Global alcohol exposure estimates by country, territory and region for 2005--a contribution to the Comparative Risk Assessment for the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.

AIMS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of life-time abstainers, former drinkers and current drinkers, adult per-capita consumption of alcohol and pattern of drinking scores, by country and Global Burden of Disease region for 2005, and to forecast these indicators for 2010. DESIGN: Statistical modelling based on survey data and routine statistics. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 241 countries and territories. MEASUREMENTS: Per-capita consumption data were obtained with the help of the World Health Organization's Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Drinking status data were obtained from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study, the STEPwise approach to Surveillance study, the World Health Survey/Multi-Country Study and other surveys. Consumption and drinking status data were triangulated to estimate alcohol consumption across multiple categories. FINDINGS: In 2005 adult per-capita annual consumption of alcohol was 6.1 litres, with 1.7 litres stemming from unrecorded consumption; 17.1 litres of alcohol were consumed per drinker, 45.8% of all adults were life-time abstainers, 13.6% were former drinkers and 40.6% were current drinkers. Life-time abstention was most prevalent in North Africa/Middle East and South Asia. Eastern Europe and Southern sub-Saharan Africa had the most detrimental pattern of drinking scores, while drinkers in Europe (Eastern and Central) and sub-Saharan Africa (Southern and West) consumed the most alcohol. CONCLUSIONS: Just over 40% of the world's adult population consumes alcohol and the average consumption per drinker is 17.1 litres per year. However, the prevalence of abstention, level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking vary widely across regions of the world.

Analysis of past and future dam formation and failure in the Santa Cruz River (San Juan province, Argentina)

Around 11.5 * 106 m3 of rock detached from the eastern slope of the Santa Cruz valley (San Juan province, Argentina) in the first fortnight of January 2005. The rockslide?debris avalanche blocked the course, resulting in the development of a lake with maximum length of around 3.5 km. The increase in the inflow rate from 47,000?74,000 m3/d between April and October to 304,000 m3/d between late October and the first fortnight of November, accelerated the growing rate of the lake. On 12 November 2005 the dam failed, releasing 24.6 * 106 m3 of water. The resulting outburst flood caused damages mainly on infrastructure, and affected the facilities of a hydropower dam which was under construction 250 km downstream from the source area. In this work we describe causes and consequences of the natural dam formation and failure, and we dynamically model the 2005 rockslide?debris avalanche with DAN3D. Additionally, as a volume ~ 24 * 106 m3of rocks still remain unstable in the slope, we use the results of the back analysis to forecast the formation of a future natural dam. We analyzed two potential scenarios: a partial slope failure of 6.5 * 106 m3 and a worst case where all the unstable volume remaining in the slope fails. The spreading of those potential events shows that a new blockage of the Santa Cruz River is likely to occur. According to their modeled morphometry and the contributing watershed upstream the blockage area, as the one of 2005, the dams would also be unstable. This study shows the importance of back and forward analysis that can be carried out to obtain critical information for land use planning, hazards mitigation, and emergency management.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

The role of population origin and microenvironment in seedling emergence and early survival in Mediterranean maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton).

Understanding tree recruitment is needed to forecast future forest distribution. Many studies have reported the relevant ecological factors that affect recruitment success in trees, but the potential for genetic-based differences in recruitment has often been neglected. In this study, we established a semi-natural reciprocal sowing experiment to test for local adaptation and microenvironment effects (evaluated here by canopy cover) in the emergence and early survival of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an emblematic Mediterranean forest tree. A novel application of molecular markers was also developed to test for family selection and, thus, for potential genetic change over generations. Overall, we did not find evidence to support local adaptation at the recruitment stage in our semi-natural experiment. Moreover, only weak family selection (if any) was found, suggesting that in stressful environments with low survival, stochastic processes and among-year climate variability may drive recruitment. Nevertheless, our study revealed that, at early stages of recruitment, microenvironments may favor the population with the best adapted life strategy, irrespectively of its (local or non-local) origin. We also found that emergence time is a key factor for seedling survival in stressful Mediterranean environments. Our study highlights the complexity of the factors influencing the early stages of establishment of maritime pine and provides insights into possible management actions aimed at environmental change impact mitigation. In particular, we found that the high stochasticity of the recruitment process in stressful environments and the differences in population-specific adaptive strategies may difficult assisted migration schemes.

