Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Effects of sarcoptic mange on the behaviour of the red fox and influence on other fox-born zoonoses in Geneva, Switzerland

Résumé : Une épidémie de gale sarcoptique (Sarcoptes scabiei) touche le canton de Genève depuis 1996. Nous avons étudié l'impact de cette maladie sur différents caractères comportementaux du renard roux (Vulpes vulpes) : l'écologie alimentaire, les comportements spatiaux et l'activité, ainsi que les contacts sociaux. Nous avons également évalué si la gale pouvait influencer la composition et la transmission de la communauté helminthique intestinale du renard. En effet, cette espèce est l'hôte de parasites qui sont liés à des zoonoses importantes, en particulier le ténia échinocoque du renard (Echinococcus multilocularis) pour lequel Genève est considérée comme une zone de haute endémie. Durant 5 années, des carcasses de renards ont été récoltées sur l'ensemble du canton. Nous les avons disséquées et avons conservé différents échantillons pour des analyses ultérieures. Des données sur le poids, l'âge et le statut reproductif des femelles ont ainsi pu être obtenues. Les contenus stomacaux ont été analysés pour déterminer le régime alimentaire, les intestins pour collecter des helminthes, des échantillons de sang pour faire des sérologies et des échantillons de peau pour récupérer les sarcoptes. Des renards sauvages ont également été capturés et équipés de colliers émetteurs afin de déterminer leur activité et leur utilisation de l'espace. Finalement, nous avons réalisé des affûts sur des terriers et des observations nocturnes à l'aide d'un détecteur thermique afin d'étudier les contacts sociaux. Nous avons ensuite considéré tous ces aspects pour comparer les renards galeux aux individus sains. Trois catégories de gale ont été prises en compte selon l'importance de l'infection. L'épidémie a traversé le canton en 8 ans environ et elle a provoqué une forte diminution des populations de renard. Les animaux malades étaient caractérisés par un poids réduit, ils utilisaient des domaines vitaux réduits et présentaient un rythme d'activité irrégulier. En ce qui concerne le régime alimentaire, les renards galeux avaient souvent des estomacs vides ou contenant peu d'aliments d'origine animale. Cette réduction de l'alimentation ne semble pas seulement être liée à des capacités de prédation réduite, mais également à un désintérêt face à la nourriture. Tous les changements de comportement cités étaient plus marqués chez les animaux soumis à une forte infestation. Dix taxons d'helminthes ont été identifiés dans les intestins des renards analysés. Deux d'entre eux représentent un risque de santé publique: Echinococcus multilocularis et Toxocara carvis. Pour ces helminthes, nous n'avons pas identifié de différences de prévalence entre les renards galeux et les animaux sains, mais la charge parasitaire était significativement supérieure chez les individus galeux, en particulier ceux souffrant d'une infestation importante. Ceci est probablement lié à une susceptibilité accrue des individus qui présentent une condition physique amoindrie et des défenses immunitaire affaiblies. Selon nos résultats, nous pouvons conclure que la gale induit des changements comportementaux importants et que ces changements ont une influence potentielle sur la transmission de la gale elle-même, mais également sur la transmission du reste de la communauté parasitaire de l'hôte. Les individus qui souffrent d'une infestation importante sont susceptibles de provoquer une contamination de l'environnement accrue en ce qui concerne des helminthes pouvant provoquer des zoonoses. La gale apparaît être un facteur à ne pas négliger dans le cadre de la gestion de la faune sauvage, mais également en ce qui concerne des problématiques de santé publique. Summary An epidemic outbreak of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) has struck the canton of Geneva since 1996. The impact of the disease on various behavioural traits of the main host, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), was investigated: feeding ecology, spatial behaviour and activity, and social contacts. We also evaluated if mange might have an influence on the composition and transmission of the intestinal helminth community of foxes. Indeed, this species is host of parasites with potential zoonotic importance, particularly the fox tapeworm (Echinococcus multilocularis) for which Geneva is reported as endemic area. During 5 years, red fox carcasses have been collected throughout the canton. They were then dissected and various samples conserved for further analysis. Data on weight, age, and reproductive status of females were obtained. Stomach content were analysed for diet analysis, intestines to recover helminths, blood to proceed to ELISAs and skin samples to check for the presence of Sarcoptes mites. Further, wild foxes were captured and fitted with transmitters in order to determine their activity pattern and space use. Finally, we proceeded to direct observations at dens and using a thermal imaging sensor at night to gain information about social contacts. A comparison between healthy and mangy foxes was made for all these aspects. Three categories of mangy foxes were considered from moderately to severely infected. The epidemic wave crossed the canton in about 8 years and induced a significant reduction in fox densities. Mangy individuals appeared to have reduced body weights, to use more restricted home ranges and exhibited an irregular activity pattern. Regarding food, sick foxes often had empty stomachs and consumed less food items of animal origin. The reduction in food intake appeared to be linked not only to a reduced ability to hunt, but also to a reduced interest in food. The changes observed were particularly pronounced in individuals with severe infestation. Ten helminth taxa were recovered from the intestines on the analysed fox carcasses. Two of them have an importance with regard to human public health: Echinococcus multilocularis and Toxocara cams. The prevalence of these helminths did not differ between healthy and mangy foxes, however the worm burden was significantly higher in mangy foxes, particularly those with severe mange. This is probably linked to an increased susceptibility in individuals with a reduced body condition and weakened immune defences. From our observations, we can conclude that mange induces pronounced behavioural changes in the red fox, and that those changes influence the transmission risks of mange itself, but also of the rest of the parasite community of the host. Individuals with severe mange are for example likely to increase the environment contamination of free living stages of helminths with zoonotic importance. Mange appears thus to represent a factor not to be neglected for the management of wild species and for public health issues.

