The application of trend surface models to the analysis of time factors in Swiss cancer mortality.

To study different temporal components on cancer mortality (age, period and cohort) methods of graphic representation were applied to Swiss mortality data from 1950 to 1984. Maps using continuous slopes ("contour maps") and based on eight tones of grey according to the absolute distribution of rates were used to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. Further, progressively more complex regression surface equations were defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age/cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific mortality rate). General patterns of trends in cancer mortality were thus identified, permitting definition of important cohort (e.g., upwards for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, or downwards for stomach) or period (e.g., downwards for intestines or thyroid cancers) effects, besides the major underlying age component. For most cancer sites, even the lower order (1st to 3rd) models utilised provided excellent fitting, allowing immediate identification of the residuals (e.g., high or low mortality points) as well as estimates of first-order interactions between the three factors, although the parameters of the main effects remained still undetermined. Thus, the method should be essentially used as summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in (cancer) mortality, although they cannot conceptually solve the inherent problem of identifiability of the three components.

Overall and cause-specific mortality in GH-deficient adults on GH replacement.

OBJECTIVE: Hypopituitarism is associated with an increased mortality rate but the reasons underlying this have not been fully elucidated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate mortality and associated factors within a large GH-replaced population of hypopituitary patients. DESIGN: In KIMS (Pfizer International Metabolic Database) 13,983 GH-deficient patients with 69,056 patient-years of follow-up were available. METHODS: This study analysed standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) by Poisson regression. IGF1 SDS was used as an indicator of adequacy of GH replacement. Statistical significance was set to P<0.05. RESULTS: All-cause mortality was 13% higher compared with normal population rates (SMR, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.24). Significant associations were female gender, younger age at follow-up, underlying diagnosis of Cushing's disease, craniopharyngioma and aggressive tumour and presence of diabetes insipidus. After controlling for confounding factors, there were statistically significant negative associations between IGF1 SDS after 1, 2 and 3 years of GH replacement and SMR. For cause-specific mortality there was a negative association between 1-year IGF1 SDS and SMR for deaths from cardiovascular diseases (P=0.017) and malignancies (P=0.044). CONCLUSIONS: GH-replaced patients with hypopituitarism demonstrated a modest increase in mortality rate; this appears lower than that previously published in GH-deficient patients. Factors associated with increased mortality included female gender, younger attained age, aetiology and lower IGF1 SDS during therapy. These data indicate that GH replacement in hypopituitary adults with GH deficiency may be considered a safe treatment.

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia: current status and review of the literature.

Treatment of congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) challenges obstetricians, pediatric surgeons, and neonatologists. Persistent pulmonary hypertension (PPHT) associated with lung hypoplasia in CDH leads to a high mortality rate at birth. PPHT is principally due to an increased muscularization of the arterioles. Management of CDH has been greatly improved by the introduction of prenatal surgical intervention with tracheal obstruction (TO) and by more appropriate postnatal care. TO appears to accelerate fetal lung growth and to increase the number of capillary vessels and alveoli. Improvement of postnatal care over the last years is mainly due to the avoidance of lung injury by applying low peak inflation pressure during ventilation. The benefits of other drugs or technical improvements such as the use of inhaled nitric oxide or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are still being debated and no single strategy is accepted worldwide. Despite intensive clinical and experimental research, the treatment of newborn with CDH remains difficult.

