On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

Guidelines for perioperative care in elective colonic surgery: Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS®) Society recommendations.

BACKGROUND: This review aims to present a consensus for optimal perioperative care in colonic surgery and to provide graded recommendations for items for an evidenced-based enhanced perioperative protocol. METHODS: Studies were selected with particular attention paid to meta-analyses, randomised controlled trials and large prospective cohorts. For each item of the perioperative treatment pathway, available English-language literature was examined, reviewed and graded. A consensus recommendation was reached after critical appraisal of the literature by the group. RESULTS: For most of the protocol items, recommendations are based on good-quality trials or meta-analyses of good-quality trials (quality of evidence and recommendations according to the GRADE system). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the evidence available for each item of the multimodal perioperative-care pathway, the Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Society, International Association for Surgical Metabolism and Nutrition (IASMEN) and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) present a comprehensive evidence-based consensus review of perioperative care for colonic surgery.

Survey of Biobanks at a Swiss University Hospital

Human biobanks are a valuable source of biospecimens and personal data to be used for research. Little is known of how many biobanks exist at a given Swiss University Hospital. The purpose of this survey conducted at the CHUV hospital ( >40'000 patients hospitalized per year) and the faculty of biology and medicine (FBM) at the University in Lausanne, Switzerland was a) to provide an overview of the number of biobanks, b) to assess their purpose and size, c) to determine the kinds of biospecimens collected and d) to analyse the extent to which the biobanks follow the Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences (SAMS) guidelines on biobanks

The estimation of PMP and PMF on alpine basins in Switzerland

This paper presents a very fine grid hydrological model based on the spatiotemporal repartition of precipitation and on the topography. The goal is to estimate the flood on a catchment area, using a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) leading to a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The spatiotemporal distribution of the precipitation was realized using six clouds modeled by the advection-diffusion equation. The equation shows the movement of the clouds over the terrain and also gives the evolution of the rain intensity in time. This hydrological modeling is followed by a hydraulic modeling of the surface and subterranean flows, done considering the factors that contribute to the hydrological cycle, such as the infiltration, the exfiltration and the snowmelt. This model was applied to several Swiss basins using measured rain, with results showing a good correlation between the simulated and observed flows. This good correlation proves that the model is valid and gives us the confidence that the results can be extrapolated to phenomena of extreme rainfall of PMP type. In this article we present some results obtained using a PMP rainfall and the developed model.

Body image perception and weight-related behaviour among adolescents of the Seychelles

Background: We examined one's own body image perception and its association with reported weight-related behavior among adolescents of a rapidly developing country in the African region. Methods: We conducted a school-based survey of 1432 students aged 11-17 years in the Seychelles. Weight and height were measured, and thinness, normal weight and overweight were assessed along standard criteria. A self-administered and anonymous questionnaire was administered. Perception of body image was assessed using both a closed-ended question (CEQ) and the Stunkard's pictorial silhouettes (SPS). Finally, a question assessed voluntary attempts to change weight. Results: Overall, 14.1% of the students were thin, 63.9% were normal-weight, and 22.0% were overweight or obese. There was fair agreement between actual weight status and self-perceived body image based on either CEQ or SPS. However, a substantial proportion of the overweight students did not consider themselves as overweight (SPS: 24%, CEQ: 34%) and, inversely, a substantial proportion of the normal-weight students considered themselves as too thin (SPS: 29%, CEQ: 15%). Among the overweight students, an adequate attempt to lose weight was reported more often by boys and girls who perceived themselves as overweight vs. not overweight (72-88% vs. 40-71%, p <0.05 for most comparisons). Among the normal-weight students, an inadequate attempt to gain weight was reported more often by boys and girls who perceived themselves as thin vs. not thin (27-68% vs. 11-19%, p <0.05). Girls had leaner own body ideals than boys. Conclusions: We found that substantial proportions of overweight students did not perceive themselves as overweight and/or did not want to lose weight and, inversely, that many normalweight students perceived themselves as too thin and/or wanted to gain weight: this points to forces that can drive the upwards overweight trends. Appropriate perception of one's weight was associated with adequate weight-control behavior, although not strongly, emphasizing that appropriate weight perception is only one of several factors driving adequate weight-related behavior. These findings emphasize the need to address appropriate perception of one's own weight and adequate weight-related behavior in adolescents for both individual and community weight-related interventions.

Contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of improvised explosives: isotopic study of black powders ans ammonium nitrates

The establishment of legislative rules about explosives in the eighties has reduced the illicit use of military and civilian explosives. However, bomb-makers have rapidly taken advantage of substances easily accessible and intended for licit uses to produce their own explosives. This change in strategy has given rise to an increase of improvised explosive charges, which is moreover assisted by the ease of implementation of the recipes, widely available through open sources. While the nature of the explosive charges has evolved, instrumental methods currently used in routine, although more sensitive than before, have a limited power of discrimination and allow mostly the determination of the chemical nature of the substance. Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been applied to a wide range of forensic materials. Conclusions drawn from the majority of the studies stress its high power of discrimination. Preliminary studies conducted so far on the isotopic analysis of intact explosives (pre-blast) have shown that samples with the same chemical composition and coming from different sources could be differentiated. The measurement of stable isotope ratios appears therefore as a new and remarkable analytical tool for the discrimination or the identification of a substance with a definite source. However, much research is still needed to assess the validity of the results in order to use them either in an operational prospect or in court. Through the isotopic study of black powders and ammonium nitrates, this research aims at evaluating the contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of explosives, both from a pre-blast and from a post-blast approach. More specifically, the goal of the research is to provide additional elements necessary to a valid interpretation of the results, when used in explosives investigation. This work includes a fundamental study on the variability of the isotopic profile of black powder and ammonium nitrate in both space and time. On one hand, the inter-variability between manufacturers and, particularly, the intra-variability within a manufacturer has been studied. On the other hand, the stability of the isotopic profile over time has been evaluated through the aging of these substances exposed to different environmental conditions. The second part of this project considers the applicability of this high-precision technology to traces and residues of explosives, taking account of the characteristics specific to the field, including their sampling, a probable isotopic fractionation during the explosion, and the interferences with the matrix of the site.

Breast cancer in younger women in Switzerland 1996-2009 : a longitudinal population-based study

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and a leading cause of death in younger women. METHODS: We analysed incidence, mortality and relative survival (RS) in women with BC aged 20-49 years at diagnosis, between 1996 and 2009 in Switzerland. Trends are reported as estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS: Our findings confirm a slight increase in the incidence of BC in younger Swiss women during the period 1996-2009. The increase was largest in women aged 20-39 years (EAPC 1.8%). Mortality decreased in both age groups with similar EAPCs. Survival was lowest among women 20-39 years (10-year RS 73.4%). We observed no notable differences in stage of disease at diagnosis that might explain these differences. CONCLUSIONS: The increased incidence and lower survival in younger women diagnosed with BC in Switzerland indicates possible differences in risk factors, tumour biology and treatment characteristics that require additional examination.

How much protein and energy are needed to equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in ventilated critically ill children?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Protein and energy requirements in critically ill children are currently based on insufficient data. Moreover, longitudinal measurements of both total urinary nitrogen (TUN) and resting energy expenditure (REE) are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate how much protein and energy are needed to equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in ventilated critically ill children on the basis of daily measurements of TUN, REE and protein and energy intakes. Comparisons were made with the guidelines of the American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition and the Dietary Reference Intakes. METHODS: Children with an expected duration of mechanical ventilation ≥72 h were prospectively recruited. TUN was measured by chemiluminescence, and REE was measured by indirect calorimetry. Generalised linear models for longitudinal data were used to study the relation between protein intake and nitrogen balance and to calculate the minimum intake of protein needed to achieve nitrogen equilibrium. A similar approach was used for energy. Results were compared to the recommended values. RESULTS: Based on 402 measurements performed in 74 children (median age: 21 months), the mean TUN was high at 0.20 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.22) g/kg/d and the REE was 55 (95% CI: 54, 57) kcal/kg/d. Nitrogen and energy balances were achieved with 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4, 1.6) g/kg/d of protein and 58 (95% CI: 53, 63) kcal/kg/d for the entire group, but there were differences among children of different ages. Children required more protein and less energy than the Dietary Reference Intakes. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill children, TUN was elevated and REE was reduced during the entire period of mechanical ventilation. Minimum intakes of 1.5 g/kg/d of protein and 58 kcal/kg/d can equilibrate nitrogen and energy balances in children up to 4 years old. Older children require more protein.