Modelling habitat-suitability using museum collections: an example with three sympatric Apodemus species from the Alps

Aim, Location Although the alpine mouse Apodemus alpicola has been given species status since 1989, no distribution map has ever been constructed for this endemic alpine rodent in Switzerland. Based on redetermined museum material and using the Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), habitat-suitability maps were computed for A. alpicola, and also for the co-occurring A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus. Methods In the particular case of habitat suitability models, classical approaches (GLMs, GAMs, discriminant analysis, etc.) generally require presence and absence data. The presence records provided by museums can clearly give useful information about species distribution and ecology and have already been used for knowledge-based mapping. In this paper, we apply the ENFA which requires only presence data, to build a habitat-suitability map of three species of Apodemus on the basis of museum skull collections. Results Interspecific niche comparisons showed that A. alpicola is very specialized concerning habitat selection, meaning that its habitat differs unequivocally from the average conditions in Switzerland, while both A. flavicollis and A. sylvaticus could be considered as 'generalists' in the study area. Main conclusions Although an adequate sampling design is the best way to collect ecological data for predictive modelling, this is a time and money consuming process and there are cases where time is simply not available, as for instance with endangered species conservation. On the other hand, museums, herbariums and other similar institutions are treasuring huge presence data sets. By applying the ENFA to such data it is possible to rapidly construct a habitat suitability model. The ENFA method not only provides two key measurements regarding the niche of a species (i.e. marginality and specialization), but also has ecological meaning, and allows the scientist to compare directly the niches of different species.

Map of ecological networks for landscape planning

This paper presents a method based on a geographical information system (GIS) to model ecological networks in a fragmented landscape. The ecological networks are generated with the help of a landscape model (which integrate human activities) and with a wildlife dispersal model. The main results are maps which permit the analysis and the understanding of the impact of human activities on wildlife dispersal. Three applications in a study area are presented: ecological networks at the landscape scale, conflicting areas at the farmstead scale and ecological distance between biotopes. These applications show the flexibility of the model and its potential to give information on ecological networks at different planning scales.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Sudden death among young people with first-episode psychosis: an 8-10 year follow-up study.

Individuals with first episode psychosis (FEP) experience high rates of premature mortality, in particular due to suicide. The study aims were to: a) Estimate the rate of sudden death among young people with FEP during an 8-10 year period following commencement of treatment; b) Examine and describe the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics associated with sudden death; and c) Examine the timing of death in relation to psychiatric treatment.This was a cohort study. The sample comprised 661 patients accepted into treatment at the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre between 1/1/1998 and 31/12/2000. Demographic and clinical data were collected by examination of the medical files. Mortality data were collected via a search of the National Coroners Information System; the Victorian State Coroner's office and clinical files. Nineteen patients died and just over two thirds of deaths were classified as intentional self-harm or suicide. Death was associated with male gender, previous suicide attempt and greater symptom severity at last contact. People with FEP are at increased risk of premature death, in particular suicide. A previous suicide attempt was very common amongst those who died, suggesting that future research could focus upon the development of interventions for young people with FEP who engage in suicidal behaviour.

Cost effectiveness of a new combined immunosuppressive and antiviral regimen on the one-year follow-up of kidney transplant patients.

