58 resultados para Multi-scale modeling


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Mountain ecosystems have been less adversely affected by invasions of non-native plants than most other ecosystems, partially because most invasive plants in the lowlands are limited by climate and cannot grow under harsher high-elevation conditions. However, with ongoing climate change, invasive species may rapidly move upwards and threaten mid- then high-elevation mountain ecosystems. We evaluated this threat by predicting current and future potential distributions of 48 invasive plant species distributed in Switzerland (CH) and New South Wales (NSW), two areas where climate interacts differently with the elevation gradient. Using a species distribution modeling approach combining two scales, which builds on high-resolution data (< 250 m) but accounts for the global climatic niche of species, we found that different environmental drivers limit the elevation range of invasive species in the two regions, leading to region-specific species responses to climate change. Whereas the optimal suitability for plant invaders is predicted to markedly shift from the lowland to the montane or subalpine zone in CH, such an upward shift is far less pronounced in NSW where montane and subalpine elevations are currently already suitable. Non-native species able to invade the upper reaches of mountains in a future climate will be cold-tolerant in the Swiss Alps but preferring wet soils in the Australian Alps. Other plant traits were only marginally associated with elevation limits. These results demonstrate that a more systematic consideration of future distributions of invasive species is required in conservation plans of not yet invaded mountainous ecosystems.

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It is generally accepted that most plant populations are locally adapted. Yet, understanding how environmental forces give rise to adaptive genetic variation is a challenge in conservation genetics and crucial to the preservation of species under rapidly changing climatic conditions. Environmental variation, phylogeographic history, and population demographic processes all contribute to spatially structured genetic variation, however few current models attempt to separate these confounding effects. To illustrate the benefits of using a spatially-explicit model for identifying potentially adaptive loci, we compared outlier locus detection methods with a recently-developed landscape genetic approach. We analyzed 157 loci from samples of the alpine herb Gentiana nivalis collected across the European Alps. Principle coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), eigenvectors that quantify multi-scale spatial variation present in a data set, were incorporated into a landscape genetic approach relating AFLP frequencies with 23 environmental variables. Four major findings emerged. 1) Fifteen loci were significantly correlated with at least one predictor variable (R (adj) (2) > 0.5). 2) Models including PCNM variables identified eight more potentially adaptive loci than models run without spatial variables. 3) When compared to outlier detection methods, the landscape genetic approach detected four of the same loci plus 11 additional loci. 4) Temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were the three major environmental factors driving potentially adaptive genetic variation in G. nivalis. Techniques presented in this paper offer an efficient method for identifying potentially adaptive genetic variation and associated environmental forces of selection, providing an important step forward for the conservation of non-model species under global change.

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Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

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Most available studies on lead smelter emissions deal with the environmental impact of outdoor particles, but only a few focus on air quality at workplaces. The objective of this study is to physically and chemically characterize the Pb-rich particles emitted at different workplaces in a lead recycling plant. A multi-scale characterization was conducted from bulk analysis to the level of individual particles, to assess the particles properties in relation with Pb speciation and availability. Process PM from various origins were sampled and then compared; namely Furnace and Refining PM respectively present in the smelter and at refinery workplaces, Emissions PM present in channeled emissions.These particles first differed by their morphology and size distribution, with finer particles found in emissions. Differences observed in chemical composition could be explained by the industrial processes. All PM contained the same major phases (Pb, PbS, PbO, PbSO4 and PbO·PbSO4) but differed on the nature and amount of minor phases. Due to high content in PM, Pb concentrations in the CaCl2 extractant reached relatively high values (40 mg.L-1). However, the ratios (soluble/total) of CaCl2 exchangeable Pb were relatively low (< 0.02%) in comparison with Cd (up to 18%). These results highlight the interest to assess the soluble fractions of all metals (minor and major) and discuss both total metal concentrations and ratios for risk evaluations. In most cases metal extractability increased with decreasing size of particles, in particular, lead exchangeability was highest for channeled emissions. Such type of study could help in the choice of targeted sanitary protection procedures and for further toxicological investigations. In the present context, particular attention is given to Emissions and Furnace PM. Moreover, exposure to other metals than Pb should be considered. [Authors]