Impact of preoperative embolization of the left gastric artery on the rate of anastomotic leakage after esophageal resection

Objective: Impaired blood flow of the gastric tube represents a major cause of anastomotic leakage after esophageal resection. In order to improve local vascularisation, preoperative embolization (PE) of the left gastric artery has recently been proposed. The aimof this study was to assess our initial experience of this novel approach with a particular focus on anastomotic leakage.Methods: A consecutive series of 102 patients (81 male, 21 female, median age 64 years) underwent resection (82 Ivor-Lewis procedures, 9 transhiatal resections, 11 triple incisions) for esophageal malignancies at our institution from 2000 to 2009. Since 2004, PE was used selectively in 19 patients 21 days prior to elective esophagectomy. Selection criteria were normal gastric vascular anatomy, no pre-existing vascular disease, i.e. atheromatosis of the celiac trunk or superior mesenteric artery, and resectability of the tumor. PE was performed under local anesthesia on a dedicated system in a standard fashion. Following percutaneous transfemoral visceral angiography to identify gastric vascular anatomy, embolization was performed either with 5-F or with coaxial 3-F catheters and fibered metal coils. We analyzed retrospectively patient's data, operative data, and outcome from a prospective database.Results: The overall anastomotic leakage rate was 18・6% (19/102 patients); cervical anastomosis had a leak rate of 25% compared to intrathoracic anastomosis leak rate of 18・2%. While 17 of 83 patients without PE developed anastomotic leakage (20・5%), there were only 2 of 19 patients after PE revealing an anastomotic leakage (10・5%). Otherwise, patients with PE had no more other complications. There was only one PE-related complication (i.e. partial splenic necrosis).Mean hospital stay was 25 days versus 27 days for patients with PE and without PE, respectively. The mortality rate was 7・8% (8/102 patients), whereby four deaths were related to anastomotic leakage (1 and 3 patients with PE and without PE, respectively).Conclusion: PE is an interesting novel approach to improve gastric blood flow in order to minimize anastomotic leakage. Its application is safe and technically easy. Our preliminary experience revealed a decrease of the anastomotic leakage rate of almost 50%.

HIV-induced immunodeficiency and mortality from AIDS-defining and non-AIDS-defining malignancies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate deaths from AIDS-defining malignancies (ADM) and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (nADM) in the D:A:D Study and to investigate the relationship between these deaths and immunodeficiency. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: Patients (23 437) were followed prospectively for 104 921 person-years. We used Poisson regression models to identify factors independently associated with deaths from ADM and nADM. Analyses of factors associated with mortality due to nADM were repeated after excluding nADM known to be associated with a specific risk factor. RESULTS: Three hundred five patients died due to a malignancy, 298 prior to the cutoff for this analysis (ADM: n = 110; nADM: n = 188). The mortality rate due to ADM decreased from 20.1/1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.4, 25.9] when the most recent CD4 cell count was <50 cells/microl to 0.1 (0.03, 0.3)/1000 person-years of follow-up when the CD4 cell count was more than 500 cells/microl; the mortality rate from nADM decreased from 6.0 (95% CI 3.3, 10.1) to 0.6 (0.4, 0.8) per 1000 person-years of follow-up between these two CD4 cell count strata. In multivariable regression analyses, a two-fold higher latest CD4 cell count was associated with a halving of the risk of ADM mortality. Other predictors of an increased risk of ADM mortality were homosexual risk group, older age, a previous (non-malignancy) AIDS diagnosis and earlier calendar years. Predictors of an increased risk of nADM mortality included lower CD4 cell count, older age, current/ex-smoking status, longer cumulative exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy, active hepatitis B infection and earlier calendar year. CONCLUSION: The severity of immunosuppression is predictive of death from both ADM and nADM in HIV-infected populations.

Pneumocystis jirovecii genotype associated with increased death rate of HIV-infected patients with pneumonia.

Pneumocystis jirovecii dihydropteroate synthase (DHPS) mutations have been associated with failure of sulfa prophylaxis; their effect on the outcome of patients with P. jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) remains controversial. P. jirovecii DHPS polymorphisms and genotypes were identified in 112 cases of PCP in 110 HIV-infected patients by using PCR single-strand conformation polymorphism. Of the 110 patients observed, 21 died; 18 of those deaths were attributed to PCP. Thirty-three percent of the PCP cases involved a P. jirovecii strain that had 1 or both DHPS mutations. The presence or absence of DHPS mutations had no effect on the PCP mortality rate within 1 month, whereas P.jirovecii type 7 and mechanical ventilation at PCP diagnosis were associated with an increased risk of death caused by PCP. Mechanical ventilation at PCP diagnosis was also associated with an increased risk of sulfa treatment failure at 5 days.

