Vaccination against human papillomavirus in Switzerland: simulation of the impact on infection rates.

OBJECTIVES: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection of particular interest because of its high prevalence rate and strong causal association with cervical cancer. Two prophylactic vaccines have been developed and different countries have made or will soon make recommendations for the vaccination of girls. Even if there is a consensus to recommend a vaccination before the beginning of sexual activity, there are, however, large discrepancies between countries concerning the perceived usefulness of a catch-up procedure and of boosters. The main objective of this article is to simulate the impact on different vaccination policies upon the mid- and long-term HPV 16/18 age-specific infection rates. METHODS: We developed an epidemiological model based on the susceptible-infective-recovered approach using Swiss data. The mid- and long-term impact of different vaccination scenarios was then compared. RESULTS: The generalization of a catch-up procedure is always beneficial, whatever its extent. Moreover, pending on the length of the protection offered by the vaccine, boosters will also be very useful. CONCLUSIONS: To be really effective, a vaccination campaign against HPV infection should at least include a catch-up to early reach a drop in HPV 16/18 prevalence, and maybe boosters. Otherwise, the protection insured for women in their 20s could be lower than expected, resulting in higher risks to later develop cervical cancer.

Development and maintenance of the neuronal cytoskeleton in aggregated cell cultures of fetal rat telencephalon and influence of elevated K+ concentrations.

Serum-free aggregating cell cultures of fetal rat telencephalon were examined by biochemical and immunocytochemical methods for their development-dependent expression of several cytoskeletal proteins, including the heavy- and medium-sized neurofilament subunits (H-NF and M-NF, respectively); brain spectrin; synapsin I; beta-tubulin; and the microtubule-associated proteins (MAPs) 1, 2, and 5 and tau protein. It was found that with time in culture the levels of most of these cytoskeletal proteins increased greatly, with the exceptions of the particular beta-tubulin form studied, which remained unchanged, and MAP 5, which greatly decreased. Among the neurofilament proteins, expression of M-NF preceded that of H-NF, with the latter being detectable only after approximately 3 weeks in culture. Furthermore, MAP 2 and tau protein showed a development-dependent change in expression from the juvenile toward the adult form. The comparison of these developmental changes in cytoskeletal protein levels with those observed in rat brain tissue revealed that protein expression in aggregate cultures is nearly identical to that in vivo during maturation of the neuronal cytoskeleton. Aggregate cultures deprived of glial cells, i.e., neuron-enriched cultures prepared by treating early cultures with the antimitotic drug cytosine arabinoside, exhibited pronounced deficits in M-NF, H-NF, MAP 2, MAP 1, synapsin I, and brain spectrin, with increased levels of a 145-kDa brain spectrin breakdown product. These adverse effects of glial cell deprivation could be reversed by the maintenance of neuron-enriched cultures at elevated concentrations of KCl (30 mM). This chronic treatment had to be started at an early developmental stage to be effective, a finding suggesting that sustained depolarization by KCl is able to enhance the developmental expression and maturation of the neuronal cytoskeleton.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the first-line therapies for nicotine dependence.

BACKGROUND: Nicotine dependence is the major obstacle for smokers who want to quit. Guidelines have identified five effective first-line therapies, four nicotine replacement therapies (NRTs)--gum, patch, nasal spray and inhaler--and bupropion. Studying the extent to which these various treatments are cost-effective requires additional research. OBJECTIVES: To determine cost-effectiveness (CE) ratios of pharmacotherapies for nicotine dependence provided by general practitioners (GPs) during routine visits as an adjunct to cessation counselling. METHODS: We used a Markov model to generate two cohorts of one-pack-a-day smokers: (1) the reference cohort received only cessation counselling from a GP during routine office visits; (2) the second cohort received the same counselling plus an offer to use a pharmacological treatment to help them quit smoking. The effectiveness of adjunctive therapy was expressed in terms of the resultant differential in mortality rate between the two cohorts. Data on the effectiveness of therapies came from meta-analyses, and we used odds ratio for quitting as the measure of effectiveness. The costs of pharmacotherapies were based on the cost of the additional time spent by GPs offering, prescribing and following-up treatment, and on the retail prices of the therapies. We used the third-party-payer perspective. Results are expressed as the incremental cost per life-year saved. RESULTS: The cost per life-year saved for only counselling ranged from Euro 385 to Euro 622 for men and from Euro 468 to Euro 796 for women. The CE ratios for the five pharmacological treatments varied from Euro 1768 to Euro 6879 for men, and from Euro 2146 to Euro 8799 for women. Significant variations in CE ratios among the five treatments were primarily due to differences in retail prices. The most cost-effective treatments were bupropion and the patch, and, then, in descending order, the spray, the inhaler and, lastly, gum. Differences in CE between men and women across treatments were due to the shape of their respective mortality curve. The lowest CE ratio in men was for the 45- to 49-year-old group and for women in the 50- to 54-year-old group. Sensitivity analysis showed that changes in treatment efficacy produced effects only for less-well proven treatments (spray, inhaler, and bupropion) and revealed a strong influence of the discount rate and natural quit rate on the CE of pharmacological treatments. CONCLUSION: The CE of first-line treatments for nicotine dependence varied widely with age and sex and was sensitive to the assumption for the natural quit rate. Bupropion and the nicotine patch were the two most cost-effective treatments.

