The Exotic Palaeo-Thethys Terrane in Central Iran: New geological data from Anarak, Jandaq and Posht-e-Badam areas

Résumé Le « terrane » d'Anarak-Jandak occupe une position géologique clé au nord-ouest du Microcontinent Centre-East Iranien (CE1M), connecté avec le Bloc du Grand Kavir et la ceinture métamorphique de Sanandaj-Sirjan. Nous discutons ici l'origine de ces différentes unités, reliées jusqu'à présent à des épisodes orogéniques d'âge Précambrien à Paléozoïque inférieur, pour conclure finalement de leur affinité paléotéthysienne. Leur histoire commence par un épisode de rifting d'âge Ordovicien supérieur-Dévonien inférieur, pour se terminer au Trias par la collision des blocs Cimmériens dérivé du Gondwana avec le Bloc du Turan d'affinité asiatique (événement Eocimmérien). La plus importante unité métamorphique affleurant au sud-ouest de la région de Jandak-Anarak-Kaboudan est une épaisse séquence silicoclastique à grains fins contenant des blocs ophiolitiques (marginal-sea-type), et des associations basalte-gabbro à signatures géochimiques de type supra-subduction. Dans la région de Nakhlak, nous avons daté ces gabbros par la méthode U-Pb à 387f0.11 Ma ; les roches métamorphiques pélitiques ont donné des âges de refroidissement Ar-Ar pour la muscovite de 320 à 333 Ma. Ce complexe d'accrétion "varisque" a été métamorphisé dans le faciès schiste vert-amphibolite au cours de l'accrétion de la ceinture granitique d'Airekan, d'âge Cambrien inférieur (549±15 Ma par la méthode U/Pb), qui affleure aujourd'hui à l'extrémité nord-ouest du terrane d'Anarak-Jandak . La subduction vers le nord de l'océan Paléotéthys depuis le Paléazoïque supérieur jusqu'au Trias, a permis l'accumulation de grandes quantités de matériel océanique dans la zone de subduction. Par exemple, une succession de guyots (Anarak, Kaboudan, et Meraji Seamounts) et de hauts sous-marins, entrés en collision oblique avec le prisme d'accrétion, est à l'origine d'un léger métamorphisme de type HP qui affecte ces séries {âges Ar-Ar de 280 à 230 Ma). De plus, le magmatisme bimodal de Chah Gorbeh est caractérisé d'une part par des roches de type trondjémite-gabbros (262 Ma), d'autre part par des laves en coussin de type basaltes alcalins-rhyolites; ces roches magmatiques ont recoupé l'ophiolite d'Anarak lors de la mise en place de cette dernière dans la fosse interne de subduction. Quant au prisme d'accrétion de Doshakh, d'âge essentiellement Permien supérieur, i1 a été accrété le long de la marge continentale et métamorphisé dans le faciès schiste vert. La fermeture de la Paléotéthys s'enregistre finalement par la sédimentation dans le bassin d'avant pays du flysch de Bayazeh, d'âge probable Triasique. Le matériel issu de l'arc magmatique de la Paléotéthys est très bien préservé dans les dépôts infra-arc Dévonien supérieur-Carbonifère de Godar-e-Siah, ainsi que dans la succession d'avant-arc de Nakhlak. Pendant l'intervalle Paléozoïque supérieur-Trias, la région de Jandak a été soumise à un régime extensif de type bassin d'arrière-arc, dont un témoin pourrait être la ceinture ophiolitique d'Arusan, elle-même comparable aux écailles ophiolitiques d'Aghdarband au nord-est de l'Iran. Cet ensemble métamorphique est recoupé par des granites d'arc à collisionnel datés à 215±15 Ma. Dans la région de Yazd, témoin de la marge passive Cimmérienne, la sédimentation syn-rift Silurienne à Dévonienne inférieure a été interrompue pendant l'intervalle Trias moyen-Trias supérieur; il en a été de même pour les dépôts de plate-forme Paléozoïque supérieur. L'érosion, qui dans ce dernier cas a atteint le Permien, pourrait être liée au bombement flexural de la marge passive. La collision finale n'a pas induit de déformations trop importantes, et se caractérise par la mise en place de nappes sur la marge passive. Cet événement est scellé par des dépôts molassique du Lias. D'un point de vue régional, la zone s'étendant actuellement de la Mer Noire au Pamir a été soumise à six épisodes d'extension-compression du Jurassique inférieur (début du l'ouverture en position arrière-arc de la Néotéthys) à l'Eocène