and CMV-specific T-cells in healthy adults and melanoma patients. While these responses could be subdivided into four T lymphocyte populations, théir proportions varied between EBV and CMV specific responses. Phenotypic and TCR clonotypic analyses supported a linear model of differentiation from the early-differentiated (EM/CD28pos) subset to the late-differentiatdc (EMRA/CD28neg) subset. In-depth clonal composition analyses revealed TCR repertoires, which were highly restricted for CMV- and relatively diverse for EBV-specific cells. Virtually all virus-specific clonotypes identified in the EMRA/CD28neg subset were also found within the pool of less differentiated "memory" cells. However, striking differences in the patterns of dominance were observed among these subsets, as some clonotypes were selected with differentiation, while others were not. Latedifferentiated CMV-specific clonotypes were mostly characterized by TCRs with lower dependency on CD8 co-receptor interaction. Yet all clonotypes displayed similar functional avidities, suggesting a compensatory role of CD8 in the clonotypes of lower TCR avidity. Importantly, clonotype selection and composition of each virus-specific subset upon differentiation was highly preserved over time, with the presence of the same dominant clonotypes at specific differentiation stages within a period of four years. This work was extended to the study of EBV-specific CD8 T-cell responses in melanoma patients undergoing transient lymphodepletion, followed by adoptive cell transfer (ACT) and immune reconstitution for thè treatment of their tumors. Following treatment regimen, we first observed an increase in the proportion of virus-specific T-cells in 3 out of 5 patients, accompanied by a more differentiated phenotype (EMRA/CD28neg), compared to specific cells of healthy individuals. Yet, similarly to healthy donors, clonotype selection and composition of virus-specific T-cells varied along the pathway of cellular differentiation, with some clonotypes being selected with differentiation, while others were not. Intriguingly, no novel clonotypes emerged following transient immuno-suppression and homeostatic proliferation, finding which was subsequently explained by the absence of EBV reactivation. The distribution of each clonotype within early- and late-differentiated T-cell subsets in 4 out 5 patients was highly stable over time, with those clonotypes initially found before the start of treatment that were again present at specific differentiation stages after transient lymphodepletion and ACT. These findings uncover novel features of the highly sophisticated control of steady state protective T-cell immune responses against persistent herpesviruses in healthy adults. Furthermore they reveal the striking stability of these responses in terms of clonotype selection and composition with T-cell differentiation even in situations where the immune system has been. challenged. Résumé : Les mécanismes qui régulent les réponses immunitaires de type protectrices, générées contre les virus chroniquement persistants tels que l'Epstein-Barr (EBV) ou le Cytomegalo (CMV) restent largement inconnus. Nous avons analysé la différenciation des lymphocytes T spécifiques pour ces virus, ainsi que la composition des clonotypes T (par leur récepteur T) chez les donneurs sains. Les réponses immunes peuvent être classifiées en quatre souspopulations majeures de lymphocytes T, cependant, leur proportion varie entre les réponses spécifiques contre EBV ou CMV. Ces analyses soutiennent le modèle linéaire de différenciation, à partir de la population non différenciée (EM/CD28pos) vers la population plus différenciée (ENIIZA/CD28neg). De plus, nos données sur la composition clonale de ces cellules T spécifiques ont révélé des répertoires TCR restreints, pour la réponse anti-CMV, et relativement diversifiés contre EBV. Tous les clonotypes spécifiques de ces virus identifiés dans la sous-population différenciée EMRA/CD28neg, ont également été retrouvés dans la population de cellules "mémoires". Toutefois, de fortes différences ont été observées dans les schémas de domination de ces sous-populations, en effet, certains clonotypes étaient sélectionnés avec la différenciation, alors que d'autres ne l'étaient pas. Nous avons également démontré que ces clonotypes différenciés et spécifiques pour le CMV sont caractérisés par des TCRs à faible dépendance en regard de la coopération du corécepteur CD8. Néanmoins, tous les clonotypes affichent une avidité fonctionnelle similaire, suggérant un rôle compensatoire du CD8, dans le cas des clonotypes avec une faible avidité du TCR En définitive, la composition et la sélection des clonotypes spécifiques pour chaque virus et pour chaque sous-population suit un schéma de différenciation hautement conservé au cours du temps, avec la présence de ces mêmes clonotypes au même stade de différenciation sur une période de quatre ans. Ce travail a été étendu à l'étude des réponses T CD8+ spécifiques pour le virus EBV chez les patients atteints de mélanome et recevant dans le cadre du traitement de leurs tumeurs une lymphodéplétion transitoire, suivie d'un transfert adoptif de cellules et d'une reconstitution immunitaire. Au cours de cette thérapie, nous avons en premier lieu observé pour 3 des 5 patients une augmentation de la proportion de cellules T spécifiques pour le virus, accompagné d'un phénotype plus différencié (EMRA/CD28neg), et ceci comparativement à des cellules spécifiques d'individus sains. Pourtant, comme nous l'avons observé chez les donneurs sains, la sélection et la composition des clonotypes T spécifiques varient tout au long de la différenciation cellulaire, avec certains clonotypes sélectionnés et d'autres qui ne le sont pas. Étonnamment, aucun nouveau clonotype n'a émergé après l'immuno-suppression transitoire et la prolifération homéostatique. Cette observation trouve son explication par une absence de réactivation du virus EBV chez ces patients, et ce malgré leur traitement. De plus, la distribution de chaque clonotype parmi ces sous-populations non-différenciées et différenciées reste stable au cours du traitement. Ainsi, les mêmes clonotypes initialement identifiés avant le début du traitement sont présents aux mêmes stades de différenciation après la lymphodéplétion et la prolifération homéostatique. Ces résultats ont permis d'identifier de nouveaux mécanismes impliqués dans la régulation hautement «sophistiquée » des réponses immunitaires T contre les virus persistants EBV et CMV chez les donneurs sains. En particulier, ils révèlent la grande stabilité de ces réponses en termes de sélection et de composition des clonotypes avec la différenciation cellulaire, et ce dans les situations chroniques, ainsi que dans les situations dans lesquelles le système immunitaire a été profondément perturbé.