Winter habitat selection by two sympatric forest grouse in western Switzerland: implications for conservation

Two endangered tetraonids, the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the hazel grouse (Bonasa bonasia rupestris), are sympatric throughout part of their distribution range in central Europe. Precise information on their specific habitat requirements is needed if the coexistence of both species in exploited forests is to be maintained. We quantified winter habitat selection for both species in the upper part (1100-1600 m) of the Jura mountains (Switzerland). No preference for altitude or exposure could be detected. Capercaillie preferred open forests (including grazed forests) with a sparse canopy dominated by spruce (Picea abies) and fir (Abies alba), and avoided dense undercanopy and understorey, especially when dominated by spruce and beech (Fagus sylvatica). By contrast, hazel grouse preferred feeding sites with a dense understorey of rowan (Sorbus aucuparia), willow (Salix sp.), beech and spruce. These preferences can be related to the feeding habits and predator avoidance behaviour of both species. Coexistence thus requires a mosaic distribution of habitat types, with a matrix of open forests (30% canopy cover) where fir is favoured, and understorey kept sparse (20%). Group-cuts of mature trees should allow regeneration patches, where a dense understorey (50% cover) should provide suitable habitats for hazel grouse

Hierarchic species-area relationships and the management of forest habitat islands in intensive farmland

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.

Molecular markers allow sibling species identification in red wood ants (Formica rufa group)

Red wood ants (Formica rufa group) constitute a group of species that are considered to be among the most promising bioindicators in forest ecosystems. However, because of their morphological similarity and intraspecific variability, morphological species identification can be difficult. Considerable expertise is necessary to discriminate between the sibling species F. lugubris and F. paralugubris, two species that often live in sympatry in the same Alpine forests. New taxonomic tools providing rapid and reliable species identification are needed. We present a simple and reliable molecular technique based on mtDNA (COI gene) and a restriction enzyme for discriminating between F. lugubris and F. paralugubris. We confirm the validity of this method with a Bayesian analysis based on microsatellites. This new molecular tool represents a clear breakthrough for discriminating between F. lugubris and F. paralugubris and is likely to be helpful in large-scale biomonitoring.

Shifts in species and phylogenetic diversity between sapling and tree communities indicate negative density dependence in a lowland rain forest

1. As trees in a given cohort progress through ontogeny, many individuals die. This risk of mortality is unevenly distributed across species because of many processes such as habitat filtering, interspecific competition and negative density dependence. Here, we predict and test the patterns that such ecological processes should inscribe on both species and phylogenetic diversity as plants recruit from saplings to the canopy. 2. We compared species and phylogenetic diversity of sapling and tree communities at two sites in French Guiana. We surveyed 2084 adult trees in four 1-ha tree plots and 943 saplings in sixteen 16-m2 subplots nested within the tree plots. Species diversity was measured using Fisher's alpha (species richness) and Simpson's index (species evenness). Phylogenetic diversity was measured using Faith's phylogenetic diversity (phylogenetic richness) and Rao's quadratic entropy index (phylogenetic evenness). The phylogenetic diversity indices were inferred using four phylogenetic hypotheses: two based on rbcLa plastid DNA sequences obtained from the inventoried individuals with different branch lengths, a global phylogeny available from the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group, and a combination of both. 3. Taxonomic identification of the saplings was performed by combining morphological and DNA barcoding techniques using three plant DNA barcodes (psbA-trnH, rpoC1 and rbcLa). DNA barcoding enabled us to increase species assignment and to assign unidentified saplings to molecular operational taxonomic units. 4. Species richness was similar between saplings and trees, but in about half of our comparisons, species evenness was higher in trees than in saplings. This suggests that negative density dependence plays an important role during the sapling-to-tree transition. 5. Phylogenetic richness increased between saplings and trees in about half of the comparisons. Phylogenetic evenness increased significantly between saplings and trees in a few cases (4 out of 16) and only with the most resolved phylogeny. These results suggest that negative density dependence operates largely independently of the phylogenetic structure of communities. 6. Synthesis. By contrasting species richness and evenness across size classes, we suggest that negative density dependence drives shifts in composition during the sapling-to-tree transition. In addition, we found little evidence for a change in phylogenetic diversity across age classes, suggesting that the observed patterns are not phylogenetically constrained.

