Effets hémodynamiques d'un inhibiteur de l'effet vasculaire de la vasopressine chez des patients avec insuffisance cardiaque congestive [Hemodynamic effects of an inhibitor of the vascular effects of vasopressin in patients with congestive heart failure]

To assess the role of vasopressin (AVP) in congestive heart failure (CHF), we investigated 10 patients with CHF refractory to conventional treatment, before and 60 minutes after intravenous administration of 5 micrograms/kg of d(CH2)5Tyr(Me)AVP, a specific antagonist of AVP at the vascular receptor level. Heart rate, systemic arterial pressure, pulmonary arterial pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, cardiac index by thermodilution, and cutaneous blood flow by laser-Doppler technique were measured. In 9 patients there was no significant hemodynamic and cutaneous blood flow response to the AVP antagonist. Plasma AVP was 2.3 +/- 0.8 pg/ml and plasma osmolality 284 +/- 14 mosm/kg H2O. The tenth patient had the most severe CHF. His plasma AVP was 55 pg/ml and plasma osmolality 290 mosm/kg. He responded to the AVP antagonist with a marked decrease in systemic arterial pressure from 115/61 to 79/41 mm Hg, in pulmonary arterial pressure from 58/31 to 33/13 mm Hg and in pulmonary capillary wedge pressure from 28 to 15 mm Hg. Simultaneously cardiac index increased from 1.1 to 2.21 X min-1 X m-2 and cutaneous blood flow rose 5-fold. Thus, most patients with CHF have only moderately elevated plasma AVP and its role in determining peripheral vascular resistance appears to be limited. AVP may become important in rare patients presenting with marked hemodynamic instability and very high plasma AVP.

Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of heart failure, other cardiovascular events, and death.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with systolic and diastolic cardiac dysfunction and an elevated cholesterol level, but data on cardiovascular outcomes and death are limited. METHODS: We studied 2730 men and women, aged 70 to 79 years, with baseline thyrotropin (TSH) measurements and 4-year follow-up data to determine whether subclinical hypothyroidism was associated with congestive heart failure (CHF), coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, and cardiovascular-related and total mortality. After the exclusion of participants with abnormal thyroxine levels, subclinical hypothyroidism was defined as a TSH level of 4.5 mIU/L or greater, and was further classified according to TSH levels (4.5-6.9, 7.0-9.9, and > or = 10.0 mIU/L). RESULTS: Subclinical hypothyroidism was present in 338 (12.4%) of the participants. Compared with euthyroid participants, CHF events occurred more frequently among those with a TSH level of 7.0 mIU/L or greater (35.0 vs 16.5 per 1000 person-years; P = .006), but not among those with TSH levels between 4.5 and 6.9 mIU/L. In multivariate analyses, the risk of CHF was higher among those with high TSH levels (TSH of 7.0-9.9 mIU/L: hazard ratio, 2.58 [95% confidence interval, 1.19-5.60]; and TSH of > or = 10.0 mIU/L: hazard ratio, 3.26 [95% confidence interval, 1.37-7.77]). Among the 2555 participants without CHF at baseline, the hazard ratio for incident CHF events was 2.33 (95% confidence interval, 1.10-4.96; P = .03) in those with a TSH of 7.0 mIU/L or greater. Subclinical hypothyroidism was not associated with increased risk for coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, or cardiovascular-related or total mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with an increased risk of CHF among older adults with a TSH level of 7.0 mIU/L or greater, but not with other cardiovascular events and mortality. Further investigation is warranted to assess whether subclinical hypothyroidism causes or worsens preexisting heart failure.

