Can we disentangle predator-prey interactions from species distributions at a macro-scale? A case study with a raptor species.

There is a debate on whether an influence of biotic interactions on species distributions can be reflected at macro-scale levels. Whereas the influence of biotic interactions on spatial arrangements is beginning to be studied at local scales, similar studies at macro-scale levels are scarce. There is no example disentangling, from other similarities with related species, the influence of predator-prey interactions on species distributions at macro-scale levels. In this study we aimed to disentangle predator-prey interactions from species distribution data following an experimental approach including a factorial design. As a case of study we selected the short-toed eagle because of its known specialization on certain prey reptiles. We used presence-absence data at a 100 Km2 spatial resolution to extract the explanatory capacity of different environmental predictors (five abiotic and two biotic predictors) on the short-toed eagle species distribution in Peninsular Spain. Abiotic predictors were relevant climatic and topographic variables, and relevant biotic predictors were prey richness and forest density. In addition to the short-toed eagle, we also obtained the predictor's explanatory capacities for i) species of the same family Accipitridae (as a reference), ii) for other birds of different families (as controls) and iii) species with randomly selected presences (as null models). We run 650 models to test for similarities of the short-toed eagle, controls and null models with reference species, assessed by regressions of explanatory capacities. We found higher similarities between the short-toed eagle and other species of the family Accipitridae than for the other two groups. Once corrected by the family effect, our analyses revealed a signal of predator-prey interaction embedded in species distribution data. This result was corroborated with additional analyses testing for differences in the concordance between the distributions of different bird categories and the distributions of either prey or non-prey species of the short-toed eagle. Our analyses were useful to disentangle a signal of predator-prey interactions from species distribution data at a macro-scale. This study highlights the importance of disentangling specific features from the variation shared with a given taxonomic level.

Model development for capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) habitat in the Jura Mountains (Western Switzerland)

Capercaillie, Tetrao urogallus, is a threatened species in central Europe, and Swiss populations declined 40 to 50 % between 1970 and 1985. Capercaillie are sensitive to forest structure, and loss of habitat is a major cause of their decline. Knowledge of habitat characteristics is therefore essential for capercaillie conservation. Here, we present models predicting capercaillie probability of occurrence, based on relevant structural habitat variables. Models were built using multiple logistic regression analyses on capercaillie presence/absence data. Vegetation survey was carried out in July 1999 in a 170-km2 forested area (Jura mountains, canton de Vaud, western Switzerland) inhabited by capercaillie and presence/absence of the species was assessed according to dropping presence/absence. The survey was based on 10-m-radius sample plots each in a 1-km2 forest patch (n = 76 with capercaillie droppings, n = 80 without). A first model included seven out of 27 measured habitat variables and a second model only four. The latter model best represents practical needs. It includes three variables which had a negative impact on capercaillie presence: tree and shrub covers and spruce, Picea excelsa, shrub cover, and one which had a positive effect: bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus, cover, highlighting that capaercaillie selected open forest with high bilberry abundance. The model can be used to map potential capercaillie habitat distribution and to manage the habitat in favour of capercaillie (protection and adapted forestry practices) in the Swiss Jura mountains.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

Importance of abiotic stress as a range-limit determinant for European plants: insights from species' responses to climatic gradients

