343 resultados para Bayesian logistic regression


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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of computed tomography angiography (CTA) in predicting arterial encasement by limb tumours, by comparing CTA with surgical findings (gold standard). METHODS: Preoperative CTA images of 55 arteries in 48 patients were assessed for arterial status: cross-sectional CTA images were scored as showing a fat plane between artery and tumour (score 0), slight contact between artery and tumour (score 1), partial arterial encasement (score 2) or total arterial encasement (score 3). Reformatted CTA images were assessed for arterial displacement, rigid wall, stenosis or occlusion. At surgery, arteries were classified as free or surgically encased; 45 arteries were free and 10 were surgically encased. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression identified the axial CTA score as a relevant predictor for arterial encasement and subsequent vascular intervention during surgery. All sites where CTA showed a fat plane between the tumour and the artery were classified as free at surgery (n = 28/28). The sensitivity of total arterial encasement on CTA (score 3) was 90%, specificity 93%, accuracy 93% and positive likelihood ratio 13.5. CONCLUSION: CTA evidence of total arterial encasement is a highly specific indication of arterial encasement. The presence of fat between the tumour and the artery on CTA rules out arterial involvement at surgery.

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BACKGROUND & AIMS: Steatosis is a prominent feature of hepatitis C, especially in patients infected with genotype 3. The analysis of genetic polymorphisms influencing steatosis in chronic hepatitis C has been limited by the studies' small sample size, and important single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), such as those in the patatin-like phospholipase family 3 protein (PNPLA3), were never evaluated. METHODS: We analyzed the role of SNPs, from 19 systematically selected candidate genes, on steatosis in 626 Caucasian hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients. SNPs were extracted from a genome-wide association-generated dataset. Associations of alleles with the presence and/or different severity of steatosis were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression, accounting for all relevant covariates. RESULTS: The risk of steatosis was increased by carriage of I148M in PNPLA3, but only in patients with HCV genotypes non-3 (odds ratio [OR]=1.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.6-2.3, p<0.001) and similar, albeit weaker associations were found for SNPs in peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ (PPARG) and interleukin-28B (IL28B). Carriage of a SNP in the microsomal triglyceride transfer protein (MTTP) increased the risk of steatosis, but only in patients with HCV genotype 3 (rs1800803, OR=3.4, 95% CI=2.4-4.9, p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The rs738409 SNP in PNPLA3 is associated with an increased risk of steatosis in patients infected with HCV genotypes non-3. Host genes affect steatosis depending on the infecting HCV genotype, suggesting their interaction with viral factors.

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BACKGROUND: The occurrence of depression in younger adults is related to the combination of long-standing factors such as personality traits (neuroticism) and more acute factors such as the subjective impact of stressful life events. Whether an increase in physical illnesses changes these associations in old age depression remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We compared 79 outpatients with major depression and 102 never-depressed controls; subjects included both young (mean age: 35 years) and older (mean age: 70 years) adults. Assessments included the Social Readjustment Rating Scale, NEO Personality Inventory and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale. Logistic regression models analyzed the association between depression and subjective impact of stressful life events while controlling for neuroticism and physical illness. RESULTS: Patients and controls experienced the same number of stressful life events in the past 12 months. However, in contrast to the controls, patients associated the events with a subjective negative emotional impact. Negative stress impact and levels of neuroticism, but not physical illness, significantly predicted depression in young age. In old age, negative stress impact was weakly associated with depression. In this age group, depressive illness was also determined by physical illness burden and neuroticism. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that the subjective impact of life stressors, although rated as of the same magnitude, plays a less important role in accounting for depression in older age compared to young age. They also indicate an increasing weight of physical illness burden in the prediction of depression occurrence in old age.

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Capercaillie, Tetrao urogallus, is a threatened species in central Europe, and Swiss populations declined 40 to 50 % between 1970 and 1985. Capercaillie are sensitive to forest structure, and loss of habitat is a major cause of their decline. Knowledge of habitat characteristics is therefore essential for capercaillie conservation. Here, we present models predicting capercaillie probability of occurrence, based on relevant structural habitat variables. Models were built using multiple logistic regression analyses on capercaillie presence/absence data. Vegetation survey was carried out in July 1999 in a 170-km2 forested area (Jura mountains, canton de Vaud, western Switzerland) inhabited by capercaillie and presence/absence of the species was assessed according to dropping presence/absence. The survey was based on 10-m-radius sample plots each in a 1-km2 forest patch (n = 76 with capercaillie droppings, n = 80 without). A first model included seven out of 27 measured habitat variables and a second model only four. The latter model best represents practical needs. It includes three variables which had a negative impact on capercaillie presence: tree and shrub covers and spruce, Picea excelsa, shrub cover, and one which had a positive effect: bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus, cover, highlighting that capaercaillie selected open forest with high bilberry abundance. The model can be used to map potential capercaillie habitat distribution and to manage the habitat in favour of capercaillie (protection and adapted forestry practices) in the Swiss Jura mountains.

