Validation of a model to predict adverse outcomes in patients with pulmonary embolism.

AIMS: To validate a model for quantifying the prognosis of patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). The model was previously derived from 10 534 US patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We validated the model in 367 patients prospectively diagnosed with PE at 117 European emergency departments. We used baseline data for the model's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V). We compared 90-day mortality within each risk class and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between the validation and the original derivation samples. We also assessed the rate of recurrent venous thrombo-embolism and major bleeding within each risk class. Mortality was 0% in Risk Class I, 1.0% in Class II, 3.1% in Class III, 10.4% in Class IV, and 24.4% in Class V and did not differ between the validation and the original derivation samples. The area under the curve was larger in the validation sample (0.87 vs. 0.78, P=0.01). No patients in Classes I and II developed recurrent thrombo-embolism or major bleeding. CONCLUSION: The model accurately stratifies patients with PE into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other relevant complications. Patients in Risk Classes I and II are at low risk of adverse outcomes and are potential candidates for outpatient treatment.

Serum hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin to predict the gestational outcome in in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection pregnancies.

Hyperglycosylated human chorionic gonadotropin (H-hCG) is secreted by the placenta in early pregnancy. Decreased H-hCG levels have been associated with abortion in spontaneous pregnancy. We retrospectively measured H-hCG and dimeric hCG in the sera of 87 in vitro fertilization patients obtained in the 3 weeks following embryo transfer and set the results in relation to pregnancy outcome. H-hCG and dimeric hCG were correlated (r(2) = 0.89), and were significantly decreased in biochemical pregnancy (2 microg/l and 18 IU/l, respectively) compared to early pregnancy loss (22 microg/l and 331 IU/l) and ongoing pregnancy (32 microg/l and 353 IU/l). Only H-hCG tended to discriminate between these last two groups.

Identification of the pathological alterations underlying respiratory failure in myotonic dystrophy transgenic mice

AbstractMyotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), also known as Steinert's disease, is an inherited autosomal dominant disease. DM1 is characterized by myotonia, muscular weakness and atrophy, but it has a multisystemic phenotype. The genetic basis of the disease is the abnormal expansion of CTG repeats in the 3' untranslated region of the DM protein kinase (DMPK) gene on chromosome 19. The size of the expansion correlates to the severity of the disease and the age of onset.Respiratory problems have long been recognized to be a major feature of the disease and are the main factor contributing to mortality ; however the mechanisms are only partly known. The aim of our study is to investigate whether respiratory failure results only from the involvement of the dystrophic process at the level of the respiratory muscles or comes also from abnormalities in the neuronal network that generates and controls the respiratory rhythm. The generation of valid transgenic mice displaying the human DM1 phenotype by the group of Dr. Gourdon provided us a useful tool to analyze the brain stem respiratory neurons, spinal phrenic motoneurons and phrenic nerves. We examined therefore these structures in transgenic mice carrying 350-500 CTGs and displaying a mild form of the disease (DM1 mice). The morphological and morphometric analysis of diaphragm muscle sections revealed a denervation of the end-plates (EPs), characterized by a decrease in size and shape complexity of EPs and a reduction in the density of acetylcholine receptors (AChRs). Also a strong and significant reduction in the number of phrenic unmyelinated fibers was detected, but not in the myelinated fibers. In addition, no pathological changes were detected in the cervical motoneurons and medullary respiratory centers (Panaite et al., 2008). These results suggest that the breathing rhythm is probably not affected in mice expressing a mild form of DM1, but rather the transmission of action potentials at the level of diaphragm NMJs is deficient.Because size of the mutation increases over generations, new transgenic mice were obtained from the mice with 350-500 CTGs, resulting from a large increase of CTG repeat in successive generations, these mice carry more than 1300 CTGs (DMSXL) and display a severe DM1 phenotype (Gomes-Pereira et al., 2007). Before we study the mechanism underlying the respiratory failure in DMSXL mice, we analyzed the peripheral nervous system (PNS) in these mice by electrophysiological, histological and morphometric methods. Our results provide strong evidence that DMSXL mice have motor neuropathy (Panaite et al., 2010, submitted). Therefore the DMSXL mice expressing severe DM1 features represent for us a good tool to investigate, in the future, the physiological, structural and molecular alterations underlying respiratory failure in DM1. Understanding the mechanism of respiratory deficiency will help to better target the therapy of these problems in DM1 patients. In addition our results may, in the future, orientate pharmaceutical and clinical research towards possible development of therapy against respiratory deficits associated with the DM1.RésuméLa dystrophic myotonique type 1 (DM1), aussi dénommée maladie de Steinert, est une maladie héréditaire autosomique dominante. Elle est caractérisée par une myotonie, une faiblesse musculaire avec atrophie et se manifeste aussi par un phénotype multisystémique. La base génétique de la maladie est une expansion anormale de répétitions CTG dans une région non traduite en 3' du gène de la DM protéine kinase (DMPK) sur le chromosome 19. La taille de l'expansion est corrélée avec la sévérité et l'âge d'apparition de DM1.Bien que les problèmes respiratoires soient reconnus depuis longtemps comme une complication de la maladie et soient le principal facteur contribuant à la mortalité, les mécanismes en sont partiellement connus. Le but de notre étude est d'examiner si l'insuffisance respiratoire de la DM1 est dû au processus dystrophique au niveau des muscles respiratoires ou si elle est entraînée aussi par des anomalies dans le réseau neuronal qui génère et contrôle le rythme respiratoire. La production par le groupe du Dr. Gourdon de souris transgéniques de DM1, manifestant le phénotype de DM1 humaine, nous a fourni un outil pour analyser les nerfs phréniques, les neurones des centres respiratoires du tronc cérébral et les motoneurones phréniques. Par conséquence, nous avons examiné ces structures chez des souris transgéniques portant 350-500 CTG et affichant une forme légère de la maladie (souris DM1). L'analyse morphologique et morphométrique des sections du diaphragme a révélé une dénervation des plaques motrices et une diminution de la taille et de la complexité de la membrane postsynaptîque, ainsi qu'une réduction de la densité des récepteurs à l'acétylcholine. Nous avons aussi détecté une réduction significative du nombre de fibres nerveuses non myélinisées mais pas des fibres myélinisées. Par ailleurs, aucun changement pathologique n'a été détecté pour les neurones moteurs médullaires cervicaux et centres respiratoires du tronc cérébral (Panaite et al., 2008). Ces résultats suggèrent que le iythme respiratoire n'est probablement pas affecté chez les souris manifestant une forme légère du DM1, mais plutôt que la transmission des potentiels d'action au niveau des plaques motrices du diaphragme est déficiente.Comme la taille du mutation augmente au fil des générations, de nouvelles souris transgéniques ont été générés par le groupe Gourdon; ces souris ont plus de 1300 CTG (DMSXL) et manifestent un phénotype sévère du DM1 (Gomes-Pereira et al., 2007). Avant d'étudier le mécanisme sous-jacent de l'insuffisance respiratoire chez les souris DMSXL, nous avons analysé le système nerveux périphérique chez ces souris par des méthodes électrophysiologiques, histologiques et morphométriques. Nos résultats fournissent des preuves solides que les souris DMSXL manifestent une neuropathie motrice (Panaite et al., 2010, soumis). Par conséquent, les souris DMSXL représentent pour nous un bon outil pour étudier, à l'avenir, les modifications physiologiques, morphologiques et moléculaires qui sous-tendent l'insuffisance respiratoire du DM1. La connaissance du mécanisme de déficience respiratoire en DM1 aidera à mieux cibler le traitement de ces problèmes aux patients. De plus, nos résultats pourront, à l'avenir, orienter la recherche pharmaceutique et clinique vers le développement de thérapie contre le déficit respiratoire associé à DM1.

External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

The potential of metastatic lymph nodes to predict positive resection margins in patients with resectable pancreatic cancer

Objective: Despite progress during recent decades, long-term outcome¦of patients with pancreatic cancer remains dismal. Since positive resection¦margins and metastatic lymph nodes are known risk factors for early tumor¦recurrence, patients at risk should be identified and could potentially benefit¦from preoperative radio-chemotherapy. This study aimed to assess whether the¦presence of lymph node metastasis could be used to predict positive resection¦margins in patients with pancreatic cancer.¦Methods: A series of 146 patients (82 male, 64 female, median age 68 years)¦underwent pancreatic head resection for various malignant diseases (pancreatic¦ductal adenocarcinoma, biliary cancer, periampullary cancer) at our institution¦from 2000 to 2011. Patients were identified from our prospective database¦that collects more than 60 single items of all patients undergoing pancreatic¦resection. Lymph node metastasis and positive resection margins were all¦confirmed by histological evaluation. Positive predictive value (PPV), negative¦predictive value (NPV), sensitivity and specificity were calculated to assess¦the predictive value of metastatic lymph nodes regarding tumor-free (R0) and¦tumor-involved (R1) resection margins.¦Results: There were 110 specimens (76%) with tumor-positive lymph nodes¦and 36 specimens with tumor-negative lymph nodes. Resection margins were¦positive in 47 specimens (32%) and negative in 99 specimens. Sensitivity of¦tumor-positive lymph nodes to detect positive resection margins was 96%, and¦the NPV was 94%. In contrast, specificity was 34% and the PPV was 41%.¦Conclusion: Patients with resectable pancreatic cancer, who have no lymph¦node metastasis, are at very low risk to have positive resection margins (2 of¦36 patients, NPV 94%). In contrast, more than one third of patients with¦metastatic lymph nodes are at increased risk for an incomplete tumor resection¦(sensitivity 96%). If lymph nodesmetastases are highly suspected at preoperative¦staging, a neoadjuvant treatment strategy should be considered to increase the¦R0 resection rate.

