Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale has been the subject of various studies. The complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of process-based models for a first assessment. GISbased approaches associating an automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading may provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at the regional scale. The use of a digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, for the Canton de Vaud territory (Switzerland), a lithological map and a land use map, has allowed automatic identification of the potential source areas. The spreading estimates are based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations that allow to define the maximal runout distance of a debris flow.

A Modulated Closed Form solution for Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping - A thorough evaluation and comparison to iterative methods based on edge prior knowledge.

The aim of this study is to perform a thorough comparison of quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) techniques and their dependence on the assumptions made. The compared methodologies were: two iterative single orientation methodologies minimizing the l2, l1TV norm of the prior knowledge of the edges of the object, one over-determined multiple orientation method (COSMOS) and anewly proposed modulated closed-form solution (MCF). The performance of these methods was compared using a numerical phantom and in-vivo high resolution (0.65mm isotropic) brain data acquired at 7T using a new coil combination method. For all QSM methods, the relevant regularization and prior-knowledge parameters were systematically changed in order to evaluate the optimal reconstruction in the presence and absence of a ground truth. Additionally, the QSM contrast was compared to conventional gradient recalled echo (GRE) magnitude and R2* maps obtained from the same dataset. The QSM reconstruction results of the single orientation methods show comparable performance. The MCF method has the highest correlation (corrMCF=0.95, r(2)MCF =0.97) with the state of the art method (COSMOS) with additional advantage of extreme fast computation time. The l-curve method gave the visually most satisfactory balance between reduction of streaking artifacts and over-regularization with the latter being overemphasized when the using the COSMOS susceptibility maps as ground-truth. R2* and susceptibility maps, when calculated from the same datasets, although based on distinct features of the data, have a comparable ability to distinguish deep gray matter structures.

Inter-informant agreement and prevalence estimates for substance use disorders: direct interview versus family history method.

OBJECTIVES: Family studies typically use multiple sources of information on each individual including direct interviews and family history information. The aims of the present study were to: (1) assess agreement for diagnoses of specific substance use disorders between direct interviews and the family history method; (2) compare prevalence estimates according to the two methods; (3) test strategies to approximate prevalence estimates according to family history reports to those based on direct interviews; (4) determine covariates of inter-informant agreement; and (5) identify covariates that affect the likelihood of reporting disorders by informants. METHODS: Analyses were based on family study data which included 1621 distinct informant (first-degree relatives and spouses) - index subject pairs. RESULTS: Our main findings were: (1) inter-informant agreement was fair to good for all substance disorders, except for alcohol abuse; (2) the family history method underestimated the prevalence of drug but not alcohol use disorders; (3) lowering diagnostic thresholds for drug disorders and combining multiple family histories increased the accuracy of prevalence estimates for these disorders according to the family history method; (4) female sex of index subjects was associated with higher agreement for nearly all disorders; and (5) informants who themselves had a history of the same substance use disorder were more likely to report this disorder in their relatives, which entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation. CONCLUSION: Our findings have important implications for the best-estimate procedure applied in family studies.

Coronary heart disease in primary care: accuracy of medical history and physical findings in patients with chest pain - a study protocol for a systematic review with individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care, with coronary heart disease (CHD) being the most concerning of many potential causes. Systematic reviews on the sensitivity and specificity of symptoms and signs summarize the evidence about which of them are most useful in making a diagnosis. Previous meta-analyses are dominated by studies of patients referred to specialists. Moreover, as the analysis is typically based on study-level data, the statistical analyses in these reviews are limited while meta-analyses based on individual patient data can provide additional information. Our patient-level meta-analysis has three unique aims. First, we strive to determine the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for myocardial ischemia in primary care. Second, we investigate associations between study- or patient-level characteristics and measures of diagnostic accuracy. Third, we aim to validate existing clinical prediction rules for diagnosing myocardial ischemia in primary care. This article describes the methods of our study and six prospective studies of primary care patients with chest pain. Later articles will describe the main results. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis of studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing coronary heart disease in primary care. We will perform bivariate analyses to determine the sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios of individual symptoms and signs and multivariate analyses to explore the diagnostic value of an optimal combination of all symptoms and signs based on all data of all studies. We will validate existing clinical prediction rules from each of the included studies by calculating measures of diagnostic accuracy separately by study. DISCUSSION: Our study will face several methodological challenges. First, the number of studies will be limited. Second, the investigators of original studies defined some outcomes and predictors differently. Third, the studies did not collect the same standard clinical data set. Fourth, missing data, varying from partly missing to fully missing, will have to be dealt with.Despite these limitations, we aim to summarize the available evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing CHD in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (University of York): CRD42011001170.