A hierarchical approach to model parameter optimization for developmental systems.

In the context of Systems Biology, computer simulations of gene regulatory networks provide a powerful tool to validate hypotheses and to explore possible system behaviors. Nevertheless, modeling a system poses some challenges of its own: especially the step of model calibration is often difficult due to insufficient data. For example when considering developmental systems, mostly qualitative data describing the developmental trajectory is available while common calibration techniques rely on high-resolution quantitative data. Focusing on the calibration of differential equation models for developmental systems, this study investigates different approaches to utilize the available data to overcome these difficulties. More specifically, the fact that developmental processes are hierarchically organized is exploited to increase convergence rates of the calibration process as well as to save computation time. Using a gene regulatory network model for stem cell homeostasis in Arabidopsis thaliana the performance of the different investigated approaches is evaluated, documenting considerable gains provided by the proposed hierarchical approach.

Development of the first disease activity index for eosinophilic esophagitis: update on the EEsAI in 2012

Background and Aims: The international E EsAI s tudy g roup is currently d eveloping the first activity index ( EEsAI) specific for E osinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). G oal: T o develop, e valuate and validate the EEsAI. Methods: T he development c omprises three p hases: 1. Selection of c andidate items ( completed); 2. Evaluation of t he activity index i n a first patient cohort (in progress, p atient recruitment completed); and 3. Validation in a s econd EoE patient cohort. F ocus group interviews with patients were used in p hase 1 to g enerate patient r eported outcomes (PRO) according to g uidelines o f regulatory authorities (FDA a nd EMA), whereas the section of biologic items was developed by Delphi rounds o f international E oE experts from E urope and North America. Results: T he EEsAI has a modular c omposition to a ssess the following components o f EoE activity: p atient r eported outcomes, e ndoscopic activity, histologic activity, laboratory activity, a nd quality of l ife (QoL). Definitions for a ll aspects o f endoscopic and histologic appearance were e stablished by consensus r ounds a mong E oE experts. S ymptom a ssessment tools were c reated that t ake into account d ifferent food consistencies as w ell as f ood avoidance and specific processing strategies. The EEsAI i s currently e valuated in a cohort of a dult EoE patients since M arch 2 011 (patient recruitment completed). Conclusions: The EEsAI standardizes outcome assessment in EoE t rials. T he collaboration with i nternational E oE e xperts a s well as f ollowing o f the guidelines f rom regulatory authorities will lead to its wide applicability.

Adiponectin and C-reactive protein are positively associated with microalbuminuria in an adult Caucasian population

