Profiles of drug users in Switzerland and effects of early-onset intensive use of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis on other illicit drug use.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY / PRINCIPLES: The main aim of this study was to investigate profiles of drug users, with a particular focus on illicit drugs other than cannabis, and to explore the effect of early-onset intensive use (drunkenness, daily smoking, high on cannabis) on profiles of illicit drug use. METHODS: Baseline data from a representative sample of 5,831 young Swiss men in the ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors were used. Substance use (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and 15 types of other illicit drug) and age of onset of intensive use were assessed. The Item Response Theory (IRT) and prevalence rates at different ages of onset were used to reveal different profiles of illicit drug use. RESULTS: In addition to cannabis, there were two profiles of other illicit drug use: (a) "softer" drug users (uppers, hallucinogens and inhaled drugs), among which ecstasy had the highest discriminatory potential (IRT slope = 4.68, standard error (SE) = 0.48; p <0.001); and (b) "harder" drug users (heroin, ketamine, gamma-hydroxybutyrate/gamma-hydroxylactone, research chemicals, crystal meth and spice), among which ketamine had the highest discriminatory potential (slope = 4.05; SE = 0.63; p <0.001). Onset of intensive use at the age of 12 years or younger also discriminated between these two profiles. CONCLUSION: Both the IRT model and the effect of onset of intensive use enabled two groups of illicit drugs to be identified. In particular, very early onset (at 12 years or younger) intensive use of any substance was a marker for later use of the second group of drugs.

Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Trends and determinants of time in bed in Geneva, Switzerland

STUDY OBJECTIVES: There is limited information regarding sleep duration and determinants in Switzerland. We aimed to assess the trends and determinants of time in bed as a proxy for sleep duration in the Swiss canton of Geneva. METHODS: Data from repeated, independent cross-sectional representative samples of adults (≥ 18 years) of the Geneva population were collected between 2005 and 2011. Self-reported time in bed, education, monthly income, and nationality were assessed by questionnaire. RESULTS: Data from 3,853 participants (50% women, 51.7 ± 10.9 years) were analyzed. No significant trend was observed between 2005 and 2011 regarding time in bed or the prevalence of short (≤ 6 h/day) and long (> 9 h/day) time in bed. Elderly participants reported a longer time in bed (year-adjusted mean ± standard error: 7.67 ± 0.02, 7.82 ± 0.03, and 8.41 ± 0.04 h/day for 35-50, 50-65, and 65+ years, respectively, p < 0.001), while shorter time in bed was reported by non-Swiss participants (7.77 ± 0.03 vs. 7.92 ± 0.03 h/day for Swiss nationals, p < 0.001), participants with higher education (7.92 ± 0.02 for non-university vs. 7.74 ± 0.03 h/day for university, p < 0.001) or higher income (8.10 ± 0.04, 7.84 ± 0.03, and 7.70 ± 0.03 h/day for < 5,000 SFr; 5,000-9,500 SFr, and > 9,500 SFr, respectively, p < 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted polytomous logistic regression showed short and long time in bed to be positively associated with obesity and negatively associated with income. CONCLUSION: In a Swiss adult population, sleep duration as assessed by time in bed did not change significantly between 2005 and 2011. Both clinical and socioeconomic factors influence time in bed.

An SH2 domain-containing 5' inositolphosphatase inhibits insulin-induced GLUT4 translocation and growth factor-induced actin filament rearrangement.

Tyrosine kinase receptors lead to rapid activation of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3 kinase) and the subsequent formation of phosphatidylinositides (PtdIns) 3,4-P2 and PtdIns 3,4, 5-P3, which are thought to be involved in signaling for glucose transporter GLUT4 translocation, cytoskeletal rearrangement, and DNA synthesis. However, the specific role of each of these PtdIns in insulin and growth factor signaling is still mainly unknown. Therefore, we assessed, in the current study, the effect of SH2-containing inositol phosphatase (SHIP) expression on these biological effects. SHIP is a 5' phosphatase that decreases the intracellular levels of PtdIns 3,4,5-P3. Expression of SHIP after nuclear microinjection in 3T3-L1 adipocytes inhibited insulin-induced GLUT4 translocation by 100 +/- 21% (mean +/- the standard error) at submaximal (3 ng/ml) and 64 +/- 5% at maximal (10 ng/ml) insulin concentrations (P < 0.05 and P < 0.001, respectively). A catalytically inactive mutant of SHIP had no effect on insulin-induced GLUT4 translocation. Furthermore, SHIP also abolished GLUT4 translocation induced by a membrane-targeted catalytic subunit of PI3 kinase. In addition, insulin-, insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I)-, and platelet-derived growth factor-induced cytoskeletal rearrangement, i.e., membrane ruffling, was significantly inhibited (78 +/- 10, 64 +/- 3, and 62 +/- 5%, respectively; P < 0.05 for all) in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. In a rat fibroblast cell line overexpressing the human insulin receptor (HIRc-B), SHIP inhibited membrane ruffling induced by insulin and IGF-I by 76 +/- 3% (P < 0.001) and 68 +/- 5% (P < 0.005), respectively. However, growth factor-induced stress fiber breakdown was not affected by SHIP expression. Finally, SHIP decreased significantly growth factor-induced mitogen-activated protein kinase activation and DNA synthesis. Expression of the catalytically inactive mutant had no effect on these cellular responses. In summary, our results show that expression of SHIP inhibits insulin-induced GLUT4 translocation, growth factor-induced membrane ruffling, and DNA synthesis, indicating that PtdIns 3,4,5-P3 is the key phospholipid product mediating these biological actions.