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BACKGROUND: Although methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) native bone and joint infection (BJI) constitutes the more frequent clinical entity of BJI, prognostic studies mostly focused on methicillin-resistant S. aureus prosthetic joint infection. We aimed to assess the determinants of native MSSA BJI outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study (2001-2011) of patients admitted in a reference hospital centre for native MSSA BJI. Treatment failure determinants were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves and binary logistic regression. RESULTS: Sixty-six patients (42 males [63.6%]; median age 61.2 years; interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-71.9) presented an acute (n = 38; 57.6%) or chronic (n = 28; 42.4%) native MSSA arthritis (n = 15; 22.7%), osteomyelitis (n = 19; 28.8%) or spondylodiscitis (n = 32; 48.5%), considered as "difficult-to-treat" in 61 cases (92.4%). All received a prolonged (27.1 weeks; IQR, 16.9-36.1) combined antimicrobial therapy, after surgical management in 37 cases (56.1%). Sixteen treatment failures (24.2%) were observed during a median follow-up period of 63.3 weeks (IQR, 44.7-103.1), including 13 persisting infections, 1 relapse after treatment disruption, and 2 super-infections. Independent determinants of treatment failure were the existence of a sinus tract (odds ratio [OR], 5.300; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.166-24.103) and a prolonged delay to infectious disease specialist referral (OR, 1.134; 95% CI 1.013-1.271). CONCLUSIONS: The important treatment failure rate pinpointed the difficulty of cure encountered in complicated native MSSA BJI. An early infectious disease specialist referral is essential, especially in debilitated patients or in presence of sinus tract.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine risk of Down syndrome (DS) in multiple relative to singleton pregnancies, and compare prenatal diagnosis rates and pregnancy outcome. DESIGN: Population-based prevalence study based on EUROCAT congenital anomaly registries. SETTING: Eight European countries. POPULATION: 14.8 million births 1990-2009; 2.89% multiple births. METHODS: DS cases included livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA). Zygosity is inferred from like/unlike sex for birth denominators, and from concordance for DS cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risk (RR) of DS per fetus/baby from multiple versus singleton pregnancies and per pregnancy in monozygotic/dizygotic versus singleton pregnancies. Proportion of prenatally diagnosed and pregnancy outcome. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Poisson and logistic regression stratified for maternal age, country and time. RESULTS: Overall, the adjusted (adj) RR of DS for fetus/babies from multiple versus singleton pregnancies was 0.58 (95% CI 0.53-0.62), similar for all maternal ages except for mothers over 44, for whom it was considerably lower. In 8.7% of twin pairs affected by DS, both co-twins were diagnosed with the condition. The adjRR of DS for monozygotic versus singleton pregnancies was 0.34 (95% CI 0.25-0.44) and for dizygotic versus singleton pregnancies 1.34 (95% CI 1.23-1.46). DS fetuses from multiple births were less likely to be prenatally diagnosed than singletons (adjOR 0.62 [95% CI 0.50-0.78]) and following diagnosis less likely to be TOPFA (adjOR 0.40 [95% CI 0.27-0.59]). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of DS per fetus/baby is lower in multiple than singleton pregnancies. These estimates can be used for genetic counselling and prenatal screening.