Thermal energetics of the New-Guinean moss-forest rat (Rattus niobe) in comparison with other tropical murid rodents.

The thermal energetics of rodents from cool, wet tropical highlands are poorly known. Metabolic rate, body temperature and thermal conductance were measured in the moss-forest rat, Rattus niobe (Rodentia), a small murid endemic to the highlands of New Guinea. These data were evaluated in the context of the variation observed in the genus Rattus and among tropical murids. In 7 adult R. niobe, basal metabolic rate (BMR) averaged 53.6±6.6mLO2h(-1), or 103% of the value predicted for a body mass of 42.3±5.8g. Compared to other species of Rattus, R. niobe combines a low body temperature (35.5±0.6°C) and a moderately low minimal wet thermal conductance cmin (5.88±0.7mLO2h(-1)°C(-1), 95% of predicted) with a small size, all of which lead to reduced energy expenditure in a constantly cool environment. The correlations of mean annual rainfall and temperature, altitude and body mass with BMR, body temperature and cmin were analyzed comparatively among tropical Muridae. Neither BMR, nor cmin or body temperature correlated with ambient temperature or altitude. Some of the factors which promote high BMR in higher latitude habitats, such as seasonal exposure to very low temperature and short reproductive season, are lacking in wet montane tropical forests. BMR increased with rainfall, confirming a pattern observed among other assemblages of mammals. This correlation was due to the low BMR of several desert adapted murids, while R. niobe and other species from wet habitats had a moderate BMR.

The Alps Vegetation Database - a geo-referenced community-level archive of all terrestrial plants occurring in the Alps.

Mountain ranges are biodiversity hotspots worldwide and provide refuge to many organisms under contemporary climate change. Gathering field information on mountain biodiversity over time is of primary importance to understand the response of biotic communities to climate changes. For plants, several long-term observation sites and networks of mountain biodiversity are emerging worldwide to gather field data and monitor altitudinal range shifts and community composition changes under contemporary climate change. Most of these monitoring sites, however, focus on alpine ecosystems and mountain summits, such as the global observation research initiative in alpine environments (GLORIA). Here we describe the Alps Vegetation Database, a comprehensive community level archive (GIVD ID EU-00-014) which aims at compiling all available geo-referenced vegetation plots from lowland forests to alpine grasslands across the greatest mountain range in Europe: the Alps. This research initiative was funded between 2008 and 2011 by the Danish Council for Independent Research and was part of a larger project to compare cross-scale plant community structure between the Alps and the Scandes. The Alps Vegetation Database currently harbours 35,731 geo-referenced vegetation plots and 5,023 valid taxa across Mediterranean, temperate and alpine environments. The data are mainly used by the main contributors of the Alps Vegetation Database in an ecoinformatics approach to test hypotheses related to plant macroecology and biogeography, but external proposals for joint collaborations are welcome.

State power and protected areas: Dynamics and contradictions of forest conservation in Madhya Pradesh, India

The traditionally coercive and state-controlled governance of protected areas for nature conservation in developing countries has in many cases undergone change in the context of widespread decentralization and liberalization. This article examines an emerging "mixed" (coercive, community- and market-oriented) conservation approach in managed-resource protected areas and its effects on state power through a case study on forest protection in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. The findings suggest that imperfect decentralization and partial liberalization resulted in changed forms, rather than uniform loss, of state power. A forest co-management program paradoxically strengthened local capacity and influence of the Forest Department, which generally maintained its territorial and knowledge-based control over forests and timber management. Furthermore, deregulation and reregulation enabled the state to withdraw from uneconomic activities but also implied reduced place-based control of non-timber forest products. Generally, the new policies and programs contributed to the separation of livelihoods and forests in Madhya Pradesh. The article concludes that regulatory, community- and market-based initiatives would need to be better coordinated to lead to more effective nature conservation and positive livelihood outcomes.