Transition to parenthood: The role of social interaction and endogenous networks

Empirical studies indicate that the transition to parenthood is influenced by an individual's peer group. To study the mechanisms creating interdepen- dencies across individuals' transition to parenthood and its timing we apply an agent-based simulation model. We build a one-sex model and provide agents with three different characteristics regarding age, intended education and parity. Agents endogenously form their network based on social closeness. Network members then may influence the agents' transition to higher parity levels. Our numerical simulations indicate that accounting for social inter- actions can explain the shift of first-birth probabilities in Austria over the period 1984 to 2004. Moreover, we apply our model to forecast age-specific fertility rates up to 2016.

Donor site morbidity of the posterior conchal region.

BACKGROUND: The perichondral cutaneous graft (PCCG) from the posterior conchal region is an elegant solution for the coverage of facial defects with particular stability requirements. The donor defect can easily be covered with a transposition flap from the postauricular region. Although this region is a common donor site for skin grafts and has an important supporting function for glasses or hearing aids, little is known about long-term morbidity after graft harvest. OBJECTIVE: To assess the morbidity of the posterior concha and the postauricular region in terms of pain, scar formation, and patient satisfaction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study of 16 patients who had a PCCG harvested from the posterior concha. RESULTS: Two patients presented with a postoperative wound dehiscence on the postauricular region and one with a keloid scar on the posterior concha. One case of transitory hyperesthesia and pain when sleeping on the operated site was observed. None had complaints related to wearing glasses or hearing aids. CONCLUSION: Donor site morbidity of the postauricular and posterior conchal region is minimal and associated with high patient satisfaction, excellent aesthetic results, and emotional detachment from the hidden donor site.

Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Benefits of endoscopic vein harvesting.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate and compare the benefits of endoscopic saphenous vein harvesting (EVH) with the traditional incision technique (TIT) for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in respect to the technical procedure and clinical outcome. In a prospective nonrandomized, case-matched study the greater saphenous vein was harvested for CABG in 22 patients using the endoscopic technique and in 18 patients with the traditional method. Comparisons were made for the operating time, length of incision and vein harvested, graft quality, postoperative complications, and pain assessment. Patient demographics were well matched. EVH required smaller incisions than did the TIT (10.5 +/- 6.6 vs. 31.2 +/- 7.8 cm, respectively; p < 0.0001). Harvest time and vein quality were comparable in the two groups. Total vein operating time was shorter following the endoscopic technique (60 +/- 24 vs. 100 +/- 35 minutes, respectively; p < 0.0001). EVH had fewer complications (NS), and postoperative pain was significantly less (p = 0.0034). The major advantages of endoscopic vein harvesting are a significant reduction of postoperative pain and strikingly better cosmetic results. Wound complications seem to be less frequent.

A detailed urinary excretion time course study of captan and folpet biomarkers in workers for the estimation of dose, main route-of-entry and most appropriate sampling and analysis strategies

Captan and folpet are two fungicides largely used in agriculture, but biomonitoring data are mostly limited to measurements of captan metabolite concentrations in spot urine samples of workers, which complicate interpretation of results in terms of internal dose estimation, daily variations according to tasks performed, and most plausible routes of exposure. This study aimed at performing repeated biological measurements of exposure to captan and folpet in field workers (i) to better assess internal dose along with main routes-of-entry according to tasks and (ii) to establish most appropriate sampling and analysis strategies. The detailed urinary excretion time courses of specific and non-specific biomarkers of exposure to captan and folpet were established in tree farmers (n = 2) and grape growers (n = 3) over a typical workweek (seven consecutive days), including spraying and harvest activities. The impact of the expression of urinary measurements [excretion rate values adjusted or not for creatinine or cumulative amounts over given time periods (8, 12, and 24 h)] was evaluated. Absorbed doses and main routes-of-entry were then estimated from the 24-h cumulative urinary amounts through the use of a kinetic model. The time courses showed that exposure levels were higher during spraying than harvest activities. Model simulations also suggest a limited absorption in the studied workers and an exposure mostly through the dermal route. It further pointed out the advantage of expressing biomarker values in terms of body weight-adjusted amounts in repeated 24-h urine collections as compared to concentrations or excretion rates in spot samples, without the necessity for creatinine corrections.