Longitudinal analyses of immune responses to Plasmodium falciparum derived peptides corresponding to novel blood stage antigens in coastal Kenya

We have recently described 95 predicted alpha-helical coiled-coil peptides derived from putative Plasmodium falciparum erythrocytic stage proteins. Seventy peptides recognized with the highest level of prevalence by sera from three endemic areas were selected for further studies. In this study, we sequentially examined antibody responses to these synthetic peptides in two cohorts of children at risk of clinical malaria in Kilifi district in coastal Kenya, in order to characterize the level of peptide recognition by age, and the role of anti-peptide antibodies in protection from clinical malaria. Antibody levels from 268 children in the first cohort (Chonyi) were assayed against 70 peptides. Thirty-nine peptides were selected for further study in a second cohort (Junju). The rationale for the second cohort was to confirm those peptides identified as protective in the first cohort. The Junju cohort comprised of children aged 1-6 years old (inclusive). Children were actively followed up to identify episodes of febrile malaria in both cohorts. Of the 70 peptides examined, 32 showed significantly (p<0.05) increased antibody recognition in older children and 40 showed significantly increased antibody recognition in parasitaemic children. Ten peptides were associated with a significantly reduced odds ratio (OR) for an episode of clinical malaria in the first cohort of children and two of these peptides (LR146 and AS202.11) were associated with a significantly reduced OR in both cohorts. LR146 is derived from hypothetical protein PFB0145c in PlasmoDB. Previous work has identified this protein as a target of antibodies effective in antibody dependent cellular inhibition (ADCI). The current study substantiates further the potential of protein PFB0145c and also identifies protein PF11_0424 as another likely target of protective antibodies against P. falciparum malaria

Thrombocytosis as a prognostic marker in stage III and IV serous ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Thrombocytosis is an adverse prognostic factor in many types of cancer. We investigated if pre-treatment increased platelet counts provide prognostic information specifically in patients with stage III and IV serous ovarian cancer which is the most common clinical presentation of ovarian cancer. METHODS: Platelet number on diagnosis of stage III and IV serous ovarian adenocarcinoma was evaluated in 91 patients for whom there were complete follow-up data on progression and survival. Survival and progression free survival of patients with normal platelet counts (150-350 ×10(9)/L) was compared with that of patients with thrombocytosis (>350×10(9)/L) by χ(2) and logrank tests. RESULTS: The median age of the patients was 66 years-old. From the 91 patients, 52 (57.1%) had normal platelet counts (median, 273×10(9)/L; range, 153-350) at diagnosis of their disease and 39 patients (42.9%) had thrombocytosis (median, 463×10(9)/L; range, 354-631). In the group of patients with normal platelet counts, 24 of the 52 patients had died with a median survival of 43 months (range, 3-100). In the group of patients with thrombocytosis, 24 of the 39 patients had died with a median survival of 23 months (range, 4-79). In the entire group of 91 patients there was a statistically significant difference of the overall survival and progression-free survival between the two groups (logrank test P=0.02 and P=0.007, respectively). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective analysis of stage III and IV ovarian cancer patients, thrombocytosis at the time of diagnosis had prognostic value regarding overall survival and progression-free survival.

Low C-reactive protein values at admission predict mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae that require intensive care management.

PURPOSE: To identify risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by S. pneumoniae who require intensive care unit (ICU) management, and to assess the prognostic values of these risk factors at the time of admission. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients with CAP caused by S. pneumoniae who were admitted to the 32-bed medico-surgical ICU of a community and referral university hospital between 2002 and 2011. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on variables available at admission. RESULTS: Among the 77 adult patients with severe CAP caused by S. pneumoniae who required ICU management, 12 patients died (observed mortality rate 15.6 %). Univariate analysis indicated that septic shock and low C-reactive protein (CRP) values at admission were associated with an increased risk of death. In a multivariate model, after adjustment for age and gender, septic shock [odds ratio (OR), confidence interval 95 %; 4.96, 1.11-22.25; p = 0.036], and CRP (OR 0.99, 0.98-0.99 p = 0.034) remained significantly associated with death. Finally, we assessed the discriminative ability of CRP to predict mortality by computing its receiver operating characteristic curve. The CRP value cut-off for the best sensitivity and specificity was 169.5 mg/L to predict hospital mortality with an area under the curve of 0.72 (0.55-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality of patients with S. pneumoniae CAP requiring ICU management was much lower than predicted by severity scores. The presence of septic shock and a CRP value at admission <169.5 mg/L predicted a fatal outcome.