Representativeness of terrestrial ecosystems in Chile's protected area system

Because protected areas are a major means of conservation, the extent to which ecosystems are represented under different protection regimes needs to be ascertained. A gap analysis approach was used to assess the representativeness of Chile's terrestrial ecosystems in differing kinds of protected areas. Terrestrial ecosystems were described in terms of potential vegetation, employing three protection scenarios. Scenario 1 was based exclusively on the Chilean National System of Protected Wild Areas (SNASPE). Scenario 2 included all types of public protected areas, namely SNASPE, nature sanctuaries and Ministry of National Heritage lands. Scenario 3 included all items in Scenario 2, but also included private protected areas and biodiversity priority sites. There is insufficient protection of terrestrial ecosystems under the Scenario 2. In addition to the low level of ecosystem protection provided by state protected areas (only 42 of the 127 terrestrial ecosystems had >10% of their area protected), 23 terrestrial ecosystems were identified as having no protection at the national level. Gaps in protection were concentrated in the North (both coastal and inland desertic scrub), Central (thorny scrub, thorny forests, sclerophyllous forests and deciduous coastal forests) and Austral (steppe ecosystems) regions of Chile. These gaps include ecosystems that are of global conservation importance.

Batch effect confounding leads to strong bias in performance estimates obtained by cross-validation.

BACKGROUND: With the large amount of biological data that is currently publicly available, many investigators combine multiple data sets to increase the sample size and potentially also the power of their analyses. However, technical differences ("batch effects") as well as differences in sample composition between the data sets may significantly affect the ability to draw generalizable conclusions from such studies. FOCUS: The current study focuses on the construction of classifiers, and the use of cross-validation to estimate their performance. In particular, we investigate the impact of batch effects and differences in sample composition between batches on the accuracy of the classification performance estimate obtained via cross-validation. The focus on estimation bias is a main difference compared to previous studies, which have mostly focused on the predictive performance and how it relates to the presence of batch effects. DATA: We work on simulated data sets. To have realistic intensity distributions, we use real gene expression data as the basis for our simulation. Random samples from this expression matrix are selected and assigned to group 1 (e.g., 'control') or group 2 (e.g., 'treated'). We introduce batch effects and select some features to be differentially expressed between the two groups. We consider several scenarios for our study, most importantly different levels of confounding between groups and batch effects. METHODS: We focus on well-known classifiers: logistic regression, Support Vector Machines (SVM), k-nearest neighbors (kNN) and Random Forests (RF). Feature selection is performed with the Wilcoxon test or the lasso. Parameter tuning and feature selection, as well as the estimation of the prediction performance of each classifier, is performed within a nested cross-validation scheme. The estimated classification performance is then compared to what is obtained when applying the classifier to independent data.

The abrupt climate change at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the emergence of South-East Asia triggered the spread of sapindaceous lineages.

Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E-O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E-O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade.

Do PES Improve the Governance of Forest Restoration?

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) are praised as innovative policy instruments and they influence the governance of forest restoration efforts in two major ways. The first is the establishment of multi-stakeholder agencies as intermediary bodies between funders and planters to manage the funds and to distribute incentives to planters. The second implication is that specific contracts assign objectives to land users in the form of conditions for payments that are believed to increase the chances for sustained impacts on the ground. These implications are important in the assessment of the potential of PES to operate as new and effective funding schemes for forest restoration. They are analyzed by looking at two prominent payments for watershed service programs in Indonesia-Cidanau (Banten province in Java) and West Lombok (Eastern Indonesia)-with combined economic and political science approaches. We derive lessons for the governance of funding efforts (e.g., multi-stakeholder agencies are not a guarantee of success; mixed results are obtained from a reliance on mandatory funding with ad hoc regulations, as opposed to voluntary contributions by the service beneficiary) and for the governance of financial expenditure (e.g., absolute need for evaluation procedures for the internal governance of farmer groups). Furthermore, we observe that these governance features provide no guarantee that restoration plots with the highest relevance for ecosystem services are targeted by the PES

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Das Auerhuhn im Jura: Qualität des Lebensraum, Demographie, Habitatwahl und nicht-invasive genetische Untersuchungen