The handaxe and the microscope: individual and social learning in a multidimensional model of adaptation

When individuals learn by trial-and-error, they perform randomly chosen actions and then reinforce those actions that led to a high payoff. However, individuals do not always have to physically perform an action in order to evaluate its consequences. Rather, they may be able to mentally simulate actions and their consequences without actually performing them. Such fictitious learners can select actions with high payoffs without making long chains of trial-and-error learning. Here, we analyze the evolution of an n-dimensional cultural trait (or artifact) by learning, in a payoff landscape with a single optimum. We derive the stochastic learning dynamics of the distance to the optimum in trait space when choice between alternative artifacts follows the standard logit choice rule. We show that for both trial-and-error and fictitious learners, the learning dynamics stabilize at an approximate distance of root n/(2 lambda(e)) away from the optimum, where lambda(e) is an effective learning performance parameter depending on the learning rule under scrutiny. Individual learners are thus unlikely to reach the optimum when traits are complex (n large), and so face a barrier to further improvement of the artifact. We show, however, that this barrier can be significantly reduced in a large population of learners performing payoff-biased social learning, in which case lambda(e) becomes proportional to population size. Overall, our results illustrate the effects of errors in learning, levels of cognition, and population size for the evolution of complex cultural traits. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association of calcemia and serum vitamin D with 24H-urinary calcium excretion in a swiss population-based study

Background: Elevated urinary calcium excretion is associated with reduced bone mineral density. Population-based data on urinary calcium excretion are scarce. We explored the association of serum calcium and circulating levels of vitamin D (including 25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3) with urinary calcium excretion in men and women in a population-based study. Methods: We used data from the "Swiss Survey on Salt" conducted between 2010 and 2012 and including people aged 15 years and over. Twenty-four hour urine collection, blood analysis, clinical examination and anthropometric measures were collected in 11 centres from the 3 linguistic regions of Switzerland. Vitamin D was measured centrally using liquid chromatography - tandem mass spectrometry. Hypercalciuria was defined as urinary calcium excretion >0.1 mmol/kg/24h. Multivariable linear regression was used to explore factors associated with 24-hour urinary calcium excretion (mmol/24h) squared root transformed, taken as the dependant variable. Vitamin D was divided into monthspecific tertiles with the first tertile having the lowest value and the third tertile having the highest value. Results: The 669 men and 624 women had mean (SD) age of 49.2 (18.1) and 47 (17.9) years and a prevalence of hypercalciuria of 8.9% and 8.0%, respectively. In adjusted models, the association of urinary calcium excretion with protein-corrected serum calcium was (β coefficient } standard error, according to urinary calcium squared root transformed) 1.125 } 0.184 mmol/L per square-root (mmol/24h) (P<0.001) in women and 0.374 } 0.224 (P=0.096) in men. Men in the third month-specific vitamin D tertile had higher urinary calcium excretion than men in the first tertile (0.170 } 0.05 nmol/L per mmol/24h, P=0.001) and the corresponding association was 0.048 } 0.043, P= 0.272 in women. Conclusion: About one in eleven person has hypercalciuria in the Swiss population. The positive association of serum calcium with urinary calcium excretion was steeper in women than in men, independently of menopausal status. Circulating vitamin D was associated positively with urinary calcium excretion only in men. The reasons underlying the observed sex differences in the hormonal control of urinary calcium excretion need to be explored in further studies.

