Statins for cardiovascular prevention according to different strategies: a cost analysis.

Background: Several studies have shown that treatment with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) can reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) rates. However, the cost effectiveness of statin treatment in the primary prevention of CHD has not been fully established. Objective: To estimate the costs of CHD prevention using statins in Switzerland according to different guidelines, over a 10-year period. Methods: The overall 10-year costs, costs of one CHD death averted, and of 1 year without CHD were computed for the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), the International Atherosclerosis Society (IAS), and the US Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines. Sensitivity analysis was performed by varying number of CHD events prevented and costs of treatment. Results: Using an inflation rate of medical costs of 3%, a single yearly consultation, a single total cholesterol measurement per year, and a generic statin, the overall 10-year costs of the ESC, IAS, and ATP-III strategies were 2.2, 3.4, and 4.1 billion Swiss francs (SwF [SwF1 = $US0.97]). In this scenario, the average cost for 1 year of life gained was SwF352, SwF421, and SwF485 thousand, respectively, and it was always higher in women than in men. In men, the average cost for 1 year of life without CHD was SwF30.7, SwF42.5, and SwF51.9 thousand for the ESC, IAS, and ATP-III strategies, respectively, and decreased with age. Statin drug costs represented between 45% and 68% of the overall preventive cost. Changing the cost of statins, inflation rates, or number of fatal and non-fatal cases of CHD averted showed ESC guidelines to be the most cost effective. Conclusion: The cost of CHD prevention using statins depends on the guidelines used. The ESC guidelines appear to yield the lowest costs per year of life gained free of CHD.

Proximal tibia volumetric bone mineral density is correlated to the magnitude of local acceleration in male long distance runners.

Introduction: The beneficial effect of physical exercise on bone mineral density (BMD) is at least partly explained by the forces exerted directly on the bones. Male runners present generally higher BMD than sedentary individuals. We postulated that the proximal tibia BMD is related to the running distance as well as to the magnitude of the shocks (while running) in male runners. Methods: A prospective study (three yearly measurements) included 81 healthy male subjects: 16 sedentary lean subjects and three groups of runners (5-30 km/week, n=19; 30-50 km/week, n=29; 50-100 km/week, n=17). Several measurements were performed at the proximal tibia level: volumetric BMD (vBMD), cortical index (CI) i.e. an index of cortical bone thickness and peak accelerations (an index of shocks during heel strike) while running (measured by a 3-D accelerometer). A general linear model assessed the prediction of vBMD or CI by a) simple effects (running distance, peak accelerations, time) and b) interactions (for instance if vBMD prediction by peak acceleration depends on running distance). Results: CI and vBMD a) increase with running distance to reach a plateau over 30 km/wk, b) are positively associated with peak accelerations over 30 km/week. Discussion: Running may be associated with high peak accelerations in order to have beneficial effects on BMD. More important strains are needed to be associated with the same increase in BMD during running sessions of short duration than those of long duration. Conclusion: CI and vBMD are associated with the magnitude of the shocks during heel strike in runners. Key words: Bone mineral density, strains, physical exercise, running distance.

Non-invasive and non-occlusive blood pressure estimation via a chest sensor.

The clinical demand for a device to monitor Blood Pressure (BP) in ambulatory scenarios with minimal use of inflation cuffs is increasing. Based on the so-called Pulse Wave Velocity (PWV) principle, this paper introduces and evaluates a novel concept of BP monitor that can be fully integrated within a chest sensor. After a preliminary calibration, the sensor provides non-occlusive beat-by-beat estimations of Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP) by measuring the Pulse Transit Time (PTT) of arterial pressure pulses travelling from the ascending aorta towards the subcutaneous vasculature of the chest. In a cohort of 15 healthy male subjects, a total of 462 simultaneous readings consisting of reference MAP and chest PTT were acquired. Each subject was recorded at three different days: D, D+3 and D+14. Overall, the implemented protocol induced MAP values to range from 80 ± 6 mmHg in baseline, to 107 ± 9 mmHg during isometric handgrip maneuvers. Agreement between reference and chest-sensor MAP values was tested by using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.78) and Bland-Altman analysis (mean error = 0.7 mmHg, standard deviation = 5.1 mmHg). The cumulative percentage of MAP values provided by the chest sensor falling within a range of ±5 mmHg compared to reference MAP readings was of 70%, within ±10 mmHg was of 91%, and within ±15mmHg was of 98%. These results point at the fact that the chest sensor complies with the British Hypertension Society (BHS) requirements of Grade A BP monitors, when applied to MAP readings. Grade A performance was maintained even two weeks after having performed the initial subject-dependent calibration. In conclusion, this paper introduces a sensor and a calibration strategy to perform MAP measurements at the chest. The encouraging performance of the presented technique paves the way towards an ambulatory-compliant, continuous and non-occlusive BP monitoring system.

