Disseminated M. avium complex infection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: declining incidence, improved prognosis and discontinuation of maintenance therapy.

Introduction of potent antiretroviral combination therapy (ART) has reduced overall morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected adults. Some prophylactic regimes against opportunistic infections can be discontinued in patients under successful ART. (1) The influence of the availability of ART on incidence and mortality of disseminated M. avium Complex infection (MAC). (2) The safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy against MAC in patients on ART. The Swiss HIV-Cohort Study, a prospective multicentre study of HIV-infected adults. Patients with a nadir CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3 were considered at risk for MAC and contributed to total follow-up time for calculating the incidence. Survival analysis was performed by using Kaplan Meier and Cox proportional hazards methods. Safety of discontinuation of maintenance therapy was evaluated by review of the medical notes. 398 patients were diagnosed with MAC from 1990 to 1999. 350 had a previous CD4 count below 50 cells/mm3. A total of 3208 patients had a nadir CD4 count of less than 50 cells/mm3 during the study period and contributed to a total follow-up of 6004 person-years. The incidence over the whole study period was 5.8 events per 100 person-years. In the time period of available ART the incidence of MAC was significantly reduced (1.4 versus 8.8 events per 100 person-years, p < 0.001). Being diagnosed after 1995 was the most powerful predictor of better survival (adjusted hazard ratio for death: 0.27; p < 0.001). None of 24 patients discontinuing maintenance therapy while on ART experienced recurrence of MAC during a total follow-up of 56.6 person-years (upper 95% confidence limit 5.3 per 100 person-years). Introducing ART has markedly reduced the risk of MAC for HIV-infected individuals with a history of very low CD4 counts. Survival after diagnosis of MAC has improved after ART became available. In patients responding to ART, discontinuation of maintenance therapy against M. avium may be safe.

Activation of a dendritic cell-T cell axis by Ad5 immune complexes creates an improved environment for replication of HIV in T cells.

The STEP HIV vaccine trial, which evaluated a replication-defective adenovirus type 5 (Ad5) vector vaccine, was recently stopped. The reasons for this included lack of efficacy of the vaccine and a twofold increase in the incidence of HIV acquisition among vaccinated recipients with increased Ad5-neutralizing antibody titers compared with placebo recipients. To model the events that might be occurring in vivo, the effect on dendritic cells (DCs) of Ad5 vector alone or treated with neutralizing antiserum (Ad5 immune complexes [IC]) was compared. Ad5 IC induced more notable DC maturation, as indicated by increased CD86 expression, decreased endocytosis, and production of tumor necrosis factor and type I interferons. We found that DC stimulation by Ad5 IC was mediated by the Fcgamma receptor IIa and Toll-like receptor 9 interactions. DCs treated with Ad5 IC also induced significantly higher stimulation of Ad5-specific CD8 T cells equipped with cytolytic machinery. In contrast to Ad5 vectors alone, Ad5 IC caused significantly enhanced HIV infection in DC-T cell cocultures. The present results indicate that Ad5 IC activates a DC-T cell axis that, together with the possible persistence of the Ad5 vaccine in seropositive individuals, may set up a permissive environment for HIV-1 infection, which could account for the increased acquisition of HIV-1 infection among Ad5 seropositive vaccine recipients.

Three-dimensional slope stability analysis of South Peak, Crowsnest Pass, Alberta, Canada

South Peak is a 7-Mm3 potentially unstable rock mass located adjacent to the 1903 Frank Slide on Turtle Mountain, Alberta. This paper presents three-dimensional numerical rock slope stability models and compares them with a previous conceptual slope instability model based on discontinuity surfaces identified using an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model (DEM). Rock mass conditions at South Peak are described using the Geological Strength Index and point load tests, whilst the mean discontinuity set orientations and characteristics are based on approximately 500 field measurements. A kinematic analysis was first conducted to evaluate probable simple discontinuity-controlled failure modes. The potential for wedge failure was further assessed by considering the orientation of wedge intersections over the airborne LiDAR DEM and through a limit equilibrium combination analysis. Block theory was used to evaluate the finiteness and removability of blocks in the rock mass. Finally, the complex interaction between discontinuity sets and the topography within South Peak was investigated through three-dimensional distinct element models using the code 3DEC. The influence of individual discontinuity sets, scale effects, friction angle and the persistence along the discontinuity surfaces on the slope stability conditions were all investigated using this code.