Biometal muscle to restore atrial transport function in a permanent atrial fibrillation animal model: a potential tool in the treatment of end-stage heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Half of the patients with end-stage heart failure suffer from persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Atrial kick (AK) accounts for 10-15% of the ejection fraction. A device restoring AK should significantly improve cardiac output (CO) and possibly delay ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. This study has been designed to assess the mechanical effects of a motorless pump on the right chambers of the heart in an animal model. METHODS: Atripump is a dome-shaped biometal actuator electrically driven by a pacemaker-like control unit. In eight sheep, the device was sutured onto the right atrium (RA). AF was simulated with rapid atrial pacing. RA ejection fraction (EF) was assessed with intracardiac ultrasound (ICUS) in baseline, AF and assisted-AF status. In two animals, the pump was left in place for 4 weeks and then explanted. Histology examination was carried out. The mean values for single measurement per animal with +/-SD were analysed. RESULTS: The contraction rate of the device was 60 per min. RA EF was 41% in baseline, 7% in AF and 21% in assisted-AF conditions. CO was 7+/-0.5 l min(-1) in baseline, 6.2+/-0.5 l min(-1) in AF and 6.7+/-0.5 l min(-1) in assisted-AF status (p<0.01). Histology of the atrium in the chronic group showed chronic tissue inflammation and no sign of tissue necrosis. CONCLUSIONS: The artificial muscle restores the AK and improves CO. In patients with end-stage cardiac failure and permanent AF, if implanted on both sides, it would improve CO and possibly delay or even avoid complex surgical treatment such as VAD implantation.

Acute hemodynamic effect of a vascular antagonist of vasopressin in patients with congestive heart failure.

To assess the role of arginine vasopressin (AVP) in congestive heart failure (CHF), 10 patients with CHF refractory to conventional treatment were studied before and 60 minutes after intravenous administration of 5 micrograms/kg of d(CH2)5Tyr(Me)AVP, a specific antagonist of AVP at the vascular receptor level. Heart rate, systemic arterial pressure, pulmonary arterial pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, cardiac index by thermodilution and cutaneous blood flow by laser-Doppler technique were measured. In 9 patients with no significant hemodynamic and cutaneous blood flow response to the AVP antagonist, baseline values (mean +/- standard deviation) were: heart rate, 77 +/- 14 beats/min; systemic arterial pressure, 120/79 +/- 18/8 mm Hg; pulmonary arterial pressure, 42/21 +/- 12/8 mm Hg; pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, 19 +/- 7 mm Hg; cardiac index, 2.2 +/- 0.6 liters/min/m2; plasma AVP, 2.3 +/- 0.8 pg/ml; and plasma osmolality, 284 +/- 14 mosm/kg H2O. The tenth patient had the most severe CHF. His plasma AVP level was 55 pg/ml and plasma osmolality was 290 mosm/kg. He responded to the AVP antagonist with a decrease in systemic arterial pressure from 115/61 to 79/41 mm Hg, in pulmonary arterial pressure from 58/31 to 33/13 mm Hg and in pulmonary capillary wedge pressure from 28 to 15 mm Hg. Simultaneously, cardiac index increased from 1.1 to 2.2 liters/min/m2 and heart rate from 113 to 120 beats/min; cutaneous blood flow increased 5-fold.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Appropriateness and long-term discontinuation rate of biological therapies in ulcerative colitis.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNFα agents are commonly used for ulcerative colitis (UC) therapy in the event of non-response to conventional strategies or as colon-salvaging therapy. The objectives were to assess the appropriateness of biological therapies for UC patients and to study treatment discontinuation over time, according to appropriateness of treatment, as a measure of outcome. METHODS: We selected adult ulcerative colitis patients from the Swiss IBD cohort who had been treated with anti-TNFα agents. Appropriateness of the first-line anti-TNFα treatment was assessed using detailed criteria developed during the European Panel on the Appropriateness of Therapy for UC. Treatment discontinuation as an outcome was assessed for categories of appropriateness. RESULTS: Appropriateness of the first-line biological treatment was determined in 186 UC patients. For 64% of them, this treatment was considered appropriate. During follow-up, 37% of all patients discontinued biological treatment, 17% specifically because of failure. Time-to-failure of treatment was significantly different among patients on an appropriate biological treatment compared to those for whom the treatment was considered not appropriate (p=0.0007). Discontinuation rate after 2years was 26% compared to 54% between those two groups. Patients on inappropriate biological treatment were more likely to have severe disease, concomitant steroids and/or immunomodulators. They were also consistently more likely to suffer a failure of efficacy and to stop therapy during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Appropriateness of first-line anti-TNFα therapy results in a greater likelihood of continuing with the therapy. In situations where biological treatment is uncertain or inappropriate, physicians should consider other options instead of prescribing anti-TNFα agents.