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We perform direct numerical simulations of drainage by solving Navier- Stokes equations in the pore space and employing the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the fluid-fluid interface. After demonstrating that the method is able to deal with large viscosity contrasts and to model the transition from stable flow to viscous fingering, we focus on the definition of macroscopic capillary pressure. When the fluids are at rest, the difference between inlet and outlet pressures and the difference between the intrinsic phase average pressure coincide with the capillary pressure. However, when the fluids are in motion these quantities are dominated by viscous forces. In this case, only a definition based on the variation of the interfacial energy provides an accurate measure of the macroscopic capillary pressure and allows separating the viscous from the capillary pressure components.

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Résumé La diminution de la biodiversité, à toutes les échelles spatiales et sur l'ensemble de la planète, compte parmi les problèmes les plus préoccupants de notre époque. En terme de conservation, il est aujourd'hui primordial de mieux comprendre les mécanismes qui créent et maintiennent la biodiversité dans les écosystèmes naturels ou anthropiques. La présente étude a pour principal objectif d'améliorer notre compréhension des patrons de biodiversité végétale et des mécanismes sous jacents, dans un écosystème complexe, riche en espèces et à forte valeur patrimoniale, les pâturages boisés jurassiens. Structure et échelle spatiales sont progressivement reconnues comme des dimensions incontournables dans l'étude des patrons de biodiversité. De plus, ces deux éléments jouent un rôle central dans plusieurs théories écologiques. Toutefois, peu d'hypothèses issues de simulations ou d'études théoriques concernant le lien entre structure spatiale du paysage et biodiversité ont été testées de façon empirique. De même, l'influence des différentes composantes de l'échelle spatiale sur les patrons de biodiversité est méconnue. Cette étude vise donc à tester quelques-unes de ces hypothèses et à explorer les patrons spatiaux de biodiversité dans un contexte multi-échelle, pour différentes mesures de biodiversité (richesse et composition en espèces) à l'aide de données de terrain. Ces données ont été collectées selon un plan d'échantillonnage hiérarchique. Dans un premier temps, nous avons testé l'hypothèse élémentaire selon laquelle la richesse spécifique (le nombre d'espèces sur une surface donnée) est liée à l'hétérogénéité environnementale quelque soit l'échelle. Nous avons décomposé l'hétérogénéité environnementale en deux parties, la variabilité des conditions environnementales et sa configuration spatiale. Nous avons montré que, en général, la richesse spécifique augmentait avec l'hétérogénéité de l'environnement : elle augmentait avec le nombre de types d'habitats et diminuait avec l'agrégation spatiale de ces habitats. Ces effets ont été observés à toutes les échelles mais leur nature variait en fonction de l'échelle, suggérant une modification des mécanismes. Dans un deuxième temps, la structure spatiale de la composition en espèces a été décomposée en relation avec 20 variables environnementales et 11 traits d'espèces. Nous avons utilisé la technique de partition de la variation et un descripteur spatial, récemment développé, donnant accès à une large gamme d'échelles spatiales. Nos résultats ont montré que la structure spatiale de la composition en espèces végétales était principalement liée à la topographie, aux échelles les plus grossières, et à la disponibilité en lumière, aux échelles les plus fines. La fraction non-environnementale de la variation spatiale de la composition spécifique avait une relation complexe avec plusieurs traits d'espèces suggérant un lien avec des processus biologiques tels que la dispersion, dépendant de l'échelle spatiale. Dans un dernier temps, nous avons testé, à plusieurs échelles spatiales, les relations entre trois composantes de la biodiversité : la richesse spécifique totale d'un échantillon (diversité gamma), la richesse spécifique moyenne (diversité alpha), mesurée sur des sous-échantillons, et les différences de composition spécifique entre les sous-échantillons (diversité beta). Les relations deux à deux entre les diversités alpha, beta et gamma ne