A new method to measure rolling resistance in treadmill cycling.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate a new method of measuring rolling resistance in treadmill cycling and to establish its sensitivity and reproducibility. One participant was asked to keep a bicycle in equilibrium on a treadmill without pedalling at a constant speed of 5.56 m x s(-1), which was held in place in the front by a dynamometer. For each condition, the method consisted of 11 measurements of the force required to hold the cycle at different treadmill slopes (0-10%, increment 1%). The coefficient of rolling resistance was calculated based on the forces applied to the bicycle in equilibrium. To test the sensitivity of the method, the bicycle was successively equipped with three tyre types (700 x 28, 700 x 23, 700 x 22) and inflation pressure was set at 150, 300, 600, 900, and 1100 kPa. To test the reproducibility of the method, a second experimenter repeated all measurements done with the 700 x 23 tyres. The method was sensitive enough to detect an effect of both tyre type and inflation pressure (P < 0.001: two-way ANOVA). The measurement of the coefficient of rolling resistance by two separate experimenters resulted in a small bias of 0.00029 (95% CI, -0.00011 to 0.00068). In conclusion, the new method is sensitive and reliable, as well as being simple and affordable.

Analyse comparative des ressources financières des partis politiques suisses

Les partis politiques ont comme vocation de structurer le débat démocratique et de constituer un trait d'union entre le citoyen et l'Etat. En Suisse, ils sont fortement sollicités en raison de l'importante quantité de scrutins organisés chaque année aux échelons communal, cantonal et national, mais leur organisation reste très peu professionnalisée. Comme ils doivent par ailleurs faire face à l'effritement de leur base partisane et à l'inflation des coûts de la politique, le risque est grand qu'ils soient mis en difficulté dans l'accomplissement de leur tâche d'intégration et de formation de l'opinion. Cette étude se concentre sur les pratiques de financement des partis cantonaux et nationaux du PDC, du PRD, du PS, de l'UDC et des Verts. S'appuyant sur les données empriques récoltées en 1997 et en 2007, elle décrit dans quelle mesure les moyens financiers des partis ont évolué au cours des dix dernières années. Les analyses portent sur le volume et l'origine des fonds et elles permettent notamment de saisir comment s'articulent les clivages en matière de financement. Die politischen Parteien haben die Aufgabe, die demokratische Debatte zu strukturieren und ein verbindendes Element zwischen dem Bürger und dem Staat zu bilden. In der Schweiz werden sie angesichts der grossen Anzahl jährlich auf kommunaler, kantonaler und nationaler Ebene durchgeführten Wahlgänge besonders stark beansprucht, ihre Organisationen sind aber wenig professionalisiert. Da sich die Parteien heute mit abnehmenden Parteienbindungen und steigenden Kosten der Politik konfrontiert sehen, steigt das Risiko, dass sie ihre Aufgaben der Integration und der politischen Meinungsbildung kaum mehr wahrnehmen können. Diese Arbeit konzentriert sich auf die Finanzierungspraktiken der kantonalen und nationalen Parteien CVP, FDP, SP, SVP und Grüne. Die Analysen stützen sich ab auf empirische Angaben zu Herkunft und Umfang der Parteifinanzen, die in den Jahren 1997 und 2007 erhoben wurden und erlauben es, die Unterschiede hinsichtlich der Finanzierung zu erläutern.