Partial Cricotracheal Resection in Children: Potential Pitfalls and Avoidance of Complications.

OBJECTIVES: To delineate the various factors contributing to failure or delay in decannulation after partial cricotracheal resection (PCTR) in children. STUDY DESIGN: Case series. SETTING: Academic tertiary medical center. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A retrospective case review of 100 children who underwent PCTR between 1978 and 2008 for severe subglottic stenosis using an ongoing database. RESULTS: Ninety of 100 (90%) patients were decannulated. Six patients needed secondary tracheostomy. The results of the preoperative evaluation showed grade II stenosis in four patients, grade III in 64 patients, and grade IV in 32 patients. The overall decannulation rate was 100 percent in grade II, 95 percent in grade III, and 78 percent in grade IV stenosis. Fourteen (14%) patients required revision open surgery. The most common cause of revision surgery was posterior glottic stenosis. Partial anastomotic dehiscence was seen in four patients. Delayed decannulation (>1 year) occurred in nine patients. Overall mortality rate in the whole series was 6 percent. No deaths were directly related to the surgery. No iatrogenic recurrent laryngeal nerve injury was present in the entire series. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities and associated syndromes should be addressed before PCTR is planned to improve the final postoperative outcome in terms of decannulation. Perioperative morbidity due to anastomotic dehiscence, to a certain extent, can be avoided by intraoperative judgment in the selection of double-stage surgery when more than five tracheal rings need to be resected. Subglottic stenosis with glottic involvement continues to pose a difficult challenge to pediatric otolaryngologists, often necessitating revision procedures.

Tracheostomy in children.

We reviewed the records of 108 patients who had a tracheostomy performed over a 10-year period from July 1979 to April 1989. Median age at tracheostomy was 6 months (1 week-15 years). Indications for surgery were acquired subglottic stenosis (31.4%), bilateral vocal cord paralysis (22.2%), congenital airway malformations (22.2%) and tumours (11.1%). No epiglottis and no emergency situation had to be managed by tracheostomy. Operation was uneventful in all, but 8 patients (7.4%) developed a pneumothorax in the postoperative period. Twenty-one (19.5%) had severe complications during the cannulation period (tube obstruction in 11 patients with cardiorespiratory arrest in 4; dislocation of the tube in 6 patients). Fifteen patients (13.8%) had severe complications after decannulation (2 had a cardiorespiratory arrest); all 15 had to be recannulated. At the end of the study period 85 patients (78.7%) were successfully decannulated with a median period of tracheostomy of 486 days (8 days-6.6 years). The median hospital stay was 159 days (13 days-2.7 years). All patients could be discharged. Eight patients (7.4%) died but no death was related to tracheostomy. In summary the mortality rate is lower than reported in previous reviews and tracheostomy is a safe operation even in small children but cannula-related complications may lead to life-threatening events. The management of tracheostomized small children and infants in a highly staffed and monitored intensive care unit has allowed better handling of complications and has resulted in a reduction in cannula-related deaths.

The night: a dangerous time to be born?

An analysis of perinatal mortality by hour of birth among 10,059 births in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) during the years 1979-1982 showed that fewer births occurred at night than during the day. The variations in number of births by hour of birth were attributed to obstetric practices. The perinatal mortality rate for night-time births was more than twice as high as that for the daytime births (+127%, P less than 0.001) and the rates for night-time births exceeded those for daytime births for 13 of the 19 causes of death examined. A higher proportion of the low and very-low-birthweight babies (less than 2500 g and less than 1500 g) were born at night between 19.00 and 06.59 hours.

