Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Osteoporotic fracture risk in elderly women: estimation with quantitative heel US and clinical risk factors

PURPOSE: To derive a prediction rule by using prospectively obtained clinical and bone ultrasonographic (US) data to identify elderly women at risk for osteoporotic fractures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was approved by the Swiss Ethics Committee. A prediction rule was computed by using data from a 3-year prospective multicenter study to assess the predictive value of heel-bone quantitative US in 6174 Swiss women aged 70-85 years. A quantitative US device to calculate the stiffness index at the heel was used. Baseline characteristics, known risk factors for osteoporosis and fall, and the quantitative US stiffness index were used to elaborate a predictive rule for osteoporotic fracture. Predictive values were determined by using a univariate Cox model and were adjusted with multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There were five risk factors for the incidence of osteoporotic fracture: older age (>75 years) (P < .001), low heel quantitative US stiffness index (<78%) (P < .001), history of fracture (P = .001), recent fall (P = .001), and a failed chair test (P = .029). The score points assigned to these risk factors were as follows: age, 2 (3 if age > 80 years); low quantitative US stiffness index, 5 (7.5 if stiffness index < 60%); history of fracture, 1; recent fall, 1.5; and failed chair test, 1. The cutoff value to obtain a high sensitivity (90%) was 4.5. With this cutoff, 1464 women were at lower risk (score, <4.5) and 4710 were at higher risk (score, >or=4.5) for fracture. Among the higher-risk women, 6.1% had an osteoporotic fracture, versus 1.8% of women at lower risk. Among the women who had a hip fracture, 90% were in the higher-risk group. CONCLUSION: A prediction rule obtained by using quantitative US stiffness index and four clinical risk factors helped discriminate, with high sensitivity, women at higher versus those at lower risk for osteoporotic fracture.

Direct three-dimensional myocardial strain tensor quantification and tracking using zHARP.

Images of myocardial strain can be used to diagnose heart disease, plan and monitor treatment, and to learn about cardiac structure and function. Three-dimensional (3D) strain is typically quantified using many magnetic resonance (MR) images obtained in two or three orthogonal planes. Problems with this approach include long scan times, image misregistration, and through-plane motion. This article presents a novel method for calculating cardiac 3D strain using a stack of two or more images acquired in only one orientation. The zHARP pulse sequence encodes in-plane motion using MR tagging and out-of-plane motion using phase encoding, and has been previously shown to be capable of computing 3D displacement within a single image plane. Here, data from two adjacent image planes are combined to yield a 3D strain tensor at each pixel; stacks of zHARP images can be used to derive stacked arrays of 3D strain tensors without imaging multiple orientations and without numerical interpolation. The performance and accuracy of the method is demonstrated in vitro on a phantom and in vivo in four healthy adult human subjects.

Gene-mediated restoration of normal myofiber elasticity in dystrophic muscles.

Dystrophin mediates a physical link between the cytoskeleton of muscle fibers and the extracellular matrix, and its absence leads to muscle degeneration and dystrophy. In this article, we show that the lack of dystrophin affects the elasticity of individual fibers within muscle tissue explants, as probed using atomic force microscopy (AFM), providing a sensitive and quantitative description of the properties of normal and dystrophic myofibers. The rescue of dystrophin expression by exon skipping or by the ectopic expression of the utrophin analogue normalized the elasticity of dystrophic muscles, and these effects were commensurate to the functional recovery of whole muscle strength. However, a more homogeneous and widespread restoration of normal elasticity was obtained by the exon-skipping approach when comparing individual myofibers. AFM may thus provide a quantification of the functional benefit of gene therapies from live tissues coupled to single-cell resolution.

Conduit artery compliance and distensibility are not necessarily reduced in hypertension.

The goal of this study was to investigate whether the elastic behavior of conduit arteries of humans or rats is altered as a result of concomitant hypertension. Forearm arterial cross-sectional compliance-pressure curves were determined noninvasively by means of a high precision ultrasonic echo-tracking device coupled to a photoplethysmograph (Finapres system) allowing simultaneous arterial diameter and finger blood pressure monitoring. Seventeen newly diagnosed hypertensive patients with a humeral blood pressure of 163/103 +/- 4.4/2.2 mm Hg (mean +/- SEM) and 17 age- and sex-matched normotensive controls with a humeral blood pressure of 121/77 +/- 3.2/1.9 mm Hg were included in the study. Compliance-pressure curves were also established at the carotid artery of 16-week-old anesthetized spontaneously hypertensive rats (n = 14) as well as Wistar-Kyoto normotensive animals (n = 15) using the same echo-tracking device. In these animals, intra-arterial pressure was monitored in the contralateral carotid artery. Mean blood pressures averaged 197 +/- 4 and 140 +/- 3 mm Hg in the hypertensive and normotensive rats, respectively. Despite the considerable differences in blood pressure, the diameter-pressure and cross-sectional compliance-pressure and distensibility-pressure curves were not different when hypertensive patients or animals were compared with their respective controls. These results suggest that the elastic behavior of a medium size muscular artery (radial) in humans and of an elastic artery (carotid) in rats is not necessarily altered by an increase in blood pressure.

A role for septins in the interaction between the Listeria monocytogenes INVASION PROTEIN InlB and the Met receptor.

