88 resultados para Hazard Assessment


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Introduction : The redox properties of fine/ultrafine particles as well as nanoparticles (NP) are suggested to be important to explain their biological activity and could constitute a novel and promising metric for hazard evaluation. The acellular in vitro dithiothreitol (DTT) assay allows measuring this property. Objectives : (1) to evaluate sampling requirements for fine/ultrafine particle allowing measurement of their oxidative potential (2) to apply the methodology to occupational situations where particle from combustion sources are generated. Material and method : Sampling parameters (type of filters and loaded amount) and storage duration affecting the DTT measurements were evaluated. Based on these results, a methodological approach was defined and applied in two occupational situations where diesel and other combustion particles are present (toll station in a tunnel and mechanical yard for bus reparation). Results : Teflon filters loaded with diesel particles were found more suitable for the DTT assay, due to their better chemical inertness compared to quartz filters: after storage durations larger than 150 hours, an increased reactivity toward DTT was observed only with quartz filters. Reactivity was linearly correlated to the loaded mass until about 1000 μg/filter. Different redox reactivities were determined in both working places, with the mechanical yard presenting a higher DTT consumption rate. Discussion and conclusions : These results demonstrate the feasibility of this method to determine the oxidative potential of fine/ultrafine particles in occupational situations. We propose to include this approach for hazard assessment of work places with exposure to manufactured and other NP.

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The Cinque Torri group (Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy) is an articulated system of unstable carbonatic rock monoliths located in a very important tourism area and therefore characterized by a significant risk. The instability phenomena involved represent an example of lateral spreading developed over a larger deep seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) area. After the recent fall of a monolith of more than 10 000 m3, a scientific study was initiated to monitor the more unstable sectors and to characterize the past movements as a fundamental tool for predicting future movements and hazard assessment. To achieve greater insight on the ongoing lateral spreading process, a method for a quantitative analysis of rotational movements associated with the lateral spreading has been developed, applied and validated. The method is based on: i) detailed geometrical characterization of the area by means of laser scanner techniques; ii) recognition of the discontinuity sets and definition of a reference frame for each set, iii) correlation between the obtained reference frames related to a specific sector and a stable external reference frame, and iv) determination of the 3D rotations in terms of Euler angles to describe the present settlement of the Cinque Torri system with respect to the surrounding stable areas. In this way, significant information on the processes involved in the fragmentation and spreading of a former dolomitic plateau into different rock cliffs has been gained. The method is suitable to be applied to similar case studies.

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The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

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Rock slope instabilities are implicitly linked to the supply of sediment and debris recharging channels prone to debris flow. Hence, the incorporation of bedrock structure and terrain morphology can be relevant in the analysis of sediment budget and debris flow hazard assessment. Here, the mode of debris production of the Manival catchment (northern French Alps) is documented by the study of its morphostructural aspects extracted from high resolution DEM. Terrain implication in the process of debris supply is evaluated by: a) A systematic classification of the major morphological units based on the slope gradient that enables a spatial analysis of zones of debris production and deposition. b) A detailed structural analysis performed on DEM in order to identify potential unstable slopes. c) An analysis of the gullies orientation that informs in term of structural control of the sources zones. d) Localisation of high density joints sets that document about whether sources of continuous debris production are controlled by the structural setting of the catchment. These DEM-based indicators can be used as proxies for assessing the influences of the current topography and enable to quantify a degree of susceptibility to mass wasting and hillslope erosion activity. This present contribution suggests some directions for characterizing sediment flux dynamic in small alpine catchment.

