Low predictive value of elevated blood pressure during childhood and adolescence

Background: Screening of elevated blood pressure (BP) in children has been advocated to early identify hypertension. However, identification of children with sustained elevated BP is challenging due to the high BP variability. The value of an elevated BP measure during childhood and adolescence for the prediction of future elevated BP is not well described. Objectives: We assessed the positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive value of high BP for sustained elevated BP in cohorts of children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the African region. Methods: Serial school-based surveys of weight, height, and BP were conducted yearly between 1998-2006 among all students of the country in four school grades (kindergarten [G0, mean age (SD): 5.5 (0.4) yr], G4 [9.2 (0.4) yr], G7 [12.5 (0.4) yr] and G10 (15.6 (0.5) yr]. We constituted three cohorts of children examined twice at 3-4 years interval: 4,557 children examined at G0 and G4, 6,198 at G4 and G7, and 6,094 at G7 and G10. The same automated BP measurement devices were used throughout the study. BP was measured twice at each exam and averaged. Obesity and elevated BP were defined using the CDC (BMI_95th sex-, and age-specific percentile) and the NHBPEP criteria (BP_95th sex-, age-, and height specific percentile), respectively. Results: Prevalence of obesity was 6.1% at G0, 7.1% at G4, 7.5% at G7, and 6.5% at G10. Prevalence of elevated BP was 10.2% at G0, 9.9% at G4, 7.1% at G7, and 8.7% at G10. Among children with elevated BP at initial exam, the PPV of keeping elevated BP was low but increased with age: 13% between G0 and G4, 19% between G4 and G7, and 27% between G7 and G10. Among obese children with elevated BP, the PPV was higher: 33%, 35% and 39% respectively. Overall, the probability for children with normal BP to remain in that category 3-4 years later (NPV) was 92%, 95%, and 93%, respectively. By comparison, the PPV for children initially obese to remain obese was much higher at 71%, 71%, and 62% (G7-G10), respectively. The NPV (i.e. the probability of remaining at normal weight) was 94%, 96%, and 98%, respectively. Conclusion: During childhood and adolescence, having an elevated BP at one occasion is a weak predictor of sustained elevated BP 3-4 years later. In obese children, it is a better predictor.

Zoledronic Acid in Reducing Clinical Fracture and Mortality after Hip Fracture.

BACKGROUND: Mortality is increased after a hip fracture, and strategies that improve outcomes are needed. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 1065 patients were assigned to receive yearly intravenous zoledronic acid (at a dose of 5 mg), and 1062 patients were assigned to receive placebo. The infusions were first administered within 90 days after surgical repair of a hip fracture. All patients received supplemental vitamin D and calcium. The median follow-up was 1.9 years. The primary end point was a new clinical fracture. RESULTS: The rates of any new clinical fracture were 8.6% in the zoledronic acid group and 13.9% in the placebo group, a 35% risk reduction (P = 0.001); the respective rates of a new clinical vertebral fracture were 1.7% and 3.8% (P = 0.02), and the respective rates of new nonvertebral fractures were 7.6% and 10.7% (P = 0.03). In the safety analysis, 101 of 1054 patients in the zoledronic acid group (9.6%) and 141 of 1057 patients in the placebo group (13.3%) died, a reduction of 28% in deaths from any cause in the zoledronic-acid group (P = 0.01). The most frequent adverse events in patients receiving zoledronic acid were pyrexia, myalgia, and bone and musculoskeletal pain. No cases of osteonecrosis of the jaw were reported, and no adverse effects on the healing of fractures were noted. The rates of renal and cardiovascular adverse events, including atrial fibrillation and stroke, were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: An annual infusion of zoledronic acid within 90 days after repair of a low-trauma hip fracture was associated with a reduction in the rate of new clinical fractures and improved survival. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00046254.).

Childhood cancer mortality in America, Asia, and Oceania, 1970 through 2007.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 4 decades, childhood cancer mortality declined in most developed areas of the world. However, scant information is available from middle-income and developing countries. The authors analyzed and compared patterns in childhood cancer mortality in 24 developed and middle-income countries in America, Asia, and Oceania between 1970 and 2007. METHODS: Childhood age-standardized annual mortality rates were derived from the World Health Organization (WHO) database for all neoplasms, bone and kidney cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and leukemias. RESULTS: Since 1970, rates for all childhood cancers dropped from approximately 8 per 100,000 boys to 3 per 100,000 boys and from 6 per 100,000 girls to 2 per 100,000 girls in North America and Japan. Latin American countries registered rates of approximately 5 per 100,000 boys and 4 per 100,000 girls for 2005 through 2007, similar to the rates registered in more developed areas in the early 1980s. Similar patterns were observed for leukemias, for which the mortality rates were 0.81 per 100,000 boys and 0.55 per 100,000 girls in North America, 0.86 per 100,000 boys and 0.68 per 100,000 girls in Japan, and 1.98 per 100,000 boys and 1.65 per 100,000 girls in Latin America for 2005 through 2007. Bone cancer rates for 2005 through 2007 were approximately 2-fold higher in Argentina than in the United States. During the same period, Mexico registered the highest rate for kidney cancer and Colombia registered the highest rate for NHL, whereas the lowest rates were registered by Japan for kidney and by Japan and the United States for NHL. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in the adoption of current integrated treatment protocols in Latin American and other lower- and middle-income countries worldwide would avoid a substantial proportion of childhood cancer deaths.