Heritability of ambulatory and office blood pressure in the Swiss population.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) is known to aggregate in families. Yet, heritability estimates are population-specific and no Swiss data have been published so far. We estimated the heritability of ambulatory and office BP in a Swiss population-based sample. METHODS: The Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension is a population-based family study focusing on BP genetics. Office and ambulatory BP were measured in 1009 individuals from 271 nuclear families. Heritability was estimated for SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure using a maximum likelihood method implanted in the Statistical Analysis in Genetic Epidemiology software. RESULTS: The 518 women and 491 men included in this analysis had a mean (±SD) age of 48.3 (±17.4) and 47.3 (±17.7) years, and a mean BMI of 23.8 (±4.2) and 25.9 (±4.1) kg/m, respectively. Narrow-sense heritability estimates (±standard error) for ambulatory SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure were 0.37 ± 0.07, 0.26 ± 0.07, and 0.29 ± 0.07 for 24-h BP; 0.39 ± 0.07, 0.28 ± 0.07, and 0.27 ± 0.07 for day BP; and 0.25 ± 0.07, 0.20 ± 0.07, and 0.30 ± 0.07 for night BP, respectively (all P < 0.001). Heritability estimates for office SBP, DBP, and pulse pressure were 0.21 ± 0.08, 0.25 ± 0.08, and 0.18 ± 0.07 (all P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We found significant heritability estimates for both ambulatory and office BP in this Swiss population-based study. Our findings justify the ongoing search for the genetic determinants of BP.

Did Dumbo suffer a heart attack? independent association between earlobe crease and cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Earlobe crease (ELC) has been associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) or risk factors (CVRF) and could be a marker predisposing to CVD. However, most studies studied only a small number of CVRF and no complete assessment of the associations between ELC and CVRF has been performed in a single study. METHODS: Population-based study (n = 4635, 46.7 % men) conducted between 2009 and 2012 in Lausanne, Switzerland. RESULTS: Eight hundred six participants (17.4 %) had an ELC. Presence of ELC was associated with male gender and older age. After adjusting for age and gender (and medication whenever necessary), presence of ELC was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with higher levels of body mass index (BMI) [adjusted mean ± standard error: 27.0 ± 0.2 vs. 26.02 ± 0.07 kg/m(2)], triglycerides [1.40 ± 0.03 vs. 1.36 ± 0.01 mmol/L] and insulin [8.8 ± 0.2 vs. 8.3 ± 0.1 μIU/mL]; lower levels of HDL cholesterol [1.61 ± 0.02 vs. 1.64 ± 0.01 mmol/L]; higher frequency of abdominal obesity [odds ratio and (95 % confidence interval) 1.20 (1.02; 1.42)]; hypertension [1.41 (1.18; 1.67)]; diabetes [1.43 (1.15; 1.79)]; high HOMA-IR [1.19 (1.00; 1.42)]; metabolic syndrome [1.28 (1.08; 1.51)] and history of CVD [1.55 (1.21; 1.98)]. No associations were found between ELC and estimated cardiovascular risk, inflammatory or liver markers. After further adjustment on BMI, only the associations between ELC and hypertension [1.30 (1.08; 1.56)] and history of CVD [1.47 (1.14; 1.89)] remained significant. For history of CVD, further adjustment on diabetes, hypertension, total cholesterol and smoking led to similar results [1.36 (1.05; 1.77)]. CONCLUSION: In this community-based sample ELC was significantly and independently associated with hypertension and history of CVD.

CHARACTERISING THE EOS SLOT-SCANNING SYSTEM WITH THE EFFECTIVE DETECTIVE QUANTUM EFFICIENCY.

NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">As opposed to the standard detective quantum efficiency (DQE), effective DQE (eDQE) is a figure of merit that allows comparing the performances of imaging systems in the presence of scatter rejection devices. The geometry of the EOS™ slot-scanning system is such that the detector is self-collimated and rejects scattered radiation. In this study, the EOS system was characterised using the eDQE in imaging conditions similar to those used in clinical practice: with phantoms of different widths placed in the X-ray beam, for various incident air kerma and tube voltages corresponding to the phantom thickness. Scatter fractions in EOS images were extremely low, around 2 % for all configurations. Maximum eDQE values spanned 9-14.8 % for a large range of air kerma at the detector plane from 0.01 to 1.34 µGy. These figures were obtained with non-optimised EOS setting but still over-performed most of the maximum eDQEs recently assessed for various computed radiology and digital radiology systems with antiscatter grids.

Accuracy of a new transmittance-reflectance pulse oximetry sensor in critically ill neonates.

