Magnetic resonance imaging determinants of intraindividual variability in the elderly: combined analysis of grey and white matter.

Elderly individuals display a rapid age-related increase in intraindividual variability (IIV) of their performances. This phenomenon could reflect subtle changes in frontal lobe integrity. However, structural studies in this field are still missing. To address this issue, we computed an IIV index for a simple reaction time (RT) task and performed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) including voxel based morphometry (VBM) and the tract based spatial statistics (TBSS) analysis of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in 61 adults aged from 22 to 88 years. The age-related IIV increase was associated with decreased fractional anisotropy (FA) as well as increased radial (RD) and mean (MD) diffusion in the main white matter (WM) fiber tracts. In contrast, axial diffusion (AD) and grey matter (GM) densities did not show any significant correlation with IIV. In multivariate models, only FA has an age-independent effect on IIV. These results revealed that WM but not GM changes partly mediated the age-related increase of IIV. They also revealed that the association between WM and IIV could not be only attributed to the damage of frontal lobe circuits but concerned the majority of interhemispheric and intrahemispheric corticocortical connections.

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Developmental and pathological lymphangiogenesis: from models to human disease.

The lymphatic vascular system, the body's second vascular system present in vertebrates, has emerged in recent years as a crucial player in normal and pathological processes. It participates in the maintenance of normal tissue fluid balance, the immune functions of cellular and antigen trafficking and absorption of fatty acids and lipid-soluble vitamins in the gut. Recent scientific discoveries have highlighted the role of lymphatic system in a number of pathologic conditions, including lymphedema, inflammatory diseases, and tumor metastasis. Development of genetically modified animal models, identification of lymphatic endothelial specific markers and regulators coupled with technological advances such as high-resolution imaging and genome-wide approaches have been instrumental in understanding the major steps controlling growth and remodeling of lymphatic vessels. This review highlights the recent insights and developments in the field of lymphatic vascular biology.

Party drug use in techno nights: a field survey among French-speaking Swiss attendees.

This study was designed to investigate the lifestyle and substance use habits of dance music event attendees together with their attitudes toward prevention of substance misuse, harm reduction measures and health-care resources. A total of 302 attendees aged 16-46 years (mean=22.70, S.D.=4.65) were randomly recruited as they entered dance music events. Rates for lifetime and current use (last 30 days) were particularly high for alcohol (95.3% and 86.6%, respectively), cannabis (68.8% and 53.8%, respectively), ecstasy (40.4% and 22.7%, respectively) and cocaine (35.9% and 20.7%, respectively). Several patterns of substance use could be identified: 52% were alcohol and/or cannabis only users, 42% were occasional poly-drug users and 6% were daily poly-drug users. No significant difference was observed between substance use patterns according to gender. Pure techno and open-air events attracted heavier drug users. Psychological problems (such as depressed mood, sleeping problems and anxiety attacks), social problems, dental disorders, accidents and emergency treatment episodes were strongly related to party drug use. Party drug users appeared to be particularly receptive to harm reduction measures, such as on-site emergency staff, pill testing and the availability of cool water, and to prevention of drug use provided via counseling. The greater the involvement in party drug use, the greater the need for prevention personnel to be available for counseling. General practitioners appeared to be key professionals for accessing health-care resources.

Extremal properties of certain risk models

Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Melt topology and chemistry during partial melting in contact aureoles : an experimental study and field example

