A control flow prototype for a dose recommending device for chronic myeloid leukemia patients

In this paper we present a prototype of a control flow for an a posteriori drug dose adaptation for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) patients. The control flow is modeled using Timed Automata extended with Tasks (TAT) model. The feedback loop of the control flow includes the decision-making process for drug dose adaptation. This is based on the outputs of the body response model represented by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for drug concentration prediction. The decision is further checked for conformity with the dose level rules of a medical guideline. We also have developed an automatic code synthesizer for the icycom platform as an extension of the TIMES tool.

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Three-dimensional slope stability analysis of South Peak, Crowsnest Pass, Alberta, Canada

South Peak is a 7-Mm3 potentially unstable rock mass located adjacent to the 1903 Frank Slide on Turtle Mountain, Alberta. This paper presents three-dimensional numerical rock slope stability models and compares them with a previous conceptual slope instability model based on discontinuity surfaces identified using an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model (DEM). Rock mass conditions at South Peak are described using the Geological Strength Index and point load tests, whilst the mean discontinuity set orientations and characteristics are based on approximately 500 field measurements. A kinematic analysis was first conducted to evaluate probable simple discontinuity-controlled failure modes. The potential for wedge failure was further assessed by considering the orientation of wedge intersections over the airborne LiDAR DEM and through a limit equilibrium combination analysis. Block theory was used to evaluate the finiteness and removability of blocks in the rock mass. Finally, the complex interaction between discontinuity sets and the topography within South Peak was investigated through three-dimensional distinct element models using the code 3DEC. The influence of individual discontinuity sets, scale effects, friction angle and the persistence along the discontinuity surfaces on the slope stability conditions were all investigated using this code.

Gains from switching and evolutionary stability in multi-player matrix games.

In this paper we unify, simplify, and extend previous work on the evolutionary dynamics of symmetric N-player matrix games with two pure strategies. In such games, gains from switching strategies depend, in general, on how many other individuals in the group play a given strategy. As a consequence, the gain function determining the gradient of selection can be a polynomial of degree N-1. In order to deal with the intricacy of the resulting evolutionary dynamics, we make use of the theory of polynomials in Bernstein form. This theory implies a tight link between the sign pattern of the gains from switching on the one hand and the number and stability of the rest points of the replicator dynamics on the other hand. While this relationship is a general one, it is most informative if gains from switching have at most two sign changes, as is the case for most multi-player matrix games considered in the literature. We demonstrate that previous results for public goods games are easily recovered and extended using this observation. Further examples illustrate how focusing on the sign pattern of the gains from switching obviates the need for a more involved analysis.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale has been the subject of various studies. The complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of process-based models for a first assessment. GISbased approaches associating an automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading may provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at the regional scale. The use of a digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, for the Canton de Vaud territory (Switzerland), a lithological map and a land use map, has allowed automatic identification of the potential source areas. The spreading estimates are based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations that allow to define the maximal runout distance of a debris flow.

Comparative cost-effectiveness analyses of cardiovascular magnetic resonance and coronary angiography combined with fractional flow reserve for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: According to recent guidelines, patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) should undergo revascularization if significant myocardial ischemia is present. Both, cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and fractional flow reserve (FFR) allow for a reliable ischemia assessment and in combination with anatomical information provided by invasive coronary angiography (CXA), such a work-up sets the basis for a decision to revascularize or not. The cost-effectiveness ratio of these two strategies is compared. METHODS: Strategy 1) CMR to assess ischemia followed by CXA in ischemia-positive patients (CMR + CXA), Strategy 2) CXA followed by FFR in angiographically positive stenoses (CXA + FFR). The costs, evaluated from the third party payer perspective in Switzerland, Germany, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US), included public prices of the different outpatient procedures and costs induced by procedural complications and by diagnostic errors. The effectiveness criterion was the correct identification of hemodynamically significant coronary lesion(s) (= significant CAD) complemented by full anatomical information. Test performances were derived from the published literature. Cost-effectiveness ratios for both strategies were compared for hypothetical cohorts with different pretest likelihood of significant CAD. RESULTS: CMR + CXA and CXA + FFR were equally cost-effective at a pretest likelihood of CAD of 62% in Switzerland, 65% in Germany, 83% in the UK, and 82% in the US with costs of CHF 5'794, euro 1'517, £ 2'680, and $ 2'179 per patient correctly diagnosed. Below these thresholds, CMR + CXA showed lower costs per patient correctly diagnosed than CXA + FFR. CONCLUSIONS: The CMR + CXA strategy is more cost-effective than CXA + FFR below a CAD prevalence of 62%, 65%, 83%, and 82% for the Swiss, the German, the UK, and the US health care systems, respectively. These findings may help to optimize resource utilization in the diagnosis of CAD.

Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LIDAR data

On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm3 landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38 m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and three-dimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The three-dimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope.

Dimensionality of drinking consequences - cross-cultural comparability and stability over time

Despite the long tradition for asking about the negative social and health consequences of alcohol consumption in surveys, little is known about the dimensionality of these consequences. Analysing cross-sectional and longitudinal data from the Nordic Taxation Study collected for Sweden, Finland, and Denmark in two waves in 2003 and 2004 by means of an explorative principal component analysis for categorical data (CATPCA), it is tested whether consequences have a single underlying dimension across cultures. It further tests the reliability, replicability, concurrent and predictive validity of the consequence scales. A one-dimensional solution was commonly preferable. Whereas the two-dimensional solution was unable to distinguish clearly between different concepts of consequences, the one-dimensional solution resulted in interpretable, generally very stable scales within countries across different samples and time.

High-resolution numerical modelling of flow-vegetation interactions

In this paper, we present and apply a new three-dimensional model for the prediction of canopy-flow and turbulence dynamics in open-channel flow. The approach uses a dynamic immersed boundary technique that is coupled in a sequentially staggered manner to a large eddy simulation. Two different biomechanical models are developed depending on whether the vegetation is dominated by bending or tensile forces. For bending plants, a model structured on the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation has been developed, whilst for tensile plants, an N-pendula model has been developed. Validation against flume data shows good agreement and demonstrates that for a given stem density, the models are able to simulate the extraction of energy from the mean flow at the stem-scale which leads to the drag discontinuity and associated mixing layer.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Detection of promoter activity by flow cytometric analysis of GFP reporter expression.

Low efficiency of transfection is often the limiting factor for acquiring conclusive data in reporter assays. It is especially difficult to efficiently transfect and characterize promoters in primary human cells. To overcome this problem we have developed a system in which reporter gene expression is quantified by flow cytometry. In this system, green fluorescent protein (GFP) reporter constructs are co-transfected with a reference plasmid that codes for the mouse cell surface antigen Thy-1.1 and serves to determine transfection efficiency. Comparison of mean GFP expression of the total transfected cell population with the activity of an analogous luciferase reporter showed that the sensitivity of the two reporter systems is similar. However, because GFP expression can be analyzed at the single-cell level and in the same cells the expression of the reference plasmid can be monitored by two-color fluorescence, the GFP reporter system is in fact more sensitive, particularly in cells which can only be transfected with a low efficiency.