Acteurs sociaux et politique économique : la Colombie entre 1970 et 2000

Commençant par la compréhension du processus de prise de décisions en politique économique, puis par l'étude de la participation des Acteurs Sociaux (AS), pour aboutir à l'éclaircissement de leur rôle en politique économique. Le choix des AS correspond aux facteurs productifs :¦? Travail : Syndicat, Confédérations¦? Capital : Patronat, Groupes économiques¦? Ressources naturelles - inclus l'Economie clandestine¦? Esprit d'entreprise dans tous les AS¦Méthode : analyse institutionnelle, AS comme protagonistes. Contexte latino-américain et mondial (chapitre I), relation avec les Politiques (chapitre II), identification des positionnements face aux Politiques économiques (chapitre III). Etude sur deux périodes :¦1) Front National (FN) (1958-1986). Pacte de partis traditionnels pour l'obtention (non accomplie) de la paix et du développement. Objectif acquis via des politiques adéquates mais sans amélioration du domaine social (politique de revenu absente).¦En conséquence, développement des Cartels surpassant l'Intégration Andine. Echec des tentatives d'Ouverture précoce grâce aux Centrales syndicales (1977) aux Organisations patronales (1981), confirmant le bipartisme; crise de la dette sans cessations de paiements, ni décennie perdue (Colombie) ; développement des AS profitant d'absence de partis d'opposition.¦2) L'Ouverture (1989-2000) : Nouvelle Constitution avec amplifications de l'Etat, réformes financière, des échanges, sans sélectivité ni gradualité demandées par les AS. Emergence du blanchiment.¦Montée en puissance des Groupes économiques au détriment des Organisations patronales, (excepté les industriels), perte du lobbying syndical. Malgré des résultats positifs macro-économiques, les taux de chômage, secteur informel, et pauvreté, situent¦le pays au 2eme rang en concentration du revenu en Amérique latine et au 5eme rang mondial.¦Conclusion : les AS se sont mis en avant dans l'inflation (30% à 8%) et la dévaluation. Par contre, les taux d'intérêt et de change ont provoqué le crédit clandestin et la réévaluation avec ouverture aux importations ; pas de succès non plus sur le déficit fiscal ni la gestion des booms (café, drogues). La plupart des Politiques ont donc été décidées d'après la Banque centrale et le Ministère des finances confirmant la primauté du gouvernement sur les AS durant la période analysée.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia: current status and review of the literature.

Treatment of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) challenges obstetricians, pediatric surgeons, and neonatologists. Persistent pulmonary hypertension (PPHT) associated with lung hypoplasia in CDH leads to a high mortality rate at birth. PPHT is principally due to an increased muscularization of the arterioles. Management of CDH has been greatly improved by the introduction of prenatal surgical intervention with tracheal obstruction (TO) and by more appropriate postnatal care. TO appears to accelerate fetal lung growth and to increase the number of capillary vessels and alveoli. Improvement of postnatal care over the last years is mainly due to the avoidance of lung injury by applying low peak inflation pressure during ventilation. The benefits of other drugs or technical improvements such as the use of inhaled nitric oxide or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are still being debated and no single strategy is accepted worldwide. Despite intensive clinical and experimental research, the treatment of newborn with CDH remains difficult.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Igneous layering, fractional crystallization and growth of granitic plutons: The Dolbel batholith in SW Niger

This study reassesses the development of compositional layering during the growth of granitic plutons, with emphasis on fractional crystallization and its interaction with both injection and inflation-related deformation. The Dolbel batholith (SW Niger) consists of 14, kilometre-sized plutons emplaced by pulsed magma inputs. Each pluton has a coarse-grained core and a peripheral layered series. Rocks consist of albite (An(<= 11)), K-feldspar (Or(96 99), Ab(1) (4)), quartz, edenite (X(Mg)=0337-0.55), augite (X(Mg)=0.65-0.72) and accessories (apatite, titanite and Fe-Ti-oxides). Whole-rock compositions are metaluminous, sodic (K(2)O/Na(2)O=0.49-0.62) and iron-rich [FeO(tot)/(FeO(tot)+MgO)=0.65-0.82]. The layering is present as size-graded and modally graded, sub-vertical, rhythmic units. Each unit is composed of three layers, which are, towards the interior: edenite +/- plagioclase (C(a/p)), edenite+plagioclase+augite+quartz (C(q)), and edenite+plagioclase+augite+quartz+K-feldspar (C(k)). All phases except quartz show zoned microstructures consisting of external intercumulus overgrowths, a central section showing oscillatory zoning and, in the case of amphibole and titanite, complexly zoned cores. Ba and Sr contents of feldspars decrease towards the rims. Plagioclase crystal size distributions are similar in all units, suggesting that each unit experienced a similar thermal history. Edenite, characteristic of the basal C(a/p) layer, is the earliest phase to crystallize. Microtextures and phase diagrams suggest that edenite cores may have been brought up with magma batches at the site of emplacement and mechanically segregated along the crystallized wall, whereas outer zones of the same crystals formed in situ. The subsequent C(q) layers correspond to cotectic compositions in the Qz-Ab-Or phase diagram at P(H2O)=5 kbar. Each rhythmic unit may therefore correspond to a magma batch and their repetition to crystallization of recurrent magma recharges. Microtextures and chemical variations in major phases allow four main crystallization stages to be distinguished: (1) open-system crystallization in a stirred magma during magma emplacement, involving dissolution and overgrowth (core of edenite and titanite crystals); (2) in situ fractional crystallization in boundary layers (C(a/p) and C(q) layers); (3) equilibrium `en masse' eutectic crystallization (C(k) layers); (4) compaction and crystallization of the interstitial liquid in a highly crystallized mush (e. g. feldspar intercumulus overgrowths). It is concluded that the formation of the layered series in the Dolbel plutons corresponds principally to in situ differentiation of successive magma batches. The variable thickness of the Ck layers and the microtextures show that crystallization of a rhythmic unit stops and it is compacted when a new magma batch is injected into the chamber. Therefore, assembly of pulsed magma injections and fractional crystallization are independent, but complementary, processes during pluton construction.