Objective: Microalbuminuria (MAU) is a marker of early kidney injury and cardiovascular risk. We assessed the association of MAU with plasma adiponectin, leptin, and hsCRP as inflammatory marker, accounting for hypertension, diabetes and obesity. Design and Methods: Population based, cross-sectional study in Caucasian subjects aged 35 to 75 years in Lausanne, Switzerland. MAU, measured by quantitative immunonephelometry on spot morning urine, was used either as a continuous (MAU) or dichotomized variable (MA defined as MAU > 2.5 and >3.5 mg/mmol creatinine in men and women, respectively). Results: The 2955 women (age 53.3_10.7, mean_SD years) had mean body mass index (BMI) 24.9_4.5 kg/m. The 2479 men (age 53.1_10.8 years) hadmean BMI 27.0_3.9 kg/m2.Median hsCRP was 1.3 and 1.3 mg/L, median adiponectin 6.2 and 10.6mg/mL in men and women, respectively. MA prevalence was 4.9% in women and 9.8% in men. In multivariate regression analysis adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, eGFR, BMI, percent fat mass, insulin and smoking), logtransformed MAU was positively associated with hsCRP (P<0.001) and adiponectin (P¼0.002), but not with leptin. The association of adiponectin with MAU was stronger in subjects with low hsCRP, and vice versa (P interaction<0.001). Conclusion: Adiponectin and hsCRP are significant positive determinants of MAU, independently of diabetes, hypertension and fat mass. A negative interaction between hsCRP and adiponectin was found for their effect on MAU. Whether hyperadiponectinemia represents an adequate protective response to vascular stress or has negative causal impact on the development of MAU should be assessed in further studies.

Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based CVD risk analysis.

Commentaire de: Gaziano TA, Young CR, Fitzmaurice G, Atwood S, Gaziano JM. Laboratory-based versus non-laboratory-based method for assessment of cardiovascular disease risk: the NHANES I Follow-up Study cohort. Lancet. 2008;371(9616):923-31. PMID: 18342687

Test of four colon cancer risk-scores in formalin fixed paraffin embedded microarray gene expression data.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction for resected primary colon cancer is based on the T-stage Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. We investigated if four well-documented gene expression risk scores can improve patient stratification. METHODS: Microarray-based versions of risk-scores were applied to a large independent cohort of 688 stage II/III tumors from the PETACC-3 trial. Prognostic value for relapse-free survival (RFS), survival after relapse (SAR), and overall survival (OS) was assessed by regression analysis. To assess improvement over a reference, prognostic model was assessed with the area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. All statistical tests were two-sided, except the AUC increase. RESULTS: All four risk scores (RSs) showed a statistically significant association (single-test, P < .0167) with OS or RFS in univariate models, but with HRs below 1.38 per interquartile range. Three scores were predictors of shorter RFS, one of shorter SAR. Each RS could only marginally improve an RFS or OS model with the known factors T-stage, N-stage, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status (AUC gains < 0.025 units). The pairwise interscore discordance was never high (maximal Spearman correlation = 0.563) A combined score showed a trend to higher prognostic value and higher AUC increase for OS (HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.44 to 2.10, P < .001, AUC from 0.6918 to 0.7321) and RFS (HR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.33 to 1.84, P < .001, AUC from 0.6723 to 0.6945) than any single score. CONCLUSIONS: The four tested gene expression-based risk scores provide prognostic information but contribute only marginally to improving models based on established risk factors. A combination of the risk scores might provide more robust information. Predictors of RFS and SAR might need to be different.

Habitat-quality effects on metapopulation dynamics in greater white-toothed shrews, Crocidura russula.

The effects of patch size and isolation on metapopulation dynamics have received wide empirical support and theoretical formalization. By contrast, the effects of patch quality seem largely underinvestigated, partly due to technical difficulties in properly assessing quality. Here we combine habitat-quality modeling with four years of demographic monitoring in a metapopulation of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to investigate the role of patch quality on metapopulation processes. Together, local patch quality and connectivity significantly enhanced local population sizes and occupancy rates (R2 = 14% and 19%, respectively). Accounting for the quality of patches connected to the focal one and acting as potential sources improved slightly the model explanatory power for local population sizes, pointing to significant source-sink dynamics. Local habitat quality, in interaction with connectivity, also increased colonization rate (R2 = 28%), suggesting the ability of immigrants to target high-quality patches. Overall, patterns were best explained when assuming a mean dispersal distance of 800 m, a realistic value for the species under study. Our results thus provide evidence that patch quality, in interaction with connectivity, may affect major demographic processes.

Female-biased dispersal in the monogamous mammal Crocidura russula: evidence from field data and microsatellite patterns.

