A collaborative approach for incorporating forensic case data into crime investigation using criminal intelligence analysis and visualisation

There is an increasing awareness that the articulation of forensic science and criminal investigation is critical to the resolution of crimes. However, models and methods to support an effective collaboration between these partners are still poorly expressed or even lacking. Three propositions are borrowed from crime intelligence methods in order to bridge this gap: (a) the general intelligence process, (b) the analyses of investigative problems along principal perspectives: entities and their relationships, time and space, quantitative aspects and (c) visualisation methods as a mode of expression of a problem in these dimensions. Indeed, in a collaborative framework, different kinds of visualisations integrating forensic case data can play a central role for supporting decisions. Among them, link-charts are scrutinised for their abilities to structure and ease the analysis of a case by describing how relevant entities are connected. However, designing an informative chart that does not bias the reasoning process is not straightforward. Using visualisation as a catalyser for a collaborative approach integrating forensic data thus calls for better specifications.

Genetic survey of "spinturnix sp" (Acari, Mesostigmata) and their bat hosts in Western Palearctic

SUMMARY : The coevolution between two intimately associated organisms, like host and parasite, is a widely investigated theme in evolutionary biology. Recently, the use of genetic data in the study of host-parasite systems evidences that the genetic information from some parasites can complement genetic data from their hosts and thus may help to better understand their host's evolutionary history. Phylogenetic and population genetic aspects of bat parasites have been poorly investigated. Spinturnicid mites are highly specialized ectoparasites, exclusively associated with bats and therefore represent an ideal model to extant our knowledge on bat and parasite biology and on their coevolutionary history. In this thesis, I developed several molecular markers (mitochondrial DNA) to compare the genetic patterns of Spinturnix mites with their bat hosts at different levels. The molecular co-phylogeny between Spinturnix sp. and their bat hosts suggests a partial cospeciation and the occurrence of failure to speciate events and multiple host switches. Thus, Spinturnix mites do not exactly mirror the phylogenetic pattern of their hosts, despite their intimate association. Similar roosting habits of the hosts seem to promote host switches between different species, as far as ecological conditions are favourable. The phylogeographic study of the Maghrebian bat M. punicus in the Mediterranean area confirms the presence of M. punicus in North Africa, Corsica and Sardinia and highlights that islands and mainland are genetically highly divergent. The comparison between the parasitic mite S. myoti and the Maghrebian bat suggests that the phylogeographic pattern of the mite is moulded by its host, with open water as main barrier for host and parasite dispersal. Moreover, the unique presence of a European S. myoti lineage on M. punicus from Corsica strongly suggests the former presence of mouse-eared bats (M. myotis and/or M. blythii) in Corsica. By highlighting the probable presence of a nowadays locally extinct host species, S. myoti may represent a good proxy for inferring complex evolutionary history of bat hosts. Finally, population genetic surveys of S. myoti and S. bechsteinii suggest that these mites benefit from close contacts between individuals during the mating season and/or hibernation to disperse among remote colonies. The contrasted genetic patterns of these two distinct bat-mite systems evidence that bat social structure is a determinant factor of the genetic structure of mite populations. Altogether, this PhD thesis demonstrates the usefulness of parasites to gather information about their bat hosts. In addition, my results illustrate how different ecological and biological characteristics of bat species allow the emergence of a surprising diversity in the genetic patterns of the parasites, which may contribute to the diversification and speciation of parasites. RESUME : La co-évolution entre deux organismes intimement liés, comme un parasite et son hôte, fait partie des questions largement étudiées en biologie évolutive. Récemment, l'utilisation de données génétique dans l'étude des interactions hôte-parasite a montré que l'information génétique de certains parasites peut compléter les données génétiques de l'hôte et ainsi peut éclairer l'histoire évolutive de leur hôte. Très peu études ont étudié les interactions entre les chauves-souris et leurs parasites d'un point de vue moléculaire. Les acariens du genre Spinturnix sont des ectoparasites très spécialisés exclusivement associés aux chauves-souris. Ils représentent donc un model idéal pour élargir nos connaissances tant sur l'écologie des parasites de chauves-souris que sur leur coévolution. Durant cette thèse, plusieurs marqueurs moléculaires (ADN mitochondrial) ont été développés pour ainsi comparer la distribution de la variation génétique des parasites du genre Spinturnix avec celle de leurs hôtes, et ceci à différents niveaux. Tout d'abord, la co-phylogénie moléculaire entre les espèces de Spinturnix et les leurs hôtes révèle une co-spéciation partielle ainsi que la présence d'événement de non spéciation et de transferts horizontaux. Ces parasites ne reflètent donc pas entièrement l'histoire évolutive de leurs hôtes, malgré leurs intimes associations. La cohabitation de plusieurs espèces de chauves-souris dans un même gîte permet aux parasites un transfert entre différentes espèces, atténuant ainsi leur degré de co-spéciation. Deuxièmement, l'étude phylogéographique du marin du Maghreb dans le bassin Méditerranéen confirme sa présence en Afrique du Nord, en Corse et en Sardaigne. La comparaison avec un de ses parasites S. myoti suggère que la répartition génétique de S. myoti est façonnée par celle de leurs hôtes, avec les étendues d'eau comme barrière principale tant à la dispersion de l'hôte que de son parasite. De plus, la présence unique d'une lignée européenne de ces parasites sur des marins du Maghreb de Corse suggère fortement la présence du grand ou petit marin en Corse dans le passé. En reflétant la présence potentielle à un endroit donné d'une espèce de chauve-souris actuellement disparue, S. myoti peut représenter une bonne alternative pour comprendre l'histoire évolutive complexe des chauves-souris. Finalement, l'étude des structures génétiques des populations des parasites S. myoti et S. bechsteinii suggère que les contacts corporels entre chauves-souris durant la saison de reproduction ou l'hibernation peuvent permettre la dispersion des parasites entre des colonies éloignées géographiquement. La différence de structure génétique entre ces deux associations particulières montre que la structure génétique des populations de parasites dépend fortement des traits d'histoire de vie de son hôte. Dans l'ensemble, cette thèse démontre l'importance des parasites pour amener des informations sur leurs hôtes, les chauves-souris. Elle illustre aussi comment les différences écologique et biologique des différentes espèces de chauves-souris peuvent amener une étonnante diversité de structure génétique au sein de populations de parasites, ce qui peut peut-être contribuer à la diversification et à la spéciation des parasites.