Performance of an ICU ventilator and two turbin-based ventilators dedicated to non invasive ventilation (NIV) in simulated high inspiratory effort and rate: a NIV-bench-study.

INTRODUCTION. The role of turbine-based NIV ventilators (TBV) versus ICU ventilators with NIV mode activated (ICUV) to deliver NIV in case of severe respiratory failure remains debated. OBJECTIVES. To compare the response time and pressurization capacity of TBV and ICUV during simulated NIV with normal and increased respiratory demand, in condition of normal and obstructive respiratory mechanics. METHODS. In a two-chamber lung model, a ventilator simulated normal (P0.1 = 2 mbar, respiratory rate RR = 15/min) or increased (P0.1 = 6 mbar, RR = 25/min) respiratory demand. NIV was simulated by connecting the lung model (compliance 100 ml/mbar; resistance 5 or 20 l/mbar) to a dummy head equipped with a naso-buccal mask. Connections allowed intentional leaks (29 ± 5 % of insufflated volume). Ventilators to test: Servo-i (Maquet), V60 and Vision (Philips Respironics) were connected via a standard circuit to the mask. Applied pressure support levels (PSL) were 7 mbar for normal and 14 mbar for increased demand. Airway pressure and flow were measured in the ventilator circuit and in the simulated airway. Ventilator performance was assessed by determining trigger delay (Td, ms), pressure time product at 300 ms (PTP300, mbar s) and inspiratory tidal volume (VT, ml) and compared by three-way ANOVA for the effect of inspiratory effort, resistance and the ventilator. Differences between ventilators for each condition were tested by oneway ANOVA and contrast (JMP 8.0.1, p\0.05). RESULTS. Inspiratory demand and resistance had a significant effect throughout all comparisons. Ventilator data figure in Table 1 (normal demand) and 2 (increased demand): (a) different from Servo-i, (b) different from V60.CONCLUSION. In this NIV bench study, with leaks, trigger delay was shorter for TBV with normal respiratory demand. By contrast, it was shorter for ICUV when respiratory demand was high. ICUV afforded better pressurization (PTP 300) with increased demand and PSL, particularly with increased resistance. TBV provided a higher inspiratory VT (i.e., downstream from the leaks) with normal demand, and a significantly (although minimally) lower VT with increased demand and PSL.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico- surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic acute respiratory failure (HARF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HARF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HARF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HARF (defined as PaCO2 > 50 mmHg), and receiving NIV between May 2008 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU, hospital and one year mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons were carried out with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p<0.05 (*). Results Two hundred and twenty patients were included. NIV successful patients received 16 [9-31] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Fifty patients (22.7%) were intubated 11 [2-34] hours after HARF occurence, after having receiving 10 [5-21] hours of NIV. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (18% vs. 6%, p<0.05) and hospital (42% vs. 31%, p>0.05) mortality. SAPS II score was related to increasing ICU (51 [29-74] vs. 23 [12-41]%, p<0.05), hospital (37% [20-59] vs 20% [12-37], p<0.05) and one year mortality (35% vs 20%, p<0.05). Surgical patients were less frequent among hospital fatalities (28.8% vs. 46.3%, p<0.05, RR 0.8 [0-6-0.9]). Nineteen patients (8.6%) died in the ICU, 73 (33.2%) during their hospital stay and 108 (49.1%) were dead one year after HARF. Conclusion The practice to start NIV in all suitable patients suffering from HARF is appropriate. NIV can safely and appropriately be used in patients suffering from HARF from an origin different from COPD exacerbation. Beside usual predictors of severity such as severity score (SAPS II) appear to be associated with increased mortality. Although ICU mortality was low in our patients, hospital and one year mortality were substantial. Surgical patients, although undergoing a similar ICU course, had a better hospital and one year outcome.