moyen. Par exemple, le terrane d'AnarakJandak, probablement situé entre le Kopeh Dagh et la plate-forme nord Afghane, s'est complètement détaché de sa patrie d'origine au début du Crétacé supérieur. Des preuves de cet événement se retrouvent dans les séries de plate-forme de Khur (préservation de séries syn-rift puis de marge passive). Les ophiolites de Nain et de Sabzevar sont de plus interprétée comme un témoin de l'existence de ce bassin d'arrière-arc. Dans l'intervalle Eocène-Oligocène, l'indentation par la plaque indienne de l'Eurasie a été contemporaine de la rotation horaire de fragments de l'ancien microcontinent Iranien et de la formation du CEIM. Cette rotation est responsable du transport du terrane d'Anarak-Jandak vers sa position actuelle en Iran Central, et de la dislocation de Terranes de moindre importance, comme le bloc de Posht-e Badam. Depuis le Miocène supérieur, et à la suite de la collision entre l'Arabie et l'Iran, le ternane d'Anarak-Jandak a subi des déformations liées à l'activité d'une zone de cisaillement dextre parallèle à la suture du Zagros, à l'arrière de l'arc magmatique d'Uromieh-Dokhtar. Résumé large public Le Microcontinent Centre-Est Iranien occupe une position géologique clé au centre de l'Iran. Les différentes unités qui le composent, reliées jusqu'à présent à des épisodes orogéniques d'âge Précambrien à Paléozoïque inférieur, sont maintenant rajeunies et liés à la fermeture de l'océean Paléotéthys. Leur histoire commence par un épisode de rifting d'âge Ordovicien supérieur à Dévonien inférieur, pour se terminer au Trias par la collision des- blocs Cimmériens, dérivés du Gondwana, avec le Bloc du Turan d'affinité asiatique. Dans la marge active asiatique de la Paléotéthys, nous avons daté les restes d'un océan marginal à 387±0.11 Ma. Ce complexe d'accrétion a été métamorphisé au cours de la réaccrétion de la ceinture granitique d'Airekan, d'âge Cambrien inférieur (549±15 Ma), qui affleure aujourd'hui à l'extrémité nord-ouest du « terrane » d'Anarak-Jandak correspondant à la plus grande partie de la région étudiée. Le matériel issu de l'arc magmatique de la Paléotéthys est très bien préservé et daté du Dévonien supérieur-Carbonifère. Pendant l'intervalle Paléozoïque supérieur-Trias, la région a été soumise à un régime extensif de type bassin d'arrière-arc, dont un témoin pourrait être la ceinture ophiolitique d'Arusan, comparable aux écailles ophiolitiques d'Aghdarband au nord-est de l'Iran. Cet ensemble métamorphique est recoupé par des granites datés à 215±15 Ma. La subduction vers le nord de l'océan Paléotéthys depuis le Paléozoïque supérieur jusqu'au Trias, a permis l'accumulation de grandes quantités de matériel océanique dans la zone de subduction. Par exemple, une succession de volcans sous-marins, entrés en collision avec le prisme d'accrétion, est à l'origine d'un léger métamorphisme de type HP qui affecte ces séries (280 à 230 Ma). Quant au prisme d'accrétion de Doshakh, d'âge essentiellement Permien supérieur, il a été mis en place le long de la marge continentale et métamorphisé dans le faciès schiste vert. La fermeture de la Paléotéthys s'enregistre finalement par la sédimentation dans le bassin d'avant pays du flysch de Bayazeh, d'âge Triasique. Dans la région de Yazd, on trouve les témoins de la marge passive Cimmérienne, la sédimentation syn-rift Silurienne à Dévonienne inférieure a été interrompue pendant l'intervalle Trias moyen-Trias supérieur, marqué par la flexuration de la marge passive lorsqu'elle rentra en collision avec la marge active asiatique. Cet événement est scellé par des dépôts molassique à charbon du Lias. Le «terrane» d'Anarak-Jandak, probablement situé à l'origine entre le Kopeh Dagh et la plate-forme nord Afghane, s'est complètement détaché de cette région au début du Crétacé supérieur lors de l'ouverture d'un bassin d'arrière-arc, engendré, cette fois, par la subduction de l'océan Néotéthys situé au sud des blocs cimmériens. Des preuves de cet événement se retrouvent dans les séries syn-rift, puis de marge passive de Khour. Les ophiolites de Nain et de Sabzevar sont