Strategic behaviours in healthcare : evidence from primary care and pharmaceutical markets

We analyse the strategic behaviours of agents in a market through the appropriate¬ness of their skills to the market. If agents' skills are well adapted to market and they can reach their target, they will not need to adopt strategic behaviours. The agents will behave as selfish individuals. However, if their skills are not well adapted and they cannot attain their target alone, they will adopt strategic behaviours to reach their objectives. These behaviours will have a different impact on the utilities of other agents, depending on the skills and the objectives of the agent. If these agents need other agents to reach their objectives, they will behave as altruistic individuals who internalise the utilities of other agents in reaching their objectives and will adopt cooperative behaviours. However, if these agents fear that other agents could prevent them from reaching their target because they can foresee that the skills of other agents are better adapted than their own skills, the agents will then behave as predator individuals and will adopt destructive behaviours to attain their objective. It is in the interests of these agents to manipulate information to increase disorder and dissimulate their lack of skills. They will reproduce the strategies of animals that modify their appearance to escape predators or simulate being bait to attract their prey. These agents will seek to induce chaos into the behaviours of other agents to amplify the impact of their strategies. The appropriateness of skills to the market allows an understanding of the emer-gence of networks and associated strategies. The members of a networks are inputs who are excluded when their costs are higher than their benefits. A network simul-taneously allows cooperation and selfish, predatory behaviours among its members. A network may adopt informational strategies when seeking to become the leader in a market or when it cannot survive. The creation of networks and the manipulation of information are two overlapping evolutionary strategies, with the first strategy favouring the second. In our model, an agent does not behave like a firm that aims only to maximise the profits of the firm but rather as a member of a network who adopts strategic behaviours as a function of the interests of this network. If his skills are well adapted to the market and he can innovate, he will not invest in erroneous input; in contrast, if his skills are not adapted, the agent will invest in the erroneous input of information into the market in order to survive. Therefore, when any informational asymmetries between the agents and their principals characterise the market, the price cannot be the main element that allows equilibrium to be reached in the market; instead, the appropriateness of skills to the market enables equilibrium. We will now apply these hypotheses to explain the strategic behaviours of physicians and pharmaceutical companies.

Consistency and population sensitivity properties in marriage and Rrommate markets

We consider one-to-one matching markets in which agents can either be matched as pairs or remain single. In these so-called roommate markets agents are consumers and resources at the same time. Klaus (Games Econ Behav 72:172-186, 2011) introduced two new "population sensitivity" properties that capture the effect newcomers have on incumbent agents: competition sensitivity and resource sensitivity. On various roommate market domains (marriage markets, no-odd-rings roommate markets, solvable roommate markets),we characterize the core using either of the population sensitivity properties in addition to weak unanimity and consistency. On the domain of all roommate markets, we obtain two associated impossibility results.

Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

A novel mutation in the sulfate transporter gene SLC26A2 (DTDST) specific to the Finnish population causes de la Chapelle dysplasia.

BACKGROUND: Mutations in the sulfate transporter gene SLC26A2 (DTDST) cause a continuum of skeletal dysplasia phenotypes that includes achondrogenesis type 1B (ACG1B), atelosteogenesis type 2 (AO2), diastrophic dysplasia (DTD), and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia (rMED). In 1972, de la Chapelle et al reported two siblings with a lethal skeletal dysplasia, which was denoted "neonatal osseous dysplasia" and "de la Chapelle dysplasia" (DLCD). It was suggested that DLCD might be part of the SLC26A2 spectrum of phenotypes, both because of the Finnish origin of the original family and of radiographic similarities to ACG1B and AO2. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis whether SLC26A2 mutations are responsible for DLCD. METHODS: We studied the DNA from the original DLCD family and from seven Finnish DTD patients in whom we had identified only one copy of IVS1+2T>C, the common Finnish mutation. A novel SLC26A2 mutation was found in all subjects, inserted by site-directed mutagenesis in a vector harbouring the SLC26A2 cDNA, and expressed in sulfate transport deficient Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells to measure sulfate uptake activity. RESULTS: We identified a hitherto undescribed SLC26A2 mutation, T512K, homozygous in the affected subjects and heterozygous in both parents and in the unaffected sister. T512K was then identified as second pathogenic allele in the seven Finnish DTD subjects. Expression studies confirmed pathogenicity. CONCLUSIONS: DLCD is indeed allelic to the other SLC26A2 disorders. T512K is a second rare "Finnish" mutation that results in DLCD at homozygosity and in DTD when compounded with the milder, common Finnish mutation.

Haemodynamic role of vasopressin released during Finnish sauna.

The effect of vasopressin released during Finnish sauna on blood pressure, heart rate and skin blood flow was investigated in 12 healthy volunteers. Exposure to the hot air decrease body weight by 0.6 to 1.25 kg (mean = 0.8 kg, P less than 0.001). One hour after the end of the sauna sessions, plasma vasopressin was higher (1.7 +/- 0.2 pg/ml, P less than 0.01 mean +/- SEM) than before the sauna (1.0 +/- 0.1 pg/ml). No simultaneous change in plasma osmolality, plasma renin activity, plasma norepinephrine, epinephrine, cortisol, aldosterone, beta-endorphin and metenkephalin levels was observed. Despite the slight sauna-induced elevation in circulating vasopressin, intravenous injection of the specific vascular vasopressin antagonist d(CH2)5Tyr(Me)AVP (5 micrograms/kg) 1 h after the sauna had no effect on blood pressure, heart rate or skin blood flow. These data suggest that vasopressin released into the circulation during a sauna session reaches concentrations which are not high enough to interfere directly with vascular tone.