The significance of pre-existing minority Y181C mutations on virological failure of NNRTI-based, first-line antiretroviral therapy

Background: Reduced re'nal function has been reported with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). It is not clear whether TDF co-administered with a boosted protease inhibitor (PI) leads to a greater decline in renal function than TDF co-administered with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI).Methods: We selected ail antiretroviral therapy-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with calibrated or corrected serum creatinine measurements starting antiretroviral therapy with TDF and either efavirenz (EFV) or the ritonavir-boosted PIs, lopinavir (LPV/r) or atazanavir (ATV/r). As a measure of renal function, we used the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We calculated the difference in eGFR over time between two therapies using a marginal model for repeated measures. In weighted analyses, observations were weighted by the product of their point of treatment and censoring weights to adjust for differences both in the sort of patients starting each therapy and in the sort of patients remaining on each therapy over time.Results: By March 2011, 940 patients with at least one creatinine measurement on a first therapy with either TDF and EFV (n=484), TDF and LPVlr (n=269) or TDF and ATV/r (n=187) had been followed for a median of 1. 7, 1.2 and 1.3 years, respectively. Table 1 shows the difference in average estimated GFR (eGFR) over time since starting cART for two marginal models. The first model was not adjusted for potential confounders; the second mode! used weights to adjust for confounders. The results suggest a greater decline in renal function during the first 6 months if TDF is used with a PI rather than with an NNRTI, but no further difference between these therapies after the first 6 months. TDF and ATV/r may lead to a greater decline in the first 6 months than TDF and LPVlr.Conclusions: TDF co-administered with a boosted PI leads to a greater de cline in renal function over the first 6 months of therapy than TDF co-administered with an NNRTI; this decline may be worse with ATV/r than with LPV/r.

Progression rate of self-propelled feeding tubes in critically ill patients.

OBJECTIVE: Gaining postpyloric access in ventilated, sedated ICU patients usually requires time-consuming procedures such as endoscopy. Recently, a feeding tube has been introduced that migrates spontaneously into the jejunum in surgical patients. The study aimed at assessing the rate of migration of this tube in critically ill patients. DESIGN: Prospective descriptive trial. SETTING: Surgical ICU in a tertiary University Hospital. PATIENTS: One hundred and five consecutive surgical ICU patients requiring enteral feeding were enrolled, resulting in 128 feeding-tube placement attempts. METHODS: A self-propelled tube was used and followed up for 3 days: progression was assessed by daily contrast-injected X-ray. Severity of illness was assessed with SAPS II and organ failure assessed with SOFA score. RESULTS: The patients were aged 55+/-19 years (mean+/-SD) with SAPS II score of 45+/-18. Of the 128 tube placement attempts, 12 could not be placed in the stomach; eight were accidentally pulled out while in gastric position due to the necessity to avoid fixation during the progression phase. Among organ failures, respiratory failure predominated, followed by cardiovascular. By day 3, the postpyloric progression rate was 63/128 tubes (49%). There was no association between migration and age, or SAPS II score, but the progression rate was significantly poorer in patients with hemodynamic failure. Use of norepinephrine and morphine were negatively associated with tube progression (P<0.001), while abdominal surgery was not. In ten patients, jejunal tubes were placed by endoscopy. CONCLUSION: Self-propelled feeding tubes progressed from the stomach to the postpyloric position in 49% of patients, reducing the number of endoscopic placements: these tubes may facilitate enteral nutrient delivery in the ICU.

Measurement of glomerular filtration rate in obese patients: pitfalls and potential consequences on drug therapy.