Background: Medical prescription after organ transplant must prevent both rejection and infectious complications. We assessed the 1-year effectiveness and cost of introducing a new combined regimen in kidney transplantation. Methods: Patients transplanted from January 2000 to March 2003 (Period 1) were compared to patients transplanted from April 2003 to July 2005 (Period 2). In period 1, patients were treated with Basiliximab, Cyclosporin, steroids and Mycophenolate (MMF) or Azathioprine. Prophylaxis with Valacyclovir was prescribed only in CMV D+/R- patients. In period 2, immunosuppressive drugs were Basiliximab, Tacrolimus, steroids and MMF. A 3-month universal CMV prophylaxis with Valganciclovir was used. Medical charts of outpatient visits allowed identifying drug, laboratory and radiological tests use, and hospital information system causes of hospitalisation and length of stay (LOS) over the first year after transplant. Patients with incomplete costs data were excluded. Results: 53 patients were analysed in period 1, and 60 in period 2. CMV serostatus patterns were not significantly different between the 2 periods. Over 12 months, acute rejection decreased from 22 patients (42%) in period 1 to 4 patients (7%) in period 2 (p<0.001), and CMV infection from 25 patients (47%) to 9 patients (15%, p<0.001). Average total rehospitalisation LOS decreased from 28±19 to 20±11 days (p<0.007). Average outpatient visits decreased from 49±10 to 39±8 (p<0.001). Average immunosuppression and CMV prophylaxis costs increased from US$ 18,362±6,546 to 24,637±5,457 (p<0.001), while average graft rejection costs decreased form US$ 4,135±9,164 to 585±2,850 (p=0.005), and average CMV treatment costs from US$ 2,043±5,545 to 91±293 (p=0.008). Average outpatient visits costs decreased from US$ 7,619±1,549 to 6,074±1,043 (p<0.001), and other hospital costs from US$ 3,801±6,519 to 1,196±3,146 (p=0.007). Altogether, average 1-year treatment costs decreased from US$ 35,961±14,916 to 32,584±6,211 (p=0.115). Cost-effectiveness ratios to avoid graft rejection and CMV infection decreased from US$ 61,482±9,292 to 34,911± 1,639 (p=0.006) and US$ 68,070±11,122 to 39,899±2,650 (p=0.015), respectively. Conclusion: The new combined regimen administered in period 2 was significantly more effective. Its additional cost was more than offset by savings linked with complications avoidance.

Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico-surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction: Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HRF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HRF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HRF (defined as PaCO2 >50 mm Hg), and receiving NIV between January 2009 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU and hospital mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p <0.05 (*). Results: 164 patients were included, 45 (27.4%) of whom were intubated after 10 [2-34] hours, after having received 7 [2-19] hours of NIV. NIV successful patients received 15 [5-22] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (20% vs. 3%, p <0.001) and hospital (46.7% vs. 30.2, p >0.05) mortality. Conclusions: A majority of patients requiring NIV for hypercapnic respiratory failure in our ICU have no diagnosed chronic pulmonary disease. These patients tend to have increased ICUand hospital mortality. The majority of patients were non-surgical, a feature correlated with increased hospital mortality. Beside usual predictors of severity such as age and SAPS II, absence of diagnosed chronic pulmonary disease and non-operative state appear to be associated with increased mortality. Further studies should explore whether these patients are indeed more prone to an adverse outcome and which therapeutic strategies might contribute to alter this course.

Multiscale determinants of tree frog (Hyla arborea L.) calling ponds in western Switzerland

A tree frog (Hyla arborea L., 1758) metapopulation in western Switzerland was studied during spring 2001. All potential calling ponds in an area of 350 km(2) were searched for tree frog calling males. Twenty-nine out of 111 ponds sheltered between 1 and 250 callers. Most ponds were occupied by less than 12 males. Pond parameters were measured at three different levels using field analysis and a Geographical Information System (GIS). The first level was water chemistry and pond-associated measures. The second level was the surrounding land use in a 30 m buffer around the pond. The third level consisted of landscape indices on a broader scale (up to 2 km). Logistic regression was applied to identify parameters that can predict the presence of calling males in a pond. Response variable was the presence or absence of callers. Four significant parameters allowed us to explain about 40% of the total deviance of the observed occupational pattern. Urbanization around the pond had a highly negative impact on the probability of presence of calling males. Hours of direct sunlight on the pond was positively correlated with callers. Higher water conductivity was associated with a lesser probability of species presence. Finally, the further the closest two-lane road, the higher the probability of callers presence. Our results show that presence or absence of callers is influenced by factors acting at various geographical scales.

