A non-linear Bayesian approach for upscaling local-scale hydraulic conductivity measurements based on local- and regional-scale geophysical data

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the regional scale represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed an upscaling procedure based on a Bayesian sequential simulation approach. This method is then applied to the stochastic integration of low-resolution, regional-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities. Finally, the overall viability of this upscaling approach is tested and verified by performing and comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure does indeed allow for obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

Personality and personality disorders in urban and rural Africa: results from a field trial in Burkina Faso

When conducting research in different cultural settings, assessing measurement equivalence is of prime importance to determine if constructs and scores can be compared across groups. Structural equivalence implies that constructs have the same meaning across groups, metric equivalence implies that the metric of the scales remains stable across groups, and full scale or scalar equivalence implies that the origin of the scales is the same across groups. Several studies have observed that the structure underlying both normal personality and personality disorders (PDs) is stable across cultures. Most of this cross-cultural research was conducted in Western and Asian cultures. In Africa, the few studies were conducted with well-educated participants using French or English instruments. No research was conducted in Africa with less privileged or preliterate samples. The aim of this research was to study the structure and expression of normal and abnormal personality in an urban and a rural sample in Burkina Faso. The sample included 1,750 participants, with a sub-sample from the urban area of Ouagadougou (n = 1,249) and another sub-sample from a rural village, Soumiaga (n = 501). Most participants answered an interview consisting of a Mooré language adaptation of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory and of the International Personality Disorders Examination. Mooré is the language of the Mossi ethnic group, and the most frequently spoken local language in Burkina Faso. A sub-sample completed the same self-report instruments in French. Demographic variables only had a small impact on normal and abnormal personality traits mean levels. The structure underlying normal personality was unstable across regions and languages, illustrating that translating a complex psychological inventory into a native African language is a very difficult task. The structure underlying abnormal personality and the metric of PDs scales were stable across regions. As scalar equivalence was not reached, mean differences cannot be interpreted. Nevertheless, these differences could be due to an exaggerated expression of abnormal traits valued in the two cultural settings. Our results suggest that studies using a different methodology should be conducted to understand what is considered, in different cultures, as deviating from the expectations of the individual's culture, and as a significant impairment in self and interpersonal functioning, as defined by the DSM-5.

Micromeasurement of total and regional CO2 productions in the one-day-old chick embryo.

A conductometric micromethod combined with image analysis system has been developed allowing to determine the CO2 production within 'two-dimensional' tissues, i.e., flat and thin cell layers or epithelial sheets. The preparation was mounted into an airtight chamber separated in two compartments by a thin silicone membrane permeable to gases. The lower compartment contained the nutritive medium and the preparation. The upper compartment and a conductivity measuring capillary connected in series were perfused with a solution of Ba(OH)2. The CO2 produced by the tissue precipitated as BaCO3 and the resulting decrease of electrical conductivity was linearly related to the total CO2 production. In addition, the pattern of CO2 production was directly observable as the BaCO3 crystals formed upon the silicone membrane over the regions which produced CO2. The spatial distribution of the crystals was quantified by video image processing and the regional CO2 production evaluated with a spatial resolution of 100 microns. This new microtechnique was originally developed to study the CO2 production in the early chick blastoderm which is a disc 1-5 cells thick. At the stage of young neurula the CO2 production was found to be 235 +/- 37 nmol.h-1 (mean +/- SD; n = 10) per blastoderm and large variations of local CO2 production were detected from one region to another (from 0.6 to 6.5 nmol.h-1.mm-2). These results indicate a high metabolic and functional differentiation of cells within the blastoderm. The possible applications and improvements of such a microtechnique are discussed.

Sudden cardiac death among general population and sport related population in forensic experience.