Epidemiological studies have shown that obesity is associated with chronic kidney disease and end stage renal disease. These studies have used creatinine derived equations to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and have indexed GFR to body surface area (BSA). However, the use of equations using creatinine as a surrogate marker of glomerular filtration and the indexation of GFR for BSA can be questioned in the obese population. First, these equations lack precision when they are compared to gold standard GFR measurements such as inulin clearances; secondly, the indexation of GFR for 1.73 m(2) of BSA leads to a systematic underestimation of GFR compared to absolute GFR in obese patients who have BSA that usually exceed 1.73 m(2). Obesity is also associated with pathophysiological changes that can affect the pharmacokinetics of drugs. The effect of obesity on both renal function and drug pharmacokinetics raises the issue of correct drug dosage in obese individuals. This may be particularly relevant for drugs known to have a narrow therapeutic range or excreted by the kidney.

Epidemiology of incident heart failure in a contemporary elderly cohort: the health, aging, and body composition study.

BACKGROUND: The race- and sex-specific epidemiology of incident heart failure (HF) among a contemporary elderly cohort are not well described. METHODS: We studied 2934 participants without HF enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [2.9] years; 47.9% men; 58.6% white; and 41.4% black) and assessed the incidence of HF, population-attributable risk (PAR) of independent risk factors for HF, and outcomes of incident HF. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 258 participants (8.8%) developed HF (13.6 cases per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval, 12.1-15.4). Men and black participants were more likely to develop HF. No significant sex-based differences were observed in risk factors. Coronary heart disease (PAR, 23.9% for white participants and 29.5% for black participants) and uncontrolled blood pressure (PAR, 21.3% for white participants and 30.1% for black participants) carried the highest PAR in both races. Among black participants, 6 of 8 risk factors assessed (smoking, increased heart rate, coronary heart disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, uncontrolled blood pressure, and reduced glomerular filtration rate) had more than 5% higher PAR compared with that among white participants, leading to a higher overall proportion of HF attributable to modifiable risk factors in black participants vs white participants (67.8% vs 48.9%). Participants who developed HF had higher annual mortality (18.0% vs 2.7%). No racial difference in survival after HF was noted; however, rehospitalization rates were higher among black participants (62.1 vs 30.3 hospitalizations per 100 person-years, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Incident HF is common in older persons; a large proportion of HF risk is attributed to modifiable risk factors. Racial differences in risk factors for HF and in hospitalization rates after HF need to be considered in prevention and treatment efforts.

Hormonal, global, and regional haemodynamic responses to a vascular antagonist of vasopressin in patients with congestive heart failure with and without hyponatraemia.

The pathophysiological role of an increase in circulating vasopressin in sustaining global and regional vasoconstriction in patients with congestive heart failure has not been established, particularly in patients with hyponatraemia. To assess this further, 20 patients with congestive heart failure refractory to digoxin and diuretics were studied before and 60 minutes after the intravenous injection (5 micrograms/kg) of the vascular antagonist of vasopressin [1(beta-mercapto-beta,beta-cyclopentamethylene-propionic acid), 2-(0-methyl) tyrosine] arginine vasopressin. Ten patients were hyponatraemic (plasma sodium less than 135 mmol/l) and 10 were normonatraemic. In both groups of patients the vascular vasopressin antagonist did not alter systemic or pulmonary artery pressures, right atrial pressure, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, cardiac index, or vascular resistances. Furthermore, there was no change in skin and hepatic blood flow in either group after the injection of the vascular antagonist. Only one patient in the hyponatraemic group showed considerable haemodynamic improvement. He had severe congestive heart failure and a high concentration of plasma vasopressin (51 pmol/l). Plasma renin activity, vasopressin, or catecholamine concentrations were not significantly changed in response to the administration of the vasopressin antagonist in either the hyponatraemic or the normonatraemic groups. Patients with hyponatraemia, however, had higher baseline plasma catecholamine concentrations, heart rate, pulmonary pressure and resistance, and lower hepatic blood flow than patients without hyponatraemia. Plasma vasopressin and plasma renin activity were slightly, though not significantly, higher in the hyponatraemic group. Thus the role of vasopressin in sustaining regional or global vasoconstriction seems limited in patients with congestive heart failure whether or not concomitant hyponatraemia is present. Vasopressin significantly increases the vascular tone only in rare patients with severe congestive heart failure and considerably increased vasopressin concentrations. Patients with hyponatraemia do, however, have raised baseline catecholamine concentrations, heart rate, pulmonary arterial pressure and resistance, and decreased hepatic blood flow.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico-surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction: Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic respiratory failure (HRF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HRF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HRF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods: Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HRF (defined as PaCO2 >50 mm Hg), and receiving NIV between January 2009 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU and hospital mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p <0.05 (*). Results: 164 patients were included, 45 (27.4%) of whom were intubated after 10 [2-34] hours, after having received 7 [2-19] hours of NIV. NIV successful patients received 15 [5-22] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (20% vs. 3%, p <0.001) and hospital (46.7% vs. 30.2, p >0.05) mortality. Conclusions: A majority of patients requiring NIV for hypercapnic respiratory failure in our ICU have no diagnosed chronic pulmonary disease. These patients tend to have increased ICUand hospital mortality. The majority of patients were non-surgical, a feature correlated with increased hospital mortality. Beside usual predictors of severity such as age and SAPS II, absence of diagnosed chronic pulmonary disease and non-operative state appear to be associated with increased mortality. Further studies should explore whether these patients are indeed more prone to an adverse outcome and which therapeutic strategies might contribute to alter this course.