Randomized Trial of prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor during rapid COJEC induction in pediatric patients with high-risk neuroblastoma: the European HR-NBL1/SIOPEN study.

Purpose To reduce the incidence of febrile neutropenia during rapid COJEC (cisplatin, vincristine, carboplatin, etoposide, and cyclophosphamide given in a rapid delivery schedule) induction. In the High-Risk Neuroblastoma-1 (HR-NBL1) trial, the International Society of Paediatric Oncology European Neuroblastoma Group (SIOPEN) randomly assigned patients to primary prophylactic (PP) versus symptom-triggered granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (GCSF; filgrastim). Patients and Methods From May 2002 to November 2005, 239 patients in 16 countries were randomly assigned to receive or not receive PPGCSF. There were 144 boys with a median age of 3.1 years (range, 1 to 17 years) of whom 217 had International Neuroblastoma Staging System (INSS) stage 4 and 22 had stage 2 or 3 MYCN-amplified disease. The prophylactic arm received a single daily dose of 5 μg/kg GCSF, starting after each of the eight COJEC chemotherapy cycles and stopping 24 hours before the next cycle. Chemotherapy was administered every 10 days regardless of hematologic recovery, provided that infection was controlled. Results The PPGCSF arm had significantly fewer febrile neutropenic episodes (P = .002), days with fever (P = .004), hospital days (P = .017), and antibiotic days (P = .001). Reported Common Toxicity Criteria (CTC) graded toxicity was also significantly reduced: infections per cycle (P = .002), fever (P < .001), severe leucopenia (P < .001), neutropenia (P < .001), mucositis (P = .002), nausea/vomiting (P = .045), and constipation (P = .008). Severe weight loss was reduced significantly by 50% (P = .013). Protocol compliance with the rapid induction schedule was also significantly better in the PPGCSF arm shown by shorter time to completion (P = .005). PPGCSF did not adversely affect response rates or success of peripheral-blood stem-cell harvest. Following these results, PPG-GSF was advised for all patients on rapid COJEC induction.

Predicting current and future spatial community patterns of plant functional traits

Community-level patterns of functional traits relate to community assembly and ecosystem functioning. By modelling the changes of different indices describing such patterns - trait means, extremes and diversity in communities - as a function of abiotic gradients, we could understand their drivers and build projections of the impact of global change on the functional components of biodiversity. We used five plant functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen content and seed mass) and non-woody vegetation plots to model several indices depicting community-level patterns of functional traits from a set of abiotic environmental variables (topographic, climatic and edaphic) over contrasting environmental conditions in a mountainous landscape. We performed a variation partitioning analysis to assess the relative importance of these variables for predicting patterns of functional traits in communities, and projected the best models under several climate change scenarios to examine future potential changes in vegetation functional properties. Not all indices of trait patterns within communities could be modelled with the same level of accuracy: the models for mean and extreme values of functional traits provided substantially better predictive accuracy than the models calibrated for diversity indices. Topographic and climatic factors were more important predictors of functional trait patterns within communities than edaphic predictors. Overall, model projections forecast an increase in mean vegetation height and in mean specific leaf area following climate warming. This trend was important at mid elevation particularly between 1000 and 2000 m asl. With this study we showed that topographic, climatic and edaphic variables can successfully model descriptors of community-level patterns of plant functional traits such as mean and extreme trait values. However, which factors determine the diversity of functional traits in plant communities remains unclear and requires more investigations.