interprétées comme un témoin de l'existence de ce bassin d'arrière-arc. Dans l'intervalle Eocène-Oligocène, l'indentation de l'Eurasie par la plaque indienne a été contemporaine de la rotation horaire de fragments de l'ancien microcontinent centre-Iranien. Cette rotation de près de 90° est responsable du transport du « terrane » d'Anarak-Jandak vers sa position actuelle. Abstract The Anarak-Jandaq terrane occupies a strategic geological situation at the north-western part of the Central-East Iranian Microcontinent (CEIM) and in connection with the Great Kavir Block and Sanandaj-Sirjan metamorphic belt. Our recent findings redefine the origin of these mentioned areas so far attributed to the Precambrian-Early Palaeozoic orogenic episodes, to be now directly related to the tectonic evolution of the Palaeo-Tethys Ocean, commenced by Late Ordovician-Early Devonian rifting events and terminated in the Triassic by the Eocimmerian tectonic event due to the collision of the Cimmerian blocks with the Asiatic Turan block. The most distributed metamorphic unit that is exposed from the south-west of Jandaq to the Anarak and Kaboudan areas is a thick and fine grain siliciclastic sequence accompanied by marginal-sea-basin ophiolitic blocks including basalt-gabbro association with supra-subduction-geochemical signature. These gabbros in the Nakhlak area were dated by U/Pb method at 387.6 ± 0.11 Ma and the metamorphic pelitic rocks yielded a range of 320 to 333 Ma muscovite-cooling ages based on 40Ar/39 Ar method. This "Variscan" accretionary complex was metamorphosed in greenschist-amphibolite facies during accretion to the Lower Cambrian Airekan granitic belt (549 ± 15 Ma by U/Pb method) that crops out at the northwestern edge of the Anarak-Jandaq terrane. Continued northward subduction of the Palaeo-Tethys Ocean during the entire Late Palaeozoic-Middle Triassic brought huge amount of oceanic material to the subduction zone. One chain of Carboniferous-Triassic oceanic rises and seamounts (the Anarak, Kaboudan, and Meraji Seamounts) obliquely collided with the accretionary wedge and created a mild HP metamorphic event (280-230 Ma based on 40Ar/39Ar results). Bimodal magmatism of the Chah Gorbeh area is characterized by a 262 Ma trondjemite-gabbro as well as pillow alkalibasalts-rhyolites which intruded the Anarak ophiolite when it was being emplaced within the inner-wall trench. The mainly Late Permian-Triassic Doshakh wedge was accreted along the continent and metamorphosed under lower greenschist facies and the probable Triassic Bayazeh flysch filled the foreland basin during the final closure. The Palaeo-Tethys magmatic arc products have been well preserved in the Late Devonian-Carboniferous Godar-e-Siah intra-arc deposits and the Triassic Nakhlak fore-arc succession. During the Late Palaeozoic-Triassic times, the Jandaq area has been affected by back-arc extension and probably the Arusan ophiolitic belt is the remnant of this narrow basin comparable to the Aqdarband ophiolitic remnant in north-east Iran. This metamorphic belt was intruded by 215 ± 15 Ma arc to collisional granites. In the passive margin of the Cimmerian block, on the Yazd region, the Silurian-Early Devonian syn-rift succession as well as the nearly continuous Upper Palaeozoic platform-type deposition was interrupted during the Middle to Late Triassic time, local erosion down to Devonian levels may be related to flexural bulge erosion. The collision event was not so strong to generate intensive deformation but was accompanied by some nappe thrusting onto the passive margin. It is finally unconformably covered by Liassic continental molassic deposits. Related to the onset of Neo-Tethyan back-arc opening in Early Jurassic to Mid-Eocene times, six periods of extensional-compressional events have differently influenced an elongated area, extending from the West Black Sea to Pamir. The Anarak-Jandaq terrane which was situated somewhere in this affected area, probably between the Kopeh Dagh and North Afghan platform, was completely detached from its source at the beginning of the Late Cretaceous