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Summary Detection, analysis and monitoring of slope movements by high-resolution digital elevation modelsSlope movements, such as rockfalls, rockslides, shallow landslides or debris flows, are frequent in many mountainous areas. These natural hazards endanger the inhabitants and infrastructures making it necessary to assess the hazard and risk caused by these phenomena. This PhD thesis explores various approaches using digital elevation models (DEMs) - and particularly high-resolution DEMs created by aerial or terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) - that contribute to the assessment of slope movement hazard at regional and local scales.The regional detection of areas prone to rockfalls and large rockslides uses different morphologic criteria or geometric instability factors derived from DEMs, i.e. the steepness of the slope, the presence of discontinuities, which enable a sliding mechanism, and the denudation potential. The combination of these factors leads to a map of susceptibility to rockfall initiation that is in good agreement with field studies as shown with the example of the Little Mill Campground area (Utah, USA). Another case study in the Illgraben catchment in the Swiss Alps highlighted the link between areas with a high denudation potential and actual rockfall areas.Techniques for a detailed analysis and characterization of slope movements based on high-resolution DEMs have been developed for specific, localized sites, i.e. ancient slide scars, present active instabilities or potential slope instabilities. The analysis of the site's characteristics mainly focuses on rock slopes and includes structural analyses (orientation of discontinuities); estimation of spacing, persistence and roughness of discontinuities; failure mechanisms based on the structural setting; and volume calculations. For the volume estimation a new 3D approach was tested to reconstruct the topography before a landslide or to construct the basal failure surface of an active or potential instability. The rockslides at Åknes, Tafjord and Rundefjellet in western Norway were principally used as study sites to develop and test the different techniques.The monitoring of slope instabilities investigated in this PhD thesis is essentially based on multitemporal (or sequential) high-resolution DEMs, in particular sequential point clouds acquired by TLS. The changes in the topography due to slope movements can be detected and quantified by sequential TLS datasets, notably by shortest distance comparisons revealing the 3D slope movements over the entire region of interest. A detailed analysis of rock slope movements is based on the affine transformation between an initial and a final state of the rock mass and its decomposition into translational and rotational movements. Monitoring using TLS was very successful on the fast-moving Eiger rockslide in the Swiss Alps, but also on the active rockslides of Åknes and Nordnesfjellet (northern Norway). One of the main achievements on the Eiger and Aknes rockslides is to combine the site's morphology and structural setting with the measured slope movements to produce coherent instability models. Both case studies also highlighted a strong control of the structures in the rock mass on the sliding directions. TLS was also used to monitor slope movements in soils, such as landslides in sensitive clays in Québec (Canada), shallow landslides on river banks (Sorge River, Switzerland) and a debris flow channel (Illgraben).The PhD thesis underlines the broad uses of high-resolution DEMs and especially of TLS in the detection, analysis and monitoring of slope movements. Future studies should explore in more depth the different techniques and approaches developed and used in this PhD, improve them and better integrate the findings in current hazard assessment practices and in slope stability models.Résumé Détection, analyse et surveillance de mouvements de versant à l'aide de modèles numériques de terrain de haute résolutionDes mouvements de versant, tels que des chutes de blocs, glissements de terrain ou laves torrentielles, sont fréquents dans des régions montagneuses et mettent en danger les habitants et les infrastructures ce qui rend nécessaire d'évaluer le danger et le risque causé par ces phénomènes naturels. Ce travail de thèse explore diverses approches qui utilisent des modèles numériques de terrain (MNT) et surtout des MNT de haute résolution créés par scanner laser terrestre (SLT) ou aérien - et qui contribuent à l'évaluation du danger de mouvements de versant à l'échelle régionale et locale.La détection régionale de zones propices aux chutes de blocs ou aux éboulements utilise plusieurs critères morphologiques dérivés d'un MNT, tels que la pente, la présence de discontinuités qui permettent un mécanisme de glissement ou le potentiel de dénudation. La combinaison de ces facteurs d'instabilité mène vers une carte de susceptibilité aux chutes de blocs qui est en accord avec des travaux de terrain comme démontré avec l'exemple du Little Mill Campground (Utah, États-Unis). Un autre cas d'étude - l'Illgraben dans les Alpes valaisannes - a mis en évidence le lien entre les zones à fort potentiel de dénudation et les sources effectives de chutes de blocs et d'éboulements.Des techniques pour l'analyse et la caractérisation détaillée de mouvements de versant basées sur des MNT de haute résolution ont été développées pour des sites spécifiques et localisés, comme par exemple des cicatrices d'anciens éboulements et des instabilités actives ou potentielles. Cette analyse se focalise principalement sur des pentes rocheuses et comprend l'analyse structurale (orientation des discontinuités); l'estimation de l'espacement, la persistance et la rugosité des discontinuités; l'établissement des mécanismes de rupture; et le calcul de volumes. Pour cela une nouvelle approche a été testée en rétablissant la topographie antérieure au glissement ou en construisant la surface de rupture d'instabilités actuelles ou potentielles. Les glissements rocheux d'Åknes, Tafjord et Rundefjellet en Norvège ont été surtout utilisés comme cas d'étude pour développer et tester les diverses approches. La surveillance d'instabilités de versant effectuée dans cette thèse de doctorat est essentiellement basée sur des MNT de haute résolution multi-temporels (ou séquentiels), en particulier des nuages de points séquentiels acquis par SLT. Les changements topographiques dus aux mouvements de versant peuvent être détectés et quantifiés sur l'ensemble d'un glissement, notamment par comparaisons des distances les plus courtes entre deux nuages de points. L'analyse détaillée des mouvements est basée sur la transformation affine entre la position initiale et finale d'un bloc et sa décomposition en mouvements translationnels et rotationnels. La surveillance par SLT a démontré son potentiel avec l'effondrement d'un pan de l'Eiger dans les Alpes suisses, mais aussi aux glissements rocheux d'Aknes et Nordnesfjellet en Norvège. Une des principales avancées à l'Eiger et à Aknes est la création de modèles d'instabilité cohérents en combinant la morphologie et l'agencement structural des sites avec les mesures de déplacements. Ces deux cas d'étude ont aussi démontré le fort contrôle des structures existantes dans le massif rocheux sur les directions de glissement. Le SLT a également été utilisé pour surveiller des glissements dans des terrains meubles comme dans les argiles sensibles au Québec (Canada), sur les berges de la rivière Sorge en Suisse et dans le chenal à laves torrentielles de l'Illgraben.Cette thèse de doctorat souligne le vaste champ d'applications des MNT de haute résolution et particulièrement du SLT dans la détection, l'analyse et la surveillance des mouvements de versant. Des études futures devraient explorer plus en profondeur les différentes techniques et approches développées, les améliorer et mieux les intégrer dans des pratiques actuelles d'analyse de danger et surtout dans la modélisation de stabilité des versants.