This study was initiated to investigate partial melting within the high-grade metamorphic rocks beneath the Little Cottonwood contact aureole (Utah, USA), in order to understand the melt generation, melt migration, and geometry of initial melt distribution on grain scale during crustal anatexis. The emplacement of the Little Cottonwood stock produced a contact aureole in the pelitic host rocks of the Big Cottonwood formation (BC). Metamorphic isogrades in pelitic rocks range form biotite to 2nd sillimanite grade as a function of distance from the contact. Migmatites are restricted to the highest grade and resulted form partial melting of the BC formation rocks. First melt was produced by a combined muscovite/biotite dehydration reaction in the sillimanite + k-feldspar stability field. Melt extraction from the pelites resulted in restites (magnetite + cordierite + alumosilicate ± biotite) surrounded by feldspar enriched quartzite zones. This texture is the result of gradual infiltration of partial melts into the quartzite. Larger, discrete melt accumulation occurred in extensional or transpressional domains such as boudin necks, veins, and ductile shear zones. Melt composition are Si02- rich, crystallized as pegmatites, and apparently were very mobile. They were able to infiltrate the quartzite pervaisivly. These melts are similar in composition to first melts produced in the hydrothermal partial melt experiments at 2kbar between 700 - 800°C on fine grained high metamorphic rocks (andalusite-cordierited-biotite-zone) of the BC formation. The experimental melts are water rich and in disequilibrium with the melting rock. Initial melt composition is heterogeneous for short run duration, reflective a lack of chemical equilibrium between individual melt pools. Rock core scale heterogeneity decreased with time indicating partial homogenization of melt compositions. A simultaneous shift of melt composition to higher silica content with time was observed. The silica content of the melt increased due to local melt/mineral reactions. Melt textures indicate that reactive melt transport is most efficient along grain boundaries rimmed by dissimilar grains. Melt heterogeneity resulted in chemical potential gradients which are major driving forces for initial melt migration and govern melt distribution during initial melting. An additional subject of the thesis is the crystal size distributions of opaque minerals in a fine-grained, high-grade meta-pelite of the Big Cottonwood which were obtained from 3D X-ray tomography (uCT) and 2D thin section analysis. µCT delivers accurate size distributions within a restricted range (~ a factor of 20 in size in a single 3D image), while the absolute number of crystals is difficult to obtain from these sparsely distributed, small crystals on the basis of 2D images. Crystal size distributions obtained from both methods are otherwise similar. - Ce travail de recherche a été entrepris dans le but d'étudier les processus de fusion partielle dans les roches fortement métamorphiques de l'auréole de contact de Little Cottonwood (Utah, USA) et ceci afin de comprendre la génération de liquide de fusion, la migration de ces liquides et la géométrie de la distribution initiale des liquides de fusion à l'échelle du grain durant l'anatexie de la croûte. L'emplacement du petit massif intrusif de Little Cottonwood a produit une auréole de contact dans les roches pélitiques encaissantes appartenant à la Foimation du Big Cottonwood (BC). Les isogrades métamorphiques dans les roches pélitiques varient de l'isograde de la biotite à la deuxième isograde de la sillimanite en fonction de la distance par rapport au massif intrusif. Les migmatites sont restreintes aux zones montrant le plus haut degré métamorphique et résultent de la fusion partielle des roches de la Formation de BC. Le premier liquide de fusion a été produit par la réaction de déshydratation combinée de la muscovite et de la biotite dans le champ de stabilité du feldspath potassique Pt de la sillimanite. L'extraction du liquide de fusion des pélites forme des restites (magnétites + cordiérite + aluminosilicate ± biotite) entourées par des zones de quartzites enrichies en feldspath. Cette texture est le résultat de l'infiltration graduelle du liquide de fusion partielle dans les quartzites. Des accumulations distinctes et plus larges de liquide de fusion ont lieu dans des domaines d'extension ou de transpression tels que les boudins, les veines, et les zones de cisaillement ductile. La composition des liquides de fusion est similaire à celle des liquides pegmatoïdes, et ces liquides sont apparemment très mobiles et capables d'infiltrer les quartzites. Ces liquides de fusion ont la même composition que les premiers liquides produits dans les expériences hydrotheunales de fusion partielle à 2kbar et entre 700-800° C sur les roches finement grenues et hautement métamorphiques (andalousite-cordiérite-biotite zone) de la Formation de BC. Les liquides de fusion obtenus expérimentalement sont riches en eau et sont en déséquilibre avec la roche en fusion. La composition initiale des liquides de fusion est hétérogène pour les expériences de courte durée et reflète l'absence d'équilibre chimique entre les différentes zones d'accumulation des liquides de fusion. L'hétérogénéité à l'échelle du noyau s'estompe avec le temps et témoigne de l'homogénéisation de la composition des liquides de fusion. Par ailleurs, on observe parallèlement un décalage de la composition des liquides vers des compositions plus riches en silice au cours du temps. Le contenu en silice des liquides de fusion évolue vers un liquide pegmatitique en raison des réactions liquides/minéraux. Les textures des liquides de fusion indiquent que le transport des liquides est plus efficace le long des bordures de grains bordés par des grains différents. Aucun changement apparent du volume total n'est visible. L'hétérogénéité des liquides s'accompagne d'un gradient de potentiel chimique qui sert de moteur principal à la migration des liquides et à la distribution des liquides durant la fusion. Un sujet complémentaire de ce travail de thèse réside dans l'étude de la distribution de la taille des cristaux opaques dans les pélites finement grenues et fortement métamorphiques de la Formation de Big Cottonwood. Les distributions de taille ont été obtenues suite à l'analyse d'images 3D acquise par tomographie ainsi que par analyse de lames minces. La microtomographie par rayon X fournit une distribution de taille précise sur une marge restreinte (- un facteur de taille 20 dans une seule image 3D), alors que le nombre absolu de cristaux est difficile à obtenir sur la base d'image 2D en raison de la