Spontaneous pre-stimulus fluctuations in the activity of right fronto-parietal areas influence inhibitory control performance.

Inhibitory control refers to the ability to suppress planned or ongoing cognitive or motor processes. Electrophysiological indices of inhibitory control failure have been found to manifest even before the presentation of the stimuli triggering the inhibition, suggesting that pre-stimulus brain-states modulate inhibition performance. However, previous electrophysiological investigations on the state-dependency of inhibitory control were based on averaged event-related potentials (ERPs), a method eliminating the variability in the ongoing brain activity not time-locked to the event of interest. These studies thus left unresolved whether spontaneous variations in the brain-state immediately preceding unpredictable inhibition-triggering stimuli also influence inhibitory control performance. To address this question, we applied single-trial EEG topographic analyses on the time interval immediately preceding NoGo stimuli in conditions where the responses to NoGo trials were correctly inhibited [correct rejection (CR)] vs. committed [false alarms (FAs)] during an auditory spatial Go/NoGo task. We found a specific configuration of the EEG voltage field manifesting more frequently before correctly inhibited responses to NoGo stimuli than before FAs. There was no evidence for an EEG topography occurring more frequently before FAs than before CR. The visualization of distributed electrical source estimations of the EEG topography preceding successful response inhibition suggested that it resulted from the activity of a right fronto-parietal brain network. Our results suggest that the fluctuations in the ongoing brain activity immediately preceding stimulus presentation contribute to the behavioral outcomes during an inhibitory control task. Our results further suggest that the state-dependency of sensory-cognitive processing might not only concern perceptual processes, but also high-order, top-down inhibitory control mechanisms.

Recurrent stroke predictors differ in medically treated patients with pathogenic vs. other PFOs.

OBJECTIVE: To examine predictors of stroke recurrence in patients with a high vs a low likelihood of having an incidental patent foramen ovale (PFO) as defined by the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score. METHODS: Patients in the RoPE database with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and PFO were classified as having a probable PFO-related stroke (RoPE score of >6, n = 647) and others (RoPE score of ≤6 points, n = 677). We tested 15 clinical, 5 radiologic, and 3 echocardiographic variables for associations with stroke recurrence using Cox survival models with component database as a stratification factor. An interaction with RoPE score was checked for the variables that were significant. RESULTS: Follow-up was available for 92%, 79%, and 57% at 1, 2, and 3 years. Overall, a higher recurrence risk was associated with an index TIA. For all other predictors, effects were significantly different in the 2 RoPE score categories. For the low RoPE score group, but not the high RoPE score group, older age and antiplatelet (vs warfarin) treatment predicted recurrence. Conversely, echocardiographic features (septal hypermobility and a small shunt) and a prior (clinical) stroke/TIA were significant predictors in the high but not low RoPE score group. CONCLUSION: Predictors of recurrence differ when PFO relatedness is classified by the RoPE score, suggesting that patients with CS and PFO form a heterogeneous group with different stroke mechanisms. Echocardiographic features were only associated with recurrence in the high RoPE score group.