Conceptual models for designing information systems supporting the strategic analysis of technology environments

1 6 STRUCTURE OF THIS THESIS -Chapter I presents the motivations of this dissertation by illustrating two gaps in the current body of knowledge that are worth filling, describes the research problem addressed by this thesis and presents the research methodology used to achieve this goal. -Chapter 2 shows a review of the existing literature showing that environment analysis is a vital strategic task, that it shall be supported by adapted information systems, and that there is thus a need for developing a conceptual model of the environment that provides a reference framework for better integrating the various existing methods and a more formal definition of the various aspect to support the development of suitable tools. -Chapter 3 proposes a conceptual model that specifies the various enviromnental aspects that are relevant for strategic decision making, how they relate to each other, and ,defines them in a more formal way that is more suited for information systems development. -Chapter 4 is dedicated to the evaluation of the proposed model on the basis of its application to a concrete environment to evaluate its suitability to describe the current conditions and potential evolution of a real environment and get an idea of its usefulness. -Chapter 5 goes a step further by assembling a toolbox describing a set of methods that can be used to analyze the various environmental aspects put forward by the model and by providing more detailed specifications for a number of them to show how our model can be used to facilitate their implementation as software tools. -Chapter 6 describes a prototype of a strategic decision support tool that allow the analysis of some of the aspects of the environment that are not well supported by existing tools and namely to analyze the relationship between multiple actors and issues. The usefulness of this prototype is evaluated on the basis of its application to a concrete environment. -Chapter 7 finally concludes this thesis by making a summary of its various contributions and by proposing further interesting research directions.