Aim We examined whether species occurrences are primarily limited by physiological tolerance in the abiotically more stressful end of climatic gradients (the asymmetric abiotic stress limitation (AASL) hypothesis) and the geographical predictions of this hypothesis: abiotic stress mainly determines upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal species range limits, and the importance of abiotic stress for these range limits increases the further northwards and upwards a species occurs. Location Europe and the Swiss Alps. Methods The AASL hypothesis predicts that species have skewed responses to climatic gradients, with a steep decline towards the more stressful conditions. Based on presence-absence data we examined the shape of plant species responses (measured as probability of occurrence) along three climatic gradients across latitudes in Europe (1577 species) and altitudes in the Swiss Alps (284 species) using Huisman-Olff-Fresco, generalized linear and generalized additive models. Results We found that almost half of the species from Europe and one-third from the Swiss Alps showed responses consistent with the predictions of the AASL hypothesis. Cold temperatures and a short growing season seemed to determine the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of up to one-third of the species, while drought provided an important constraint at lower-latitudinal range limits for up to one-fifth of the species. We found a biome-dependent influence of abiotic stress and no clear support for abiotic stress as a stronger upper range-limit determinant for species with higher latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, the overall influence of climate as a range-limit determinant increased with latitude. Main conclusions Our results support the AASL hypothesis for almost half of the studied species, and suggest that temperature-related stress controls the upper-latitudinal and upper-altitudinal range limits of a large proportion of these species, while other factors including drought stress may be important at the lower range limits.

A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy

Digital evidence, 'absence' of data and ambiguous patterns of reasoning

In this paper we discuss the use of digital data by the Swiss Federal Criminal Court in a recent case of attempted homicide. We use this case to examine drawbacks for the defense when the presentation of scientific evidence is partial, especially when the only perspective mentioned is that of the prosecution. We tackle this discussion at two distinct levels. First, we pursue an essentially non-technical presentation of the topic by drawing parallels between the court's summing up of the case and flawed patterns of reasoning commonly seen in other forensic disciplines, such as DNA and particle traces (e.g., gunshot residues). Then, we propose a formal analysis of the case, using elements of probability and graphical probability models, to justify our main claim that the partial presentation of digital evidence poses a risk to the administration of justice in that it keeps vital information from the defense. We will argue that such practice constitutes a violation of general principles of forensic interpretation as established by forensic science literature and current recommendations by forensic science interest groups (e.g., the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes). Finally, we posit that argument construction and analysis using formal methods can help replace digital evidence appropriately into context and thus support a sound evaluation of the evidence.

Normal kinetics of intestinal glucose absorption in the absence of GLUT2: evidence for a transport pathway requiring glucose phosphorylation and transfer into the endoplasmic reticulum.

Glucose is absorbed through the intestine by a transepithelial transport system initiated at the apical membrane by the cotransporter SGLT-1; intracellular glucose is then assumed to diffuse across the basolateral membrane through GLUT2. Here, we evaluated the impact of GLUT2 gene inactivation on this transepithelial transport process. We report that the kinetics of transepithelial glucose transport, as assessed in oral glucose tolerance tests, was identical in the presence or absence of GLUT2; that the transport was transcellular because it could be inhibited by the SGLT-1 inhibitor phlorizin, and that it could not be explained by overexpression of another known glucose transporter. By using an isolated intestine perfusion system, we demonstrated that the rate of transepithelial transport was similar in control and GLUT2(-/-) intestine and that it was increased to the same extent by cAMP in both situations. However, in the absence, but not in the presence, of GLUT2, the transport was inhibited dose-dependently by the glucose-6-phosphate translocase inhibitor S4048. Furthermore, whereas transport of [(14)C]glucose proceeded with the same kinetics in control and GLUT2(-/-) intestine, [(14)C]3-O-methylglucose was transported in intestine of control but not of mutant mice. Together our data demonstrate the existence of a transepithelial glucose transport system in GLUT2(-/-) intestine that requires glucose phosphorylation and transfer of glucose-6-phosphate into the endoplasmic reticulum. Glucose may then be released out of the cells by a membrane traffic-based pathway similar to the one we previously described in GLUT2-null hepatocytes.

Alpha beta lineage-committed thymocytes can be rescued by the gamma delta T cell receptor (TCR) in the absence of TCR beta chain.