Characterization of rapeseed (Brassica napus) oils by bulk C, O, H, and fatty acid C stable isotope analyses

Rapeseed (Brassica napus) oils differing in cultivar, sites of growth, and harvest year were characterized by fatty acid concentrations and carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen stable isotope analyses of bulk oils (delta(13)C(bulk), delta(2)H(bulk), delta(18)O(bulk) values) and individual fatty acids (delta(13)C(FA)). The delta(13)C(bulk), delta(2)H(bulk), and delta(18)O(bulk) values were determined by continuous flow combustion and high-temperature conversion elemental analyzer isotope ratio mass spectrometry (EA/IRMS, TC-EA/IRMS). The delta(13)C(FA) values were determined using gas chromatography-combustion isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS). For comparison, other C(3) vegetable oils rich in linolenic acid (flax and false flax oils) and rich in linoleic acid (poppy, sunflower, and safflower oils) were submitted to the same chemical and isotopic analyses. The bulk and molecular delta(13)C values were typical for C(3) plants. The delta(13)C value of palmitic acid (delta(13)C(16:0)) and n-3 alpha-linolenic acid (delta(13)C(18:3n-3)) differed (p < 0.001) between rape, flax, and poppy oils. Also within species, significant differences of delta(13)C(FA) were observed (p < 0.01). The hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions of rape oil differed between cultivars (p < 0.05). Major differences in the individual delta(13)C(FA) values were found. A plant-specific carbon isotope fractionation occurs during the biosynthesis of the fatty acids and particularly during desaturation of C(18) acids in rape and flax. Bulk oil and specific fatty acid stable isotope analysis might be useful in tracing dietary lipids differing in their origin.

Phenotypic and functional analysis of human fetal liver hematopoietic stem cells in culture.

Steady-state hematopoiesis and hematopoietic transplantation rely on the unique potential of stem cells to undergo both self-renewal and multilineage differentiation. Fetal liver (FL) represents a promising alternative source of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs), but limited by the total cell number obtained in a typical harvest. We reported that human FL nonobese diabetic/severe combined immunodeficient (NOD/SCID) repopulating cells (SRCs) could be expanded under simple stroma-free culture conditions. Here, we sought to further characterize FL HSC/SRCs phenotypically and functionally before and following culture. Unexpanded or cultured FL cell suspensions were separated into various subpopulations. These were tested for long-term culture potential and for in vivo repopulating function following transplantation into NOD/SCID mice. We found that upon culture of human FL cells, a tight association between classical stem cell phenotypes, such as CD34(+) /CD38(-) and/or side population, and NOD/SCID repopulating function was lost, as observed with other sources. Although SRC activity before and following culture consistently correlated with the presence of a CD34(+) cell population, we provide evidence that, contrary to umbilical cord blood and adult sources, stem cells present in both CD34(+) and CD34(-) FL populations can sustain long-term hematopoietic cultures. Furthermore, upon additional culture, CD34-depleted cell suspensions, devoid of SRCs, regenerated a population of CD34(+) cells possessing SRC function. Our studies suggest that compared to neonatal and adult sources, the phenotypical characteristics of putative human FL HSCs may be less strictly defined, and reinforce the accumulated evidence that human FL represents a unique, valuable alternative and highly proliferative source of HSCs for clinical applications.

Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

Live trapping design for the harvest mouse (Micromys minutus) in its summer habitat

documented accurately since 1960. Most records are based on nest findings and there have been few direct observations or captures, mainly because live trapping of this species is not simple. Therefore, an efficient trapping technique is needed for population studies and to facilitate the management of its habitat. By combining the methods used to capture very small (Suncus etruscus) and climbing (Muscardinus avellanarius) mammals, we developed a design using Longworth traps with mouse excluders set on suspended platforms. This allowed us to trap more harvest mice in four field sessions of 60 trap-nights than have ever been caught previously since its discovery in Switzerland.