Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

Suitability, success and sinks: how do predictions of nesting distributions relate to fitness parameters in high arctic waders?

AimAlthough habitat suitability maps derived from species distribution models (SDMs) are often assumed to highlight locations that can sustain healthy populations over time, the relationship between suitability scores and fitness parameters has rarely been tested thoroughly. LocationZackenberg Valley, north-east Greenland. MethodsUsing 14years of data (1997-2010) representing three wader species (dunlin Calidris alpina, sanderling Calidris alba and ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres), we tested the relationships between modelled suitability and fitness parameters at nesting locations. ResultsAmong the three species examined, only the ruddy turnstone exhibited significant relationships between suitability and nest success, but over time rather than space. During years with extensive snow cover in the landscape, the nesting sites of ruddy turnstone occurred in different habitats than were typically used across years. Moreover, in years with extensive snow cover, the ruddy turnstone initiated nests later and suffered from higher egg predation rates. Main conclusionOur results suggest that SDMs derived from species occurrences that include years of low reproductive success may over-estimate the potential suitable habitat in the landscape. Whenever possible, variation in reproductive success should be considered when building models to inform species' response to environmental change. species' response to environmental change.

Weathering and the mobility of phosphorus in the catchments and forefields of the Rhone and Oberaar glaciers, central Switzerland: Implications for the global phosphorus cycle on glacial-interglacial timescales

In this study we evaluate the dynamics of the biophile element phosphorus (P) in the catchment and proglacial areas of the Rhone and Oberaar glaciers (central Switzerland). We analysed erosion and dissolution rates of P-containing minerals in the subglacial environment by sampling water and suspended sediment in glacier outlets during three ablation and two accumulation seasons. We also quantified biogeochemical weathering rates of detrital P in proglacial sedimentary deposits using two chronosequences of samples of fresh, suspended, material obtained from the Oberaar and Rhone water outlets, Little-Ice-Age (LIA) moraines and Younger Dryas (YD) tills in each catchment. Subglacial P weathering is mainly a physical process and detrital P represents more than 99%, of the precipitation-corrected total P denudation flux (234 and 540 kg km(-2) yr(-1) for the Rhone and Oberaar catchments, respectively). The calculated detrital P flux rates are three to almost five times higher than the world average flux. The precipitation-corrected soluble reactive P (SRP) flux corresponds to 1.88-1.99 kg km(-2) yr(-1) (Rhone) and 2.12-2.44 kg km(-2) yr(-1) (Oberaar), respectively. These fluxes are comparable to those of tropical rivers draining transport-limited, tectonically inactive weathering areas. In order to evaluate the efficiency of detrital P weathering in the Rhone and Oberaar proglacial areas, we systematically graded apatite grains extracted from the chronosequence in each catchment relative to weathering-induced changes in their surface morphologies (grades 1-4). Fresh apatite grains are heavily indented and dissolution rounded (grade 1). LIA grains from two 0-10 cm deep moraine samples show extensive dissolution etching, similar to surface grains from the YD profile (mean grades 2.7, 3.5 and 3.5, respectively). In these proglacial deposits, the weathering front deepens progressively as a function of time due to biocorrosion in the evolving acidic pedosphere, with mechanical indentations on grains acting as sites of preferential dissolution. We also measured iron-bound, organic and detrital P concentrations in the chronosequence and show that organic and iron-bound P has almost completely replaced detrital P in the top layers of the YD profiles. Detrital P weathering rates are calculated as 3 10 and 280 kg km(-2) yr(-1) for LIA moraines and 10 kg km(-2) yr(-1) for YD tills. During the first 300 years of glacial sediment exposure P dissolution rates are shown to be approximately 70 times higher than the mean global dissolved P flux from ice-free continents. After 11.6 kyr the flux is 2.5 times the global mean. These data strengthen the argument for substantial changes in the global dissolved P flux on glacial-interglacial timescales. A crude extrapolation from the data described here suggests that the global dissolved P flux may increase by 40-45% during the first few hundred years of a deglaciation phase

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2011.

Background: Mortality figures become available after some years.Materials and methods: Using the World Health Organization mortality and population data, we estimated numbers of deaths in 2011 from all cancers and selected sites for the European Union (EU) and six major countries, by fitting a joinpoint model to 5-year age-specific numbers of deaths. Age-standardized rates were computed using EUROSTAT population estimates.Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths in the EU in 2011 was 1 281 436, with standardized rates of 143/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. Poland had the highest rates, with smaller falls over recent periods. Declines in mortality for major sites including stomach, colorectum, breast, uterus, prostate and leukemias, plus male lung cancer, will continue until 2011, and a trend reversal or a leveling off is predicted where upward trends were previously observed. Female lung cancer rates are increasing in all major EU countries except the UK, where it is the first cause of cancer death, as now in Poland. The increasing pancreatic cancer trends in women observed up to 2004 have likely leveled off.Conclusions: Despite falls in rates, absolute numbers of cancer deaths are stable in Europe. The gap between Western and former nonmarket economy countries will likely persist.

Lung cancer mortality in European men: Trends and predictions.