Most Central European Capercaillie populations have been declining during the last century. In the Jura Mountains, at the border between Switzerland and France, remaining Capercaillie populations are now isolated and endangered. In this study, land-use and Capercaillie presence data were used to identify key landscape parameters by logistic regression modelling. We found that Capercaillie prefers areas at the highest altitude in the Jura Mountains that are characterised by continous forests and stands with intermediate canopy cover. At the local scale, winter habitat selection revealed a preference for open forests with a sparse canopy cover dominated by spruce and fir. Capercaillie avoided dense undercanopy and understorey, especially when dominated by beech. Population viability and sensitivity analyses underlined the crucial importance of adult female survival, chick survival and breeding success for populations maintenance. Legal bases, scientific knowledge and technical measures are now available to conserve the flagship species Capercaillie within Jura Mountains. Capercaillie-adapted forestry requires a mosaic distribtution of habitat types, with a matrix of open forests where fir is favoured, and understorey kept sparse. Preliminary essays indicate that grouse-adapted forestry costs are similar or even lower than present costs. To increase survival and breeding sucess, one option is to diminish human distrubance by limiting access to Capercailllie breeding and wintering areas. An action plan for the species should avoid more costly and intensive approaches such as the reintroduction of birds from other populations. Capercaillie conservaiton represents a major challenge rising from various and contradictory leisure, tourist and rural development activities. Collaborations with different stakeholders and state agencies for forestry with an effective protection from human distrubance.

Contribution to the conservation biology of the wood ant Formica lugubris (Hymenoptera, Formicidae) in Switzerland