petite taille et de la faible abondance de ces cristaux. Les distributions de taille obtenues par les deux méthodes sont sinon similaire. Abstact: Chemical differentiation of the primitive Earth was due to melting and separation of melts. Today, melt generation and emplacement is still the dominant process for the growth of the crust. Most granite formation is due to partial melting of the lower crust, followed by transport of magma through the crust to the shallow crust where it is emplaced. Partial melting and melt segregation are essential steps before such a granitic magma can ascent through the crust. The chemistry and physics of partial melting and segregation is complex. Hence detailed studies, in which field observations yield critical information that can be compared to experimental observations, are crucial to the understanding of these fundamental processes that lead and are leading to the chemical stratification of the Earth. The research presented in this thesis is a combined field and experimental study of partial melting of high-grade meta-pelitic rocks of the Little Cottonwood contact aureole (Utah, USA). Contact metamorphic rocks are ideal for textural studies of melt generation, since the relatively short times of the metamorphic event prevents much of the recrystallization which plagues textural studies of lower crustal rocks. The purpose of the study is to characterize melt generation, identify melting reactions, and to constrain melt formation, segregation and migration mechanisms. In parallel an experimental study was undertaken to investigate melt in the high grade meta pelitic rocks, to confirm melt composition, and to compare textures of the partial molten rock cores in the absence of deformation. Results show that a pegmatoidal melt is produced by partial melting of the pelitic rocks. This melt is highly mobile. It is capable of pervasive infiltration of the adjacent quartzite. Infiltration results in rounded quartz grains bordered by a thin feldspar rim. Using computed micro X-ray tomography these melt networks can be imaged. The infiltrated melt leads to rheological weakening and to a decompaction of the solid quartzite. Such decompaction can explain the recent discovery of abundant xenocrysts in many magmas, since it favors the isolation of mineral grains. Pervasive infiltration is apparently strongly influenced by melt viscosity and melt-crystal wetting behavior, both of which depend on the water content of melt and the temperature. In all experiments the first melt is produced on grain boundaries, dominantly by the local minerals. Grain scale heterogeneity of a melting rock leads thus to chemical concentration gradients in the melt, which are the driving force for initial melt migration. Pervasive melt films along grain boundaries leading to an interconnected network are immediately established. The initial chemical heterogeneities in the melt diminish with time. Résumé large public: La différenciation chimique de la Terre primitive est la conséquence de la fusion des roches et de la séparation des liquides qui en résultent. Aujourd'hui, la production de liquide magmatique est toujours le mécanisme dominant pour la croissance de la croûte terrestre. Ainsi la formation de la plupart des granites est un processus qui implique la production de magma par fusion partielle de la croûte inférieure, la migration de ces magmas à travers la croûte et finalement son emplacement dans les niveaux superficielle de la croûte terrestre. Au cours de cette évolution, les processus de fusion partielle et de ségrégation sont des étapes indispensables à l'ascension des granites à travers la croûte. Les conditions physico-chimiques nécessaires à la fusion partielle et à l'extraction de ces liquides sont complexes. C'est pourquoi des études détaillées des processus de fusion partielle sont cruciales pour la compréhension de ces mécanismes fondamentaux responsables de la stratification chimique de la Terre. Parmi ces études, les observations de terrain apportent notamment des informations déterminantes qui peuvent être comparées aux données expérimentales. Le travail de recherche présenté dans ce mémoire de thèse associe études de terrain et données expérimentales sur la fusion partielle des roches pélitiques de haut degré métamorphiques provenant de l'auréole de contact de Little Cottonwood (Utah, USA). Les roches du métamorphisme de contact sont idéales pour l'étude de la folination de liquide de fusion. En effet, la durée relativement courte de ce type d'événement métamorphique prévient en grande partie la recristallisation qui perturbe les études de texture des roches dans la croûte inférieure. Le but de cette étude est de caractériser la génération des liquides de fusion, d'identifier les réactions responsables de la fusion de ces roches et de contraindre la formation de ces liquides et leur mécanisme de ségrégation et de migration. Parallèlement, des travaux expérimentaux ont été entrepris pour reproduire la fusion partielle de ces roches en laboratoire. Cette étude a été effectuée dans le but de confirmer la composition chimique des liquides, et de comparer les textures obtenues en l'absence de déformation. Les résultats montrent qu'un liquide de fusion pegmatoïde est produit par fusion partielle des roches pélitiques. La grande mobilité de ce liquide permet une infiltration pénétrative dans les quarzites. Ces infiltrations se manifestent par des grains de quartz arrondis entourés par une fine bordure de feldspath. L'utilisation de la tomography à rayons X a permis d'obtenir des images de ce réseau de liquide de fusion. L'infiltration de liquide de fusion entraîne un affaiblissement de la rhéologie de la roche ainsi qu'une décompaction des quartzites massifs. Une telle décompaction peut expliquer la découverte récente d'abondants xénocristaux dans beaucoup de magmas, puisque elle favorise l'isolation des minéraux. L'infiltration pénétrative est apparemment fortement influencée par la viscosité du fluide de fusion et le comportement de la tension superficielle entre les cristaux et le liquide, les deux étant dépendant du contenu en eau dans le liquide de fusion et de la température. Dans toutes les expériences, le premier liquide est produit sur les bordures de grains, principalement par les minéraux locaux. L'hétérogénéité à l'échelle des grains d'une roche en fusion conduit donc à un gradient de concentration chimique dans le liquide, qui sert de moteur à l'initiation de la migration du liquide. Des fines couches de liquide de fusion le long de bordures de grains formant un réseau enchevêtré s'établit immédiatement. Les hétérogénéités chimiques initiales dans le liquide s'estompent avec le temps.