Lung cancer mortality in men from the European Union (EU) peaked in the late 1980s at an age-standardised (world standard population) rate over 53/100,000 and declined subsequently to reach 44/100,000 in the early 2000s. To provide a comprehensive picture of recent trends in male lung cancer mortality in Europe, we analyzed available data from the World Health Organization up to 2009 and predicted future rates to 2015. Lung cancer mortality rates in EU men continued to fall over recent years, to reach a value of 41.1/100,000 in 2005-2009. The fall was similar at all-ages and in middle-aged men (less than 2% per year over most recent years), but was appreciably larger in young men (aged 20-44years, over 5% per year). A favourable trend is thus likely to be maintained in the foreseeable future, although the predicted overall EU rate in 2015 is still over 35/100,000, i.e., higher than the US rate in 2007 (33.7/100,000). Over most recent calendar years, overall male lung cancer rates were around 35-40/100,000 in western Europe, as compared to over 50/100,000 in central and eastern Europe. Within western Europe, lung cancer rates were lower in northern countries such as Sweden, but also Finland and the UK (below 30/100,000), where the tobacco-related epidemic started earlier and rates have long been declining, whereas mortality was high in Belgium (51.6), France (42.3), the Netherlands and Spain (around 43.0), where the epidemic started later but is persisting. Widespread measures for smoking control and cessation in middle-aged European men, i.e., in the generations where smoking prevalence used to be high, would lead to appreciable reductions in male lung cancer mortality in the near future. This is particularly urgent in central and eastern European countries.

Activities of daily living with reverse prostheses: importance of scapular compensation for functional mobility of the shoulder.

HYPOTHESIS: The nonanatomical design of reverse shoulder prostheses induce medial displacement of the center of rotation, impingements and may reduce the mobility of the shoulder. The aim of this study is to test the hypothesis that during activities of daily living functional mobility of the shoulder can be restored by scapular compensation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A numerical 3-dimensional model was developed to reproduce the movement of the scapula and humerus, during 4 activities of daily living measured experimentally. This hypothesis was tested in 4 configurations of the aequalis reverse prosthesis (standard 36-mm glenosphere, 42-mm glenosphere, lateralized 36-mm glenosphere, lateralized Bony Increased-Offset Reverse Shoulder Arthroplasty [BIO-RSA]), which were implanted in the virtual model. All impingement positions were evaluated, as the required scapular compensation to avoid impingements. RESULTS: With the 36-mm glenosphere, impingements occurred only for rest of hand to back-pocket positions. The 42-mm partly improved the mobility. The 2 lateralized glenospheres were free of impingement. When impingements occurred, the scapular compensation was less than 10°. CONCLUSION: Most reverse prostheses impingements reported in clinical and biomechanical studies can be avoided, either by scapular compensation or by a glenosphere lateralization. After reverse shoulder arthroplasty, a fraction of the mobility of the gleno-humeral is transferred to the scapulo-thoracic joint.

Temporal trends in intergenerational social mobility in Switzerland: A cohort study of men and women born between 1912 and 1974

The central question addressed in this paper is to what extent the influence of social origin on life chances has changed over time for both men and women. In order to capture this change, intergenerational social mobility of eight different birth-cohorts, covering most of the entire twentieth century, is analysed using a unique collection of twelve Swiss national population sample surveys. The main results show that social mobility has remained constant across cohorts born in 1912 and those born in 1974. This suggests that unlike some other industrialised countries, inequality based on social origin is persistent in Switzerland.

Lung cancer mortality in European women: trends and predictions.

Female lung cancer mortality increased by 50% between the mid 1960s and the early 2000s in the European Union (EU). To monitor the current lung cancer epidemic in European women, we analyzed mortality trends in 33 European countries between 1970 and 2009 and estimated rates for the year 2015 using data from the World Health Organization. Female lung cancer mortality has been increasing up to recent calendar years in most European countries, with the exceptions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with relatively low rates, and the UK, Iceland and Ireland, where high rates were reached in mid/late 1990s to leveled off thereafter. In the EU, female lung cancer mortality rates rose over the last decade from 11.3 to 12.7/100,000 (+2.3% per year) at all ages and from 18.6 to 21.5/100,000 (+3.0% per year) in middle-age. A further increase is predicted, to reach 14/100,000 women in 2015. Lung cancer mortality trends have been more favorable over the last decade in young women (20-44 years), particularly in the UK and other former high-risk countries from northern and central/eastern Europe, but also in France, Italy, and Spain where mortality in young women has been increasing up to the early 2000s. In the EU as a whole, mortality at age 20-44 years decreased from 1.6 to 1.4/100,000 (-2.2% per year). Although the female lung cancer epidemic in Europe is still expanding, the epidemic may be controlled through the implementation of effective anti-tobacco measures, and it will probably never reach the top US rates.

Association with coregulators is the major determinant governing peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor mobility in living cells.

The nucleus is an extremely dynamic compartment, and protein mobility represents a key factor in transcriptional regulation. We showed in a previous study that the diffusion of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs), a family of nuclear receptors regulating major cellular and metabolic functions, is modulated by ligand binding. In this study, we combine fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, dual color fluorescence cross-correlation microscopy, and fluorescence resonance energy transfer to dissect the molecular mechanisms controlling PPAR mobility and transcriptional activity in living cells. First, we bring new evidence that in vivo a high percentage of PPARs and retinoid X receptors is associated even in the absence of ligand. Second, we demonstrate that coregulator recruitment (and not DNA binding) plays a crucial role in receptor mobility, suggesting that transcriptional complexes are formed prior to promoter binding. In addition, association with coactivators in the absence of a ligand in living cells, both through the N-terminal AB domain and the AF-2 function of the ligand binding domain, provides a molecular basis to explain PPAR constitutive activity.

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D(2), +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

The contribution of patch topology and demographic parameters to PVA predictions: the case of the European tree frog

Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.