suivaient pas les relations attendues, tout du moins à certaines échelles spatiales. Plusieurs de ces relations étaient fortement dépendantes de l'échelle. Nos résultats ont mis en évidence l'importance du rapport d'échelle (rapport entre la taille de l'échantillon et du sous-échantillon) lors de l'étude des patrons spatiaux de biodiversité. Ainsi, cette étude offre un nouvel aperçu des patrons spatiaux de biodiversité végétale et des mécanismes potentiels permettant la coexistence des espèces. Nos résultats suggèrent que les patrons de biodiversité ne peuvent être expliqués par une seule théorie, mais plutôt par une combinaison de théories. Ils ont également mis en évidence le rôle essentiel joué par la structure spatiale dans la détermination de la biodiversité, quelque soit le composant de la biodiversité considéré. Enfin, cette étude souligne l'importance de prendre en compte plusieurs échelles spatiales et différents constituants de l'échelle spatiale pour toute étude relative à la diversité spécifique. Abstract The world-wide loss of biodiversity at all scales has become a matter of urgent concern, and improving our understanding of local drivers of biodiversity in natural and anthropogenic ecosystems is now crucial for conservation. The main objective of this study was to further our comprehension of the driving forces controlling biodiversity patterns in a complex and diverse ecosystem of high conservation value, wooded pastures. Spatial pattern and scale are central to several ecological theories, and it is increasingly recognized that they must be taken -into consideration when studying biodiversity patterns. However, few hypotheses developed from simulations or theoretical studies have been tested using field data, and the evolution of biodiversity patterns with different scale components remains largely unknown. We test several such hypotheses and explore spatial patterns of biodiversity in a multi-scale context and using different measures of biodiversity (species richness and composition), with field data. Data were collected using a hierarchical sampling design. We first tested the simple hypothesis that species richness, the number of species in a given area, is related to environmental heterogeneity at all scales. We decomposed environmental heterogeneity into two parts: the variability of environmental conditions and its spatial configuration. We showed that species richness generally increased with environmental heterogeneity: species richness increased with increasing number of habitat types and with decreasing spatial aggregation of those habitats. Effects occurred at all scales but the nature of the effect changed with scale, suggesting a change in underlying mechanisms. We then decomposed the spatial structure of species composition in relation to environmental variables and species traits using variation partitioning and a recently developed spatial descriptor, allowing us to capture a wide range of spatial scales. We showed that the spatial structure of plant species composition was related to topography at the coarsest scales and insolation at finer scales. The non-environmental fraction of the spatial variation in species composition had a complex relationship with several species traits, suggesting a scale-dependent link to biological processes, particularly dispersal. Finally, we tested, at different spatial scales, the relationships between different components of biodiversity: total sample species richness (gamma diversity), mean species .richness (alpha diversity), measured in nested subsamples, and differences in species composition between subsamples (beta diversity). The pairwise relationships between alpha, beta and gamma diversity did not follow the expected patterns, at least at certain scales. Our result indicated a strong scale-dependency of several relationships, and highlighted the importance of the scale ratio when studying biodiversity patterns. Thus, our results bring new insights on the spatial patterns of biodiversity and the possible mechanisms allowing species coexistence. They suggest that biodiversity patterns cannot be explained by any single theory proposed in the literature, but a combination of theories is sufficient. Spatial structure plays a crucial role for all components of biodiversity. Results emphasize the importance of considering multiple spatial scales and multiple scale components when studying species diversity.