The effect of combined antiretroviral therapy on the overall mortality of HIV-infected individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) on mortality among HIV-infected individuals after appropriate adjustment for time-varying confounding by indication. DESIGN: A collaboration of 12 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States (the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration) that includes 62 760 HIV-infected, therapy-naive individuals followed for an average of 3.3 years. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to adjust for measured confounding by indication. RESULTS: Two thousand and thirty-nine individuals died during the follow-up. The mortality hazard ratio was 0.48 (95% confidence interval 0.41-0.57) for cART initiation versus no initiation. In analyses stratified by CD4 cell count at baseline, the corresponding hazard ratios were 0.29 (0.22-0.37) for less than 100 cells/microl, 0.33 (0.25-0.44) for 100 to less than 200 cells/microl, 0.38 (0.28-0.52) for 200 to less than 350 cells/microl, 0.55 (0.41-0.74) for 350 to less than 500 cells/microl, and 0.77 (0.58-1.01) for 500 cells/microl or more. The estimated hazard ratio varied with years since initiation of cART from 0.57 (0.49-0.67) for less than 1 year since initiation to 0.21 (0.14-0.31) for 5 years or more (P value for trend <0.001). CONCLUSION: We estimated that cART halved the average mortality rate in HIV-infected individuals. The mortality reduction was greater in those with worse prognosis at the start of follow-up.

Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population.

CONTEXT: Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS: Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

Partial cricotracheal resection for congenital subglottic stenosis in children: the effect of concomitant anomalies.

OBJECTIVE: To review the surgical outcomes of partial cricotracheal resection in children with severe congenital subglottic stenosis and define the effect of concomitant anomalies or syndromes affecting outcome. METHODS: Forty-one children with subglottic stenosis of congenital and mixed (acquired on congenital) etiologies who underwent partial cricotracheal resection were identified from a prospectively collected database. Children with congenital subglottic stenosis and concomitant anomalies/syndromes were compared to children with congenital subglottic stenosis with no syndromes or concomitant anomalies. Operation-specific decannulation rates and complication rates were the primary outcome measures. We performed a two-sample test of proportion using the STATA-10 software for categorical variables to detect differences in proportions. Significance was set at p value<0.05. RESULTS: Twenty-seven (66%) of 41 children had concomitant anomalies/syndromes and 14 (34%) had congenital subglottic stenosis without concomitant anomalies/syndromes. Four patients needed revision surgery in the concomitant anomaly group and two patients needed revision surgery in the non concomitant anomaly group before achieving decannulation. The operation-specific decannulation rate in the concomitant anomaly group was 85% and 86% in the non anomaly group. When compared to children without concomitant anomaly, children with concomitant anomalies were more likely to have delayed decannulation following partial cricotracheal resection. However, this difference was not found to be statistically significant. The complication and operation-specific decannulation rates after partial cricotracheal resection were comparable to children without concomitant anomalies. Mortality rate was 11% (three of 27 patients) in the group with associated congenital anomalies or syndromes. Two patients succumbed to the primary pathology and one patient died due to tracheostomy-tube obstruction. There was no post-operative death in the non anomaly group. CONCLUSION: Partial cricotracheal resection can be done safely and effectively in children with concomitant anomalies/syndromes to achieve decannulation. The post-operative course may be prolonged but the decannulation and the complication rates are comparable to those children with congenital subglottic stenosis without concomitant anomalies.

In-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients undergoing early surgery for prosthetic valve endocarditis.