We investigated dispersal patterns in the monogamous Crocidura russula, based both on direct field observations (mark-recapture data) and on genetic analyses (microsatellite loci). Natal dispersal was found to be low. Most juveniles settled within their natal territory or one immediately adjacent. Migration rate was estimated to two individuals per year and per population. The correlation between genetic and geographical distances over a 16 km transect implies that migration occurs over short ranges. Natal dispersal was restricted to first-litter juveniles weaned in early May; this result suggests a direct dependence of dispersal on reproductive opportunities. Natal dispersal was highly female biased, a pattern unusual among mammals. Its association with monogamy provides support for the resource-competition model of dispersal. Our results demonstrate that a state-biased dispersal can be directly inferred from microsatellite genotype distributions, which opens new perspectives for empirical studies in this area.

Venous cannula performance assessment in a realistic caval tree model.

OBJECTIVES: A new caval tree system was designed for realistic in vitro simulation. The objective of our study was to assess cannula performance for virtually wall-less versus standard percutaneous thin-walled venous cannulas in a setting of venous collapse in case of negative pressure. METHODS: For a collapsible caval model, a very flexible plastic material was selected, and a model with nine afferent veins was designed according to the anatomy of the vena cava. A flow bench was built including a lower reservoir holding the caval tree, built by taking into account the main afferent vessels and their flow provided by a reservoir 6 cm above. A cannula was inserted in this caval tree and connected to a centrifugal pump that, in turn, was connected to a reservoir positioned 83 cm above the second lower reservoir (after-load = 60 mmHg). Using the same pre-load, the simulated venous drainage for cardiopulmonary bypass was realized using a 24 F wall-less cannula (Smartcanula) and 25 F percutaneous cannula (Biomedicus), and stepwise increased augmentation (1500 RPM, 2000 and 2500 RPM) of venous drainage. RESULTS: For the thin wall and the wall-less cannulas, 36 pairs of flow and pressure measurements were realized for three different RPM values. The mean Q-values at 1500, 2000 and 2500 RPM were: 3.98 ± 0.01, 6.27 ± 0.02 and 9.81 ± 0.02 l/min for the wall-less cannula (P <0.0001), versus 2.74 ± 0.02, 3.06 ± 0.05, 6.78 ± 0.02 l/min for the thin-wall cannula (P <0.0001). The corresponding inlet pressure values were: -8.88 ± 0.01, -23.69 ± 0.81 and -70.22 ± 0.18 mmHg for the wall-less cannula (P <0.0001), versus -36.69 ± 1.88, -80.85 ± 1.71 and -101.83 ± 0.45 mmHg for the thin-wall cannula (P <0.0001). The thin-wall cannula showed mean Q-values 37% less and mean P values 26% more when compared with the wall-less cannula (P <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Our in vitro water test was able to mimic a negative pressure situation, where the wall-less cannula design performs better compared with the traditional thin-wall cannula.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of arsenic in the mouse

A remarkable feature of the carcinogenicity of inorganic arsenic is that while human exposures to high concentrations of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are associated with increases in skin, lung, and bladder cancer, inorganic arsenic has not typically caused tumors in standard laboratory animal test protocols. Inorganic arsenic administered for periods of up to 2 yr to various strains of laboratory mice, including the Swiss CD-1, Swiss CR:NIH(S), C57Bl/6p53(+/-), and C57Bl/6p53(+/+), has not resulted in significant increases in tumor incidence. However, Ng et al. (1999) have reported a 40% tumor incidence in C57Bl/6J mice exposed to arsenic in their drinking water throughout their lifetime, with no tumors reported in controls. In order to investigate the potential role of tissue dosimetry in differential susceptibility to arsenic carcinogenicity, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for inorganic arsenic in the rat, hamster, monkey, and human (Mann et al., 1996a, 1996b) was extended to describe the kinetics in the mouse. The PBPK model was parameterized in the mouse using published data from acute exposures of B6C3F1 mice to arsenate, arsenite, monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA) and validated using data from acute exposures of C57Black mice. Predictions of the acute model were then compared with data from chronic exposures. There was no evidence of changes in the apparent volume of distribution or in the tissue-plasma concentration ratios between acute and chronic exposure that might support the possibility of inducible arsenite efflux. The PBPK model was also used to project tissue dosimetry in the C57Bl/6J study, in comparison with tissue levels in studies having shorter duration but higher arsenic treatment concentrations. The model evaluation indicates that pharmacokinetic factors do not provide an explanation for the difference in outcomes across the various mouse bioassays. Other possible explanations may relate to strain-specific differences, or to the different durations of dosing in each of the mouse studies, given the evidence that inorganic arsenic is likely to be active in the later stages of the carcinogenic process. [Authors]

How useful is satellite positioning system (GPS) to track gait parameters? A review.

