Simulations in evolution. II. Relative fitness and the propagation of mutants.

In Neo-Darwinism, variation and natural selection are the two evolutionary mechanisms which propel biological evolution. Our previous article presented a histogram model [1] consisting in populations of individuals whose number changed under the influence of variation and/or fitness, the total population remaining constant. Individuals are classified into bins, and the content of each bin is calculated generation after generation by an Excel spreadsheet. Here, we apply the histogram model to a stable population with fitness F(1)=1.00 in which one or two fitter mutants emerge. In a first scenario, a single mutant emerged in the population whose fitness was greater than 1.00. The simulations ended when the original population was reduced to a single individual. The histogram model was validated by excellent agreement between its predictions and those of a classical continuous function (Eqn. 1) which predicts the number of generations needed for a favorable mutation to spread throughout a population. But in contrast to Eqn. 1, our histogram model is adaptable to more complex scenarios, as demonstrated here. In the second and third scenarios, the original population was present at time zero together with two mutants which differed from the original population by two higher and distinct fitness values. In the fourth scenario, the large original population was present at time zero together with one fitter mutant. After a number of generations, when the mutant offspring had multiplied, a second mutant was introduced whose fitness was even greater. The histogram model also allows Shannon entropy (SE) to be monitored continuously as the information content of the total population decreases or increases. The results of these simulations illustrate, in a graphically didactic manner, the influence of natural selection, operating through relative fitness, in the emergence and dominance of a fitter mutant.

Propagation dans l'environnement des microorganismes et autres particules organiques issus des élevages intensifs et conséquences pour la santé des riverains

Les élevages d'animaux de rente hébergent de plus en plus de bêtes. Cette situation génère une accumulation de poussière organique, constituée de particules inertes et de microorganismes, issus de la nourriture, de la litière, des matières fécales, des pellicules de la peau, des poils, etc. L'activité des animaux et l'activité professionnelle favorisent une remise en suspension de cette poussière, qui peut se propager à l'extérieur. Ces émissions de particules organiques dans l'environnement soulèvent des inquiétudes pour la santé des riverains. Ces craintes sont légitimes, puisque les problèmes respiratoires, allergiques ou toxiques sont bien connus chez les travailleurs agricoles exposés à de fortes doses de poussières organiques. Un autre risque sanitaire lié aux élevages intensifs d'animaux est la dissémination de bactéries résistantes aux antibiotiques dans l'environnement avec, pour éventuelle conséquence, une transmission de ces souches aux personnes résidant à proximité. Cette problématique est bien connue dans les élevages de porcs fréquemment colonisés par des SARM (Staphylococcus aureus résistant à la méticilline), qui sont transmis aux éleveurs. Les deux études analysées ci-dessous ont investigué cette problématique de dissémination des particules organiques dans l'environnement et les conséquences sur la santé des riverains. La première a étudié le lien entre le fait de résider à proximité de fermes d'élevage d'animaux et la prévalence de maladies respiratoires. La deuxième a étudié le risque de colonisation nasale par des SARM dans une population de vétérans vivant à proximité d'élevages intensifs de porcs.

Quantitative comparison between simulations of seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous poro-elastic media and equivalent visco-elastic solids for marine-type environments

There is increasing evidence to suggest that the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities constitutes an important seismic attenuation mechanism in porous rocks. As a consequence, centimetre-scale perturbations of the rock physical properties should be taken into account for seismic modelling whenever detailed and accurate responses of specific target structures are desired, which is, however, computationally prohibitive. A convenient way to circumvent this problem is to use an upscaling procedure to replace each of the heterogeneous porous media composing the geological model by corresponding equivalent visco-elastic solids and to solve the visco-elastic equations of motion for the inferred equivalent model. While the overall qualitative validity of this procedure is well established, there are as of yet no quantitative analyses regarding the equivalence of the seismograms resulting from the original poro-elastic and the corresponding upscaled visco-elastic models. To address this issue, we compare poro-elastic and visco-elastic solutions for a range of marine-type models of increasing complexity. We found that despite the identical dispersion and attenuation behaviour of the heterogeneous poro-elastic and the equivalent visco-elastic media, the seismograms may differ substantially due to diverging boundary conditions, where there exist additional options for the poro-elastic case. In particular, we observe that at the fluid/porous-solid interface, the poro- and visco-elastic seismograms agree for closed-pore boundary conditions, but differ significantly for open-pore boundary conditions. This is an important result which has potentially far-reaching implications for wave-equation-based algorithms in exploration geophysics involving fluid/porous-solid interfaces, such as, for example, wavefield decomposition.

Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models using constraint propagation.

As modern molecular biology moves towards the analysis of biological systems as opposed to their individual components, the need for appropriate mathematical and computational techniques for understanding the dynamics and structure of such systems is becoming more pressing. For example, the modeling of biochemical systems using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) based on high-throughput, time-dense profiles is becoming more common-place, which is necessitating the development of improved techniques to estimate model parameters from such data. Due to the high dimensionality of this estimation problem, straight-forward optimization strategies rarely produce correct parameter values, and hence current methods tend to utilize genetic/evolutionary algorithms to perform non-linear parameter fitting. Here, we describe a completely deterministic approach, which is based on interval analysis. This allows us to examine entire sets of parameters, and thus to exhaust the global search within a finite number of steps. In particular, we show how our method may be applied to a generic class of ODEs used for modeling biochemical systems called Generalized Mass Action Models (GMAs). In addition, we show that for GMAs our method is amenable to the technique in interval arithmetic called constraint propagation, which allows great improvement of its efficiency. To illustrate the applicability of our method we apply it to some networks of biochemical reactions appearing in the literature, showing in particular that, in addition to estimating system parameters in the absence of noise, our method may also be used to recover the topology of these networks.

Assessing Patient's belief on HIV testing before elective surgery: place for improvements in Switzerland

Background and aim of the study: In Switzerland no HIV test is performed without the patient's consent based on a Voluntary Counseling and Testing policy (VCT). We hypothesized that a substantial proportion of patients going through an elective surgery falsely believed that an HIV test was performed on a routine basis and that the lack of transmission of result was interpreted as being HIV negative. Material and method: All patients with elective orthopedic surgery during 2007 were contacted by phone in 2008. A structured questionnaire assessed their belief about routine preoperative blood analysis (glycemia, coagulation capacity, HIV serology and cholesterol) as well as result awareness and interpretation. Variables included age and gender. Analysis were conducted using the software JMP 6.0.3. Results: 1123 patients were included. 130 (12%) were excluded (i.e. unreachable, unable to communicate on the phone, not operated). 993 completed the survey (89%). Median age was 51 (16-79). 50% were female. 376 (38%) patients thought they had an HIV test performed before surgery but none of them had one. 298 (79%) interpreted the absence of result as a negative HIV test. A predictive factor to believe an HIV test had been done was an age below 50 years old (45% vs 33% for 16-49 years old and 50-79 years old respectively, p <0.001). No difference was observed between genders. Conclusion: In Switzerland, nearly 40% of the patients falsely thought an HIV test had been performed on a routine basis before surgery and were erroneously reassured about their HIV status. These results should either improve the information given to the patient regarding preoperative exams, or motivate public health policy to consider HIV opt-out screening, as patients are already expecting it.

Female sterility associated with increased clonal propagation suggests a unique combination of androdioecy and asexual reproduction in populations of Cardamine amara (Brassicaceae).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The coexistence of hermaphrodites and female-sterile individuals, or androdioecy, has been documented in only a handful of plants and animals. This study reports its existence in the plant species Cardamine amara (Brassicaceae), in which female-sterile individuals have shorter pistils than seed-producing hermaphrodites. METHODS: Morphological analysis, in situ manual pollination, microsatellite genotyping and differential gene expression analysis using Arabidopsis microarrays were used to delimit variation between female-sterile individuals and hermaphrodites. KEY RESULTS: Female sterility in C. amara appears to be caused by disrupted ovule development. It was associated with a 2.4- to 2.9-fold increase in clonal propagation. This made the pollen number of female-sterile genets more than double that of hermaphrodite genets, which fulfils a condition of co-existence predicted by simple androdioecy theories. When female-sterile individuals were observed in wild androdioecious populations, their ramet frequencies ranged from 5 to 54 %; however, their genet frequencies ranged from 11 to 29 %, which is consistent with the theoretically predicted upper limit of 50 %. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that a combination of sexual reproduction and increased asexual proliferation by female-sterile individuals probably explains the invasion and maintenance of female sterility in otherwise hermaphroditic populations. To our knowledge, this is the first report of the coexistence of female sterility and hermaphrodites in the Brassicaceae.