Influence of compliance to respiratory weaning consensus conference criteria on respiratory outcome within 48h after planned extubation

INTRODUCTION. A two-step assessment (readiness to wean (RW) followed by spontaneousbreathing trial (SBT)) of predefined criteria is recommended before planned extubation(PE)1.OBJECTIVES. We aimed to evaluate if compliance to all guideline criteria was associatedwith better respiratory outcome within 48 h after PE.METHODS. The data (extracted from our clinical information system) of 458 consecutivepatients who underwent PE after C48 h of invasive ventilation in our medico-surgical ICUwere analyzed. We evaluated compliance with guidelines [1] regarding respiratory rate, tidalvolume, PaO2, FiO2, PEEP, PaCO2, pH, heart rate, systolic arterial pressure and arrhythmiaduringRWand SBT assessment (RW and SBT within 2 h). A patient was classified as RW+ ifallRWcriteria were fulfilled andRW-if at least 1 criterion was violated. The same approachwas used to define SBT+ and SBT- patients. During the 48 h following PE, we assessed theoccurrence of post-PE respiratory failure (PRF) (defined as the presence of at least 1 consensuscriterion of respiratory failure [1]), reintubation (after NIV failure or because of immediateintubation criteria) and cumulative duration of post-PE ventilation (PPEV = Post-PE invasive+ non-invasive ventilation). ICU mortality was recorded. Comparisons for variousoutcomes were performed by Chi-square and t tests.RESULTS. All consensus criteria were fulfilled in 77.3% of the patients during RW and in68.1% of the patients during SBT.[Compliance to weaning criteria and outcome]N = 458 PRF (%) Reintubation (%) PPEV (min) ICU mortality (%)All patients 53.5 10.0 542 ± 664 6.1RW+ 50.0 9.3 490 ± 626 5.4RW- 65.4* 12.5 718 ± 757** 8.7SBT+ 52.6 8.0 498 ± 594 6.7SBT- 55.5 14.4*** 637 ± 788**** 4.8Occurrence of PRF only was not associated with increased ICU mortality: 4.2 versus 7.8%,p = 0.11. By contrast, ICU mortality was significantly increased in patients requiring reintubation:21.7 versus 4.4%. p\0.001; * p = 0.006 RW+ versus RW-; ** p = 0.003RW+ versus RW-; *** p = 0.035 SBT+ versus SBT-; **** p = 0.030 SBT+ versusSBTCONCLUSIONS.In our ICU, compliance to all criteria of the two-step published approach ofrespiratory weaning was not optimal but reintubation rate was comparable to published data.Compliance with consensus conference guidelines was associated with lower reintubation rateand shorter PPEV but not with ICU mortality. As mortality was increased by reintubation,more sensitive and specific criteria to predict the risk of reintubation are probably needed.REFERENCE. Boles JM, et al. Eur Respir J 2007;29:1033-56.

Benchmarking therapeutic drug monitoring software: A systematic evaluation of available computer tools