IMPORTANCE: There are limited prospective, controlled data evaluating survival in patients receiving early surgery vs medical therapy for prosthetic valve endocarditis (PVE). OBJECTIVE: To determine the in-hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with PVE who undergo valve replacement during index hospitalization compared with patients who receive medical therapy alone, after controlling for survival and treatment selection bias. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006 in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), a prospective, multinational, observational cohort of patients with infective endocarditis. Patients hospitalized with definite right- or left-sided PVE were included in the analysis. We evaluated the effect of treatment assignment on mortality, after adjusting for biases using a Cox proportional hazards model that included inverse probability of treatment weighting and surgery as a time-dependent covariate. The cohort was stratified by probability (propensity) for surgery, and outcomes were compared between the treatment groups within each stratum. INTERVENTIONS: Valve replacement during index hospitalization (early surgery) vs medical therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1025 patients with PVE, 490 patients (47.8%) underwent early surgery and 535 individuals (52.2%) received medical therapy alone. Compared with medical therapy, early surgery was associated with lower in-hospital mortality in the unadjusted analysis and after controlling for treatment selection bias (in-hospital mortality: hazard ratio [HR], 0.44 [95% CI, 0.38-0.52] and lower 1-year mortality: HR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.49-0.67]). The lower mortality associated with surgery did not persist after adjustment for survivor bias (in-hospital mortality: HR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.76-1.07] and 1-year mortality: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.89-1.23]). Subgroup analysis indicated a lower in-hospital mortality with early surgery in the highest surgical propensity quintile (21.2% vs 37.5%; P = .03). At 1-year follow-up, the reduced mortality with surgery was observed in the fourth (24.8% vs 42.9%; P = .007) and fifth (27.9% vs 50.0%; P = .007) quintiles of surgical propensity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Prosthetic valve endocarditis remains associated with a high 1-year mortality rate. After adjustment for differences in clinical characteristics and survival bias, early valve replacement was not associated with lower mortality compared with medical therapy in the overall cohort. Further studies are needed to define the effect and timing of surgery in patients with PVE who have indications for surgery.

Low C-reactive protein values at admission predict mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae that require intensive care management.

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by S. pneumoniae who require intensive care unit (ICU) management, and to assess the prognostic values of these risk factors at the time of admission. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients with CAP caused by S. pneumoniae who were admitted to the 32-bed medico-surgical ICU of a community and referral university hospital between 2002 and 2011. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on variables available at admission. RESULTS: Among the 77 adult patients with severe CAP caused by S. pneumoniae who required ICU management, 12 patients died (observed mortality rate 15.6 %). Univariate analysis indicated that septic shock and low C-reactive protein (CRP) values at admission were associated with an increased risk of death. In a multivariate model, after adjustment for age and gender, septic shock [odds ratio (OR), confidence interval 95 %; 4.96, 1.11-22.25; p = 0.036], and CRP (OR 0.99, 0.98-0.99 p = 0.034) remained significantly associated with death. Finally, we assessed the discriminative ability of CRP to predict mortality by computing its receiver operating characteristic curve. The CRP value cut-off for the best sensitivity and specificity was 169.5 mg/L to predict hospital mortality with an area under the curve of 0.72 (0.55-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality of patients with S. pneumoniae CAP requiring ICU management was much lower than predicted by severity scores. The presence of septic shock and a CRP value at admission <169.5 mg/L predicted a fatal outcome.

External assessment of the Early Mortality Risk Score in patients with adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Pancreaticoduodenectomies (PD) still have a substantial mortality rate. Recently, different scores have been published to predict the mortality risk pre-operatively after PD. This retrospective study was designed to perform an external assessment of an Early Mortality Risk Score (EMRS). METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, all PD cases performed at our institution were documented. Only patients treated for pancreatic head adenocarcinomas were included. Survival time and EMRS (based on age, tumour size, tumour differentiation and comorbidities) were calculated for every patient. Relative risks (RR) of early death 9 and 12 months after PD were then calculated. RESULTS: Of 270 PD for various aetiologies, 120 PD for adenocarcinomas were included. The median follow-up was 37 months, and the overall median survival was 19 months. EMRS of 4 showed a mortality RR of 5.1 at 9 months (P = 0.048) and of 4.5 at 12 months (P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: EMRS of 4 is a predictor of tumour-related mortality at 9 and 12 months after PD for adenocarcinoma. The EMRS was externally assessed in our patient cohort and can be implemented in clinical practice. Clinical implications of this score still need to be studied.