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest wall syndrome (CWS), the main cause of chest pain in primary care practice, is most often an exclusion diagnosis. We developed and evaluated a clinical prediction rule for CWS. METHODS: Data from a multicenter clinical cohort of consecutive primary care patients with chest pain were used (59 general practitioners, 672 patients). A final diagnosis was determined after 12 months of follow-up. We used the literature and bivariate analyses to identify candidate predictors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to develop a clinical prediction rule for CWS. We used data from a German cohort (n = 1212) for external validation. RESULTS: From bivariate analyses, we identified six variables characterizing CWS: thoracic pain (neither retrosternal nor oppressive), stabbing, well localized pain, no history of coronary heart disease, absence of general practitioner's concern, and pain reproducible by palpation. This last variable accounted for 2 points in the clinical prediction rule, the others for 1 point each; the total score ranged from 0 to 7 points. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.76-0.83) in the derivation cohort (specificity: 89%; sensitivity: 45%; cut-off set at 6 points). Among all patients presenting CWS (n = 284), 71% (n = 201) had a pain reproducible by palpation and 45% (n = 127) were correctly diagnosed. For a subset (n = 43) of these correctly classified CWS patients, 65 additional investigations (30 electrocardiograms, 16 thoracic radiographies, 10 laboratory tests, eight specialist referrals, one thoracic computed tomography) had been performed to achieve diagnosis. False positives (n = 41) included three patients with stable angina (1.8% of all positives). External validation revealed the ROC curve to be 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.79) with a sensitivity of 22% and a specificity of 93%. CONCLUSIONS: This CWS score offers a useful complement to the usual CWS exclusion diagnosing process. Indeed, for the 127 patients presenting CWS and correctly classified by our clinical prediction rule, 65 additional tests and exams could have been avoided. However, the reproduction of chest pain by palpation, the most important characteristic to diagnose CWS, is not pathognomonic.

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PURPOSE: To examine the relationship between the nonmedical prescription drug use (NMPDU) of six drug classes and health. METHODS: Data on young adults males (mean age, 19.96 years) from the baseline and follow-up of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) were used (n = 4,958). Two sets of logistic regression models were fitted to examine the associations between NMPDU of opioid analgesics, sedatives or sleeping pills, anxiolytics, antidepressants, beta blockers and stimulants, and health status (assessed using the Medical Outcomes Study 12-Item Short Form Survey Instrument [SF-12 v2]). We first computed odds ratios between NMPDU at baseline and poor mental and physical health at follow-up, adjusting for poor mental or physical health at baseline. We then computed odds ratios between poor mental and physical health at baseline and NMPDU at follow-up, adjusting for NMPDU at baseline. RESULTS: Three key findings regarding mental health were (1) there was a reciprocal risk between poor mental health and sedatives and anxiolytics; (2) poor mental health increased NMPDU of opioid analgesics and antidepressants but not vice versa; and (3) there were no associations with stimulants. Three key findings regarding physical health were (1) poor physical health increased the risk of NMPDU of anxiolytics; (2) the only reciprocal risk was between physical health and NMPDU of opioid analgesics; and (3) there were no associations with stimulants. CONCLUSION: These results, among the first ever on reciprocal effects between NMPDU and mental and physical health status, give unique information concerning the adverse effects of NMPDU on health and vice versa. The study shows that NMPDU is not only a sign of self-medication but may induce health problems.

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The aim of the present study was to empirically determine whether: (a) sport injuries were associated with alcohol consumption before the injury (acute intake) and with usual consumption patterns (chronic high intake and heavy intake on single occasions); (b) the risk of sport injuries related to alcohol consumption differs from that of other injuries; and (c) there are differences between the sexes and between types of sport. Data from 8694 patients attending the emergency department of Lausanne University Hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 were analysed. Of those patients, 4861 came to the hospital because of an injury and 885 patients were identified as having a sport injury (18.2%). Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios of injury relating to alcohol consumption. With increasingly acute intake, the risk of sport and other injuries increased (sports injury and alcohol use in the 6 h before injury compared with no use: odds ratio=4.29, 7.46, and 14.75 for low, medium, and high alcohol use among women, and 2.81, 3.39, and 1.64 for low, medium, and high alcohol use among men). Alcohol consumption was associated with an increasingly higher risk of sport injuries compared with other injuries among women (consumption 6 h before injury: odds ratio=1.12, 1.23, and 1.56 for low, medium, and high alcohol use), but not men (odds ratio=1.17, 0.83, and 0.23 for low, medium, and high alcohol use). Regarding usual consumption patterns, those men and women injured while exercising were more often at-risk drinkers (men: 44%; women: 25%) compared with those injured during other activities (men: 37%; women: 13%). The results indicate that both men and women, but particularly women, should not practise sports after alcohol ingestion. The study raises questions as to whether sport should be generally promoted as an alternative to alcohol consumption in prevention programmes. Whereas some sports seem to be protective (e.g. endurance and fitness sport) for risky alcohol use, the majority are not. It is important to note, however, that we do not dismiss the beneficial effects of practising for an individual's health. The other positive aspect of practising, namely interacting socially with others, may come at the price of an increased alcohol use, particularly in a wet culture like Switzerland where any social contact is often accompanied by alcohol consumption.