Summary Among ants, wood ants are probably the most fascinating and studied species in temperate European forests. Unfortunately, due to several threats they are nowadays registered in red lists. Recent studies made in the Swiss Jura Mountains ended up in the description of a new sympatric sibling species of Formica lugubris (i.e. Formica paralugubris Seifert 1996). Because of this confusion the biology of F. lugubris is incomplete. Due to the extreme difficulties to distinguish morphologically F. lugubris from F. paralugubris we studied their cuticular hydrocarbons profiles. Irrespective of their geographic origin, we observed quantitative discrimination between species within each caste (workers, males and gynes =young alate female). Moreover, using a behavioural taxonomic approach (i.e. the pupa-carrying test) we showed that ants preferred conspecific worker pupae to those of the sibling species. These first results allowed us to consider the two species as two separate taxonomic units. To understand their coexistence, habitat distribution models were fitted with GIS predictors and factors known to influence wood ant distribution. In the Jura Mountains, although the two species share very similar habitats, they are spatially segregated. F. lugubris occurs more frequently at woodland borders than in forest interiors. We demonstrated with genetic and field data that Formica lugubris displays two different social forms in close proximity in alpine zone (e.g. unmanaged forests of the Swiss National Park). We discovered populations mostly monogynous to weakly polygynous (i.e. one to a few egg laying queens per colony) and monodomous (i.e. one nest per colony), and polygynous/polydomous populations (new nests being founded by colony budding). It is generally admitted that monogyne species disperse well in order to find suitable habitat to found new colonies whereas polygyne species have restricted dispersal and local mating within the nest. In order to compare reproductive strategies of F. lugubris and F. paralugubris (i.e. matings and dealation process) we conducted experiments with sexuals. F, lugubris gynes from monogynous/monodomous populations do not show a local strategy like the obligately polygynous F. paralugubris (i.e. early dealation even without mating, insemination without flight activity and low fat reserve). They always keep their wings, do not mate when not able to fly and have high amount of fat content revealing high survival capacities. On the other side, F, lugubris gynes from polygynous/polydomous populations have lower lipid reserves and displayed a reproductive behaviour close to the F. para lugubris one. After dispersal, wood ant gynes can either start new societies by temporary social parasitism of another species (i.e. subgenus Serviformica) or be adopted intraspecifically in an existing nest. In F. lugubris, we demonstrated that gynes from monogynous/monodomous colonies showed a high success for temporary social parasitism compare to the lower success of gynes from polygynous/polydomous colonies. However, physiological analyses suggested that only gynes from monogynous/ monodomous populations can efficiently disperse and found new nest by temporary social parasitism. Intraspecifically, gynes were accepted to a high degree in polygynous nest and in monogynous nests as long as these nests contained sexuals. In conclusion, Formica lugubris displays a social and dispersal polymorphism (mixed mating and founding system) representing a behavioural plasticity in relation to environmental and ecological conditions. Therefore, conservation measures directed toward this species should try to maintain a maximum of diversity at the habitat level. Résumé Les fourmis des bois sont probablement parmi les espèces de fourmis les plus fascinantes et les plus étudiées des forêts tempérées Européennes. Actuellement, du fait de différentes menaces, elles figurent malheureusement sur listes rouges. Plusieurs études menées au sein du Jura Suisse ont abouti à la description d'une nouvelle espèce jumelle et sympatrique de Formica lugubris (F. para- lugubris Seifert 1996). A cause de cette confusion la biologie de F lugubris est lacunaire. La distinction morphologique de F. lugubris et de F. para lugubris est si difficile que nous avons étudié leurs hydrocarbures cuticulaires. Indépendamment de l'origine géographique, nous avons observé une discrimination quantitative entre les espèces au sein de chaque caste (ouvrières, mâles et jeunes femelles ailées). De plus, à l'aide d'une approche taxonomique comportementale (le test de transport de cocons) nous avons montré que les fourmis préfèrent des cocons d'ouvrières conspécifiques à ceux de l'espèce jumelle. Ces premiers résultats nous permettent de considérer ces deux espèces comme deux unités taxonomiques distinctes et valables. Afin de comprendre leur coexistence, des modèles mathématiques ont été développés avec des données SIG et des facteurs écologiques influençant la répartition des fournis des bois. Dans le Jura, même si elles partagent des habitats fortement similaires, les deux espèces n'occupent pas les mêmes secteurs. F. lugubris est plus fréquente en lisière forestière plutôt qu'en pleine forêt. Nous avons démontré grâce à des données génétiques et de terrain que F. lugubris présente deux formes sociales au sein de la zone alpine (forêts protégées du Parc National Suisse). D'autre part, nous avons découvert des populations monogynes à faiblement polygynes (une à quelques reines pondeuses par colonie) et monodomes (colonies composées d'une seule fourmilière), et des populations polygynes/polydomes (les nouveaux nids étant produit par bourgeonnement). Généralement, les espèces monogynes dispersent sur de grandes distances et peuvent coloniser des habitats favorables à la fondation de nouvelles colonies alors que les espèces polygynes possèdent une dispersion limitée avec des accouplements à l'intérieur des nids. Afin de comparer les stratégies de reproduction de F. lugubris et de F. paralugubris (accouplements et perte des ailes) nous avons mené des expériences avec les sexués. Les jeunes femelles ailées de F. lugubris issues de populations monogynes/monodomes ne présentent pas de stratégie locale comparée à l'espèce obligatoirement polygyne F paralugubris (perte des ailes précoce même si il n'y a pas eu accouplement, insémination possible sans avoir volé activement et faibles réserves de graisse). Elles conservent toujours leurs ailes, ne s'accouplent pas lorsqu'elles sont empêchées de voler et possèdent de grandes quantités de graisse révélant de fortes capacités de survie. D'autre part, les jeunes femelles ailées de F. lugubris provenant de populations polygynes/polydomes ont peu de réserves lipidiques et ont un comportement de reproduction proche de celles de F. paralugubris. Après leur dispersion, les jeunes sexués femelles de fourmis des bois peuvent soit fonder une nouvelle société par parasitisme social temporaire d'un nid d'une autre espèce (sous-genre Serviformica) soit être adoptées dans un nid déjà existant de leur propre espèce. Chez F. lugubris, nous avons pu démontrer que les jeunes sexués femelles de colonies monogynes/monodomes présentent un succès élevé au parasitisme sociale temporaire en comparaison au plus faible succès obtenu avec des sexués provenant de colonies polygynes/polydomes. Cependant, les données physiologiques suggèrent que seules les jeunes sexués femelles de populations mono-gynes/monodomes peuvent disperser efficacement et fonder un nouveau nid par parasitisme social temporaire. Au niveau intraspécifique, les jeunes femelles sont acceptées à un taux élevé dans les nids polygynes mais aussi dans les nids monogynes tant que ces nids possèdent encore de jeunes sexués. En conclusion, F. lugubris est caractérisée par un polymorphisme dans ses structures sociales et ses stratégies de dispersion (système mixte d'accouplement et de fondation) ce qui représente une forte plasticité comportementale en relation avec les conditions environnementales et écologiques. Par conséquent, les mesures de conservation de cette espèce devraient s'attacher à maintenir un maximum de diversité au niveau des habitats.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.