86 resultados para Asymptotic Mean Squared Errors


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BACKGROUND: Cost effective means of assessing the levels of risk factors in the population have to be defined in order to monitor these factors over time and across populations. This study is aimed at analyzing the difference in population estimates of the mean levels of body mass index (BMI) and the prevalences of overweight, between health examination survey and telephone survey. METHODS: The study compares the results of two health surveys, one by telephone (N=820) and the other by physical examination (N=1318). The two surveys, based on independent random samples of the population, were carried out over the same period (1992-1993) in the same population (canton of Vaud, Switzerland). RESULTS: Overall participation rates were 67% and 53% for the health interview survey (HIS) and the health examination survey (HES) respectively. In the HIS, the reporting rate was over 98% for weight and height values. Self-reported weight was on average lower than measured weight, by 2.2 kg in men and 3.5 kg in women, while self-reported height was on average greater than measured height, by 1.2 cm in men and 1.9 cm in women. As a result, in comparison to HES, HIS led to substantially lower mean levels of BMI, and to a reduction of the prevalence rates of obesity (BMI>30 kg/m(2)) by more than a half. These differences are larger for women than for men. CONCLUSION: The two surveys were based on different sampling procedures. However, this difference in design is unlikely to explain the systematic bias observed between self-reported and measured values for height and weight. This bias entails the overall validity of BMI assessment from telephone surveys.

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Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with lower coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. However, data on the CAD risk associated with high alcohol consumption are conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of heavier drinking on 10-year CAD risk in a population with high mean alcohol consumption. In a population-based study of 5,769 adults (aged 35 to 75 years) without cardiovascular disease in Switzerland, 1-week alcohol consumption was categorized as 0, 1 to 6, 7 to 13, 14 to 20, 21 to 27, 28 to 34, and > or =35 drinks/week or as nondrinkers (0 drinks/week), moderate (1 to 13 drinks/week), high (14 to 34 drinks/week), and very high (> or =35 drinks/week). Blood pressure and lipids were measured, and 10-year CAD risk was calculated according to the Framingham risk score. Seventy-three percent (n = 4,214) of the participants consumed alcohol; 16% (n = 909) were high drinkers and 2% (n = 119) very high drinkers. In multivariate analysis, increasing alcohol consumption was associated with higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (from a mean +/- SE of 1.57 +/- 0.01 mmol/L in nondrinkers to 1.88 +/- 0.03 mmol/L in very high drinkers); triglycerides (1.17 +/- 1.01 to 1.32 +/- 1.05 mmol/L), and systolic and diastolic blood pressure (127.4 +/- 0.4 to 132.2 +/- 1.4 mm Hg and 78.7 +/- 0.3 to 81.7 +/- 0.9 mm Hg, respectively) (all p values for trend <0.001). Ten-year CAD risk increased from 4.31 +/- 0.10% to 4.90 +/- 0.37% (p = 0.03) with alcohol use, with a J-shaped relation. Increasing wine consumption was more related to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, whereas beer and spirits were related to increased triglyceride levels. In conclusion, as measured by 10-year CAD risk, the protective effect of alcohol consumption disappears in very high drinkers, because the beneficial increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol is offset by the increases in blood pressure levels.

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BACKGROUND: Hypovitaminosis D is well known in different populations, but may be under diagnosed in certain populations. We aim to determine the first diagnosis considered, the duration and resolution of symptoms, and the predictors of response to treatment in female asylum seekers suffering from hypovitaminosis D. METHODS: Design: A pre- and post-intervention observational study. Setting: A network comprising an academic primary care centre and nurse practitioners. Participants: Consecutive records of 33 female asylum seekers with complaints compatible with osteomalacia and with hypovitaminosis D (serum 25-(OH) vitamin D < 21 nmol/l). Treatment intervention: The patients received either two doses of 300,000 IU intramuscular cholecalciferol as well as 800 IU of cholecalciferol with 1000 mg of calcium orally, or the oral treatment only. Main outcome measures: We recorded the first diagnosis made by the physicians before the correct diagnosis of hypovitaminosis D, the duration of symptoms before diagnosis, the responders and non-responders to treatment, the duration of symptoms after treatment, and the number of medical visits and analgesic drugs prescribed 6 months before and 6 months after diagnosis. Tests: Two-sample t-tests, chi-squared tests, and logistic regression analyses were performed. Analyses were performed using SPSS 10.0. RESULTS: Prior to the discovery of hypovitaminosis D, diagnoses related to somatisation were evoked in 30 patients (90.9%). The mean duration of symptoms before diagnosis was 2.53 years (SD 3.20). Twenty-two patients (66.7%) responded completely to treatment; the remaining patients were considered to be non-responders. After treatment was initiated, the responders' symptoms disappeared completely after 2.84 months. The mean number of emergency medical visits fell from 0.88 (SD 1.08) six months before diagnosis to 0.39 (SD 0.83) after (P = 0.027). The mean number of analgesic drugs that were prescribed also decreased from 1.67 (SD 1.5) to 0.85 (SD 1) (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Hypovitaminosis D in female asylum seekers may remain undiagnosed, with a prolonged duration of chronic symptoms. The potential pitfall is a diagnosis of somatisation. Treatment leads to a rapid resolution of symptoms, a reduction in the use of medical services, and the prescription of analgesic drugs in this vulnerable population.