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The trends in compliance with the dietary recommendations of the Swiss Society for Nutrition in the Geneva population were assessed for the period from 1999 to 2009 using 10 cross-sectional, population-based surveys (Bus Santé study) with a total of 9,320 participants aged 35 to 75 years (50% women). Dietary intake was assessed using a self-administered, validated, semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Trends were assessed by logistic regression adjusting for age, smoking status, education, and nationality using survey year as the independent variable. After excluding participants with extreme intakes, the percentage of participants with a cholesterol intake of <300 mg/day increased from 40.8% in 1999 to 43.6% in 2009 for men (multivariate-adjusted P for trend=0.04) and from 57.8% to 61.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend=0.06). Calcium intake >1 g/day decreased from 53.3% to 46% in men and from 47.6% to 40.7% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend<0.001). Adequate iron intake decreased from 68.3% to 65.3% in men and from 13.3% to 8.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend<0.001). Conversely, no significant changes were observed for carbohydrates, protein, total fat (including saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), fiber, and vitamins D and A. We conclude that the quality of the Swiss diet did not improve between 1999 and 2009 and that intakes deviate substantially from expert recommendations for health promotion and chronic disease risk reduction.

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BACKGROUND: Among the many definitions of frailty, the frailty phenotype defined by Fried et al. is one of few constructs that has been repeatedly validated: first in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and subsequently in other large cohorts in the North America. In Europe, the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) is a gold mine of individual, economic and health information that can provide insight into better understanding of frailty across diverse population settings. A recent adaptation of the original five CHS-frailty criteria was proposed to make use of SHARE data and measure frailty in the European population. To test the validity of the SHARE operationalized frailty phenotype, this study aims to evaluate its prospective association with adverse health outcomes. METHODS: Data are from 11,015 community-dwelling men and women aged 60+ participating in wave 1 and 2 of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe, a population-based survey. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the 2-year follow up effect of SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype on the incidence of disability (disability-free at baseline) and on worsening disability and morbidity, adjusting for age, sex, income and baseline morbidity and disability. RESULTS: At 2-year follow up, frail individuals were at increased risk for: developing mobility (OR 3.07, 95% CI, 1.02-9.36), IADL (OR 5.52, 95% CI, 3.76-8.10) and BADL (OR 5.13, 95% CI, 3.53-7.44) disability; worsening mobility (OR 2.94, 95% CI, 2.19- 3.93) IADL (OR 4.43, 95% CI, 3.19-6.15) and BADL disability (OR 4.53, 95% CI, 3.14-6.54); and worsening morbidity (OR 1.77, 95% CI, 1.35-2.32). These associations were significant even among the prefrail, but with a lower magnitude of effect. CONCLUSIONS: The SHARE-operationalized frailty phenotype is significantly associated with all tested health outcomes independent of baseline morbidity and disability in community-dwelling men and women aged 60 and older living in Europe. The robustness of results validate the use of this phenotype in the SHARE survey for future research on frailty in Europe.

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OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a simple, integer-based score to predict functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) using variables readily available after emergency room admission. METHODS: Logistic regression was performed in the derivation cohort of previously independent patients with AIS (Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne [ASTRAL]) to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale score >2). An integer-based point-scoring system for each covariate of the fitted multivariate model was generated by their β-coefficients; the overall score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores. The model was validated internally using a 2-fold cross-validation technique and externally in 2 independent cohorts (Athens and Vienna Stroke Registries). RESULTS: Age (A), severity of stroke (S) measured by admission NIH Stroke Scale score, stroke onset to admission time (T), range of visual fields (R), acute glucose (A), and level of consciousness (L) were identified as independent predictors of unfavorable outcome in 1,645 patients in ASTRAL. Their β-coefficients were multiplied by 4 and rounded to the closest integer to generate the score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the score in the ASTRAL cohort was 0.850. The score was well calibrated in the derivation (p = 0.43) and validation cohorts (0.22 [Athens, n = 1,659] and 0.49 [Vienna, n = 653]). AUCs were 0.937 (Athens), 0.771 (Vienna), and 0.902 (when pooled). An ASTRAL score of 31 indicates a 50% likelihood of unfavorable outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score is a simple integer-based score to predict functional outcome using 6 readily available items at hospital admission. It performed well in double external validation and may be a useful tool for clinical practice and stroke research.