Body girth as an alternative to body mass for establishing condition indexes in field studies: a validation in the king penguin.

Body mass and body condition are often tightly linked to animal health and fitness in the wild and thus are key measures for ecophysiologists and behavioral ecologists. In some animals, such as large seabird species, obtaining indexes of structural size is relatively easy, whereas measuring body mass under specific field circumstances may be more of a challenge. Here, we suggest an alternative, easily measurable, and reliable surrogate of body mass in field studies, that is, body girth. Using 234 free-living king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) at various stages of molt and breeding, we measured body girth under the flippers, body mass, and bill and flipper length. We found that body girth was strongly and positively related to body mass in both molting (R(2) = 0.91) and breeding (R(2) = 0.73) birds, with the mean error around our predictions being 6.4%. Body girth appeared to be a reliable proxy measure of body mass because the relationship did not vary according to year and experimenter, bird sex, or stage within breeding groups. Body girth was, however, a weak proxy of body mass in birds at the end of molt, probably because most of those birds had reached a critical depletion of energy stores. Body condition indexes established from ordinary least squares regressions of either body girth or body mass on structural size were highly correlated (r(s) = 0.91), suggesting that body girth was as good as body mass in establishing body condition indexes in king penguins. Body girth may prove a useful proxy to body mass for estimating body condition in field investigations and could likely provide similar information in other penguins and large animals that may be complicated to weigh in the wild.

3-d residual eddy current field characterisation: applied to diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging.

Clinical use of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion weighted images is hampered by the geometric distortions that result from the large residual 3-D eddy current field induced. In this work, we aimed to predict, using linear response theory, the residual 3-D eddy current field required for geometric distortion correction based on phantom eddy current field measurements. The predicted 3-D eddy current field induced by the diffusion-weighting gradients was able to reduce the root mean square error of the residual eddy current field to ~1 Hz. The model's performance was tested on diffusion weighted images of four normal volunteers, following distortion correction, the quality of the Stejskal-Tanner diffusion-weighted images was found to have comparable quality to image registration based corrections (FSL) at low b-values. Unlike registration techniques the correction was not hindered by low SNR at high b-values, and results in improved image quality relative to FSL. Characterization of the 3-D eddy current field with linear response theory enables the prediction of the 3-D eddy current field required to correct eddy current induced geometric distortions for a wide range of clinical and high b-value protocols.