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RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: To determine optimum spatial resolution when imaging peripheral arteries with magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eight vessel diameters ranging from 1.0 to 8.0 mm were simulated in a vascular phantom. A total of 40 three-dimensional flash MRA sequences were acquired with incremental variations of fields of view, matrix size, and slice thickness. The accurately known eight diameters were combined pairwise to generate 22 "exact" degrees of stenosis ranging from 42% to 87%. Then, the diameters were measured in the MRA images by three independent observers and with quantitative angiography (QA) software and used to compute the degrees of stenosis corresponding to the 22 "exact" ones. The accuracy and reproducibility of vessel diameter measurements and stenosis calculations were assessed for vessel size ranging from 6 to 8 mm (iliac artery), 4 to 5 mm (femoro-popliteal arteries), and 1 to 3 mm (infrapopliteal arteries). Maximum pixel dimension and slice thickness to obtain a mean error in stenosis evaluation of less than 10% were determined by linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Mean errors on stenosis quantification were 8.8% +/- 6.3% for 6- to 8-mm vessels, 15.5% +/- 8.2% for 4- to 5-mm vessels, and 18.9% +/- 7.5% for 1- to 3-mm vessels. Mean errors on stenosis calculation were 12.3% +/- 8.2% for observers and 11.4% +/- 15.1% for QA software (P = .0342). To evaluate stenosis with a mean error of less than 10%, maximum pixel surface, the pixel size in the phase direction, and the slice thickness should be less than 1.56 mm2, 1.34 mm, 1.70 mm, respectively (voxel size 2.65 mm3) for 6- to 8-mm vessels; 1.31 mm2, 1.10 mm, 1.34 mm (voxel size 1.76 mm3), for 4- to 5-mm vessels; and 1.17 mm2, 0.90 mm, 0.9 mm (voxel size 1.05 mm3) for 1- to 3-mm vessels. CONCLUSION: Higher spatial resolution than currently used should be selected for imaging peripheral vessels.

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Despite the central role of quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the quantification of mRNA transcripts, most analyses of qPCR data are still delegated to the software that comes with the qPCR apparatus. This is especially true for the handling of the fluorescence baseline. This article shows that baseline estimation errors are directly reflected in the observed PCR efficiency values and are thus propagated exponentially in the estimated starting concentrations as well as 'fold-difference' results. Because of the unknown origin and kinetics of the baseline fluorescence, the fluorescence values monitored in the initial cycles of the PCR reaction cannot be used to estimate a useful baseline value. An algorithm that estimates the baseline by reconstructing the log-linear phase downward from the early plateau phase of the PCR reaction was developed and shown to lead to very reproducible PCR efficiency values. PCR efficiency values were determined per sample by fitting a regression line to a subset of data points in the log-linear phase. The variability, as well as the bias, in qPCR results was significantly reduced when the mean of these PCR efficiencies per amplicon was used in the calculation of an estimate of the starting concentration per sample.

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Cognitive errors (CE) and coping strategies (CS) are the focus of most cognitive-behavioral treatments for incarcerated child molesters. Several studies have reported differences in CEs and CSs between child molesters and controls. However, the vast majority of these studies assessed cognitive errors and coping using questionnaires, which are known to present a number of important limitations. This pilot study aimed to compare the CEs and CSs of N = 17 incarcerated child abusers and N = 12 controls using observer-rated methods, namely the Cognitive Error Rating Scale (CERS; Drapeau et al., 2005) and the Coping Action Pattern Rating Scale (CAPRS; Perry, Drapeau, & Dunkley, 2005). Results showed that child molesters presented more cognitive errors, in particular positive selective abstraction, and lower coping functioning, such as escape strategies. Treatment and research implications, including the use of observer-rated methods, are discussed.