The habenula encodes negative motivational value associated with primary punishment in humans.

Learning what to approach, and what to avoid, involves assigning value to environmental cues that predict positive and negative events. Studies in animals indicate that the lateral habenula encodes the previously learned negative motivational value of stimuli. However, involvement of the habenula in dynamic trial-by-trial aversive learning has not been assessed, and the functional role of this structure in humans remains poorly characterized, in part, due to its small size. Using high-resolution functional neuroimaging and computational modeling of reinforcement learning, we demonstrate positive habenula responses to the dynamically changing values of cues signaling painful electric shocks, which predict behavioral suppression of responses to those cues across individuals. By contrast, negative habenula responses to monetary reward cue values predict behavioral invigoration. Our findings show that the habenula plays a key role in an online aversive learning system and in generating associated motivated behavior in humans.

Essays in equilibrium asset pricing

Introduction This dissertation consists of three essays in equilibrium asset pricing. The first chapter studies the asset pricing implications of a general equilibrium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall capital of the economy. Positive shocks to the capital of the firm increase the size of the firm and reduce the value of growth options. As a result, the firm is burdened with more unproductive capital and its value lowers with respect to the accumulated capital. The optimal consumption policy alters the optimal allocation of resources and affects firm's value, generating mean-reverting dynamics for the M/B ratios. The model (1) captures convergence of price-to-book ratios -negative for growth stocks and positive for value stocks - (firm migration), (2) generates deviations from the classic CAPM in line with the cross-sectional variation in expected stock returns and (3) generates a non-monotone relationship between Tobin's q and conditional volatility consistent with the empirical evidence. The second chapter proposes a standard portfolio-choice problem with transaction costs and mean reversion in expected returns. In the presence of transactions costs, no matter how small, arbitrage activity does not necessarily render equal all riskless rates of return. When two such rates follow stochastic processes, it is not optimal immediately to arbitrage out any discrepancy that arises between them. The reason is that immediate arbitrage would induce a definite expenditure of transactions costs whereas, without arbitrage intervention, there exists some, perhaps sufficient, probability that these two interest rates will come back together without any costs having been incurred. Hence, one can surmise that at equilibrium the financial market will permit the coexistence of two riskless rates that are not equal to each other. For analogous reasons, randomly fluctuating expected rates of return on risky assets will be allowed to differ even after correction for risk, leading to important violations of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The combination of randomness in expected rates of return and proportional transactions costs is a serious blow to existing frictionless pricing models. Finally, in the last chapter I propose a two-countries two-goods general equilibrium economy with uncertainty about the fundamentals' growth rates to study the joint behavior of equity volatilities and correlation at the business cycle frequency. I assume that dividend growth rates jump from one state to other, while countries' switches are possibly correlated. The model is solved in closed-form and the analytical expressions for stock prices are reported. When calibrated to the empirical data of United States and United Kingdom, the results show that, given the existing degree of synchronization across these business cycles, the model captures quite well the historical patterns of stock return volatilities. Moreover, I can explain the time behavior of the correlation, but exclusively under the assumption of a global business cycle.

Brachial or wrist blood pressure in obese patients : which is the best ?

