On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theory

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Morphological Study of Intracardiac Signals as a New Tool to Track the Efficiency of Stepwise Ablation of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation

Intracardiac organization indices such as atrial fibrillation (AF) cycle length (AFCL) have been used to track the efficiency of stepwise catheter ablation (step-CA) of longstanding persistent AF, however with limited success. The morphology of AF activation waves reflects the underlying activation patterns. Its temporal evolution is a local organization indicator that could be potentially used for tracking the efficiency of step-CA. We report a new method for characterizing the structure of the temporal evolution of activation wave morphology. Using recurrence plots, novel organization indices are proposed. By computing their relative evolution during the first step of ablation vs baseline, we found that these new parameters are superior to AFCL to track the effect of step-CA "en route" to AF termination.

Cervical radiculopathy: Efficiency of CT-guided cervical facet joint corticosteroid injection : 47

Purpose: Cervical foraminal injection performed with a direct approach of the foramen may induce serious neurologic complications. Cervical facet joint (CFJ) injections are easier to perform and safe, and may diffuse in the epidural and foraminal spaces. We analyzed the efficiency and tolerance of CT-guided CFJ slow-acting corticosteroid injection in patients with radiculopathy related to disc herniation. Methods and materials: Pilot study included 17 patients presenting typical cervical radiculopathy related to disc herniation without relief of pain after medical treatment (one month duration). CFJ puncture was performed under CT guidance with a lateral approach. CT control of the CFJ opacification was performed after injections of contrast agent (1 ml), followed by slow-acting corticosteroid (25 mg). Main criteria for judgment was pain relief one month later (delta visual analogical scale VAS for 0 to 100 mm). Diffusion of iodinated contrast agent in the foramen was assessed by two radiologists in consensus. Results: Pain relief was significant at one month (delta VAS 22 ± 23 mm, p = 0.001) and 41% (7/17) of patients had pain relief more than 50%. In cases with foraminal diffusion, pain relief more than 50% occured in 5 patients (50%) and only in 2 patients (29%) in cases without foraminal diffusion. No complication occurred. Conclusion: CT-guided CFJ slow-acting corticosteroid injection is safe and provided good results at one month follow-up. It may be considered as an interesting percutaneous treatment in patients suffering from cervical radicular pain related to disc herniation.

MHC class II hierarchy of superantigen presentation predicts efficiency of infection with mouse mammary tumor virus.

Superantigens (SAgs) encoded by infectious mouse mammary tumor viruses (MMTVs) play a crucial role in the viral life cycle. Their expression by infected B cells induces a proliferative immune response by SAg-reactive T cells which amplifies MMTV infection. This response most likely ensures stable MMTV infection and transmission to the mammary gland. Since T cell reactivity to SAgs from endogenous Mtv loci depends on MHC class II molecules expressed by B cells, we have determined the ability of MMTV to infect various MHC congenic mice. We show that MHC class II I-E+ compared with I-E- mouse strains show higher levels of MMTV infection, most likely due to their ability to induce a vigorous SAg-dependent immune response following MMTV encounter. Inefficient infection is observed in MHC class II I-E- mice, which have been shown to present endogenous SAgs poorly. Therefore, during MMTV infection the differential ability of MHC class II molecules to form a functional complex with SAg determines the magnitude of the proliferative response of SAg-reactive T cells. This in turn influences the degree of T cell help provided to infected B cells and therefore the efficiency of amplification of MMTV infection.

The potential effects of social interactions on reproductive efficiency of stallions

The reproductive efficiency of stabled domestic stallions is often lower than what could be expected from observations in feral herds. In the wild, stallions typically live with mares in harem bands, with other stallions in bachelor bands, or occasionally in mixed-sex transitional bands. We, therefore, argue that permanent contact with mares may increase reproductive efficiency of stallions suffering from low libido and/or fertility. We also provide a summary of our present knowledge of natural conditions, management, and husbandry of domestic stallions, and of intra- and intersexual behavioral interactions in horses.

Genomic determinants of the efficiency of internal ribosomal entry sites of viral and cellular origin

Variation in cellular gene expression levels has been shown to be inherited. Expression is controlled at transcriptional and post-transcriptional levels. Internal ribosome entry sites (IRES) are used by viruses to bypass inhibition of cap-dependent translation, and by eukaryotic cells to control translation under conditions when protein synthesis is inhibited. We aimed at identifying genomic determinants of variability in IRES-mediated translation of viral [Encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV)] and cellular IRES [X-linked inhibitor-of-apoptosis (XIAP) and c-myc]. Bicistronic lentiviral constructs expressing two fluorescent reporters were used to transduce laboratory and B lymphoblastoid cell lines [15 CEPH pedigrees (n = 205) and 50 unrelated individuals]. IRES efficiency varied according to cell type and among individuals. Control of IRES activity has a significant genetic component (h(2) of 0.47 and 0.36 for EMCV and XIAP, respectively). Quantitative linkage analysis identified a suggestive locus (LOD 2.35) on chromosome 18q21.2, and genome-wide association analysis revealed of a cluster of SNPs on chromosome 3, intronic to the FHIT gene, marginally associated (P = 5.9E-7) with XIAP IRES function. This study illustrates the in vitro generation of intermediate phenotypes by using cell lines for the evaluation of genetic determinants of control of elements such as IRES.