Inferring ultraviolet anatomical exposure patterns while distinguishing the relative contribution of radiation components

Exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation is the main causative factor for skin cancer. UV exposure depends on environmental and individual factors, but individual exposure data remain scarce. While ground UV irradiance is monitored via different techniques, it is difficult to translate such observations into human UV exposure or dose because of confounding factors. A multi-disciplinary collaboration developed a model predicting the dose and distribution of UV exposure on the basis of ground irradiation and morphological data. Standard 3D computer graphics techniques were adapted to develop a simulation tool that estimates solar exposure of a virtual manikin depicted as a triangle mesh surface. The amount of solar energy received by various body locations is computed for direct, diffuse and reflected radiation separately. Dosimetric measurements obtained in field conditions were used to assess the model performance. The model predicted exposure to solar UV adequately with a symmetric mean absolute percentage error of 13% and half of the predictions within 17% range of the measurements. Using this tool, solar UV exposure patterns were investigated with respect to the relative contribution of the direct, diffuse and reflected radiation. Exposure doses for various body parts and exposure scenarios of a standing individual were assessed using erythemally-weighted UV ground irradiance data measured in 2009 at Payerne, Switzerland as input. For most anatomical sites, mean daily doses were high (typically 6.2-14.6 Standard Erythemal Dose, SED) and exceeded recommended exposure values. Direct exposure was important during specific periods (e. g. midday during summer), but contributed moderately to the annual dose, ranging from 15 to 24% for vertical and horizontal body parts, respectively. Diffuse irradiation explained about 80% of the cumulative annual exposure dose.

Modelling short-term ultraviolet exposure as an alternative to individual dosimetry

Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.

From deep seated slope deformation to rock avalanche: Destabilization and transportation models of the Sierre landslide (Switzerland)

Sackung is a widespread post-glacial morphological feature affecting Alpine mountains and creating characteristic geomorphological expression that can be detected from topography. Over long time evolution, internal deformation can lead to the formation of rapidly moving phenomena such as a rock-slide or rock avalanche. In this study, a detailed description of the Sierre rock-avalanche (SW Switzerland) is presented. This convex-shaped postglacial instability is one of the larger rock-avalanche in the Alps, involving more than 1.5 billion m3 with a run-out distance of about 14 km and extremely low Fahrböschung angle. This study presents comprehensive analyses of the structural and geological characteristics leading to the development of the Sierre rock-avalanche. In particular, by combining field observations, digital elevation model analyses and numerical modelling, the strong influence of both ductile and brittle tectonic structures on the failure mechanism and on the failure surface geometry is highlighted. The detection of pre-failure deformation indicates that the development of the rock avalanche corresponds to the last evolutionary stage of a pre-existing deep seated gravitational slope instability. These analyses accompanied by the dating and the characterization of rock avalanche deposits, allow the proposal of a destabilization model that clarifies the different phases leading to the development of the Sierre rock avalanche.

The truncated mean of an asymmetric distribution

This paper investigates a simple procedure to estimate robustly the mean of an asymmetric distribution. The procedure removes the observations which are larger or smaller than certain limits and takes the arithmetic mean of the remaining observations, the limits being determined with the help of a parametric model, e.g., the Gamma, the Weibull or the Lognormal distribution. The breakdown point, the influence function, the (asymptotic) variance, and the contamination bias of this estimator are explored and compared numerically with those of competing estimates.

Technical note: Preliminary estimation of rockfall runout zones

Rockfall propagation areas can be determined using a simple geometric rule known as shadow angle or energy line method based on a simple Coulomb frictional model implemented in the CONEFALL computer program. Runout zones are estimated from a digital terrain model (DTM) and a grid file containing the cells representing rockfall potential source areas. The cells of the DTM that are lowest in altitude and located within a cone centered on a rockfall source cell belong to the potential propagation area associated with that grid cell. In addition, the CONEFALL method allows estimation of mean and maximum velocities and energies of blocks in the rockfall propagation areas. Previous studies indicate that the slope angle cone ranges from 27° to 37° depending on the assumptions made, i.e. slope morphology, probability of reaching a point, maximum run-out, field observations. Different solutions based on previous work and an example of an actual rockfall event are presented here.

Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.