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Que ce soit d'un point de vue, urbanistique, social, ou encore de la gouvernance, l'évolution des villes est un défi majeur de nos sociétés contemporaines. En offrant la possibilité d'analyser des configurations spatiales et sociales existantes ou en tentant de simuler celles à venir, les systèmes d'information géographique sont devenus incontournables dans la gestion et dans la planification urbaine. En cinq ans la population de la ville de Lausanne est passée de 134'700 à 140'570 habitants, alors que les effectifs de l'école publique ont crû de 12'200 à 13'500 élèves. Cet accroissement démographique associé à un vaste processus d'harmonisation de la scolarité obligatoire en Suisse ont amené le Service des écoles à mettre en place et à développer en collaboration avec l'université de Lausanne des solutions SIG à même de répondre à différentes problématiques spatiales. Établies en 1989, les limites des établissements scolaires (bassins de recrutement) ont dû être redéfinies afin de les réadapter aux réalités d'un paysage urbain et politique en pleine mutation. Dans un contexte de mobilité et de durabilité, un système d'attribution de subventions pour les transports publics basé sur la distance domicile-école et sur l'âge des écoliers, a été conçu. La réalisation de ces projets a nécessité la construction de bases de données géographiques ainsi que l'élaboration de nouvelles méthodes d'analyses exposées dans ce travail. Cette thèse s'est ainsi faite selon une dialectique permanente entre recherches théoriques et nécessités pratiques. La première partie de ce travail porte sur l'analyse du réseau piéton de la ville. La morphologie du réseau est investiguée au travers d'approches multi-échelles du concept de centralité. La première conception, nommée sinuo-centralité ("straightness centrality"), stipule qu'être central c'est être relié aux autres en ligne droite. La deuxième, sans doute plus intuitive, est intitulée centricité ("closeness centrality") et exprime le fait qu'être central c'est être proche des autres (fig. 1, II). Les méthodes développées ont pour but d'évaluer la connectivité et la marchabilité du réseau, tout en suggérant de possibles améliorations (création de raccourcis piétons). Le troisième et dernier volet théorique expose et développe un algorithme de transport optimal régularisé. En minimisant la distance domicile-école et en respectant la taille des écoles, l'algorithme permet de réaliser des scénarios d'enclassement. L'implémentation des multiplicateurs de Lagrange offre une visualisation du "coût spatial" des infrastructures scolaires et des lieux de résidence des écoliers. La deuxième partie de cette thèse retrace les aspects principaux de trois projets réalisés dans le cadre de la gestion scolaire. À savoir : la conception d'un système d'attribution de subventions pour les transports publics, la redéfinition de la carte scolaire, ou encore la simulation des flux d'élèves se rendant à l'école à pied. *** May it be from an urbanistic, a social or from a governance point of view, the evolution of cities is a major challenge in our contemporary societies. By giving the opportunity to analyse spatial and social configurations or attempting to simulate future ones, geographic information systems cannot be overlooked in urban planning and management. In five years, the population of the city of Lausanne has grown from 134'700 to 140'570 inhabitants while the numbers in public schools have increased from 12'200 to 13'500 students. Associated to a considerable harmonisation process of compulsory schooling in Switzerland, this demographic rise has driven schooling services, in collaboration with the University of Lausanne, to set up and develop GIS capable of tackling various spatial issues. Established in 1989, the school districts had to be altered so that they might fit the reality of a continuously changing urban and political landscape. In a context of mobility and durability, an attribution system for public transport subventions based on the distance between residence and school and on the age of the students was designed. The implementation of these projects required the built of geographical databases as well as the elaboration of new analysis methods exposed in this thesis. The first part of this work focuses on the analysis of the city's pedestrian network. Its morphology is investigated through multi-scale approaches of the concept of centrality. The first conception, named the straightness centrality, stipulates that being central is being connected to the others in a straight line. The second, undoubtedly more intuitive, is called closeness centrality and expresses the fact that being central is being close to the others. The goal of the methods developed is to evaluate the connectivity and walkability of the network along with suggesting possible improvements (creation of pedestrian shortcuts).The third and final theoretical section exposes and develops an algorithm of regularised optimal transport. By minimising home to school distances and by respecting school capacity, the algorithm enables the production of student allocation scheme. The implementation of the Lagrange multipliers offers a visualisation of the spatial cost associated to the schooling infrastructures and to the student home locations. The second part of this thesis recounts the principal aspects of three projects fulfilled in the context of school management. It focuses namely on the built of an attribution system for public transport subventions, a school redistricting process and on simulating student pedestrian flows.