Commitment of the alpha beta and gamma delta T cell lineages within the thymus has been studied in T cell receptor (TCR)-transgenic and TCR mutant murine strains. TCR gamma delta-transgenic or TCR beta knockout mice, both of which are unable to generate TCR alpha beta-positive T cells, develop phenotypically alpha beta-like thymocytes in significant proportions. We provide evidence that in the absence of functional TCR beta protein, the gamma delta TCR can promote the development of alpha beta-like thymocytes, which, however, do not expand significantly and do not mature into gamma delta T cells. These results show that commitment to the alpha beta lineage can be determined independently of the isotype of the TCR, and suggest that alpha beta versus gamma delta T cell lineage commitment is principally regulated by mechanisms distinct from TCR-mediated selection. To accommodate our data and those reported previously on the effect of TCR gamma and delta gene rearrangements on alpha beta T cell development, we propose a model in which lineage commitment occurs independently of TCR gene rearrangement.

Normal hemopoiesis and lymphopoiesis in the combined absence of numb and numblike.

The mammalian ortholog of the conserved Drosophila adaptor protein Numb (Nb) and its homolog Numblike (Nbl) modulate neuronal cell fate determination at least in part by antagonizing Notch signaling. Because the Notch pathway has been implicated in regulating hemopoietic stem cell self-renewal and T cell fate specification in mammals, we investigated the role of Nb and Nbl in hemopoiesis using conditional gene targeting. Surprisingly simultaneous deletion of both Nb and Nbl in murine bone marrow precursors did not affect the ability of stem cells to self-renew or to give rise to differentiated myeloid or lymphoid progeny, even under competitive conditions in mixed chimeras. Furthermore, T cell fate specification and intrathymic T cell development were unaffected in the combined absence of Nb and Nbl. Collectively our data indicate that the Nb family of adaptor proteins is dispensable for hemopoiesis and lymphopoiesis in mice, despite their proposed role in neuronal stem cell development.

Selective absence of CD8+ TCRalpha beta+ intestinal epithelial cells in transgenic mice expressing beta2-microglobulin-associated ligands exclusively on thymic cortical epithelium.

Whereas interactions between the TCRalpha beta and self MHC:peptide complexes are clearly required for positive selection of mature CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells during intrathymic development, the role of self or foreign ligands in maintaining the peripheral T cell repertoire is still controversial. In this report we have utilized keratin 14-beta2-microglobulin (K14-beta2m)-transgenic mice expressing beta2m-associated ligands exclusively on thymic cortical epithelial cells to address the possible influence of TCR:ligand interactions in peripheral CD8(+) T cell homeostasis. Our data indicate that CD8(+) T cells in peripheral lymphoid tissues are present in normal numbers in the absence of self MHC class I:peptide ligands. Surprisingly, however, steady state homeostasis of CD8(+) T cells in the intestinal epithelium is severely affected by the absence of beta2m-associated ligands. Indeed TCRalpha beta(+) IEL subsets expressing CD8alpha beta or CD8alpha alpha are both dramatically reduced in K14-beta2m mice, suggesting that the development, survival or expansion of CD8(+) IEL depends upon interaction of the TCR with MHC class I:peptide or other beta2m-associated ligands elsewhere than on thymic cortical epithelium. Collectively, our data reveal an unexpected difference in the regulation of CD8(+) T cell homeostasis by beta2m-associated ligands in the intestine as compared to peripheral lymphoid organs.