Adverse obstetrical and neonatal outcomes in elective and medically indicated inductions of labor at term.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes after medically indicated and elective labor induction. Both induction groups were also compared to women with spontaneous onset of labor. METHOD: Retrospective cohort study of 13 971 women with live, cephalic singleton pregnancies who delivered at term (from 1997 to 2007). Adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes were compared between women who underwent an induction of labor in the presence and absence of standard medical indications. RESULTS: Among 5090 patients with induced labor, 2059 (40.5%) underwent elective labor inductions, defined as inductions without any medical or obstetrical indication. Risks of cesarean or instrumental delivery, postpartum hemorrhage >500 ml, prolonged maternal hospitalization >6 days, Apgar<7 at 5 min of life, arterial umbilical cord pH<7.1, admission in neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and prolonged NICU hospitalization >7 days were similar between nulliparous who underwent elective and medical labor induction. Similar results were obtained for multiparous. All the above mentioned risks, but the Apgar<7 at 5 min of life, were significantly increased after induction in comparison to spontaneous labor. CONCLUSION: Elective induction of labor carries similar obstetrical and neonatal risks as a medically indicated labor induction. Thus, elective induction of labor should be strongly discouraged.

Patterns of calcium-binding proteins support parallel and hierarchical organization of human auditory areas.

The human primary auditory cortex (AI) is surrounded by several other auditory areas, which can be identified by cyto-, myelo- and chemoarchitectonic criteria. We report here on the pattern of calcium-binding protein immunoreactivity within these areas. The supratemporal regions of four normal human brains (eight hemispheres) were processed histologically, and serial sections were stained for parvalbumin, calretinin or calbindin. Each calcium-binding protein yielded a specific pattern of labelling, which differed between auditory areas. In AI, defined as area TC [see C. von Economo and L. Horn (1930) Z. Ges. Neurol. Psychiatr.,130, 678-757], parvalbumin labelling was dark in layer IV; several parvalbumin-positive multipolar neurons were distributed in layers III and IV. Calbindin yielded dark labelling in layers I-III and V; it revealed numerous multipolar and pyramidal neurons in layers II and III. Calretinin labelling was lighter than that of parvalbumin or calbindin in AI; calretinin-positive bipolar and bitufted neurons were present in supragranular layers. In non-primary auditory areas, the intensity of labelling tended to become progressively lighter while moving away from AI, with qualitative differences between the cytoarchitectonically defined areas. In analogy to non-human primates, our results suggest differences in intrinsic organization between auditory areas that are compatible with parallel and hierarchical processing of auditory information.

State power and protected areas: Dynamics and contradictions of forest conservation in Madhya Pradesh, India

The traditionally coercive and state-controlled governance of protected areas for nature conservation in developing countries has in many cases undergone change in the context of widespread decentralization and liberalization. This article examines an emerging "mixed" (coercive, community- and market-oriented) conservation approach in managed-resource protected areas and its effects on state power through a case study on forest protection in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. The findings suggest that imperfect decentralization and partial liberalization resulted in changed forms, rather than uniform loss, of state power. A forest co-management program paradoxically strengthened local capacity and influence of the Forest Department, which generally maintained its territorial and knowledge-based control over forests and timber management. Furthermore, deregulation and reregulation enabled the state to withdraw from uneconomic activities but also implied reduced place-based control of non-timber forest products. Generally, the new policies and programs contributed to the separation of livelihoods and forests in Madhya Pradesh. The article concludes that regulatory, community- and market-based initiatives would need to be better coordinated to lead to more effective nature conservation and positive livelihood outcomes.

Dynamic properties of human brain structure: learning-related changes in cortical areas and associated fiber connections.