Advanced mapping of environmental data: Geostatistics, Machine Learning and Bayesian Maximum Entropy

This book combines geostatistics and global mapping systems to present an up-to-the-minute study of environmental data. Featuring numerous case studies, the reference covers model dependent (geostatistics) and data driven (machine learning algorithms) analysis techniques such as risk mapping, conditional stochastic simulations, descriptions of spatial uncertainty and variability, artificial neural networks (ANN) for spatial data, Bayesian maximum entropy (BME), and more.

The Future of the Deuteronomistic History

The present debate on the so-called "Deuteronomistic History" has become quite confusing and in recent years more and more scholars are inclined to deny the existence of a Deuteronomistic History as elaborated by Martin Noth or at least to modify this thesis radically. The contributions in this volume reflect the present state of discussion about the Deuteronomistic History. With one exception they have all been presented and discussed in three special sessions dedicated to "Deuteronomism" during the SBL International Meeting in Lausanne (July 1997). Three topics were treated: "The Future of the Deuteronomistic History", "Identity and Literary Strategies of the Deuteronomists", "Deuteronomism and the Hebrew Bible". The contributors are: R. Albertz, A.G. Auld, M. Bauks, W. Dietrich, D. Edelman, F. Garcia Lopez, E.A. Knauf, G. Knoppers, S.K. McKenzie, C. Nihan, T.C. Römer, N.H. Rösel, J. Van Seters and J. Vermeylen. Each contribution offers a valuable entry into one of the most important discussions of Old Testament scholarship at the end of the twentieth century.

Television before TV : a transnational history of an experimental medium on display, 1928 - 1939

Dès le milieu des années 1920 et le développement des premiers prototypes fonctionnels, la télévision se fait objet d'exposition. La nouvelle technologie est montrée à des foires industrielles et dans des grands magasins, à des expositions universelles et nationales : exposée, la télévision devient un mass media avant même qu'elle ne diffuse des émissions régulières. En étudiant les présentations publiques de la télévision en Allemagne, en Grande-Bretagne et aux Etats-Unis entre 1928 - date de l'ouverture des premières expositions annuelles dans les trois pays - et 1939 - moment de l'interruption de celles-ci suite à l'éclatement de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale - Television before TV montre que les lieux où le médium rencontre son premier public constituent les mêmes espaces qui, rétrospectivement, permettent de comprendre son avènement. Cette recherche propose ainsi de nouvelles pistes pour l'histoire des médias en interrogeant la définition de la télévision en tant que médium du privé. Elle rappelle l'importance historique de l'espace public pour la « vision à distance » et, dépassant la perspective nationale, reconstitue les différences et similarités techniques, médiatiques et institutionnelles de la télévision allemande, américaine et britannique dans l'entre-deux-guerres. Développée dans un contexte qui est simultanément nationaliste et nourri d'échanges et de compétitions internationales, la télévision sert de comparatif dans les rivalités entre pays, mais stimule également la circulation de savoir-faire et de personnes. Sa forte valeur symbolique comme emblème du progrès scientifique et, dans le cas allemand, comme preuve de la modernité du régime national-socialiste se traduit dans les salles d'expositions par des scénographies souvent innovatrices, dont les photographies et descriptions se propagent au-delà de la presse locale. Au centre d'un réseau discursif et représentationnel, les expositions jouent alors un rôle essentiel pour la construction sociale, politique et culturelle de la télévision. Remplaçant l'analyse de textes audiovisuels par l'étude de la machine exposée, ma recherche reformule la question bazinienne de qu'est-ce que la télévision ? pour demander où le médium se situe-t-il ? Cette prémisse méthodologique permet de contourner une évaluation qualitative de la technologie qui déplorerait ses multiples imperfections, et éclaire d'un nouveau jour des dispositifs télévisuels qui, même sans programme, intègrent un univers voué à la culture de consommation et du loisir.