Gains from switching and evolutionary stability in multi-player matrix games.

In this paper we unify, simplify, and extend previous work on the evolutionary dynamics of symmetric N-player matrix games with two pure strategies. In such games, gains from switching strategies depend, in general, on how many other individuals in the group play a given strategy. As a consequence, the gain function determining the gradient of selection can be a polynomial of degree N-1. In order to deal with the intricacy of the resulting evolutionary dynamics, we make use of the theory of polynomials in Bernstein form. This theory implies a tight link between the sign pattern of the gains from switching on the one hand and the number and stability of the rest points of the replicator dynamics on the other hand. While this relationship is a general one, it is most informative if gains from switching have at most two sign changes, as is the case for most multi-player matrix games considered in the literature. We demonstrate that previous results for public goods games are easily recovered and extended using this observation. Further examples illustrate how focusing on the sign pattern of the gains from switching obviates the need for a more involved analysis.

Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

Improved virological outcome in White patients infected with HIV-1 non-B subtypes compared to subtype B.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral compounds have been predominantly studied in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B, but only ~10% of infections worldwide are caused by this subtype. The analysis of the impact of different HIV subtypes on treatment outcome is important. METHODS: The effect of HIV-1 subtype B and non-B on the time to virological failure while taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) was analyzed. Other studies that have addressed this question were limited by the strong correlation between subtype and ethnicity. Our analysis was restricted to white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who started cART between 1996 and 2009. Cox regression models were performed; adjusted for age, sex, transmission category, first cART, baseline CD4 cell counts, and HIV RNA levels; and stratified for previous mono/dual nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor treatment. RESULTS: Included in our study were 4729 patients infected with subtype B and 539 with non-B subtypes. The most prevalent non-B subtypes were CRF02_AG (23.8%), A (23.4%), C (12.8%), and CRF01_AE (12.6%). The incidence of virological failure was higher in patients with subtype B (4.3 failures/100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-4.5]) compared with non-B (1.8 failures/100 person-years; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4). Cox regression models confirmed that patients infected with non-B subtypes had a lower risk of virological failure than those infected with subtype B (univariable hazard ratio [HR], 0.39 [95% CI, .30-.52; P < .001]; multivariable HR, 0.68 [95% CI, .51-.91; P = .009]). In particular, subtypes A and CRF02_AG revealed improved outcomes (multivariable HR, 0.54 [95% CI, .29-.98] and 0.39 [95% CI, .19-.79], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Improved virological outcomes among patients infected with non-B subtypes invalidate concerns that these individuals are at a disadvantage because drugs have been designed primarily for subtype B infections.

Is the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy improved by the use of explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria?

BACKGROUND: Increasing the appropriateness of use of upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy is important to improve quality of care while at the same time containing costs. This study explored whether detailed explicit appropriateness criteria significantly improve the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy. METHODS: Consecutive patients referred for upper GI endoscopy at 6 centers (1 university hospital, 2 district hospitals, 3 gastroenterology practices) were prospectively included over a 6-month period. After controlling for disease presentation and patient characteristics, the relationship between the appropriateness of upper GI endoscopy, as assessed by explicit Swiss criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA panel method, and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 2088 patients (60% outpatients, 57% men) were included. Analysis was restricted to the 1681 patients referred for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy. Forty-six percent of upper GI endoscopies were judged to be appropriate, 15% uncertain, and 39% inappropriate by the explicit criteria. No cancer was found in upper GI endoscopies judged to be inappropriate. Upper GI endoscopies judged appropriate or uncertain yielded significantly more relevant lesions (60%) than did those judged to be inappropriate (37%; odds ratio 2.6: 95% CI [2.2, 3.2]). In multivariate analyses, the diagnostic yield of upper GI endoscopy was significantly influenced by appropriateness, patient gender and age, treatment setting, and symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Upper GI endoscopies performed for appropriate indications resulted in detecting significantly more clinically relevant lesions than did those performed for inappropriate indications. In addition, no upper GI endoscopy that resulted in a diagnosis of cancer was judged to be inappropriate. The use of such criteria improves patient selection for upper GI endoscopy and can thus contribute to efforts aimed at enhancing the quality and efficiency of care. (Gastrointest Endosc 2000;52:333-41).

Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LIDAR data

On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm3 landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.

Dimensionality of drinking consequences - cross-cultural comparability and stability over time

Despite the long tradition for asking about the negative social and health consequences of alcohol consumption in surveys, little is known about the dimensionality of these consequences. Analysing cross-sectional and longitudinal data from the Nordic Taxation Study collected for Sweden, Finland, and Denmark in two waves in 2003 and 2004 by means of an explorative principal component analysis for categorical data (CATPCA), it is tested whether consequences have a single underlying dimension across cultures. It further tests the reliability, replicability, concurrent and predictive validity of the consequence scales. A one-dimensional solution was commonly preferable. Whereas the two-dimensional solution was unable to distinguish clearly between different concepts of consequences, the one-dimensional solution resulted in interpretable, generally very stable scales within countries across different samples and time.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Early broncoconstriction in anesthetized sheep: a simplified experimental model of asthma

Résumé Cette étude décrit un modèle expérimental de bronchoconstriction précoce induite par aérosolisation d'un extrait d'Ascaris suum chez des moutons anesthésiés par de l'isoflurane et ventilés mécaniquement. Dix moutons adultes ont été anesthésiés et ventilés mécaniquement puis ont été exposés à un stimulus bronchoconstrictif sous forme d'un aérosol d'extrait d'Ascaris suum durant 25 minutes. Tous les moutons ont été exposés deux fois à huit semaines d'intervalle à ce même stimulus. Les échanges gazeux ainsi que les paramètres respiratoires ont été mesurés régulièrement durant la période d'aérosolisation ainsi que durant les 60 minutes suivantes. A la fin de la période d'aérosolisation, une augmentation significative (p<0.05) des pressions de crête (+114%) et de plateau (+148%), de la résistance expiratoire (+93%) et de la pression partielle artérielle de gaz carbonique PaCO2 (+25%) a été constatée, de même qu'une diminution significative (p<0.05) de la compliance respiratoire (-41 %) et de la pression partielle artérielle d'oxygène PaO2 (-49%). Ces modifications sont restées stables durant toute la période d'observation. Ce modèle expérimental animal de bronchoconstriction offre de nombreux avantages : la stabilité hémodynamique et le confort de l'animal sont améliorés et la réaction de stress est inhibée. Il permet de plus une distribution optimale de l'antigène respiratoire et finalement évite l'utilisation d'un pléthysmographe corporel. Abstract This study describes a simplified experimental model of early bronchoconstriction induced by aerosolization of Ascaris suum extract in isoflurane-anesthetized and mechanically ventilated sheep. Ten adult sheep were anesthetized, mechanically ventilated and then challenged with an aerosol of Ascaris suum extract during 25 minutes. All of them were challenged twice at eight weeks intervals. During the bronchoconstrictive challenges and the following sixty minutes, gas exchange was measured and respiratory mechanics parameters computed from a lung mechanics calculator. At the end of the challenge, a significant increase (p<0.05) was observed in peak (+114%) and plateau (+148%) pressures, expiratory resistance (+93%) and PaCO2 (+25%) along with a significant decrease (p<0.05) in respiratory compliance (-41 %) and PaO2 (-49%). These changes remained stable throughout the 60 minutes study period. This model offers several advantages: hemodynamic stability and animal welfare are improved and the stress response is blunted. It allows an optimal distribution of the antigen and finally avoids the need of a body plethysmograph.