Childhood cancer in Switzerland: mortality from 1951 to 1984.

Cancer mortality among children in Switzerland was analysed using (1) age-specific and age-standardized (0-14) rates from 1951 to 1984 and (2) comparison of observed numbers of deaths over the period 1960-1984 with expected one obtained by application of age-specific rates for the period 1951-1959 to the population structure of subsequent 5-year calendar periods. Certified mortality fell about 60% for leukaemias, 21% for lymphomas, 66% for Wilms' tumours, 40% for bone sarcomas and 30% for other and unspecified sites. Thus, the overall decline in childhood cancer mortality in Switzerland was around 45%, slightly more marked in females (-48%) than in males (-42%), and more pronounced in younger children (over 50% before age 5). This corresponds to an absolute number of about 50 deaths from childhood cancer per year avoided in the early 1980s as compared with expected numbers computed on the basis of rates registered in the 1950s (30 deaths per year for leukaemias alone). The estimated total number of deaths avoided during the whole period 1960-1980 was 820 (430 leukaemias alone). Trends in childhood cancer mortality persisted steadily downwards in the early 1980s, suggesting that further progress is being achieved in the treatment of these neoplasms.

Host genetics of invasive Aspergillus and Candida infections.

Invasive candidiasis and aspergillosis are major complications in surgical and onco-hematological patients, and still associated with an important morbidity and mortality. A large number of studies highlighted the potential role of host genetic polymorphisms that may influence susceptibility to fungal pathogens, but many were limited by insufficient statistical power, problematic design, and/or lack of replication. However, some relevant polymorphisms are now emerging from well-conducted studies whose associations have been replicated and/or are supported by strong biological evidence. Such polymorphisms together with other biomarkers may play a role in the prediction, diagnosis, and management of severe fungal infections in high-risk patients in the coming years.

Trends in mortality from leukemia in Europe: an update to 2009 and a projection to 2012.

We considered trends in mortality from leukemia in Europe over the period 1970-2009 using data from the World Health Organization. We computed age-standardized (world population) mortality rates, at all ages and in selected age groups, in 11 selected European countries, the European Union (EU) and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Japan. For the EU, we also provided projections of the mortality to 2012. Over the period considered, mortality from leukemia steadily declined in most European countries in children and young adults, as well as in western and southern Europe at middle-age (45-69 years); in central/eastern Europe, reductions at ages 45-69 started since the mid-late 1990s. In the EU, annual percent changes were -3.7% in males and -3.8% in females at age 0-14, -2% in both sexes at age 15-44, and -0.6% in males and -1% in females at middle-age and overall. No decline was observed at age 70 or more. Between 1997 and 2007, overall EU rates decreased from 5.4 to 4.8/100,000 males and from 3.4 to 2.9/100,000 females. Declines were from 6.2 to 5.5/100,000 males and from 3.7 to 3.2/100,000 females in the USA and from 3.9 to 3.5/100,000 males and from 2.5 to 2.0/100,000 females in Japan. Projected overall rates in the EU at 2012 are 4.3/100,000 males (-11% compared to 2007) and 2.6/100,000 females (-12%).

Integrative molecular bioinformatics study of human adrenocortical tumors : microRNA, tissue-specific target prediction, and pathway analysis.

MicroRNAs (miRs) are involved in the pathogenesis of several neoplasms; however, there are no data on their expression patterns and possible roles in adrenocortical tumors. Our objective was to study adrenocortical tumors by an integrative bioinformatics analysis involving miR and transcriptomics profiling, pathway analysis, and a novel, tissue-specific miR target prediction approach. Thirty-six tissue samples including normal adrenocortical tissues, benign adenomas, and adrenocortical carcinomas (ACC) were studied by simultaneous miR and mRNA profiling. A novel data-processing software was used to identify all predicted miR-mRNA interactions retrieved from PicTar, TargetScan, and miRBase. Tissue-specific target prediction was achieved by filtering out mRNAs with undetectable expression and searching for mRNA targets with inverse expression alterations as their regulatory miRs. Target sets and significant microarray data were subjected to Ingenuity Pathway Analysis. Six miRs with significantly different expression were found. miR-184 and miR-503 showed significantly higher, whereas miR-511 and miR-214 showed significantly lower expression in ACCs than in other groups. Expression of miR-210 was significantly lower in cortisol-secreting adenomas than in ACCs. By calculating the difference between dCT(miR-511) and dCT(miR-503) (delta cycle threshold), ACCs could be distinguished from benign adenomas with high sensitivity and specificity. Pathway analysis revealed the possible involvement of G2/M checkpoint damage in ACC pathogenesis. To our knowledge, this is the first report describing miR expression patterns and pathway analysis in sporadic adrenocortical tumors. miR biomarkers may be helpful for the diagnosis of adrenocortical malignancy. This tissue-specific target prediction approach may be used in other tumors too.