Over the last century, numerous techniques have been developed to analyze the movement of humans while walking and running. The combined use of kinematics and kinetics methods, mainly based on high speed video analysis and forceplate, have permitted a comprehensive description of locomotion process in terms of energetics and biomechanics. While the different phases of a single gait cycle are well understood, there is an increasing interest to know how the neuro-motor system controls gait form stride to stride. Indeed, it was observed that neurodegenerative diseases and aging could impact gait stability and gait parameters steadiness. From both clinical and fundamental research perspectives, there is therefore a need to develop techniques to accurately track gait parameters stride-by-stride over a long period with minimal constraints to patients. In this context, high accuracy satellite positioning can provide an alternative tool to monitor outdoor walking. Indeed, the high-end GPS receivers provide centimeter accuracy positioning with 5-20 Hz sampling rate: this allows the stride-by-stride assessment of a number of basic gait parameters--such as walking speed, step length and step frequency--that can be tracked over several thousand consecutive strides in free-living conditions. Furthermore, long-range correlations and fractal-like pattern was observed in those time series. As compared to other classical methods, GPS seems a promising technology in the field of gait variability analysis. However, relative high complexity and expensiveness--combined with a usability which requires further improvement--remain obstacles to the full development of the GPS technology in human applications.

Effect of tibial tray inclination on the femoro-tibial contact pattern of a mobile total knee arthroplasty

Introduction: The posterior inclination of the tibial component is an important factor that can affect the success of total knee arthroplasty. It can reduce the posterior impingement and thus increase the range of flexion, but it may also induce instability in flexion, anterior impingement between the polyethylene of postero-stabilizing knee prosthesis, and anterior conflict with the cortical bone and the stem. Although the problem is identified, there is still a debate on the ideal inclination angle and the surgical technique to avoid an excessive posterior inclination. The aim of this study was to predict the effect of a posterior inclination of the tibial component on the contact pattern on the tibial insert, using a numerical musculoskeletal model of the knee joint. Methods: A 3D finite element model of the knee joint was developed to simulate an active and loaded squat movement after total knee arthroplasty. Flexion was actively controlled by the quadriceps muscle and muscle activations were estimated from EMG data and were synchronized by a feedback algorithm. Two inclinations of the tibial tray were considered: a posterior inclination of 0° or 10°. During the entire range of flexion, the following quantities were calculated: the tibiofemoral and patello-femoral contact force, and the contact pattern on polyethylene insert. The antero-posterior displacement of the contact pattern was also measured. Abaqus 6.7 was used for all analyses. Results: The tibio-femoral and patello-femoral contact forces increased during flexion and reached respectively 4 and 7 BW (bodyweight) at 90° of flexion. They were slightly affected by the inclination of the tibial tray. Without posterior inclination, the contact pattern on the tibial insert remained centered. The contact pressure was lower than 5 MPa below 60° of flexion, but exceeded 20 MPa at 90° of flexion. The posterior inclination displaced the contact point posteriorly by 2 to 4 mm. Conclusion: The inclination of the tibial tray displaced the contactpattern towards the posterior border of the tibial insert. However, even for 10° of inclination, the contact center remained far from the posterior border (12 mm). There was no instability predicted for this movement.

Estimating sex-specific dispersal rates with autosomal markers in hierarchically structured populations.

A recent study suggests that sex-specific dispersal rates can be quantitatively estimated on the basis of sex- and state-specific (pre- vs. postdispersal) F-statistics. In the present paper, we extend this approach to account for the hierarchical structure of natural populations, and we validate it through individual-based simulations. The model is applied to an empirical data set consisting of 536 individuals (males, females, and predispersal juveniles) of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula), sampled according to a hierarchical design and typed for seven autosomal microsatellite loci. From this dataset, dispersal is significantly female biased at the local scale (breeding-group level), but not at the larger scale (among local populations). We argue that selective pressures on dispersal are likely to depend on the spatial scale considered, and that short-distance dispersal should mainly respond to kin interactions (inbreeding or kin competition avoidance), which exert differential pressure on males and females.