Analysis of past and future dam formation and failure in the Santa Cruz River (San Juan province, Argentina)

Around 11.5 * 106 m3 of rock detached from the eastern slope of the Santa Cruz valley (San Juan province, Argentina) in the first fortnight of January 2005. The rockslide?debris avalanche blocked the course, resulting in the development of a lake with maximum length of around 3.5 km. The increase in the inflow rate from 47,000?74,000 m3/d between April and October to 304,000 m3/d between late October and the first fortnight of November, accelerated the growing rate of the lake. On 12 November 2005 the dam failed, releasing 24.6 * 106 m3 of water. The resulting outburst flood caused damages mainly on infrastructure, and affected the facilities of a hydropower dam which was under construction 250 km downstream from the source area. In this work we describe causes and consequences of the natural dam formation and failure, and we dynamically model the 2005 rockslide?debris avalanche with DAN3D. Additionally, as a volume ~ 24 * 106 m3of rocks still remain unstable in the slope, we use the results of the back analysis to forecast the formation of a future natural dam. We analyzed two potential scenarios: a partial slope failure of 6.5 * 106 m3 and a worst case where all the unstable volume remaining in the slope fails. The spreading of those potential events shows that a new blockage of the Santa Cruz River is likely to occur. According to their modeled morphometry and the contributing watershed upstream the blockage area, as the one of 2005, the dams would also be unstable. This study shows the importance of back and forward analysis that can be carried out to obtain critical information for land use planning, hazards mitigation, and emergency management.

The effect of treatment with calcitonin on vertebral fracture rate in osteoporosis.

The efficacy of treatments for osteoporosis does not become evident when evaluated by fracture incidence (FI). Vertebral FI decreased in all controlled studies on calcitonin, but not significantly. Small sample sizes and short periods of treatment may have masked a possible therapeutic benefit, but longer, controlled studies with sodium fluoride or etidronate in larger groups of patients also failed to show a decrease in FI. The present analysis of nine published, therapeutic studies which indicate the FI per year and the initial prevalence of vertebral fractures, examines the question of whether the initial prevalence of fractures has an effect on the subsequent incidence of new fractures and whether the therapeutic effects have to be evaluated as a function of the initial prevalence of fractures. Bearing in mind the differences in roentgenological evaluation and in the size and quality of the various studies, the analysis revealed (1) that in the control groups there was a higher FI in patients with more than three vertebral fractures at baseline (estimated odds ratio (OR) = 49, p = 0.011); (2) that a similar trend, although not statistically significant, was observed in treated patients; (3) that the groups of control patients treated for more than 1 year showed in general an increase in FI beyond the first year and that the reverse was true in treated patients. In conclusion, failure to allow for the initial prevalence of vertebral fractures at the individual level in therapeutic trials of calcitonin to treat osteoporosis and prevent new fractures might have contributed to the absence of a demonstrable benefit of the treatment in those studies.