A multilevel approach to understanding circadian rhythmicity : social and sleep-dependent effects in ants and mice

Résumé françaisLa majorité des organismes vivants sont soumis à l'alternance du jour et de la nuit, conséquence de la rotation de la terre autour de son axe. Ils ont développé un système interne de mesure du temps, appelé horloge circadienne, leur permettant de s'adapter et de synchroniser leur comportement et leur physiologie aux cycles de lumière. Cette dernière est considérée comme étant le signal majeur entraînant l'horloge interne et. par conséquent, les rythmes journaliers d'éveil et de sommeil. Outre sa régulation circadienne, le sommeil est contrôlé par un processus homéostatique qui détermine son besoin. La contribution de ces deux processus dans le fonctionnement cellulaire du cerveau n'a pas encore été investiguée. La mesure de l'amplitude ainsi que de la prévalence des ondes delta de l'EEG (activité delta) constitue un index très fiable du besoin de sommeil. Il a été démontré que cette activité est génétiquement déterminée et associée à un locus de trait quantitatif situé sur le chromosome 13 de la souris.Grâce à des expériences de privation de sommeil et d'analyses de transcriptome du cerveau dans trois souches de souris présentant diverses réponses à la privation de sommeil, nous avons trouvé que Homerla, localisé dans la région d'intérêt du chromosome 13, est le meilleur marqueur du besoin de sommeil. Homerla est impliqué dans la récupération de l'hyperactivité neuronale induite par le glutamate, grâce à son effet tampon sur le calcium intracellulaire. Une fonction fondamentale du sommeil pourrait donc être de protéger le cerveau et de lui permettre de récupérer après une hyperactivité neuronale imposée par une veille prolongée.De plus, nous avons montré que 2032 transcrits sont exprimés rythmiqueraent dans le cerveau de la souris, parmi lesquels seulement 391 le restent après que les animaux aient été privés de sommeil à différents moments au cours des 24 heures. Cette observation montre clairement que la plupart des changements rythmiques au niveau du transcriptome dépendent du sommeil et non de l'horloge circadienne et souligne ainsi l'importance du sommeil dans la physiologie des mammifères.La plupart des expériences concernant les rythmes circadiens ont été réalisées sur des individus isolés en négligeant l'effet du contexte social sur les comportements circadiens. Les espèces sociales, telles que les fourmis, se caractérisent par une division du travail où une répartition des tâches s'effectue entre ses membres. De plus, certaines d'entre elles doivent être pratiquées en continu comme les soins au couvain tandis que d'autres requièrent une activité rythmique comme le fourragement. Ainsi la fourmi est un excellent modèle pour l'étude de 1 influence du contexte social sur les rythmes circadiens.A ces fins, nous avons décidé d'étudier les rythmes circadiens chez une espèce de fourmi Camponotus fellah et de caractériser au niveau moléculaire son horloge circadienne. Nous avons ainsi développé un système vidéo permettant de suivre l'activité locomotrice de tous les individus d'une colonie. Nos résultats montrent que, bien que la plupart des fourmis soient arythmiques à l'intérieur de la colonie, elles développent d'amples rythmes d'activité en isolation. De plus, ces rythmes disparaissent presque aussitôt que la fourmi est réintroduite dans la colonie. Cette rythmicité observée en isolation semble être générée par l'horloge circadienne car elle persiste en condition constante (obscurité totale). Nous avons ensuite regardé si cette apparente arythmie observée dans la colonie résultait d'un effet masquant des interactions sociales sur les rythmes circadiens d'activité. Nos résultats suggèrent que l'horloge interne est fonctionnelle dans la colonie mais que l'expression de ses rythmes au niveau comportemental est inhibée par les interactions sociales. Les analyses moléculaires du statut de l'horloge dans différents contextes sociaux sont actuellement en cours. Le contexte social semble donc un déterminant majeur du comportement circadien chez la fourmi.AbstractAlmost all living organisms on earth are subjected to the alternance of day and night re-sulting from the rotation of the earth around its axis. They have evolved with an internal timing system, termed the circadian clock, enabling them to adapt and synchronize their behavior and physiology to the daily changes in light and related environmental parame¬ters. Light is thought to be the major cue entraining the circadian clock and consequently the rhythms of rest/activity. In addition to its circadian dependent timing, sleep is reg¬ulated by a homeostatic process that determines its need. The contribution of these two processes in the cellular functioning of the brain has not yet been considered. A highly reliable index of the homeostatic process of sleep is the measure of the amplitude and prevalence of the EEG delta waves (delta activity). It has been shown that sleep need, measured by delta activity, is genetically determined and associated with a Quantitative Trait Locus (QTL) located on the mouse chromosome 13. By using sleep deprivation and brain transcriptome profiling in three inbred mouse strains showing different responses to sleep loss, we found that Homerla, localized within this QTL region is the best transcrip¬tional marker of sleep need. Interestingly Homerla is primarily involved in the recovery from glutamate-induced neuronal hyperactivity by its buffering effect on intracellular cal¬cium. A fundamental function of sleep may therefore reside in the protection and recovery of the brain from a neuronal hyperactivity imposed by prolonged wakefulness.Moreover, time course gene expression experiments showed that 2032 brain tran¬scripts present a rhythmic variation, but only 391 of those remain rhythmic when mice are sleep deprived at four time points around the clock. This finding clearly suggests that most changes in gene transcription over the day are sleep-wake dependent rather than clock dependent and underlines the importance of sleep in mammalian physiology.In the second part of this PhD, I was interested in the social influence on circadian behavior. Most experiments done in the circadian field have been performed on isolated individuals and have therefore ignored the effect of the social context on circadian behav-ior. Eusocial insect species such as ants are characterized by a division of labor: colony tasks are distributed among individuals, some of them requiring continuous activity such as nursing or rhythmic ones such as foraging. Thus ants represent a suitable model to study the influence of the social context on the circadian clock and its output rhythms.The aim of this part was to address the effect of social context on circadian rhythms in the ant species Camponotus fellah and to characterize its circadian clock at the molecu¬lar level. We therefore developed a video tracking system to follow the locomotor activity of all individuals in a colony. Our results show that most ants are arrhythmic within the colony, but develop, when subjected to social isolation, strong rhythms of activity that intriguingly disappear when individuals are reintroduced into the colony. The rhythmicity observed in isolated ants seems to be driven by the circadian clock as it persists under constant conditions (complete darkness). We then tested whether the apparent arrhyth- micity in the colony stemmed from a masking effect of social interactions on circadian rhythms. Indeed, we found that circadian clocks of ants in the colony are functional but their expression at the behavioral level is inhibited by social interactions. The molecular assessment of the circadian clock functional state in the different social context is still under investigation. Our results suggest that social context is a major determinant of circadian behavior in ants.