Introduction: Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) aims at optimizing treatment by individualizing dosage regimen based on measurement of blood concentrations. Maintaining concentrations within a target range requires pharmacokinetic and clinical capabilities. Bayesian calculation represents a gold standard in TDM approach but requires computing assistance. In the last decades computer programs have been developed to assist clinicians in this assignment. The aim of this benchmarking was to assess and compare computer tools designed to support TDM clinical activities.¦Method: Literature and Internet search was performed to identify software. All programs were tested on common personal computer. Each program was scored against a standardized grid covering pharmacokinetic relevance, user-friendliness, computing aspects, interfacing, and storage. A weighting factor was applied to each criterion of the grid to consider its relative importance. To assess the robustness of the software, six representative clinical vignettes were also processed through all of them.¦Results: 12 software tools were identified, tested and ranked. It represents a comprehensive review of the available software's characteristics. Numbers of drugs handled vary widely and 8 programs offer the ability to the user to add its own drug model. 10 computer programs are able to compute Bayesian dosage adaptation based on a blood concentration (a posteriori adjustment) while 9 are also able to suggest a priori dosage regimen (prior to any blood concentration measurement), based on individual patient covariates, such as age, gender, weight. Among those applying Bayesian analysis, one uses the non-parametric approach. The top 2 software emerging from this benchmark are MwPharm and TCIWorks. Other programs evaluated have also a good potential but are less sophisticated (e.g. in terms of storage or report generation) or less user-friendly.¦Conclusion: Whereas 2 integrated programs are at the top of the ranked listed, such complex tools would possibly not fit all institutions, and each software tool must be regarded with respect to individual needs of hospitals or clinicians. Interest in computing tool to support therapeutic monitoring is still growing. Although developers put efforts into it the last years, there is still room for improvement, especially in terms of institutional information system interfacing, user-friendliness, capacity of data storage and report generation.

Benchmarking therapeutic drug monitoring software: A systematic evaluation of available computer tools

Objectives: Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) aims at optimizing treatment by individualizing dosage regimen based on blood concentrations measurement. Maintaining concentrations within a target range requires pharmacokinetic (PK) and clinical capabilities. Bayesian calculation represents a gold standard in TDM approach but requires computing assistance. The aim of this benchmarking was to assess and compare computer tools designed to support TDM clinical activities.¦Methods: Literature and Internet were searched to identify software. Each program was scored against a standardized grid covering pharmacokinetic relevance, user-friendliness, computing aspects, interfacing, and storage. A weighting factor was applied to each criterion of the grid to consider its relative importance. To assess the robustness of the software, six representative clinical vignettes were also processed through all of them.¦Results: 12 software tools were identified, tested and ranked. It represents a comprehensive review of the available software characteristics. Numbers of drugs handled vary from 2 to more than 180, and integration of different population types is available for some programs. Nevertheless, 8 programs offer the ability to add new drug models based on population PK data. 10 computer tools incorporate Bayesian computation to predict dosage regimen (individual parameters are calculated based on population PK models). All of them are able to compute Bayesian a posteriori dosage adaptation based on a blood concentration while 9 are also able to suggest a priori dosage regimen, only based on individual patient covariates. Among those applying Bayesian analysis, MM-USC*PACK uses a non-parametric approach. The top 2 programs emerging from this benchmark are MwPharm and TCIWorks. Others programs evaluated have also a good potential but are less sophisticated or less user-friendly.¦Conclusions: Whereas 2 software packages are ranked at the top of the list, such complex tools would possibly not fit all institutions, and each program must be regarded with respect to individual needs of hospitals or clinicians. Programs should be easy and fast for routine activities, including for non-experienced users. Although interest in TDM tools is growing and efforts were put into it in the last years, there is still room for improvement, especially in terms of institutional information system interfacing, user-friendliness, capability of data storage and automated report generation.

Flujos de detritos recientes en la cordillera frontal de Mendoza: Un ejemplo de riesgo natural en la ruta 7 = Recent debris flows in the Frontal Cordillera of Mendoza: An example of natural risk on the Road 7

In this paper is presented a study dealing with the debris flows that reached the national road 7 in January 2005, in the km 1,118.5, Mendoza province. The area is located in the Frontal Cordillera near the limit of the Precordillera. A detailed geomorphologic map has been realized for this study using a Quickbird satellite imagery of the year 2006. Various calculations of volumes, velocities and peak discharges have been performed with the field data and using a geographic information system (GIS). The geomorphologic survey has permitted to propose three propagation scenarios in case of a new event. These allowed creating a map of debris flows susceptibility for the stretch of the road that has been studied. Finally, it has been proposed protection and mitigation measures, based on the results of the study, to protect the road from a new event.