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In recent years, multi-atlas fusion methods have gainedsignificant attention in medical image segmentation. Inthis paper, we propose a general Markov Random Field(MRF) based framework that can perform edge-preservingsmoothing of the labels at the time of fusing the labelsitself. More specifically, we formulate the label fusionproblem with MRF-based neighborhood priors, as an energyminimization problem containing a unary data term and apairwise smoothness term. We present how the existingfusion methods like majority voting, global weightedvoting and local weighted voting methods can be reframedto profit from the proposed framework, for generatingmore accurate segmentations as well as more contiguoussegmentations by getting rid of holes and islands. Theproposed framework is evaluated for segmenting lymphnodes in 3D head and neck CT images. A comparison ofvarious fusion algorithms is also presented.

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Initial topography and inherited structural discontinuities are known to play a dominant role in rock slope stability. Previous 2-D physical modeling results demonstrated that even if few preexisting fractures are activated/propagated during gravitational failure all of those heterogeneities had a great influence on mobilized volume and its kinematics. The question we address in the present study is to determine if such a result is also observed in 3-D. As in 2-D previous models we examine geologically stable model configuration, based upon the well documented landslide at Randa, Switzerland. The 3-D models consisted of a homogeneous material in which several fracture zones were introduced in order to study simplified but realistic configurations of discontinuities (e.g. based on natural example rather than a parametric study). Results showed that the type of gravitational failure (deep-seated landslide or sequential failure) and resulting slope morphology evolution are the result of the interplay of initial topography and inherited preexisting fractures (orientation and density). The three main results are i) the initial topography exerts a strong control on gravitational slope failure. Indeed in each tested configuration (even in the isotropic one without fractures) the model is affected by a rock slide, ii) the number of simulated fracture sets greatly influences the volume mobilized and its kinematics, and iii) the failure zone involved in the 1991 event is smaller than the results produced by the analog modeling. This failure may indicate that the zone mobilized in 1991 is potentially only a part of a larger deep-seated landslide and/or wider deep seated gravitational slope deformation.

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Debris flows and related landslide processes occur in many regions all over Norway and pose a significant hazard to inhabited areas. Within the framework of the development of a national debris flows susceptibility map, we are working on a modeling approach suitable for Norway with a nationwide coverage. The discrimination of source areas is based on an index approach, which includes topographic parameters and hydrological settings. For the runout modeling, we use the Flow-R model (IGAR, University of Lausanne), which is based on combined probabilistic and energetic algorithms for the assessment of the spreading of the flow and maximum runout distances. First results for different test areas have shown that runout distances can be modeled reliably. For the selection of source areas, however, additional factors have to be considered, such as the lithological and quaternary geological setting, in order to accommodate the strong variation in debris flow activity in the different geological, geomorphological and climate regions of Norway.

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A factor limiting preliminary rockfall hazard mapping at regional scale is often the lack of knowledge of potential source areas. Nowadays, high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) can account for realistic landscape details even at large scale. With such fine-scale morphological variability, quantitative geomorphometric analyses become a relevant approach for delineating potential rockfall instabilities. Using digital elevation model (DEM)-based ?slope families? concept over areas of similar lithology and cliffs and screes zones available from the 1:25,000 topographic map, a susceptibility rockfall hazard map was drawn up in the canton of Vaud, Switzerland, in order to provide a relevant hazard overview. Slope surfaces over morphometrically-defined thresholds angles were considered as rockfall source zones. 3D modelling (CONEFALL) was then applied on each of the estimated source zones in order to assess the maximum runout length. Comparison with known events and other rockfall hazard assessments are in good agreement, showing that it is possible to assess rockfall activities over large areas from DEM-based parameters and topographical elements.