Septins are conserved GTPases that form filaments and are required for cell division. During interphase, septin filaments associate with cellular membrane and cytoskeleton networks, yet the functional significance of these associations have, to our knowledge, remained unknown. We recently discovered that different septins, SEPT2 and SEPT11, regulate the InlB-mediated entry of Listeria monocytogenes into host cells. Here we address the role of SEPT2 and SEPT11 in the InlB-Met interactions underlying Listeria invasion to explore how septins modulate surface receptor function. We observed that differences in InlB-mediated Listeria entry correlated with differences in Met surface expression caused by septin depletion. Using atomic force microscopy on living cells, we show that septin depletion significantly reduced the unbinding force of InlB-Met interaction and the viscosity of membrane tethers at locations where the InlB-Met interaction occurs. Strikingly, the same order of difference was observed for cells in which the actin cytoskeleton was disrupted. Consistent with a proposed role of septins in association with the actin cytoskeleton, we show that cell elasticity is decreased upon septin or actin inactivation. Septins are therefore likely to participate in anchorage of the Met receptor to the actin cytoskeleton, and represent a critical determinant in surface receptor function.

The clinical use of quantitative ultrasound (QUS) in the detection and management of osteoporosis

For the detection and management of osteoporosis and osteoporosis-related fractures, quantitative ultrasound (QUS) is emerging as a relatively low-cost and readily accessible alternative to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) in certain circumstances. The following is a brief, but thorough review of the existing literature with respect to the use of QUS in 6 settings: 1) assessing fragility fracture risk; 2) diagnosing osteoporosis; 3) initiating osteoporosis treatment; 4) monitoring osteoporosis treatment; 5) osteoporosis case finding; and 6) quality assurance and control. Many QUS devices exist that are quite different with respect to the parameters they measure and the strength of empirical evidence supporting their use. In general, heel QUS appears to be most tested and most effective. Overall, some, but not all, heel QUS devices are effective assessing fracture risk in some, but not all, populations, the evidence being strongest for Caucasian females over 55 years old. Otherwise, the evidence is fair with respect to certain devices allowing for the accurate diagnosis of likelihood of osteoporosis, and generally fair to poor in terms of QUS use when initiating or monitoring osteoporosis treatment. A reasonable protocol is proposed herein for case-finding purposes, which relies on a combined assessment of clinical risk factors (CR.F) and heel QUS. Finally, several recommendations are made for quality assurance and control.

Comparison of aortic elasticity determined by cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging in obese versus lean adults.

The vascular properties of large vessels in the obese have not been adequately studied. We used cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging to quantify the cross-sectional area and elastic properties of the ascending thoracic and abdominal aorta in 21 clinically healthy obese young adult men and 25 men who were age-matched lean controls. Obese subjects had greater maximal cross-sectional area of the ascending thoracic aorta (984 +/- 252 vs 786 +/- 109 mm(2), p <0.01) and of the abdominal aorta (415 +/- 71 vs 374 +/- 51 mm(2), p <0.05). When indexed for height the differences persisted, but when indexed for body surface area, a significant difference between groups was found only for the maximal abdominal aortic cross-sectional area. The obese subjects also had decreased abdominal aortic elasticity, characterized by 24% lower compliance (0.0017 +/- 0.0004 vs 0.0021 +/- 0.0005 mm(2)/kPa/mm, p <0.01), 22% higher stiffness index beta (6.0 +/- 1.5 vs 4.9 +/- 0.7, p <0.005), and 41% greater pressure-strain elastic modulus (72 +/- 25 vs 51 +/- 9, p <0.005). At the ascending thoracic aorta, only the pressure-strain elastic modulus was different between obese and lean subjects (85 +/- 42 vs 65 +/- 26 kPa, respectively; p <0.05), corresponding to a 31% difference-but arterial compliance and stiffness index were not significantly different between groups. In clinically healthy young adult obese men, obesity is associated with increased cross-sectional aortic area and decreased aortic elasticity.

Diabetic neuropathy is a more important determinant of baroreflex sensitivity than carotid elasticity in type 2 diabetes.

The object of this study was to evaluate the contribution of carotid distensibilty on baroreflex sensitivity in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus with at least 2 additional cardiovascular risk factors. Carotid distensibility was measured bilaterally at the common carotid artery in 79 consecutive diabetic patients and 60 matched subjects without diabetes. Spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity assessment was obtained using time and frequency methods. Baroreflex sensitivity was lower in diabetic subjects as compared with nondiabetic control subjects (5.25+/-2.80 ms/mm Hg versus 7.55+/-3.79 ms/mm Hg; P<0.01, respectively). Contrary to nondiabetic subjects, diabetic subjects showed no significant correlation between carotid distensibility and baroreflex sensitivity (r2=0.08, P=0.04 and r2=0.04, P=0.13, respectively). In diabetic subjects, baroreflex sensitivity was significantly lower in subjects with peripheral neuropathy than in those with preserved vibration sensation (4.1+/-0.5 versus 6.1+/-0.4 ms/mm Hg, respectively; P=0.005). Age in nondiabetic subjects, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, peripheral or sensitive neuropathy, and carotid distensibility were introduced in a stepwise multivariate analysis to identify the determinants of baroreflex sensitivity. In diabetic patients, neuropathy is a more sensitive determinant of baroreflex sensitivity than the reduced carotid distensibility (stepwise analysis; F ratio=5.1, P=0.028 versus F ratio=1.9, P=0.16, respectively). In diabetic subjects with 2 additional cardiovascular risk factors, spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity is not related to carotid distensibility. Diabetic subjects represent a particular population within the spectrum of cardiovascular risk situations because of the marked neuropathy associated with their metabolic disorder. Therefore, neuropathy is a more significant determinant of baroreflex sensitivity than carotid artery elasticity in patients with type 2 diabetes.