Gastric banding induces negative bone remodelling in the absence of secondary hyperparathyroidism: potential role of serum C telopeptides for follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: Data about the consequences of laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) on phospho-calcic and bone metabolism remain scarce. SUBJECTS: We studied a group of 37 obese premenopausal women (age: 24-52 y; mean BMI = 43.7 kg/m2) who underwent LAGB. METHODS: Serum calcium, phosphate, alkaline phosphatase, parathormone (PTH), vitamin D3, serum C-telopeptides, IGFBP-3 and IGF-1 were measured at baseline, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after surgery. Body composition, bone mineral content (BMC) and density (BMD) were measured using dual-X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at baseline, 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. RESULTS: There was no clinically significant decrease of calcemia; PTH remained stable. Serum telopeptides increased by 100% (P < 0.001) and serum IGFBP-3 decreased by 16% (P < 0.001) during the first 6 months, and then stabilized, whereas IGF-1 remained stable over the 2 y. BMC and BMD decreased, especially at the femoral neck; this decrease was significantly correlated with the decrease of waist and hip circumference. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that there was no evidence of secondary hyperparathyroidism 24 months after LAGB. The observed bone resorption could be linked to the decrease of IGFBP-3, although this decrease could be attributable to other confounding factors. Serum telopeptides seem to be a reliable marker of bone metabolism after gastric banding. DXA must be interpreted cautiously during major weight loss, because of the artefacts caused by the important variation of fat tissue after LAGB.

Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence-absence

Question Does a land-use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence-absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Presence-absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo-climatic and/or land-use variables available at a 25-m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo-climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo-climatic variables and the land-use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results Land use significantly improved the fit of presence-absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence-absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence-absence. The importance of adding land-use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence-absence and abundance models.

PAR2 absence completely rescues inflammation and ichthyosis caused by altered CAP1/Prss8 expression in mouse skin.

Altered serine protease activity is associated with skin disorders in humans and in mice. The serine protease channel-activating protease-1 (CAP1; also termed protease serine S1 family member 8 (Prss8)) is important for epidermal homeostasis and is thus indispensable for postnatal survival in mice, but its roles and effectors in skin pathology are poorly defined. In this paper, we report that transgenic expression in mouse skin of either CAP1/Prss8 (K14-CAP1/Prss8) or protease-activated receptor-2 (PAR2; Grhl3(PAR2/+)), one candidate downstream target, causes epidermal hyperplasia, ichthyosis and itching. K14-CAP1/Prss8 ectopic expression impairs epidermal barrier function and causes skin inflammation characterized by an increase in thymic stromal lymphopoietin levels and immune cell infiltrations. Strikingly, both gross and functional K14-CAP1/Prss8-induced phenotypes are completely negated when superimposed on a PAR2-null background, establishing PAR2 as a pivotal mediator of pathogenesis. Our data provide genetic evidence for PAR2 as a downstream effector of CAP1/Prss8 in a signalling cascade that may provide novel therapeutic targets for ichthyoses, pruritus and inflammatory skin diseases.

Inversion of crosshole seismic data in heterogenous environments : Comparison of waveform and ray-based approaches

High-resolution tomographic imaging of the shallow subsurface is becoming increasingly important for a wide range of environmental, hydrological and engineering applications. Because of their superior resolution power, their sensitivity to pertinent petrophysical parameters, and their far reaching complementarities, both seismic and georadar crosshole imaging are of particular importance. To date, corresponding approaches have largely relied on asymptotic, ray-based approaches, which only account for a very small part of the observed wavefields, inherently suffer from a limited resolution, and in complex environments may prove to be inadequate. These problems can potentially be alleviated through waveform inversion. We have developed an acoustic waveform inversion approach for crosshole seismic data whose kernel is based on a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) solution of the 2-D acoustic wave equations. This algorithm is tested on and applied to synthetic data from seismic velocity models of increasing complexity and realism and the results are compared to those obtained using state-of-the-art ray-based traveltime tomography. Regardless of the heterogeneity of the underlying models, the waveform inversion approach has the potential of reliably resolving both the geometry and the acoustic properties of features of the size of less than half a dominant wavelength. Our results do, however, also indicate that, within their inherent resolution limits, ray-based approaches provide an effective and efficient means to obtain satisfactory tomographic reconstructions of the seismic velocity structure in the presence of mild to moderate heterogeneity and in absence of strong scattering. Conversely, the excess effort of waveform inversion provides the greatest benefits for the most heterogeneous, and arguably most realistic, environments where multiple scattering effects tend to be prevalent and ray-based methods lose most of their effectiveness.