PURPOSE: The goal of the study was to assess the causes and analyze the cases of sudden cardiac death (SCD) victims referred to the department of forensic medicine in Lausanne, with a particular focus on sports-related fatalities including also leisure sporting activities. To date, no such published assessment has been done nor for Switzerland nor for the central Europe. METHODS: This is a retrospective study based on autopsy records of SCD victims, from 10 to 50 years of age, performed at the University Centre of Legal Medicine in Lausanne from 1995 to 2010. The study population was divided into two groups: sport-related (SR) and not sport-related (NSR) SCDs. RESULTS: During the study period, 188 cases of SCD were recorded: 166 (88%) were NSR and 22 (12%) SR. The mean age of the 188 victims was 37.3 ± 10.1 years, with the majority of the cases being male (79%). A cause of death was established in 84%, and the pathology responsible for death varied according to the age of the victims. In the NSR group, the mean age was 38.2 ± 9.2 years and there was 82% of male. Coronary artery disease (CAD) was the main diagnosis in the victims aged 30-50 years. The majority of morphologically normal hearts were observed in the 15-29 year age range. There was no case in the 10-14 year age range. In the SR group, 91% of victims died during leisure sporting activities. In this group the mean age was 30.5 ± 13.5 years, with the majority being male (82%). The main cause of death was CAD, with 6 cases (27%) and a mean age of 40.8 ± 5.5 years. The youngest victim with CAD was 33 years old. A morphologically normal heart was observed in 5 cases (23%), with a mean age of 24.4 ± 14.9 years. The most frequently implicated sporting activities were hiking (26%) and swimming (17%). CONCLUSION: In this study, CAD was the most common cause of death in both groups. Although this pathology most often affects adults over 35 years of age, there were also some victims under 35 years of age in both groups. SCDs during sport are mostly related to leisure sporting activities, for which preventive measures are not yet usually established. This study highlights also the need to inform both athletes and non athletes of the cardiovascular risks during sport activities and the role of a forensic autopsy and registries involving forensic pathologists for SR SCD.

Essays on the Economics of Conflict and Migration

Les conflits civils sont des événements dramatiques qui poussent les individus hors de leurs pays d'origine. Mais si l'émigration était elle-même une force pacificatrice? Dans les deux premiers chapitres, je me suis intéressée à l'impact de l'émigration sur l'incidence des conflits civils dans les pays d'origine. Tout d'abord, je construis un modèle théorique d'équilibre général, dans lequel le niveau de conflit d'équilibre est déterminé par la ratio de combattants dans l'économie. Dans ce modèle, l'émigration décourage les conflits en réduisant les gains d'une rébellion, tout en augmentant le coût d'opportunité des combats. La principale prédiction du modèle est que le conflit diminue avec le niveau du salaire étranger net des coûts de migration. Dans le deuxième chapitre, je teste cette prédiction empiriquement. En utilisant une variable instrumentale, je démontre que l'émigration vers les pays développés diminue l'incidence de guerres civiles dans les pays d'origine. Ces résultats prouvent qu'en ouvrant leurs frontières, les pays d'accueil pourraient contribuer à sauver des vies, aussi bien celles des migrants que celles des habitants restés dans leur pays. De plus, les conflits civils tendent à détruire des sociétés en traumatisant les personnes touchées, augmentant ainsi le risque des conflits futurs. Afin de mieux comprendre ce cercle vicieux et de pouvoir y remédier, le troisième chapitre détermine si les enfants ayant vécu la guerre ont une tendance à être plus violent que des co-nationaux nés après la guerre. L'analyse se concentre sur les demandeurs d'asile en Suisse : Cette population est intéressante puisque l'allocation des demandeurs d'asile entre cantons est aléatoire, ce qui prévient le choix d'un canton avec un taux de criminalité plus élevé. Les résultats démontrent un effet de traumatisme causé par la guerre augmentant ainsi le risque de criminalité dans la vie adulte. Cependant, l'analyse de politiques publiques montre que la mise en place de politiques judicieuses permet d'éviter les conséquences de l'exposition à la guerre. En particulier, en offrant aux nouveaux arrivants l'accès au marché de travail ainsi que des perspectives à long-terme, la Suisse peut éliminer complètement l'effet du traumatisme sur la criminalité.