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The aim of this article is to present an overview of salient issues of exposure, characterisation and hazard assessment of nanomaterials as they emerged from the consensus-building of experts undertaken within the four year European Commission coordination project NanoImpactNet. The approach adopted is to consolidate and condense the findings and problem-identification in such a way as to identify knowledge-gaps and generate a set of interim recommendations of use to industry, regulators, research bodies and funders. The categories of recommendation arising from the consensual view address: significant gaps in vital factual knowledge of exposure, characterisation and hazards; the development, dissemination and standardisation of appropriate laboratory protocols; address a wide range of technical issues in establishing an adequate risk assessment platform; the more efficient and coordinated gathering of basic data; greater inter-organisational cooperation; regulatory harmonization; the wider use of the life-cycle approaches; and the wider involvement of all stakeholders in the discussion and solution-finding efforts for nanosafety.

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This is the report of the first workshop on Incorporating In Vitro Alternative Methods for Developmental Neurotoxicity (DNT) Testing into International Hazard and Risk Assessment Strategies, held in Ispra, Italy, on 19-21 April 2005. The workshop was hosted by the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) and jointly organized by ECVAM, the European Chemical Industry Council, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Alternatives to Animal Testing. The primary aim of the workshop was to identify and catalog potential methods that could be used to assess how data from in vitro alternative methods could help to predict and identify DNT hazards. Working groups focused on two different aspects: a) details on the science available in the field of DNT, including discussions on the models available to capture the critical DNT mechanisms and processes, and b) policy and strategy aspects to assess the integration of alternative methods in a regulatory framework. This report summarizes these discussions and details the recommendations and priorities for future work.

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A computerized handheld procedure is presented in this paper. It is intended as a database complementary tool, to enhance prospective risk analysis in the field of occupational health. The Pendragon forms software (version 3.2) has been used to implement acquisition procedures on Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and to transfer data to a computer in an MS-Access format. The data acquisition strategy proposed relies on the risk assessment method practiced at the Institute of Occupational Health Sciences (IST). It involves the use of a systematic hazard list and semi-quantitative risk assessment scales. A set of 7 modular forms has been developed to cover the basic need of field audits. Despite the minor drawbacks observed, the results obtained so far show that handhelds are adequate to support field risk assessment and follow-up activities. Further improvements must still be made in order to increase the tool effectiveness and field adequacy.

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Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

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Background: The purpose of the work reported here is to test reliable molecular profiles using routinely processed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues from participants of the clinical trial BIG 1-98 with a median follow-up of 60 months. Methods: RNA from fresh frozen (FF) and FFPE tumor samples of 82 patients were used for quality control, and independent FFPE tissues of 342 postmenopausal participants of BIG 1-98 with ER-positive cancer were analyzed by measuring prospectively selected genes and computing scores representing the functions of the estrogen receptor (eight genes, ER_8), the progesterone receptor (five genes, PGR_5), Her2 (two genes, HER2_2), and proliferation (ten genes, PRO_10) by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) on TaqMan Low Density Arrays. Molecular scores were computed for each category and ER_8, PGR_5, HER2_2, and PRO_10 scores were combined into a RISK_25 score. Results: Pearson correlation coefficients between FF- and FFPE-derived scores were at least 0.94 and high concordance was observed between molecular scores and immunohistochemical data. The HER2_2, PGR_ 5, PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores were significant predictors of disease free-survival (DFS) in univariate Cox proportional hazard regression. PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores predicted DFS in patients with histological grade II breast cancer and in lymph node positive disease. The PRO_10 and PGR_ 5 scores were independent predictors of DFS in multivariate Cox regression models incorporating clinical risk indicators; PRO_10 outperformed Ki-67 labeling index in multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. Conclusions: Scores representing the endocrine responsiveness and proliferation status of breast cancers were developed from gene expression analyses based on RNA derived from FFPE tissues. The validation of the molecular scores with tumor samples of participants of the BIG 1-98 trial demonstrates that such scores can serve as independent prognostic factors to estimate disease free survival (DFS) in postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer.

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We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.

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Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.