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Retroelements are important evolutionary forces but can be deleterious if left uncontrolled. Members of the human APOBEC3 family of cytidine deaminases can inhibit a wide range of endogenous, as well as exogenous, retroelements. These enzymes are structurally organized in one or two domains comprising a zinc-coordinating motif. APOBEC3G contains two such domains, only the C terminal of which is endowed with editing activity, while its N-terminal counterpart binds RNA, promotes homo-oligomerization, and is necessary for packaging into human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) virions. Here, we performed a large-scale mutagenesis-based analysis of the APOBEC3G N terminus, testing mutants for (i) inhibition of vif-defective HIV-1 infection and Alu retrotransposition, (ii) RNA binding, and (iii) oligomerization. Furthermore, in the absence of structural information on this domain, we used homology modeling to examine the positions of functionally important residues and of residues found to be under positive selection by phylogenetic analyses of primate APOBEC3G genes. Our results reveal the importance of a predicted RNA binding dimerization interface both for packaging into HIV-1 virions and inhibition of both HIV-1 infection and Alu transposition. We further found that the HIV-1-blocking activity of APOBEC3G N-terminal mutants defective for packaging can be almost entirely rescued if their virion incorporation is forced by fusion with Vpr, indicating that the corresponding region of APOBEC3G plays little role in other aspects of its action against this pathogen. Interestingly, residues forming the APOBEC3G dimer interface are highly conserved, contrasting with the rapid evolution of two neighboring surface-exposed amino acid patches, one targeted by the Vif protein of primate lentiviruses and the other of yet-undefined function.

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Tractography is a class of algorithms aiming at in vivo mapping the major neuronal pathways in the white matter from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. These techniques offer a powerful tool to noninvasively investigate at the macroscopic scale the architecture of the neuronal connections of the brain. However, unfortunately, the reconstructions recovered with existing tractography algorithms are not really quantitative even though diffusion MRI is a quantitative modality by nature. As a matter of fact, several techniques have been proposed in recent years to estimate, at the voxel level, intrinsic microstructural features of the tissue, such as axonal density and diameter, by using multicompartment models. In this paper, we present a novel framework to reestablish the link between tractography and tissue microstructure. Starting from an input set of candidate fiber-tracts, which are estimated from the data using standard fiber-tracking techniques, we model the diffusion MRI signal in each voxel of the image as a linear combination of the restricted and hindered contributions generated in every location of the brain by these candidate tracts. Then, we seek for the global weight of each of them, i.e., the effective contribution or volume, such that they globally fit the measured signal at best. We demonstrate that these weights can be easily recovered by solving a global convex optimization problem and using efficient algorithms. The effectiveness of our approach has been evaluated both on a realistic phantom with known ground-truth and in vivo brain data. Results clearly demonstrate the benefits of the proposed formulation, opening new perspectives for a more quantitative and biologically plausible assessment of the structural connectivity of the brain.

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Recent studies have pointed out a similarity between tectonics and slope tectonic-induced structures. Numerous studies have demonstrated that structures and fabrics previously interpreted as of purely geodynamical origin are instead the result of large slope deformation, and this led in the past to erroneous interpretations. Nevertheless, their limit seems not clearly defined, but it is somehow transitional. Some studies point out continuity between failures developing at surface with upper crust movements. In this contribution, the main studies which examine the link between rock structures and slope movements are reviewed. The aspects regarding model and scale of observation are discussed together with the role of pre-existing weaknesses in the rock mass. As slope failures can develop through progressive failure, structures and their changes in time and space can be recognized. Furthermore, recognition of the origin of these structures can help in avoiding misinterpretations of regional geology. This also suggests the importance of integrating different slope movement classifications based on distribution and pattern of deformation and the application of structural geology techniques. A structural geology approach in the landslide community is a tool that can greatly support the hazard quantification and related risks, because most of the physical parameters, which are used for landslide modeling, are derived from geotechnical tests or the emerging geophysical approaches.

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Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.