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Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

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IMPORTANCE: Depression and obesity are 2 prevalent disorders that have been repeatedly shown to be associated. However, the mechanisms and temporal sequence underlying this association are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the subtypes of major depressive disorder (MDD; melancholic, atypical, combined, or unspecified) are predictive of adiposity in terms of the incidence of obesity and changes in body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared), waist circumference, and fat mass. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective population-based cohort study, CoLaus (Cohorte Lausannoise)/PsyCoLaus (Psychiatric arm of the CoLaus Study), with 5.5 years of follow-up included 3054 randomly selected residents (mean age, 49.7 years; 53.1% were women) of the city of Lausanne, Switzerland (according to the civil register), aged 35 to 66 years in 2003, who accepted the physical and psychiatric baseline and physical follow-up evaluations. EXPOSURES: Depression subtypes according to the DSM-IV. Diagnostic criteria at baseline and follow-up, as well as sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle (alcohol and tobacco use and physical activity), and medication, were elicited using the semistructured Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Changes in body mass index, waist circumference, and fat mass during the follow-up period, in percentage of the baseline value, and the incidence of obesity during the follow-up period among nonobese participants at baseline. Weight, height, waist circumference, and body fat (bioimpedance) were measured at baseline and follow-up by trained field interviewers. RESULTS: Only participants with the atypical subtype of MDD at baseline revealed a higher increase in adiposity during follow-up than participants without MDD. The associations between this MDD subtype and body mass index (β = 3.19; 95% CI, 1.50-4.88), incidence of obesity (odds ratio, 3.75; 95% CI, 1.24-11.35), waist circumference in both sexes (β = 2.44; 95% CI, 0.21-4.66), and fat mass in men (β = 16.36; 95% CI, 4.81-27.92) remained significant after adjustments for a wide range of possible cofounding. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The atypical subtype of MDD is a strong predictor of obesity. This emphasizes the need to identify individuals with this subtype of MDD in both clinical and research settings. Therapeutic measures to diminish the consequences of increased appetite during depressive episodes with atypical features are advocated.

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To evaluate whether an activity monitor based on body acceleration measurement can accurately assess the energy cost of the human locomotion, 12 subjects walked a combination of three different speeds (preferred speed +/- 1 km/h) and seven slopes (-15 to +15% by steps of 5%) on a treadmill. Body accelerations were recorded using a triaxial accelerometer attached to the low back. The mean of the integral of the vector magnitude (norm) of the accelerations (mIAN) was calculated. VO2 was measured using continuous indirect calorimetry. When the results were separately analysed for each incline, mIAN was correlated to VO2 (average r = 0.87, p<0.001, n = 36). VO2 was not significantly correlated to mIAN when data were globally analysed (n = 252). Large relative errors occurred when predicted VO2 (estimated from data of level walking) was compared with measured VO2 for different inclines (-53% at +15% incline, to +55% at -15% incline). It is concluded that without an external measurement of the slope, the standard method of analysis of body accelerations cannot accurately predict the energy cost of uphill or downhill walking.

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Infections after total joint arthroplasty are rare but come with severe consequences. Timely, adequate and standardized treatment beginning at the onset of symptoms will have a major impact on the handling of this dreaded complication. In absences of clear guidelines, errors are often committed, with occasionally severe consequences for the patient. In this article, the 10 most frequent errors starting with diagnostics till antibiotic and surgical treatment will be discussed.

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The present study examines the Five-Factor Model (FFM) of personality and locus of control in French-speaking samples in Burkina Faso (N = 470) and Switzerland (Ns = 1,090, 361), using the Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and Levenson's Internality, Powerful others, and Chance (IPC) scales. Alpha reliabilities were consistently lower in Burkina Faso, but the factor structure of the NEO-PI-R was replicated in both cultures. The intended three-factor structure of the IPC could not be replicated, although a two-factor solution was replicable across the two samples. Although scalar equivalence has not been demonstrated, mean level comparisons showed the hypothesized effects for most of the five factors and locus of control; Burkinabè scored higher in Neuroticism than anticipated. Findings from this African sample generally replicate earlier results from Asian and Western cultures, and are consistent with a biologically-based theory of personality.

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Most people hold beliefs about personality characteristics typical members of their own and others' cultures. These perceptions of national character may be generalizations from personal experience, stereotypes with a "kernel of truth", or inaccurate stereotypes. We obtained national character ratings of 3989 people from 49 cultures and compared them with the average personality scores of culture members assessed by observer ratings and self-reports. National character ratings were reliable but did not converge with assessed traits. Perceptions of national character thus appear to be unfounded stereotypes that may serve the function of maintaining a national identity.