Recent findings in neuroscience suggest that adult brain structure changes in response to environmental alterations and skill learning. Whereas much is known about structural changes after intensive practice for several months, little is known about the effects of single practice sessions on macroscopic brain structure and about progressive (dynamic) morphological alterations relative to improved task proficiency during learning for several weeks. Using T1-weighted and diffusion tensor imaging in humans, we demonstrate significant gray matter volume increases in frontal and parietal brain areas following only two sessions of practice in a complex whole-body balancing task. Gray matter volume increase in the prefrontal cortex correlated positively with subject's performance improvements during a 6 week learning period. Furthermore, we found that microstructural changes of fractional anisotropy in corresponding white matter regions followed the same temporal dynamic in relation to task performance. The results make clear how marginal alterations in our ever changing environment affect adult brain structure and elucidate the interrelated reorganization in cortical areas and associated fiber connections in correlation with improvements in task performance.

Auditory Neurons with Transitory Axons to Visual Areas Form Short Permanent Projections.

The kitten's auditory cortex (including the first and second auditory fields AI and AII) is known to send transient axons to either ipsi- or contralateral visual areas 17 and 18. By the end of the first postnatal month the transitory axons, but not their neurons of origin, are eliminated. Here we investigated where these neurons project after the elimination of the transitory axon. Eighteen kittens received early (postnatal day (pd) 2 - 5) injections of long lasting retrograde fluorescent traces in visual areas 17 and 18 and late (pd 35 - 64) injections of other retrograde fluorescent tracers in either hemisphere, mostly in areas known to receive projections from AI and AII in the adult cat. The middle ectosylvian gyrus was analysed for double-labelled neurons in the region corresponding approximately to AI and AII. Late injections in the contralateral (to the analysed AI, AII) hemisphere including all of the known auditory areas, as well as some visual and 'association' areas, did not relabel neurons which had had transient projections to either ipsi- or contralateral visual areas 17 - 18. Thus, AI and AII neurons after eliminating their transient juvenile projections to visual areas 17 and 18 do not project to the other hemisphere. In contrast, relabelling was obtained with late injections in several locations in the ipsilateral hemisphere; it was expressed as per cent of the population labelled by the early injections. Few neurons (0 - 2.5%) were relabelled by large injections in the caudal part of the posterior ectosylvian gyrus and the adjacent posterior suprasylvian sulcus (areas DP, P, VP). Multiple injections in the middle ectosylvian gyrus relabelled a considerably larger percentage of neurons (13%). Single small injections in the middle ectosylvian gyrus (areas AI, AII), the caudal part of the anterior ectosylvian gyrus and the rostral part of the posterior ectosylvian gyrus relabelled 3.1 - 7.0% of neurons. These neurons were generally near (&lt;2.0 mm) the outer border of the late injection sites. Neurons with transient projections to ipsi- or contralateral visual areas 17 and 18 were relabelled in similar proportions by late injections at any given location. Thus, AI or AII neurons which send a transitory axon to ipsi- or contralateral visual areas 17 and 18 are most likely to form short permanent cortical connections. In that respect, they are similar to medial area 17 neurons that form transitory callosal axons and short permanent axons to ipsilateral visual areas 17 and 18.

Geomorphological heritage, conservation and promotion in high-alpine protected areas

In recent decades, recognition of both cultural and natural heritage has grown in the Alps. This tendency illustrates a collective identity building (local, national, alpine), but it also highlights, in the current context of global change, a renewed reflection of man's relationship with the environment. Thus, a fundamental and scientific intrinsic value (as a part of wilderness) tends to be recognized in the natural heritage as a whole. However, geoheritage (and geodiversity) is still often perceived as a secondary natural component, compared with bioheritage (and biodiversity). In this context, we study the geomorphological heritage (landforms and the processes that shape them) of Les Contamines-Montjoie Natural Reserve. Indeed, despite the high geomorphological richness (especially glacial) of the reserve, which covers more than 4000 ha of the Mont-Blanc Massif, local recognition of this heritage is still limited. In order to recognize and protect it, and starting with a scientific study, this research identifies the main local richness and assesses the geotourist and educational potentials. Finally, several tools to educate and promote geoheritage (educational paths and website) are proposed.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.