Maternal and paternal contributions to pathogen resistance dependent on development stage in a whitefish (Salmonidae)

It is often assumed that maternal and paternal contributions to offspring phenotype change over the lifetime of an individual. However, studies on parental effects typically suffer from the problems that heritabilities and maternal environmental effects are difficult to separate, and that both may depend on environmental factors and developmental stage. In order to experimentally disentangle maternal from paternal contributions and the likely effects of developmental stage from ecological effects, we sampled a natural population of the whitefish Coregonus palaea, used gametes for full-factorial in vitro fertilizations, raised over 10000 of the resulting offspring singly at controlled conditions, and exposed them at different points during embryonic development to one of two strains of Pseudomonas fluorescens that differed in their virulence characteristics (only one caused mortality, while both delayed hatching and reduced growth). Vulnerability to infection increased markedly over embryo development. This change coincided with a distinct shift in the importance of maternal to additive genetic effects on survival. Timing of exposure also affected the variance components for hatching time and larval length, but in a less consistent direction than the variance components for mortality. No significant genetic variation was found for any reaction norms across time points of exposure, indicating a uniformity among genotypes in how susceptibility changed over development. Phenotypes were also typically correlated across time points, which could constrain the evolution of the reaction norms. Our experiment demonstrates that the relative maternal and paternal contributions to susceptibility to an infection, and hence the evolutionary potential to respond to pathogen-induced selection, depends not only on the kind of pathogenic stress but also on the timing of the challenge.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part II. Statistical and ethical considerations on familial searching.