Seasonal fluctuations of bacterial community diversity in agricultural soil and experimental validation by laboratory disturbance experiments.

Natural fluctuations in soil microbial communities are poorly documented because of the inherent difficulty to perform a simultaneous analysis of the relative abundances of multiple populations over a long time period. Yet, it is important to understand the magnitudes of community composition variability as a function of natural influences (e.g., temperature, plant growth, or rainfall) because this forms the reference or baseline against which external disturbances (e.g., anthropogenic emissions) can be judged. Second, definition of baseline fluctuations in complex microbial communities may help to understand at which point the systems become unbalanced and cannot return to their original composition. In this paper, we examined the seasonal fluctuations in the bacterial community of an agricultural soil used for regular plant crop production by using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism profiling (T-RFLP) of the amplified 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene diversity. Cluster and statistical analysis of T-RFLP data showed that soil bacterial communities fluctuated very little during the seasons (similarity indices between 0.835 and 0.997) with insignificant variations in 16S rRNA gene richness and diversity indices. Despite overall insignificant fluctuations, between 8 and 30% of all terminal restriction fragments changed their relative intensity in a significant manner among consecutive time samples. To determine the magnitude of community variations induced by external factors, soil samples were subjected to either inoculation with a pure bacterial culture, addition of the herbicide mecoprop, or addition of nutrients. All treatments resulted in statistically measurable changes of T-RFLP profiles of the communities. Addition of nutrients or bacteria plus mecoprop resulted in bacteria composition, which did not return to the original profile within 14 days. We propose that at less than 70% similarity in T-RFLP, the bacterial communities risk to drift apart to inherently different states.

Immersion communautaire à Lausanne : une autre façon d'enseigner la santé publique [Community immersion in Lausanne: a different approach to teaching public health?].

Teaching community medicine represents a significant challenge for medical schools, which tend to struggle to promote interest in the issue among students. In 2009, the Lausanne medical school introduced a "community immersion" module specifically designed to address the issue. The new module requires students working in small groups under the supervision of a tutor to investigate a health question of their choice. The investigation involves conducting interviews with stakeholders (health professionals, patients, politicians, etc.), carrying out a survey, and presenting the results of the investigation in a "congress". An external evaluation showed that the objectives of the initiative had been largely achieved, with an increase of interest in community medicine for over 50% of students (based on a total cohort of 150 students) and a high level of satisfaction for over 90% of students and tutors. This paper presents the results of the initiative and its use for promoting community-oriented medicine.

Soil tillage affects the community structure of mycorrhizal fungi in maize roots

In this study we tested whether communities of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) colonizing the roots of maize (Zea mays L.) were affected by soil tillage practices (plowing, chiseling, and no-till) in a long-term field experiment carried out in Tanikon (Switzerland). AMF were identified in the roots using specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) markers that had been developed for the AMF previously isolated from the soils of the studied site. A nested PCR procedure with primers of increased specificity (eukaryotic, then, fungal, then AMF species or. species-grouop specific) was used. Sequencing of amplified DNA confirmed that the DNA obtained from the maize roots was of AMF origin. Presence of particular AMF species or species-group was scored as a presence of a DNA product after PCR with specific primers. We also used single-strand conformation polymorphism analysis (SSCP), of amplified DNA samples to-check if the amplification of the DNA from maize roots matched the expected profile for a particular AMF isolate with a given specific primer pair. Presence of the genus Scutellospora, in maize roots was strongly reduced in plowed and chiseled soils. Fungi from the suborder Glomineae were more prevalent colonizers of maize roots growing in plowed soils, but were also present in the roots from other tillage treatments. These changes in community of AMF colonizing maize roots might be due to (1), the differences in tolerance to the tillage-induced disruption of the hyphae among the different AMF species, (2) changes in nutrient content of the soil, (3) changes in microbial activity, or (4) changes in weed populations in response to soil tillage. This is the first report on community composition of AMF in the roots of a field-grown crop plant (maize) as affected by soil tillage.

The nine-year sustained cost-containment impact of swiss pilot physicians-pharmacists quality circles.

BACKGROUND: Six pioneer physicians-pharmacists quality circles (PPQCs) located in the Swiss canton of Fribourg (administratively corresponding to a state in the US) were under the responsibility of 6 trained community pharmacists moderating the prescribing process of 24 general practitioners (GPs). PPQCs are based on a multifaceted collaborative process mediated by community pharmacists for improving compliance with clinical guidelines within GPs' prescribing practices. OBJECTIVE: To assess, over a 9-year period (1999-2007), the cost-containment impact of the PPQCs. METHODS: The key elements of PPQCs are a structured continuous quality improvement and education process; local networking; feedback of comparative and detailed data regarding costs, drug choice, and frequency of prescribed drugs; and structured independent literature review for interdisciplinary continuing education. The data are issued from the community pharmacy invoices to the health insurance companies. The study analyzed the cost-containment impact of the PPQCs in comparison with GPs working in similar conditions of care without particular collaboration with pharmacists, the percentage of generic prescriptions for specific cardiovascular drug classes, and the percentage of drug costs or units prescribed for specific cardiovascular drugs. RESULTS: For the 9-year period, there was a 42% decrease in the drug costs in the PPQC group as compared to the control group, representing a $225,000 (USD) savings per GP only in 2007. These results are explained by better compliance with clinical and pharmacovigilance guidelines, larger distribution of generic drugs, a more balanced attitude toward marketing strategies, and interdisciplinary continuing education on the rational use of drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The PPQC work process has yielded sustainable results, such as significant cost savings, higher penetration of generics and reflection on patient safety, and the place of "new" drugs in therapy. The PPQCs may also constitute a solid basis for implementing more comprehensive collaborative programs, such as medication reviews, adherence-enhancing interventions, or disease management approaches.

A satisfaction survey conducted on patients of a medico-legal consultation.

In 2006, a medico-legal consultation service devoted to adult victims of interpersonal violence was set up at the Lausanne University Hospital Centre, Switzerland: the Violence Medical Unit. Patients are received by forensic nurses for support, forensic examination (in order to establish medical report) and community orientation. In 2008, a telephone survey was conducted on patients. The objectives of the survey were to estimate the degree of patients' satisfaction and to document the use of the medical report by six questions. Among the 476 patients admitted to the VMU in 2007, 132 were interviewed. Their overall satisfaction was high with an average mark of 8.7/10. The medical report was used extensively by the interviewed victims (81%) for its primary function - to be produced as evidence. As the consultations are financed by public funds, these results were of interest for advocacy of long-lasting financial support.

Rapid LC-MS/MS quantification of the major benzodiazepines and their metabolites on dried blood spots using a simple and cost-effective sample pretreatment.

BACKGROUND: Dried blood spots (DBS) sampling has gained popularity in the bioanalytical community as an alternative to conventional plasma sampling, as it provides numerous benefits in terms of sample collection and logistics. The aim of this work was to show that these advantages can be coupled with a simple and cost-effective sample pretreatment, with subsequent rapid LC-MS/MS analysis for quantitation of 15 benzodiazepines, six metabolites and three Z-drugs. For this purpose, a simplified offline procedure was developed that consisted of letting a 5-µl DBS infuse directly into 100 µl of MeOH, in a conventional LC vial. RESULTS: The parameters related to the DBS pretreatment, such as extraction time or internal standard addition, were investigated and optimized, demonstrating that passive infusion in a regular LC vial was sufficient to quantitatively extract the analytes of interest. The method was validated according to international criteria in the therapeutic concentration ranges of the selected compounds. CONCLUSION: The presented strategy proved to be efficient for the rapid analysis of the selected drugs. Indeed, the offline sample preparation was reduced to a minimum, using a small amount of organic solvent and consumables, without affecting the accuracy of the method. Thus, this approach enables simple and rapid DBS analysis, even when using a non-DBS-dedicated autosampler, while lowering the costs and environmental impact.

Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Diagnosis of endocrine disease: High-yield thyroid fine-needle aspiration cytology: an update focused on ancillary techniques improving its accuracy.

Thyroid fine-needle aspiration (FNA) cytology is a fast growing field. One of the most developing areas is represented by molecular tests applied to cytological material. Patients that could benefit the most from these tests are those that have been diagnosed as 'indeterminate' on FNA. They could be better stratified in terms of malignancy risk and thus oriented with more confidence to the appropriate management. Taking in to consideration the need to improve and keep high the yield of thyroid FNA, professionals from various fields (i.e. molecular biologists, endocrinologists, nuclear medicine physicians and radiologists) are refining and fine-tuning their diagnostic instruments. In particular, all these developments aim at increasing the negative predictive value of FNA to improve the selection of patients for diagnostic surgery. These advances involve terminology, the application of next-generation sequencing to thyroid FNA, the use of immunocyto- and histo-chemistry, the development of new sampling techniques and the increasing use of nuclear medicine as well as molecular imaging in the management of patients with a thyroid nodule. Herein, we review the recent advances in thyroid FNA cytology that could be of interest to the 'thyroid-care' community, with particular focus on the indeterminate diagnostic category.

Le médecin au centre: pour une approche de l'expérience vécue [Toward the lived experience of the physician].

For manyyears, a major focus of interest has been the patient, in the context of a constantly changing society and increasingly complex medical practices. We propose to shift this focus on the physician, who is entangled in a similar, but less evident way. In these three articles, we explore, in succession, the lived experience of the contemporary physician, the ethos which brings together the medical community, and the education of the future physician, using research projects currently under way within the Service of Liaison Psychiatry at Lausanne University Hospital. In this first article, we particularly raise the question of what is the lived experience of the physician and sketch the outline of <physician-centered> research.

A Social Network Analysis of Twitter: Mapping the Digital Humanities Community

Defining digital humanities might be an endless debate if we stick to the discussion about the boundaries of this concept as an academic "discipline". In an attempt to concretely identify this field and its actors, this paper shows that it is possible to analyse them through Twitter, a social media widely used by this "community of practice". Based on a network analysis of 2,500 users identified as members of this movement, the visualisation of the "who's following who?" graph allows us to highlight the structure of the network's relationships, and identify users whose position is particular. Specifically, we show that linguistic groups are key factors to explain clustering within a network whose characteristics look similar to a small world.

Teaching clinical anatomy of the female pelvic floor to undergraduate students: A critical review of nevralgic points

Pelvic floor anatomy is complex and its three-dimensional organization is often difficult to understand for both undergrad- uate and postgraduate students. Here, we focused on several critical points that need to be considered when teaching the perineum. We have to deal with a mixed population of students and with a variety of interest. Yet, a perfect knowledge of the pelvic floor is the basis for any gynecologist and for any surgical intervention. Our objectives are several-fold; i) to estab- lish the objectives and the best way of teaching, ii) to identify and localize areas in the female pelvic floor that are suscepti- ble to generate problems in understanding the three-dimensional organization, iii) to create novel approaches by respecting the anatomical surroundings, and iv) prospectively, to identify elements that may create problems during surgery i.e. to have a closer look at nerve trajectories and on compression sites that may cause neuralgia or postoperative pain. A feedback from students concludes that they have difficulties to assimilate this much information, especially the different imaging tech- niques. Eventually, this will lead to a severe selection of what has to be taught and included in lectures or practicals. Another consequence is that more time to study prosected pelves needs to be given.

Genome of an arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus provides insight into the oldest plant symbiosis.

The mutualistic symbiosis involving Glomeromycota, a distinctive phylum of early diverging Fungi, is widely hypothesized to have promoted the evolution of land plants during the middle Paleozoic. These arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) perform vital functions in the phosphorus cycle that are fundamental to sustainable crop plant productivity. The unusual biological features of AMF have long fascinated evolutionary biologists. The coenocytic hyphae host a community of hundreds of nuclei and reproduce clonally through large multinucleated spores. It has been suggested that the AMF maintain a stable assemblage of several different genomes during the life cycle, but this genomic organization has been questioned. Here we introduce the 153-Mb haploid genome of Rhizophagus irregularis and its repertoire of 28,232 genes. The observed low level of genome polymorphism (0.43 SNP per kb) is not consistent with the occurrence of multiple, highly diverged genomes. The expansion of mating-related genes suggests the existence of cryptic sex-related processes. A comparison of gene categories confirms that R. irregularis is close to the Mucoromycotina. The AMF obligate biotrophy is not explained by genome erosion or any related loss of metabolic complexity in central metabolism, but is marked by a lack of genes encoding plant cell wall-degrading enzymes and of genes involved in toxin and thiamine synthesis. A battery of mycorrhiza-induced secreted proteins is expressed in symbiotic tissues. The present comprehensive repertoire of R. irregularis genes provides a basis for future research on symbiosis-related mechanisms in Glomeromycota.

Combined clonotyping and gene signatures of individual tumor-reactive CD8 T-cells define their functional relevance following peptide vaccination in melanoma patients

Novel cancer vaccines are capableto efficiently induce and boost humantumor antigen specific T-cells. However,the properties of these CD8T-cells are only partially characterized.For in depth investigation ofT-cells following Melan-A/MART-1peptide vaccination in melanoma patients,we conducted a detailed prospectivestudy at the single cell level.We first sorted individual human naiveand effector CD8 T-cells from peripheralblood by flow cytometry, andtested a modified RT-PCR protocolincluding a global amplification ofexpressed mRNAs to obtain sufficientcDNAfromsingle cells.We successfullydetected the expression ofseveral specific genes of interest evendown to 106-fold dilution (equivalentto 10-5 cell). We then analyzed tumor-specific effector memory (EM)CD8T-cell subpopulations ex vivo, assingle cells from vaccinated melanomapatients. To elucidate the hallmarksof effective immunity the genesignatures were defined by a panel ofgenes related to effector functions(e.g. IFN-, granzyme B, perforin),and individual clonotypes were identifiedaccording to the expression ofdistinct T-cell receptors (TCR). Usingthis novel single cell analysis approach,we observed that T-cell differentiationis clonotype dependent,with a progressive restriction in TCRBV clonotype diversity from EMCD28pos to EMCD28neg subsets. However,the effector function gene imprintingis clonotype-independent,but dependent on differentiation,since it correlates with the subset oforigin (EMCD28pos or EMCD28neg). We also conducted a detailedcomparative analysis after vaccinationwith natural vs. analog Melan-Apeptide. We found that the peptideused for vaccination determines thefunctional outcome of individualT-cell clonotypes, with native peptideinducing more potent effector functions.Yet, selective clonotypic expansionwith differentiation was preservedregardless of the peptide usedfor vaccination. In summary, the exvivo single cell RT-PCR approach ishighly sensitive and efficient, andrepresents a reliable and powerfultool to refine our current view of molecularprocesses taking place duringT-cell differentiation.