P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

Effect of SR 49059, a V1a vasopressin receptor antagonist, in Raynaud's phenomenon.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether vasopressin V1a receptor blockade reduces the abnormal vasoactive response to cold in patients suffering from Raynaud's phenomenon (RP). METHODS: SR 49059, an orally active, non-peptidic vasopressin V1a receptor antagonist, was given orally (300 mg once daily) to 20 patients with RP in a single-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized cross-over study with two 7-day periods of treatment separated by 21 days of washout. Bilateral finger systolic blood pressure and skin temperature were assessed before and after immersion of the hand in cold water for 3 min (15 degrees C) during the screening phase and three times (before and 2 and 4 h after drug intake) on days 1 and 7 of each of the two treatment periods. Recovery of digital pressure and skin temperature was measured 0, 10, 20 and 32 min after the end of the cold immersion test. RESULTS: SR 49059 significantly attenuated the cold-induced fall in systolic pressure by 14.5% (95% confidence interval 0-29; P = 0.045) on the most affected hand on day 7 compared with placebo. Temperature recovery after the end of the cold test showed a trend to enhancement 2 and 4 h after SR 49059 on day 7 (P = 0.060 and P = 0.062 respectively). The beneficial effects on finger pressure and temperature recovery were obtained without changes in supine blood pressure or in heart rate. CONCLUSION: SR 49059 given orally once a day for 7 days to patients with RP showed favourable effects compared with placebo on finger systolic pressure and temperature recovery after cold immersion, without inducing side-effects.

Thermogenesis induced by five different intravenous glucose/insulin infusions in healthy young men.

The thermogenic response induced by glucose/insulin administered intravenously was examined in 22 healthy male volunteers using indirect calorimetry in combination with the euglycaemic insulin clamp technique. Five increasing steady state levels of insulinaemia (62 muU/ml to 1132 muU/ml) were achieved by means of continuous infusions of insulin at 5 rates ranging from 0.5 mU/kg.min to 10 mU/kg.min. Euglycaemia was maintained at each insulin level by infusing glucose at different rates ranging from steady state values of 0.41 g/min to 0.77 g/min. These glucose/insulin infusions resulted in a significant net rise in resting energy expenditure from 0.33 kJ/min to 0.94 kJ/min over preinfusion baseline values for the lowest and the highest doses respectively. There was a highly significant relationship (r = 0.93, p<0.001, n = 42) between the amount of glucose infused and the net increase in energy expenditure over preinfusion baseline values. Intravenous glucose induced thermogenesis (GIT(iv)) was calculated as incremental values of energy expenditure related to step changes in glucose infusion rates. GIT(iv) was found to be approximately 5.5% a physiological plasma insulin levels (i.e. below 200 muU/ml) whereas at supraphysiological levels (i.e.>400 muU/ml) GIT(iv) was increased up to 8%. It was concluded that: 1. the magnitude of the GIT(iv) at physiological insulinaemia was similar to that found by other investigators who have administered glucose per os; 2. the elevated thermogenesis observed at high doses of glucose/insulin infusion is consistent with recent clinical findings showing a markedly increased energy expenditure in patients supported by large quantities of intravenous glucose (TPN).

Body size and early growth in appropriate- and large-for-gestational-age infants.

AIMS: To study weight, length, body composition, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE), and respiratory quotient (RQ) at birth and at 5 mo of age in both adequate-for-gestational-age (AGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) subjects; to compare the changes in body weight and body composition adjusting for gender, age, SEE, RQ and several maternal factors; to investigate the contribution of initial SEE and RQ to changes in body weight and body composition. METHODS: Sixty-nine neonates were recruited among term infants in the University Hospital of Verona, Italy. Forty-nine subjects participated until follow-up. At birth and follow-up, weight and length were measured and arm-fat area and arm-muscle area were calculated from triceps and subscapular skinfolds. SEE and RQ were measured by indirect calorimetry. RESULTS: At birth, weight, length, arm-muscle and arm-fat areas were significantly higher in LGA subjects than in AGA subjects. Weight status, SEE and RQ at birth did not explain the relative weight change after adjusting for gestational weight, placental weight, age at follow-up and gender. Arm-fat area and weight/length ratio at birth were negatively associated with relative changes in body weight after adjusting for the above variables (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Early growth from birth to 5 mo of life is significantly affected by body size and adiposity at birth. Fatter newborns had a slower growth rate than thinner newborns.

What does your neighbourhood say about you? : a study of life expectancy in 1.3 million Swiss neighbourhoods

BACKGROUND: Switzerland had the highest life expectancy at 82.8 years among the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in 2011. Geographical variation of life expectancy and its relation to the socioeconomic position of neighbourhoods are, however, not well understood. METHODS: We analysed the Swiss National Cohort, which linked the 2000 census with mortality records 2000-2008 to estimate life expectancy across neighbourhoods. A neighbourhood index of socioeconomic position (SEP) based on the median rent, education and occupation of household heads and crowding was calculated for 1.3 million overlapping neighbourhoods of 50 households. We used skew-normal regression models, including the index and additionally marital status, education, nationality, religion and occupation to calculate crude and adjusted estimates of life expectancy at age 30 years. RESULTS: Based on over 4.5 million individuals and over 400,000 deaths, estimates of life expectancy at age 30 in neighbourhoods ranged from 46.9 to 54.2 years in men and from 53.5 to 57.2 years in women. The correlation between life expectancy and neighbourhood SEP was strong (r=0.95 in men and r=0.94 women, both p values <0.0001). In a comparison of the lowest with the highest percentile of neighbourhood SEP, the crude difference in life expectancy from skew-normal regression was 4.5 years in men and 2.5 years in women. The corresponding adjusted differences were 2.8 and 1.9 years, respectively (all p values <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Although life expectancy is high in Switzerland, there is substantial geographical variation and life expectancy is strongly associated with the social standing of neighbourhoods.

Role of Chlamydia trachomatis and emerging Chlamydia-related bacteria in ectopic pregnancy in Vietnam.

In this case-control study, we investigated the seroprevalence and molecular evidence of Chlamydia trachomatis and Waddlia chondrophila in ectopic pregnancies (EP) and uneventful control pregnancies in 343 women from Vietnam. Whereas presence of C. trachomatis IgG was strongly associated with EP [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 5·41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·58-11·32], its DNA remained undetected in all tubal lesions. We confirmed an independent association between antibodies against Waddlia and previous miscarriage (aOR 1·87, 95% CI 1·02-3·42). Further investigations are needed to understand the clinical significance of Waddlia's high seroprevalence (25·9% in control pregnancies) in this urban population.