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Question: Outdoor workers can be exposed to intense ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation likely to results to sunburns. As sunburn is an important risk factor for skin cancer, in particular melanoma, we investigated the causes of occupational sunburns (OS) in French outdoor workers. Methods: A population-based survey was conducted in May-June 2012 through computer-assisted telephonic interviews in population 25 to 69 years of age. History of sunburn from occupational exposure within the year preceding interview was collected. We analysed the risk of OS in multivariate logistic regression. Results: Out of 1442 individuals who declared having an occupational exposure to solar UV radiation, 403 (27.9%) reported a sunburn from occupational exposure in the year preceding the interview. Sunburns were more frequent in women (30% vs. 26.4% in men although not significant p = 0.14), in younger workers (p = 0.0099), in sensitive phototype (40% in phototype I/II vs. 23% in phototype III/IV, p < 0.001) and in workers taking lunch outdoor (p = 0.0355). Some occupations were more associated with OS (more than 30%): health occupations, managing, research/engineering, construction workers and culture/art/social sciences workers. In multivariate analysis, risk factors for OS are phototype (I vs. IV, OR = 4.30 95% CI [2.65-6.98]), sunburn during leisure time (OR = 3.46 95% CI [2.62-4.59]), seasonality of exposure (seasonal vs. constant exposure OR = 1.36 95% CI [1.02-1.81] and annual UVA exposure (OR for 10J/m² daily average increment 1.08 95% CI [1.02-1.14]). In multivariate analysis the type of occupation was not associated with increased OS. Conclusion: Sunburns from occupation was also observed in non sensitive population, phototype IV, which shows that outdoor workers are potentially exposed to intense UV radiations. This study suggests that prevention should target UV sensitive outdoor workers as well as those cumulating intense UV exposure.

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PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore the periodical patterns of events and deaths related to cardiovascular disease (CVD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Swiss adults (≥ 18 years). METHODS: Mortality data for period 1969-2007 (N=869,863 CVD events) and hospitalization data for period 1997-2008 (N=959,990 CVD events) were used. The annual, weekly and circadian distribution of CVD-related deaths and events were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for age, gender and calendar year and considering deaths from respiratory diseases, accidents or other causes as competitive events. RESULTS: CVD deaths and hospitalizations occurred less frequently in the summer months. Similar patterns were found for AMI and stroke. No significant weekly variation for CVD deaths was found. Stratification by age and gender showed subjects aged <65 years to present a higher probability of dying on Mondays and Saturday, only for men. This finding was confirmed after multivariate adjustment. Finally, a circadian variation in CVD mortality was observed, with a first peak in the morning (8-12 am) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (2-6 pm). This pattern persisted after multivariate adjustment and was more pronounced for AMI than for stroke. CONCLUSION: There is a periodicity of hospitalizations and deaths related to CVD, AMI and stroke in Switzerland. This pattern changes slightly according to the age and sex of the subjects. Although the underlying mechanisms are not fully identified, preventive measures should take into account these aspects to develop better strategies of prevention and management of CVD.

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Introduction: Use of paracetamol has been associated with an increased risk of asthma in several epidemiological studies. In contrast, it has been suggested that non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) might be protective (Kanabar, Clin Ther 2007), but data relating to these drugs are scarce. Methods: Prevalence of asthma and intake of analgesics in the past 2 years were assessed by questionnaire in 2008 in young adults (≥;16 years) diagnosed with cancer between 1976 and 2003 (Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study). In a multivariate logistic regression we analysed the association between asthma and intake of paracetamol only, NSAIDs only or their combination, adjusting for age, sex, cancer diagnosis, cancer therapy and time since diagnosis. Results: Of the 1293 participants (response rate 68%), 83 (6%) reported asthma and 845 (65%) intake of analgesics in the past 2 years. Of these, 257 (29%) took paracetamol only, 224 (25%) NSAIDs only, 312 (35%) a combination of both and 52 (6%) other analgesics. Adjusted Odds ratios for asthma were 2.2 (95% CI 1.0-4.7; p = 0.04), 1.9 (0.9-4.3; p = 0.12) and 2.9 (1.4-6.1; p <0.01) in those using paracetamol only, NSAIDs only or their combination respectively. Conclusion: These cross-sectional data in a selected population do not support a protective effect of NSAIDs against asthma, neither taken alone nor in combination with paracetamol. All analgesics were positively associated with reported asthma episodes in the past two years. This can be explained by reverse causation, with intake of analgesics being a result rather than a cause of asthma events. Randomised controlled trials in unselected populations are needed to clarify the direction of causation.