Functional mapping of the human visual cortex with intravoxel incoherent motion MRI.

Functional imaging with intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is demonstrated. Images were acquired at 3 Tesla using a standard Stejskal-Tanner diffusion-weighted echo-planar imaging sequence with multiple b-values. Cerebro-spinal fluid signal, which is highly incoherent, was suppressed with an inversion recovery preparation pulse. IVIM microvascular perfusion parameters were calculated according to a two-compartment (vascular and non-vascular) diffusion model. The results obtained in 8 healthy human volunteers during visual stimulation are presented. The IVIM blood flow related parameter fD* increased 170% during stimulation in the visual cortex, and 70% in the underlying white matter.

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Parent-child agreement and prevalence estimates of diagnoses in childhood: direct interview versus family history method.

Diagnostic information on children is typically elicited from both children and their parents. The aims of the present paper were to: (1) compare prevalence estimates according to maternal reports, paternal reports and direct interviews of children [major depressive disorder (MDD), anxiety and attention-deficit and disruptive behavioural disorders]; (2) assess mother-child, father-child and inter-parental agreement for these disorders; (3) determine the association between several child, parent and familial characteristics and the degree of diagnostic agreement or the likelihood of parental reporting; (4) determine the predictive validity of diagnostic information provided by parents and children. Analyses were based on 235 mother-offspring, 189 father-offspring and 128 mother-father pairs. Diagnostic assessment included the Kiddie-schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia (K-SADS) (offspring) and the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies (DIGS) (parents and offspring at follow-up) interviews. Parental reports were collected using the Family History - Research Diagnostic Criteria (FH-RDC). Analyses revealed: (1) prevalence estimates for internalizing disorders were generally lower according to parental information than according to the K-SADS; (2) mother-child and father-child agreement was poor and within similar ranges; (3) parents with a history of MDD or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) reported these disorders in their children more frequently; (4) in a sub-sample followed-up into adulthood, diagnoses of MDD, separation anxiety and conduct disorder at baseline concurred with the corresponding lifetime diagnosis at age 19 according to the child rather than according to the parents. In conclusion, our findings support large discrepancies of diagnostic information provided by parents and children with generally lower reporting of internalizing disorders by parents, and differential reporting of depression and ADHD by parental disease status. Follow-up data also supports the validity of information provided by adolescent offspring.

The complex history of the olive tree: from Late Quaternary diversification of Mediterranean lineages to primary domestication in the northern Levant.

The location and timing of domestication of the olive tree, a key crop in Early Mediterranean societies, remain hotly debated. Here, we unravel the history of wild olives (oleasters), and then infer the primary origins of the domesticated olive. Phylogeography and Bayesian molecular dating analyses based on plastid genome profiling of 1263 oleasters and 534 cultivated genotypes reveal three main lineages of pre-Quaternary origin. Regional hotspots of plastid diversity, species distribution modelling and macrofossils support the existence of three long-term refugia; namely the Near East (including Cyprus), the Aegean area and the Strait of Gibraltar. These ancestral wild gene pools have provided the essential foundations for cultivated olive breeding. Comparison of the geographical pattern of plastid diversity between wild and cultivated olives indicates the cradle of first domestication in the northern Levant followed by dispersals across the Mediterranean basin in parallel with the expansion of civilizations and human exchanges in this part of the world.