Familial searching consists of searching for a full profile left at a crime scene in a National DNA Database (NDNAD). In this paper we are interested in the circumstance where no full match is returned, but a partial match is found between a database member's profile and the crime stain. Because close relatives share more of their DNA than unrelated persons, this partial match may indicate that the crime stain was left by a close relative of the person with whom the partial match was found. This approach has successfully solved important crimes in the UK and the USA. In a previous paper, a model, which takes into account substructure and siblings, was used to simulate a NDNAD. In this paper, we have used this model to test the usefulness of familial searching and offer guidelines for pre-assessment of the cases based on the likelihood ratio. Siblings of "persons" present in the simulated Swiss NDNAD were created. These profiles (N=10,000) were used as traces and were then compared to the whole database (N=100,000). The statistical results obtained show that the technique has great potential confirming the findings of previous studies. However, effectiveness of the technique is only one part of the story. Familial searching has juridical and ethical aspects that should not be ignored. In Switzerland for example, there are no specific guidelines to the legality or otherwise of familial searching. This article both presents statistical results, and addresses criminological and civil liberties aspects to take into account risks and benefits of familial searching.

Functional and molecular evolutionary analysis of the "Brevix Radix" gene family in mono-and dicotyledonous plants

ABSTRACTIn contrast to animals, plants cannot move from their place of birth and, therefore, need to adapt to their particular habitat in order to survive. Thus, plant development is remarkably plastic, making plants an ideal system for the isolation of genes that account for intraspecific natural variation and possibly environmental adaptation. However, to date, this approach mostly identified null alleles and missed mutations with subtle effects. For instance, BREVIS RADIX (BRX) has been isolated as a key regulator of root growth through a naturally occurring loss-of-function allele in the Arabidopsis thaliana accession Uk-1 and is the founding member of a highly-conserved plant-specific gene family.In this work, we show that a strong selective pressure is acting on the BRX gene family and dates back before the monocot-dicot divergence. However, functional diversification is observed mainly in dicotyledon BRX family genes and is correlated with acceleration in the evolutionary rates in the N-terminal regions. Population genetic data revealed that BRX is highly conserved across Arabidopsis accessions and presents signatures of adaptation. Interestingly, a seven amino acid deletion polymorphism in BRX sequence was found in a few accessions, which seems to be responsible for their enhanced primary root growth. Nevertheless, BRX might not only be active in the root, as suggested by its expression in the shoot. Indeed, leaves and cotyledons of brx mutants are significantly smaller than wild- type. This phenotype is a direct consequence of the absence of BRX function in the shoot rather than an indirect effect of an altered root system growth. Interestingly, cotyledons of brx plants reflect the same physiological defects as the root. Moreover, phenotypes in BRX gain-of-function plants, such as epinastic leaves and increased epidermal cell size, could be associated with an increase in leaf brassinosteroid content.Collectively, these results indicate that BRX contributes to local adaptation by ubiquitously regulating plant growth, probably through the modulation of brassinosteroid biosynthesis.RÉSUMÉContrairement à la plupart des animaux, les plantes ne peuvent se mouvoir et doivent ainsi s'adapter à leur environnement pour survivre. Pour cette raison, elles représentent un système idéal pour l'identification de gènes contribuant à la variation naturelle intra- spécifique, ainsi qu'à l'adaptation. Cependant, cette approche a, jusqu'à présent, surtout permis d'isoler des allèles nuls et non des mutations conférant des effets plus subtiles. C'est le cas du gène Β REVIS RADIX (BRX), un régulateur clé de la croissance racinaire, qui a été identifié grâce à un allèle non-fonctionnel présent dans l'accession naturelle d'Arabidopsis thaliana Uk-1. BRX et ses homologues des plantes mono- et dicotylédones forment une famille très conservée et spécifique aux plantes.Dans ce travail, nous démontrons que la famille de gènes BRX est soumise à une forte pression de sélection qui remonte avant la divergence entre mono- et dicotylédones. Cependant, une diversification fonctionnelle a été observée chez les gènes des dicotylédones et corrèle avec une accélération de la vitesse d'évolution dans leur région N- terminale. Une analyse génétique de différentes accessions naturelles d'Arabidopsis a révélé que BRX est hautement conservé et présente des signatures d'adaptation. Remarquablement, un polymorphisme de délétion de sept acides aminés a été détecté dans quelques accessions et a pour conséquence une plus forte croissance de la racine primaire. Néanmoins, il semble que le rôle de BRX ne se limite pas qu'à la racine, comme indiqué par son expression dans les parties aériennes de la plante. En effet, les mutants brx présentent des cotylédons et des feuilles significativement plus petits que le type sauvage, une conséquence directe de l'absence d'activité de BRX dans ces organes. Nous avons aussi noté que les cotylédons des mutants brx, à l'instar des racines, ont une perception altérée de l'auxine et peuvent être complémentés par l'application exogène de brassinostéroïdes. De plus, dans des plantes présentant un gain de fonction BRX, les feuilles sont épinastiques et les cellules de leur épiderme plus grandes. Ces phénotypes sont accompagnés d'une augmentation de la concentration de brassinostéroïdes dans les feuilles. Conjointement, ces résultats démontrent que BRX contribue à une adaptation locale de la plante par la régulation générale de sa croissance, probablement en modulant la biosynthèse des brassinostéroïdes.

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Late Labradorian metamorphism and anorthosite-granitoid intrusion, Cape-Caribou River allochthon, Grenville Province, Labrador - Evidence from U-Pb geochronology

In the Cape Caribou River allochthon (CCRA), metaigneous and gneissic units occur as a shallowly plunging synform in the hanging wall of the Grand Lake thrust system (GLTS), a Grenvillian structure that forms the boundary between the Mealy Mountains and Groswater Bay terranes. The layered rocks of the CCRA are cut by a stockwork of monzonite dykes related to the Dome Mountain suite and by metadiabase-amphibolite dykes that probably form part of the ca. 1380 Ma Mealy swarm. The mafic dykes appear to postdate much of the development of subhorizontal metamorphic layering within the lower parts of the CCRA. The uppermost (least metamorphosed) units of the CCRA, the North West River anorthosite-metagabbro and the Dome Mountain monzonite suite, have been dated at 1625 +/- 6 and 1626 +/- 2 Ma, respectively. An amphibolite unit that concordantly underlies the anorthosite-metagabbro and is intruded discordantly by monzonite dykes has given metamorphic ages of 1660 +/- 3 and 1631 +/- 2 Ma. Granitoid gneisses that form the lowest level of the CCRA have given a migmatization age of 1622 +/- 6 Ma. The effects of Grenvillian metamorphism become apparent in the lower levels of the allochthon where gneisses, amphibolite, and mafic dykes have given new generation zircon ages of 1008 +/- 2, 1012 +/- 3, and 1011 +/- 3 Ma, respectively. A posttectonic pegmatite has also given zircon and monazite ages of 1016(-3)(+7) and 1013 +/- 3 Ma, respectively. Although these results indicate new growth of Grenvillian zircon, this process was generally not accompanied by penetrative deformation or melting. Thus, the formation of gneissic fabrics and the overall layered nature of the lower CCRA are a result primarily of Labradorian (1660-1620 Ma) tectonism and intrusion, and probably reflect early movement on an ancestral GLTS. Grenvillian heating and metamorphism (up to granulite facies) was strongly concentrated towards the base of the CCRA and probably occurred during northwestward thrusting of the allochthon over the Groswater Bay terrane.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Linking life-history traits, ecology, and niche breadth evolution in north american eriogonoids (polygonaceae).

Abstract Macroevolutionary and microevolutionary studies provide complementary explanations of the processes shaping the evolution of niche breadth. Macroevolutionary approaches scrutinize factors such as the temporal and spatial environmental heterogeneities that drive differentiation among species. Microevolutionary studies, in contrast, focus on the processes that affect intraspecific variability. We combine these perspectives by using macroevolutionary models in a comparative study of intraspecific variability. We address potential differences in rates of evolution of niche breadth and position in annual and perennial plants of the Eriogonoideae subfamily of the Polygonaceae. We anticipated higher rates of evolution in annuals than in perennials owing to differences in generation time that are paralleled by rates of molecular evolution. Instead, we found that perennial eriogonoid species present greater environmental tolerance (wider climate niche) than annual species. Niche breadth of perennial species has evolved two to four times faster than in annuals, while niche optimum has diversified more rapidly among annual species than among perennials. Niche breadth and average elevation of species are correlated. Moreover, niche breadth increases more rapidly with mean species elevation in perennials than in annuals. Our results suggest that both environmental gradients and life-history strategy influence rates and patterns of niche breadth evolution.