OBJECTIVE: To test the accuracy of a new pulse oximeter sensor based on transmittance and reflectance. This sensor makes transillumination of tissue unnecessary and allows measurements on the hand, forearm, foot, and lower limb. DESIGN: Prospective, open, nonrandomized criterion standard study. SETTING: Neonatal intensive care unit, tertiary care center. PATIENTS: Sequential sample of 54 critically ill neonates (gestational age 27 to 42 wks; postnatal age 1 to 28 days) with arterial catheters in place. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 99 comparisons between pulse oximetry and arterial saturation were obtained. Comparison of femoral or umbilical arterial blood with transcutaneous measurements on the lower limb (n = 66) demonstrated an excellent correlation (r2 = .96). The mean difference was +1.44% +/- 3.51 (SD) % (range -11% to +8%). Comparison of the transcutaneous values with the radial artery saturation from the corresponding upper limb (n = 33) revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.94 with a mean error of +0.66% +/- 3.34% (range -6% to +7%). The mean difference between noninvasive and invasive measurements was least with the test sensor on the hand, intermediate on the calf and arm, and greatest on the foot. The mean error and its standard deviation were slightly larger for arterial saturation values < 90% than for values > or = 90%. CONCLUSION: Accurate pulse oximetry saturation can be acquired from the hand, forearm, foot, and calf of critically ill newborns using this new sensor.

Validation and long-term evaluation of a modified on-line chiral analytical method for therapeutic drug monitoring of (R,S)-methadone in clinical samples.

Matrix effects, which represent an important issue in liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry or tandem mass spectrometry detection, should be closely assessed during method development. In the case of quantitative analysis, the use of stable isotope-labelled internal standard with physico-chemical properties and ionization behaviour similar to the analyte is recommended. In this paper, an example of the choice of a co-eluting deuterated internal standard to compensate for short-term and long-term matrix effect in the case of chiral (R,S)-methadone plasma quantification is reported. The method was fully validated over a concentration range of 5-800 ng/mL for each methadone enantiomer with satisfactory relative bias (-1.0 to 1.0%), repeatability (0.9-4.9%) and intermediate precision (1.4-12.0%). From the results obtained during validation, a control chart process during 52 series of routine analysis was established using both intermediate precision standard deviation and FDA acceptance criteria. The results of routine quality control samples were generally included in the +/-15% variability around the target value and mainly in the two standard deviation interval illustrating the long-term stability of the method. The intermediate precision variability estimated in method validation was found to be coherent with the routine use of the method. During this period, 257 trough concentration and 54 peak concentration plasma samples of patients undergoing (R,S)-methadone treatment were successfully analysed for routine therapeutic drug monitoring.

Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Reliable acetabular cup orientation with a new gravity-assisted guidance system.

Acetabular cup orientation is a key factor determining hip stability, and standard mechanical guides have shown little help in improving alignment. An in vitro study was carried out to compare the accuracy and precision of a new gravity-assisted guidance system with a standard mechanical guide. Three hundred ten cups were impacted by 5 surgeons, and the final cup orientation was measured. With the new guide, the average error in anteversion was 0.4 degrees , compared with 10.4 degrees with the standard guide and 0.3 degrees and -4.7 degrees , respectively, for abduction angles. The average time required for orienting the cups was similar for both guides. The accuracy and reproducibility obtained with the new guide were better (P < .0001). These good results would require a clinical validation.

A safety run-in and randomized phase 2 study of cilengitide combined with chemoradiation for newly diagnosed glioblastoma (NABTT 0306).

BACKGROUND: Cilengitide is a selective integrin inhibitor that is well tolerated and has demonstrated biologic activity in patients with recurrent malignant glioma. The primary objectives of this randomized phase 2 trial were to determine the safety and efficacy of cilengitide when combined with radiation and temozolomide for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme and to select a dose for comparative clinical testing. METHODS: In total, 112 patients were accrued. Eighteen patients received standard radiation and temozolomide with cilengitide in a safety run-in phase followed by a randomized phase 2 trial with 94 patients assigned to either a 500 mg dose group or 2000 mg dose group. The trial was designed to estimate overall survival benefit compared with a New Approaches to Brain Tumor Therapy (NABTT) Consortium internal historic control and data from the published European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trial EORTC 26981. RESULTS: Cilengitide at all doses studied was well tolerated with radiation and temozolomide. The median survival was 19.7 months for all patients, 17.4 months for the patients in the 500 mg dose group, 20.8 months for patients in the 2000 mg dose group, 30 months for patients who had methylated O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) status, and 17.4 months for patients who had unmethylated MGMT status. For patients aged ≤70 years, the median survival and survival at 24 months was superior to what was observed in the EORTC trial (20.7 months vs 14.6 months and 41% vs 27%, respectively; P = .008). CONCLUSIONS: Cilengitide was well tolerated when combined with standard chemoradiation and may improve survival for patients newly diagnosed with glioblastoma multiforme regardless of MGMT methylation status. The authors concluded that, from an efficacy and safety standpoint, future trials of this agent in this population should use the 2000 mg dose. Cancer 2012. © 2012 American Cancer Society.