Approximate Bayesian Computation Reveals the Crucial Role of Oceanic Islands for the Assembly of Continental Biodiversity.

The perceived low levels of genetic diversity, poor interspecific competitive and defensive ability, and loss of dispersal capacities of insular lineages have driven the view that oceanic islands are evolutionary dead ends. Focusing on the Atlantic bryophyte flora distributed across the archipelagos of the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, Western Europe, and northwestern Africa, we used an integrative approach with species distribution modeling and population genetic analyses based on approximate Bayesian computation to determine whether this view applies to organisms with inherent high dispersal capacities. Genetic diversity was found to be higher in island than in continental populations, contributing to mounting evidence that, contrary to theoretical expectations, island populations are not necessarily genetically depauperate. Patterns of genetic variation among island and continental populations consistently fitted those simulated under a scenario of de novo foundation of continental populations from insular ancestors better than those expected if islands would represent a sink or a refugium of continental biodiversity. We, suggest that the northeastern Atlantic archipelagos have played a key role as a stepping stone for transoceanic migrants. Our results challenge the traditional notion that oceanic islands are the end of the colonization road and illustrate the significant role of oceanic islands as reservoirs of novel biodiversity for the assembly of continental floras.

Bayesian Networks for the Age Classification of Living Individuals: a Study on Transition Analysis

Over the past few decades, age estimation of living persons has represented a challenging task for many forensic services worldwide. In general, the process for age estimation includes the observation of the degree of maturity reached by some physical attributes, such as dentition or several ossification centers. The estimated chronological age or the probability that an individual belongs to a meaningful class of ages is then obtained from the observed degree of maturity by means of various statistical methods. Among these methods, those developed in a Bayesian framework offer to users the possibility of coherently dealing with the uncertainty associated with age estimation and of assessing in a transparent and logical way the probability that an examined individual is younger or older than a given age threshold. Recently, a Bayesian network for age estimation has been presented in scientific literature; this kind of probabilistic graphical tool may facilitate the use of the probabilistic approach. Probabilities of interest in the network are assigned by means of transition analysis, a statistical parametric model, which links the chronological age and the degree of maturity by means of specific regression models, such as logit or probit models. Since different regression models can be employed in transition analysis, the aim of this paper is to study the influence of the model in the classification of individuals. The analysis was performed using a dataset related to the ossifications status of the medial clavicular epiphysis and results support that the classification of individuals is not dependent on the choice of the regression model.

Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

Circadian variation of salivary immunoglobin A, alpha-amylase activity and mood in response to repeated double-poling sprints in hypoxia.

PURPOSE: To assess the circadian variations in salivary immunoglobin A (sIgA) and alpha-amylase activity (sAA), biomarkers of mucosal immune function, together with mood during 2 weeks of repeated sprint training in hypoxia (RSH) and normoxia (RSN). METHODS: Over a 2-week period, 17 competitive cross-country skiers performed six training sessions, each consisting of four sets of five 10-s bouts of all-out double-poling under either normobaric hypoxia (FiO2: 13.8 %, 3000 m) or normoxia. The levels of sIgA and sAA activity and mood were determined five times during each of the first (T1) and sixth (T6) days of training, as well as during days preceding (baseline) and after the training intervention (follow-up). RESULTS: With RSH, sIgA was higher on T6 than T1 (P = 0.049), and sAA was increased on days T1, T6, and during the follow-up (P < 0.01). With RSN, sIgA remained unchanged and sAA was elevated on day T1 only (P = 0.04). Similarly, the RSH group demonstrated reduced mood on days T1, T6, and during the follow-up, while mood was lowered only on T1 with RSN (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The circadian variation of sIgA and sAA activity, biomarkers of mucosal immune function, as well as mood were similar on the first day of training when repeated double-poling sprints were performed with or without hypoxia. Only with RSH did the levels of sIgA and sAA activity rise with time, becoming maximal after six training sessions, when mood was still lowered. Therefore, six sessions of RSH reduced mood, but did not impair mucosal immune function.

Modifier Genes as Therapeutics: The Nuclear Hormone Receptor Rev Erb Alpha (Nr1d1) Rescues Nr2e3 Associated Retinal Disease

Nuclear hormone receptors play a major role in many important biological processes. Most nuclear hormone receptors are ubiquitously expressed and regulate processes such as metabolism, circadian function, and development. They function in these processes to maintain homeostasis through modulation of transcriptional gene networks. In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of a nuclear hormone receptor gene to modulate retinal degeneration and restore the integrity of the retina. Currently, there are no effective treatment options for retinal degenerative diseases leading to progressive and irreversible blindness. In this study we demonstrate that the nuclear hormone receptor gene Nr1d1 (Rev-Erba) rescues Nr2e3- associated retinal degeneration in the rd7 mouse, which lacks a functional Nr2e3 gene. Mutations in human NR2E3 are associated with several retinal degenerations including enhanced S cone syndrome and retinitis pigmentosa. The rd7 mouse, lacking Nr2e3, exhibits an increase in S cones and slow, progressive retinal degeneration. A traditional genetic mapping approach previously identified candidate modifier loci. Here, we demonstrate that in vivo delivery of the candidate modifier gene, Nr1d1 rescues Nr2e3 associated retinal degeneration. We observed clinical, histological, functional, and molecular restoration of the rd7 retina. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism of rescue at the molecular and functional level is through the re-regulation of key genes within the Nr2e3-directed transcriptional network. Together, these findings reveal the potency of nuclear receptors as modulators of disease and specifically of NR1D1 as a novel therapeutic for retinal degenerations.

Anti-TNF alpha medications and neuropathy.

We studied the clinical, electrophysiological, and pathological features, outcome, and frequency of anti-tumor necrosis factor alpha (a-TNF) medications-induced neuropathies (ATIN) in patients with inflammatory disorders. Of 2,017 patients treated with a-TNF medication, 12 patients met our inclusion criteria for a prevalence of 0.60% and an incidence of 0.4 cases per 1,000 person-years. The median time from a-TNF medication treatment to ATIN was 16.8 months (range 2-60 months). Six patients had focal or multifocal peripheral neuropathies. The other six had generalized neuropathies. For all, a-TNF medication was stopped. Seven patients received immunoglobulin infusions. ATIN outcome was favorable in all but one patient. ATINs are rare and heterogeneous neuropathies. In 10 patients, the neuropathy was "inflammatory", suggesting that it could be due to systemic pro-inflammatory effects of a-TNF agents.

A practical guide for the formulation of propositions in the bayesian approach to DNA evidence interpretation in an adversarial environment

The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known.