Prediction of resting energy expenditure from fat-free mass and fat mass.

On the basis of literature values, the relationship between fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM), and resting energy expenditure [REE (kJ/24 h)] was determined for 213 adults (86 males, 127 females). The objectives were to develop a mathematical model to predict REE based on body composition and to evaluate the contribution of FFM and FM to REE. The following regression equations were derived: 1) REE = 1265 + (93.3 x FFM) (r2 = 0.727, P < 0.001); 2) REE = 1114 + (90.4 x FFM) + (13.2 x FM) (R2 = 0.743, P < 0.001); and 3) REE = (108 x FFM) + (16.9 x FM) (R2 = 0.986, P < 0.001). FM explained only a small part of the variation remaining after FFM was accounted for. The models that include both FFM and FM are useful in examination of the changes in REE that occur with a change in both the FFM and FM. To account for more of the variability in REE, FFM will have to be divided into organ mass and skeletal muscle mass in future analyses.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care: external validation of a clinical prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) aims to assist GPs in safely ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain, and to guide management decisions. AIM: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS in an independent sample and to evaluate the generalisability to new patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard in general practice in Hesse, Germany. METHOD: Fifty-six German GPs recruited 844 males and females aged ≥ 35 years, presenting between July 2009 and February 2010 with chest pain. Baseline data included the items of the MHS. Data on the subsequent course of chest pain, investigations, hospitalisations, and medication were collected over 6 months and were reviewed by an independent expert panel. CHD was the reference condition. Measures of diagnostic accuracy included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and predictive values. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80 to 0.88). For a cut-off value of 3, the MHS showed a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI = 81.1% to 94.0%), a specificity of 63.5% (95% CI = 60.0% to 66.9%), a positive predictive value of 23.3% (95% CI = 19.2% to 28.0%), and a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% CI = 96.2% to 98.9%). CONCLUSION: Considering the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS, its generalisability, and ease of application, its use in clinical practice is recommended.

MGMT methylation analysis of glioblastoma on the Infinium methylation BeadChip identifies two distinct CpG regions associated with gene silencing and outcome, yielding a prediction model for comparisons across datasets, tumor grades, and CIMP-status.

The methylation status of the O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene is an important predictive biomarker for benefit from alkylating agent therapy in glioblastoma. Recent studies in anaplastic glioma suggest a prognostic value for MGMT methylation. Investigation of pathogenetic and epigenetic features of this intriguingly distinct behavior requires accurate MGMT classification to assess high throughput molecular databases. Promoter methylation-mediated gene silencing is strongly dependent on the location of the methylated CpGs, complicating classification. Using the HumanMethylation450 (HM-450K) BeadChip interrogating 176 CpGs annotated for the MGMT gene, with 14 located in the promoter, two distinct regions in the CpG island of the promoter were identified with high importance for gene silencing and outcome prediction. A logistic regression model (MGMT-STP27) comprising probes cg1243587 and cg12981137 provided good classification properties and prognostic value (kappa = 0.85; log-rank p < 0.001) using a training-set of 63 glioblastomas from homogenously treated patients, for whom MGMT methylation was previously shown to be predictive for outcome based on classification by methylation-specific PCR. MGMT-STP27 was successfully validated in an independent cohort of chemo-radiotherapy-treated glioblastoma patients (n = 50; kappa = 0.88; outcome, log-rank p < 0.001). Lower prevalence of MGMT methylation among CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) positive tumors was found in glioblastomas from The Cancer Genome Atlas than in low grade and anaplastic glioma cohorts, while in CIMP-negative gliomas MGMT was classified as methylated in approximately 50 % regardless of tumor grade. The proposed MGMT-STP27 prediction model allows mining of datasets derived on the HM-450K or HM-27K BeadChip to explore effects of distinct epigenetic context of MGMT methylation suspected to modulate treatment resistance in different tumor types.

An evaluation of volume-based morphometry for prediction of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease.

Voxel-based morphometry from conventional T1-weighted images has proved effective to quantify Alzheimer's disease (AD) related brain atrophy and to enable fairly accurate automated classification of AD patients, mild cognitive impaired patients (MCI) and elderly controls. Little is known, however, about the classification power of volume-based morphometry, where features of interest consist of a few brain structure volumes (e.g. hippocampi, lobes, ventricles) as opposed to hundreds of thousands of voxel-wise gray matter concentrations. In this work, we experimentally evaluate two distinct volume-based morphometry algorithms (FreeSurfer and an in-house algorithm called MorphoBox) for automatic disease classification on a standardized data set from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Results indicate that both algorithms achieve classification accuracy comparable to the conventional whole-brain voxel-based morphometry pipeline using SPM for AD vs elderly controls and MCI vs controls, and higher accuracy for classification of AD vs MCI and early vs late AD converters, thereby demonstrating the potential of volume-based morphometry to assist diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease.