The application of trend surface models to the analysis of time factors in Swiss cancer mortality.

To study different temporal components on cancer mortality (age, period and cohort) methods of graphic representation were applied to Swiss mortality data from 1950 to 1984. Maps using continuous slopes ("contour maps") and based on eight tones of grey according to the absolute distribution of rates were used to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. Further, progressively more complex regression surface equations were defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age/cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific mortality rate). General patterns of trends in cancer mortality were thus identified, permitting definition of important cohort (e.g., upwards for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, or downwards for stomach) or period (e.g., downwards for intestines or thyroid cancers) effects, besides the major underlying age component. For most cancer sites, even the lower order (1st to 3rd) models utilised provided excellent fitting, allowing immediate identification of the residuals (e.g., high or low mortality points) as well as estimates of first-order interactions between the three factors, although the parameters of the main effects remained still undetermined. Thus, the method should be essentially used as summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in (cancer) mortality, although they cannot conceptually solve the inherent problem of identifiability of the three components.

Sex differentials in Swiss cancer mortality.

Swiss national cancer mortality statistics from 1951 to 1984 and survival rates from the Vaud Cancer Registry datafile over the period 1974-1980 were considered in terms of sex ratios. Overall age-standardized cancer mortality for population aged 35-64 showed only a moderate decline in males (from 230 to 221/100,000), but a substantial one in females (from 191 to 152/100,000). Mortality from most cancer sites (except gallbladder and thyroid) was persistently higher in males, the male/female ratio ranging between 1.2 for intestines, skin, brain and lympho-reticular neoplasms to about 2 for stomach or pancreas, up to 7-10 for lung and cancers related to tobacco and alcohol (mouth or pharynx, oesophagus). The sex ratio for lung cancer increased between the early 1950's and the mid 1960's, but noticeably declined thereafter, probably reflecting trends in smoking prevalence among subsequent generations of Swiss males and females. Less obvious is the substantial increase in the sex ratio for liver cancer (from 1.6 to 5.7), which was evident in younger middle age, too. Population-based cancer survival statistics indicated that for most common sites rates were appreciably higher in females than in males. Thus, better survival explains part of the advantage in cancer mortality for women. This can be related to earlier diagnosis, better compliance or responsiveness to treatment, although there is no obvious single interpretation for this generalized more favourable pattern in females.

The decline in breast cancer mortality in Europe: an update (to 2009).

We updated trends in breast cancer mortality in Europe up to the late 2000's. In the EU, age-adjusted (world standard population) breast cancer mortality rates declined by 6.9% between 2002 and 2006, from 17.9 to 16.7/100,000. The largest falls were in northern European countries, but more recent declines were also observed in central and eastern Europe. In 2007, all major European countries had overall breast cancer rates between 15 and 19/100,000. In relative terms, the declines in mortality were larger at younger age (-11.6% at age 20-49 years between 2002 and 2007 in the EU), and became smaller with advancing age (-6.6% at age 50-69, -5.0% at age 70-79 years). The present report confirms and further quantifies the persisting steady fall in breast cancer mortality in Europe over the last 25-30 years, which is mainly due to advancements in the therapy.

Patterns and trends in esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in Europe (1980-2011) and predictions to 2015

BACKGROUND: Over the last few decades, esophageal cancer incidence and mortality trends varied substantially across Europe, with important differences between sexes and the two main histological subtypes, squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (EAC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: To monitor recent esophageal cancer mortality trends and to compute short-term predictions in the European Union (EU) and selected European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) for 1980-2011. We also analyzed incidence trends and relative weights of ESCC and EAC across Europe using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents. RESULTS: Long-term decreasing trends were observed for male esophageal cancer mortality in several southern and western European countries, whereas in central Europe mortality increased until the mid-1990s and started to stabilize or decline over the last years. In some eastern and northern countries, the rates were still increasing. Mortality among European women remained comparatively low and showed stable or decreasing trends in most countries. Between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009, esophageal cancer mortality declined by 7% (from 5.34 to 4.99/100 000) in EU men, and by 3% (from 1.12 to 1.09/100 000) in EU women. Predictions to 2015 show persistent declines in mortality rates for men in the EU overall, and stable rates for EU women, with rates for 2015 of 4.5/100 000 men (about 22 300 deaths) and 1.1/100 000 women (about 7400 deaths). In northern Europe, EAC is now the predominant histological type among men, while for European women ESCC is more common and corresponding rates are still increasing in several countries. CONCLUSION(S): The observed trends reflect the variations in alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and overweight across European countries.

Effects of age, birth cohort and period of death on Swiss cancer mortality, 1951-1984.

Swiss death certification data over the period 1951-1984 for total cancer mortality and 30 major cancer sites in the population aged 25 to 74 years were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters to isolate the effects of birth cohort, calendar period of death and age. The overall pattern of total cancer mortality in males was stable for period values and showed some moderate decreases in cohort values restricted to the generations born after 1930. Cancer mortality trends were more favourable in females, with steady, though moderate, declines in both cohort and period values. According to the estimates from the model, the worst affected generation for male lung cancer was that born around 1910, and a flattening of trends or some moderate decline was observed for more recent cohorts, although this decline was considerably more limited than in other European countries. There were decreases in cohort and period values for stomach, intestine and oesophageal cancer in both sexes and (cervix) uteri in females. Increases were observed in both cohort and period trends for pancreas and liver in males and for several other neoplasms, including prostate, brain, leukaemias and lymphomas, restricted, however, for the latter sites, to the earlier cohorts and hence partly attributable to improved diagnosis and certification in the elderly. Although age values for lung cancer in females were around 10-times lower than in males, upward trends in female lung cancer cohort values were observed in subsequent cohorts and for period values from the late 1960's onwards. Therefore, future trends in female lung cancer mortality should continue to be monitored. The application of these age/period/cohort models thus provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends, although it cannot replace careful inspection of single age-specific rates.

Cancer mortality in Europe, 2005-2009, and an overview of trends since 1980.

BACKGROUND: After a peak in the late 1980s, cancer mortality in Europe has declined by ∼10% in both sexes up to the early 2000s. We provide an up-to-date picture of patterns and trends in mortality from major cancers in Europe. METHODS: We analyzed cancer mortality data from the World Health Organization for 25 cancer sites and 34 European countries (plus the European Union, EU) in 2005-2009. We computed age-standardized rates (per 100 000 person-years) using the world standard population and provided an overview of trends since 1980 for major European countries, using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: Cancer mortality in the EU steadily declined since the late 1980s, with reductions by 1.6% per year in 2002-2009 in men and 1% per year in 1993-2009 in women. In western Europe, rates steadily declined over the last two decades for stomach and colorectal cancer, Hodgkin lymphoma, and leukemias in both sexes, breast and (cervix) uterine cancer in women, and testicular cancer in men. In central/eastern Europe, mortality from major cancer sites has been increasing up to the late 1990s/early 2000s. In most Europe, rates have been increasing for lung cancer in women and for pancreatic cancer and soft tissue sarcomas in both sexes, while they have started to decline over recent years for multiple myeloma. In 2005-2009, there was still an over twofold difference between the highest male cancer mortality in Hungary (235.2/100 000) and the lowest one in Sweden (112.9/100 000), and a 1.7-fold one in women (from 124.4 in Denmark to 71.0/100 000 in Spain). CONCLUSIONS: With the major exceptions of female lung cancer and pancreatic cancer in both sexes, in the last quinquennium, cancer mortality has moderately but steadily declined across Europe. However, substantial differences across countries persist, requiring targeted interventions on risk factor control, early diagnosis, and improved management and pharmacological treatment for selected cancer sites.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer.

Childhood cancer mortality in America, Asia, and Oceania, 1970 through 2007.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 4 decades, childhood cancer mortality declined in most developed areas of the world. However, scant information is available from middle-income and developing countries. The authors analyzed and compared patterns in childhood cancer mortality in 24 developed and middle-income countries in America, Asia, and Oceania between 1970 and 2007. METHODS: Childhood age-standardized annual mortality rates were derived from the World Health Organization (WHO) database for all neoplasms, bone and kidney cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and leukemias. RESULTS: Since 1970, rates for all childhood cancers dropped from approximately 8 per 100,000 boys to 3 per 100,000 boys and from 6 per 100,000 girls to 2 per 100,000 girls in North America and Japan. Latin American countries registered rates of approximately 5 per 100,000 boys and 4 per 100,000 girls for 2005 through 2007, similar to the rates registered in more developed areas in the early 1980s. Similar patterns were observed for leukemias, for which the mortality rates were 0.81 per 100,000 boys and 0.55 per 100,000 girls in North America, 0.86 per 100,000 boys and 0.68 per 100,000 girls in Japan, and 1.98 per 100,000 boys and 1.65 per 100,000 girls in Latin America for 2005 through 2007. Bone cancer rates for 2005 through 2007 were approximately 2-fold higher in Argentina than in the United States. During the same period, Mexico registered the highest rate for kidney cancer and Colombia registered the highest rate for NHL, whereas the lowest rates were registered by Japan for kidney and by Japan and the United States for NHL. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in the adoption of current integrated treatment protocols in Latin American and other lower- and middle-income countries worldwide would avoid a substantial proportion of childhood cancer deaths.

La mortalité par tumeur maligne chez les ouvriers d'une fabrique de caoutchouc en Suisse: étude épidémiologique, 1955-1975. [Cancer mortality among the workers of a Swiss rubber goods factory. Epidemiological study, 1955-75].

In an epidemiologic investigation of mortality among workers in a Swiss rubber-goods factory the cancer mortality in the period 1955-1975 has been studied in all male workers active on 1 January 1955 in (a) a rubber-goods factory and (b) a munitions factory, the latter as reference population. The two groups numbered some 1000 each. Both factories were located in the same Central Swiss village where no other industry was present. Mortality in each industry is compared with that in the Swiss population in general (SMR) and the mortalities of the two industries are compared with each other. The results tend to confirm that rubber workers are exposed to a higher risk of cancer mortality. Three particular types of cancer are briefly discussed: cancer of the stomach, of the lower urinary tract, and glioblastoma.

Recent trends in colorectal cancer mortality in Europe.

Colorectal cancer mortality has been declining over the last two decades in Europe, particularly in women, the trends being, however, different across countries and age groups. We updated to 2007 colorectal cancer mortality trends in Europe using data from the World Health Organization (WHO). Rates were analyzed for the overall population and separately in young, middle-age and elderly populations. In the European Union (EU), between 1997 and 2007 mortality from colorectal cancer declined by around 2% per year, from 19.7 to 17.4/100,000 men (world standardized rates) and from 12.5 to 10.5/100,000 women. Persisting favorable trends were observed in countries of western and northern Europe, while there were more recent declines in several countries of eastern Europe, including the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia particularly in women (but not Romania and the Russian Federation). In 2007, a substantial excess in colorectal cancer mortality was still observed in Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia in men (rates over 25/100,000), and in Hungary, Norway, Denmark and Slovakia in women (rates over 14/100,000). Colorectal mortality trends were more favorable in the young (30-49 years) from most European countries, with a decline of ∼2% per year since the early 1990s in both men and women from the EU. The recent decreases in colorectal mortality rates in several European countries are likely due to improvements in (early) diagnosis and treatment, with a consequent higher survival from the disease. Interventions to further reduce colorectal cancer burden are, however, still warranted, particularly in eastern European countries.

Trends in cancer mortality in Switzerland, 1951-1984.

Trends in overall age-standardized, truncated (35-64 years) and age-specific (40 to 49) cancer death certification rates in Switzerland from 1951 to 1984 were analysed. There was a substantial rise in lung cancer mortality in males, with an over 100% increase in overall rates. Thus, in the early 1980's, lung cancer alone accounted for 26% of all cancer deaths in Swiss males. However, male lung cancer rates tended to level off in subsequent cohorts starting from younger middle age in the late 1960's. In females, lung cancer mortality was approximately ten times lower than in males, but rates had been consistently rising since the late 1960's in all age groups. Declines were observed for several neoplasms of the digestive tract: besides stomach (overall decline 68% in males, 77% in females), trends were markedly downwards also for oesophageal cancer in males (-57%), and there was some moderate fall for intestinal sites in both sexes and gallbladder in females. Several trends for other common neoplasms were similar to those observed in other developed countries, such as the declines for (cervix) uteri, the general stability for breast cancer, or the increases in pancreatic cancer and (melanoma) of the skin. A peculiar feature of Swiss data, besides the marked decline in oesophageal cancer in males, was the consistent downward trend in thyroid cancer for both sexes. Thus, overall age-standardized total cancer mortality over the last three decades was moderately upwards in Swiss males, but consistently downwards in females. Male trends were more reassuring in middle age, chiefly in consequence of the flattening in lung cancer rises. Possible interpretations of these trends in terms of aetiological hypotheses (i.e., changes in alcohol drinking and improvements in diet for oesophageal cancer, or reduced prevalence of iodine deficiency for thyroid neoplasms) are discussed.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2012.

BACKGROUND: Estimating current cancer mortality figures is important for defining priorities for prevention and treatment.Materials and methods:Using logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint models on mortality and population data from the World Health Organization database, we estimated numbers of deaths and age-standardized rates in 2012 from all cancers and selected cancer sites for the whole European Union (EU) and its six more populated countries. RESULTS: Cancer deaths in the EU in 2012 are estimated to be 1 283 101 (717 398 men and 565 703 women) corresponding to standardized overall cancer death rates of 139/100 000 men and 85/100 000 women. The fall from 2007 was 10% in men and 7% in women. In men, declines are predicted for stomach (-20%), leukemias (-11%), lung and prostate (-10%) and colorectal (-7%) cancers, and for stomach (-23%), leukemias (-12%), uterus and colorectum (-11%) and breast (-9%) in women. Almost stable rates are expected for pancreatic cancer (+2-3%) and increases for female lung cancer (+7%). Younger women show the greatest falls in breast cancer mortality rates in the EU (-17%), and declines are expected in all individual countries, except Poland. CONCLUSION: Apart for lung cancer in women and pancreatic cancer, continuing falls are expected in mortality from major cancers in the EU.

An age-period-cohort analysis of gastric cancer mortality from 1950 to 2007 in Europe.

PURPOSE: To analyze the components of the favorable trends in gastric cancer in Europe. METHODS: From official certified deaths from gastric cancer and population estimates for 42 countries of the European geographical region, during the period 1950 to 2007, age-standardized death rates (World Standard Population) were computed, and an age-period-cohort analysis was performed. RESULTS: Central and Northern countries with lower rates in the 2005 to 2007 period, such as France (5.28 and 1.93/100,000, men and women respectively) and Sweden (4.49 and 2.21/100,000), had descending period and cohort effects that decreased steeply from the earliest cohorts until those born in the 1940s, to then stabilize. Former nonmarket economy countries had mortality rates greater than 20/100,000 men and 10/100,000 women, and displayed a later start in the cohort effect fall, which continued in the younger cohorts. Mortality remained high in some countries of Southern and Eastern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: The decrease in gastric cancer mortality was observed in both cohort and period effects but was larger in the cohorts, suggesting that the downward trends are likely to persist in countries with higher rates. In a few Western countries with very low rates an asymptote appears to have been reached for cohorts born after the 1940s, particularly in women.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015 : does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.