RESUME L'obésité et l'hypertension atteignent des niveaux épidémiques aussi bien dans les pays industrialisés que dans ceux en voie de développement. La coexistence de ces deux pathologies est associée à un risque cardiovasculaire augmenté. Traditionnellement on mesure la pression artérielle (PA) au bras au moyen d'un brassard qui détermine la pression systolique et diastolique en utilisant soit la méthode auscultatoire ou oscillométrique. L'utilisation d'un brassard de taille standard chez le patient avec un tour de bras augmenté peut surestimer la pression artérielle. Il semble même qu'il existe un rapport idéal entre le tour de bras, et la taille du brassard La mesure à domicile de la pression artérielle avec des appareils validés donne des valeurs de la PA valables. Plusieurs appareils existent sur le marché et depuis quelques années les appareils de mesure de la PA au poignet font leur apparition sur le marché. Cette étude vise à comparer chez des sujets sains et obèses les valeurs de PA obtenues au poignet avec celles obtenues au bras en utilisant deux appareils validés l'OMRON HEM 705-CP et l'OMRON R6. L'OMRON HEM 705-CP permet l'utilisation soit d'un brassard standard (13x30 cm) ou d'un brassard large (16x38 cm), et l'OMRON R6 mesure la PA au poignet. Nous avons comparé un groupe de sujets obèses [Body Mass Index (BMI) >35kg/m2] avec un groupe de sujets sains (BMI <25kg/m2). Ont été exclues de l'étudé les personnes prenant un traitement antihypertenseur ainsi que celles souffrant d'arythmies. La PA a été mesurée en position assise avec le bras gauche sur une table à hauteur du coeur. Un brassard large a été employé pour les sujets obèses et un brassard standard pour les sujets sains. Trois mesures ont été effectuées, la première après une pause de 5 min et chacune des suivantes avec un intervalle de 2 min. La pression d'inflation maximale a été fixée à 170 mmHg. Nous avons utilisé la formule proposée par Marks LA et al pour déterminer si le rapport entre la taille des brassards fournis avec l'OMRON .HEM 705-CP et le tour de bras de nos sujets était optimal (taille du brassard = 9.34 x log10 taille du bras). Nos résultats ne montrent pas de différence statistiquement significative de la PA diastolique entre les deux groupes, qu'elle soit mesurée au bras ou au poignet. La PA systolique mesurée au bras s'est par contre avérée significativement plus basse chez les sujets obèses que chez les sujets sains. Aucune différence n'a été trouvée lorsque la mesure est effectuée au poignet. En utilisant la formule fournie par Marks le rapport entre taille du brassard (large chez les obèses) et tour de bras a été de 10.30±30 chez les sujets obèses et 9.630.45 chez les sujets sains (p<0.001). Le rapport entre tour de bras et brassard chez les sujets obèses est nettement au-dessus de la valeur optimale, ce qui suggère une possible sous-estimation de la PA systolique chez ces sujets. Ces résultats suggèrent qu'il existe un risque de sous-estimer la PA chez le patient obèse lors de l'utilisation d'un brassard large. Cette erreur pourrait être réduite par l'utilisation d'appareils de mesure au poignet. validés chez le sujet obèse.

Défibrillateur automatique implantable (DAI): principes de base et indications cliniques actuelles [Implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD): basics and present clinical guidelines].

An implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) is a cardiac implantable electronic device that is capable of identifying and treating ventricular arrhythmias. Consideration about the type of ICD to select for a given patient include whether the patient has bradycardia requiring pacing support, has associated atrial tachyarrhythmias, or would benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy. The ICD functions by continuously monitoring the patient's cardiac rate and delivering therapies (anti-tachycardia pacing, shocks) when the rate exceeds the programmed rate "cutoff". Secondary prevention trials have demonstrated that ICDs reduce the incidence of arrhythmic death and total mortality in patients presenting with a cardiac arrest. ICDs are also indicated for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in specific high-risk subgroups of patients.

Faire une pause ou bifurquer ? Essai de typologie des trajectoires de formation

Cette analyse de l'évolution de la formation en Suisse s'appuie sur la forme des itinéraires suivis. La typologie construite permet de mesurer l'évolution, sur près de soixante-dix ans, des trajectoires empruntées selon l'origine sociale et de montrer l'émergence de nouveaux parcours. Les données attestent un accroissement des parcours atypiques, à cheval sur plusieurs filières, comportant des interruptions ou composés de formations complémentaires. Plus qu'à une égalisation du niveau d'éducation, on assiste à une inflation des diplômes, caractérisée par une multiplication des périodes de formations tardives, plutôt mesurable à la complexification des parcours qu'au niveau final atteint. On peut donc faire l'hypothèse que ce n'est plus le diplôme atteint qui détermine la valeur de la formation suivie mais le nombre et la pertinence des reformations.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.