Efficiency of coronary artery disease screening guidelines in asymptomatic and atypical chest pain type 2 diabetic patients

RESUME Objectifs. Évaluer la prévalence de maladie coronarienne chez les patients diabétiques de type 2 asymptomatiques ou avec angor atypique selon les recommandations américaines de l'American Diabetes Association et de l'American College of Cardiology. Méthodes. Cent cinquante-quatre patients diabétiques de type 2 asymptomatiques ou avec angor atypique et présentant au minimum 2 facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaires additionnels ont été dépistés par échocardiographie de stress (71%, n=109), scintigraphie myocardique de perfusion (26%, n=40) ou l'association des 2 examens (3%, n=5). Résultats. L'échocardiographie de stress s'est révélée positive chez 16 patients (14%) et 14 ont eu une coronarographie révélant des sténoses significatives chez 12 (86%). La scintigraphie myocardique de perfusion était positive chez 16 patients (36%). Huit patients ont eu une coronarographie et 4 (50%) présentaient des sténoses significatives. Au total, 31 patients (20%) ont montré des signes d'ischémie lors de l'examen non-invasif et 15 (10%) ont présenté des sténoses significatives à la coronarographie. Les facteurs prédictifs indépendants de la maladie coronarienne étaient le tabagisme (OR 6.5, p=0.05), la microalbuminurie (OR 3.9, p=0.03), ainsi que les souffles fémoraux (OR 17.1, p=0.008). Conclusions. En suivant les recommandations américaines, un patient sur cinq présentait une ischémie lors des examens non-invasifs, tandis que 1 sur 10 avait des sténoses significatives à la coronarographie. L'analyse multivariée suggère que des marqueurs des complications micro- et macro-vasculaires en combinaison avec des facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire classiques pourraient améliorer le pouvoir diagnostic de ces recommandations. SUMMARY Aims. We evaluated the prevalence of coronary artery disease in asymptomatic and atypical chest pain type 2 diabetic patients according to the American Diabetes Association and American College of Cardiology guidelines. Methods. Asymptomatic or atypical chest pain type 2 diabetic patients (n=154), with at least two additional cardiovascular risk factors, were screened for coronary artery disease using stress echocardiography (71%, n=109), myocardial perfusion imaging (26%, n=40) or both (3%, n=5). Results. Stress echocardiography was positive in 16 patients (14%) and 14 had a coronary angiography, revealing significant stenoses in 12 (86%). Myocardial perfusion imaging was positive in 16 patients (36%). Eight patients underwent angiography and 4 (50%) presented significant stenoses. Overall, 31 patients (20%) demonstrated signs of ischemia on non-invasive tests and 15 (10%) presented significant stenoses on coronary angiography. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease were smoking (OR 6.5, p=0.05), microalbuminuria (OR 3.9, p=0.03) and femoral murmur (OR 17.1, p=0.008). Conclusions. Following the guidelines, one in five diabetic patient presented ischemia on noninvasive tests, while one in ten presented significant coronary stenoses. Multivariate analysis suggests that adding markers of micro- and macro-vascular complications to classical cardiovascular risk factors may enhance the diagnostic efficiency of the guidelines.

Effect of water velocity on the uptake of polychlorinatedd biphenyls (PCBs) by silicone rubber (SR) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers: an assessment of the efficiency of performance reference compounds (PRCs) in river-like flow conditions

One aim of this study is to determine the impact of water velocity on the uptake of indicator polychlorinated biphenyls (iPCBs) by silicone rubber (SR) and low-density polyethylene (LDPE) passive samplers. A second aim is to assess the efficiency of performance reference compounds (PRCs) to correct for the impact of water velocity. SR and LDPE samplers were spiked with 11 or 12 PRCs and exposed for 6 weeks to four different velocities (in the range of 1.6 to 37.7 cm s−1) in river-like flow conditions using a channel system supplied with river water. A relationship between velocity and the uptakewas found for each iPCB and enables to determine expected changes in the uptake due to velocity variations. For both samplers, velocity increases from 2 to 10 cm s−1, 30 cm s−1 (interpolated data) and 100 cm s−1 (extrapolated data) lead to increases of the uptake which do not exceed a factor of 2, 3 and 4.5, respectively. Results also showed that the influence of velocity decreased with increasing the octanol-water coefficient partition (log Kow) of iPCBs when SR is used whereas the opposite effect was observed for LDPE. Time-weighted average (TWA) concentrations of iPCBs in water were calculated from iPCB uptake and PRC release. These calculations were performed using either a single PRC or all the PRCs. The efficiency of PRCs to correct the impact of velocity was assessed by comparing the TWA concentrations obtained at the four tested velocities. For SR, a good agreement was found among the four TWA concentrations with both methods (average RSD b 10%). Also for LDPE, PRCs offered a good correction of the impact of water velocity (average RSD of about 10 to 20%). These results contribute to the process of acceptance of passive sampling in routine regulatory monitoring programs.