A Delphi study on National PICU nursing research priorities in Australia and New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of evidence to direct and support nursing practice in the specialty of paediatric intensive care (PIC). The development of national PIC nursing research priorities may facilitate the process of undertaking clinical research and translating evidence into practice. PURPOSE: To (a) identify research priorities for the care of patients and their family as well as for the professional needs of PIC nurses, (b) foster nursing research collaboration, (c) develop a research agenda for PIC nurses. METHODS: Over 13 months in 2007-2008, a three-round questionnaire, using the Delphi technique, was sent to all specialist level registered nurses working in Australian and New Zealand PICUs. This method was used to identify and prioritise nursing research topics. Content analysis was used to analyse Round I data and descriptive statistics for Round II and III data. RESULTS: In Round I, 132 research topics were identified, with 77 research priorities (mdn>6, mean MAD(median) 0.68±0.01) identified in subsequent rounds. The top nine priorities (mean>6 and median>6) included patient issues related to neurological care (n=2), pain/sedation/comfort (n=3), best practice at the end of life (n=1), and ventilation strategies (n=1), as well as two priorities related to professional issues about nurses' stress/burnout and professional development needs. CONCLUSION: The research priorities identified reflect important issues related to critically ill patients and their family as well as to the nurses caring for them. These priorities can be used for the development of a research agenda for PIC nursing in Australia and New Zealand.

Splitting rivers at their seams: bifurcations and avulsion

River bifurcations are critical but poorly understood elements of many geomorphological systems. They are integral elements of alluvial fans, braided rivers, fluvial lowland plains, and deltas and control the partitioning of water and sediment through these systems. Bifurcations are commonly unstable but their lifespan varies greatly. In braided rivers bars and channels migrate, split and merge at annual or shorter timescales, thereby creating and abandoning bifurcations. This behaviour has been studied mainly by geomorphologists and fluid dynamicists. Bifurcations also exist during avulsion, the process of a river changing course on a floodplain or in a delta, which may take 102103 years and has been studied mainly by sedimentologists. This review synthesizes our current understanding of bifurcations and brings together insights from different research communities and different environmental settings. We consider the causes and initiation of bifurcations and avulsion, the physical mechanisms controlling bifurcation and avulsion evolution, mathematical and numerical modelling of these processes, and the possibility of stable bifurcations. We end the review with some open questions. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Heritability of left ventricular structure and function in Caucasian families.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to investigate the heritability as well as genetic and environmental correlations of left ventricular (LV) structural and functional traits in complex pedigrees of a Caucasian population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We randomly recruited 459 white European subjects from 52 families (50% women; mean age 45 years). LV structure was measured by M-mode and 2D echocardiography and LV function was measured by conventional Doppler and tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). Other measurements included blood pressure, anthropometric, and biochemical measurements. We estimated the heritability of LV traits while adjusting for covariables, including sex, age, body height and weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and heart rate. With full adjustment, heritability of LV mass was 0.23 (P= 0.025). The TDI-derived mitral annular velocities Ea and Aa showed moderate heritability (h(2)= 0.36 and 0.53, respectively), whereas the mitral inflow A peak had weak heritability (h(2) = 0.25) and the E peak was not heritable (h(2) = 0.11). We partitioned the total phenotypic correlation when it reached significance, into a genetic and an environmental component. The genetic correlations were 0.61 between the E and Ea peaks and 0.90 between the A and Aa peaks. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated moderate heritability for LV mass as well as the mitral annular Ea and Aa peaks. We also found significant genetic correlations between the E and Ea peaks and between the A and Aa peaks. Our current findings support the ongoing research to map and detect genetic variants that contribute to the variation in LV mass and other LV structural and functional phenotypes.