The First Christian Historian. Writing the "Acts of the Apostles"

As the first historian of Christianity, Luke's reliability is vigorously disputed among scholars. The author of the Acts is often accused of being a biased, imprecise, and anti-Jewish historian who created a distorted portrait of Paul. Daniel Marguerat tries to avoid being caught in this true/false quagmire when examining Luke's interpretation of history. Instead he combines different tools - reflection upon historiography, the rules of ancient historians and narrative criticism - to analyse the Acts and gauge the historiographical aims of their author. Marguerat examines the construction of the narrative, the framing of the plot and the characterization, and places his evaluation firmly in the framework of ancient historiography, where history reflects tradition and not documentation. This is a fresh and original approach to the classic themes of Lucan theology: Christianity between Jerusalem and Rome, the image of God, the work of the Spirit, the unity of Luke and the Acts.

Explaining Fiscal Balances with a Simultaneous Equation Model of Revenue and Expenditure : A Case Study of Swiss Cantons Using Panel Data

Empirical literature on the analysis of the efficiency of measures for reducing persistent government deficits has mainly focused on the direct explanation of deficit. By contrast, this paper aims at modeling government revenue and expenditure within a simultaneous framework and deriving the fiscal balance (surplus or deficit) equation as the difference between the two variables. This setting enables one to not only judge how relevant the explanatory variables are in explaining the fiscal balance but also understand their impact on revenue and/or expenditure. Our empirical results, obtained by using a panel data set on Swiss Cantons for the period 1980-2002, confirm the relevance of the approach followed here, by providing unambiguous evidence of a simultaneous relationship between revenue and expenditure. They also reveal strong dynamic components in revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance. Among the significant determinants of public fiscal balance we not only find the usual business cycle elements, but also and more importantly institutional factors such as the number of administrative units, and the ease with which people can resort to political (direct democracy) instruments, such as public initiatives and referendum.

Improved accuracy of co-morbidity coding over time after the introduction of ICD-10 administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Co-morbidity information derived from administrative data needs to be validated to allow its regular use. We assessed evolution in the accuracy of coding for Charlson and Elixhauser co-morbidities at three time points over a 5-year period, following the introduction of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10), coding of hospital discharges.METHODS: Cross-sectional time trend evaluation study of coding accuracy using hospital chart data of 3'499 randomly selected patients who were discharged in 1999, 2001 and 2003, from two teaching and one non-teaching hospital in Switzerland. We measured sensitivity, positive predictive and Kappa values for agreement between administrative data coded with ICD-10 and chart data as the 'reference standard' for recording 36 co-morbidities.RESULTS: For the 17 the Charlson co-morbidities, the sensitivity - median (min-max) - was 36.5% (17.4-64.1) in 1999, 42.5% (22.2-64.6) in 2001 and 42.8% (8.4-75.6) in 2003. For the 29 Elixhauser co-morbidities, the sensitivity was 34.2% (1.9-64.1) in 1999, 38.6% (10.5-66.5) in 2001 and 41.6% (5.1-76.5) in 2003. Between 1999 and 2003, sensitivity estimates increased for 30 co-morbidities and decreased for 6 co-morbidities. The increase in sensitivities was statistically significant for six conditions and the decrease significant for one. Kappa values were increased for 29 co-morbidities and decreased for seven.CONCLUSIONS: Accuracy of administrative data in recording clinical conditions improved slightly between 1999 and 2003. These findings are of relevance to all jurisdictions introducing new coding systems, because they demonstrate a phenomenon of improved administrative data accuracy that may relate to a coding 'learning curve' with the new coding system.

Experimental manipulation of colony genetic diversity had no effect on short-term task efficiency in the Argentine ant Linepithema humile

Genetic diversity might increase the performance of social groups by improving task efficiency or disease resistance, but direct experimental tests of these hypotheses are rare. We manipulated the level of genetic diversity in colonies of the Argentine ant Linepithema humile, and then recorded the short-term task efficiency of these experimental colonies. The efficiency of low and high genetic diversity colonies did not differ significantly for any of the following tasks: exploring a new territory, foraging, moving to a new nest site, or removing corpses. The tests were powerful enough to detect large effects, but may have failed to detect small differences. Indeed, observed effect sizes were generally small, except for the time to create a trail during nest emigration. In addition, genetic diversity had no statistically significant impact on the number of workers, males and females produced by the colony, but these tests had low power. Higher genetic diversity also did not result in lower variance in task efficiency and productivity. In contrast to genetic diversity, colony size was positively correlated with the efficiency at performing most tasks and with colony productivity. Altogether, these results suggest that genetic diversity does not strongly improve short-term task efficiency in L. humile, but that worker number is a key factor determining the success of this invasive species.