A test of Jessor's problem behavior theory in a Eurasian and a Western European developmental context.

PURPOSE: The current study tested the applicability of Jessor's problem behavior theory (PBT) in national probability samples from Georgia and Switzerland. Comparisons focused on (1) the applicability of the problem behavior syndrome (PBS) in both developmental contexts, and (2) on the applicability of employing a set of theory-driven risk and protective factors in the prediction of problem behaviors. METHODS: School-based questionnaire data were collected from n = 18,239 adolescents in Georgia (n = 9499) and Switzerland (n = 8740) following the same protocol. Participants rated five measures of problem behaviors (alcohol and drug use, problems because of alcohol and drug use, and deviance), three risk factors (future uncertainty, depression, and stress), and three protective factors (family, peer, and school attachment). Final study samples included n = 9043 Georgian youth (mean age = 15.57; 58.8% females) and n = 8348 Swiss youth (mean age = 17.95; 48.5% females). Data analyses were completed using structural equation modeling, path analyses, and post hoc z-tests for comparisons of regression coefficients. RESULTS: Findings indicated that the PBS replicated in both samples, and that theory-driven risk and protective factors accounted for 13% and 10% in Georgian and Swiss samples, respectively in the PBS, net the effects by demographic variables. Follow-up z-tests provided evidence of some differences in the magnitude, but not direction, in five of six individual paths by country. CONCLUSION: PBT and the PBS find empirical support in these Eurasian and Western European samples; thus, Jessor's theory holds value and promise in understanding the etiology of adolescent problem behaviors outside of the United States.

Natural selection in a postglacial range expansion: the case of the colour cline in the European barn owl.

Gradients of variation-or clines-have always intrigued biologists. Classically, they have been interpreted as the outcomes of antagonistic interactions between selection and gene flow. Alternatively, clines may also establish neutrally with isolation by distance (IBD) or secondary contact between previously isolated populations. The relative importance of natural selection and these two neutral processes in the establishment of clinal variation can be tested by comparing genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers and at the studied trait. A third neutral process, surfing of a newly arisen mutation during the colonization of a new habitat, is more difficult to test. Here, we designed a spatially explicit approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) simulation framework to evaluate whether the strong cline in the genetically based reddish coloration observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) arose as a by-product of a range expansion or whether selection has to be invoked to explain this colour cline, for which we have previously ruled out the actions of IBD or secondary contact. Using ABC simulations and genetic data on 390 individuals from 20 locations genotyped at 22 microsatellites loci, we first determined how barn owls colonized Europe after the last glaciation. Using these results in new simulations on the evolution of the colour phenotype, and assuming various genetic architectures for the colour trait, we demonstrate that the observed colour cline cannot be due to the surfing of a neutral mutation. Taking advantage of spatially explicit ABC, which proved to be a powerful method to disentangle the respective roles of selection and drift in range expansions, we conclude that the formation of the colour cline observed in the barn owl must be due to natural selection.

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation: activity in Switzerland compared with surrounding European countries.

Haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a highly specialised procedure used to treat malignancies of the lymphohaematopoietic system as well as some acquired and inherited disorders of the blood. This analysis by the Swiss Blood Stem Cell Transplantation Group, based on data from 2008-2011, describes, treatment rates in Switzerland for specific indications and compares this with data from Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, corrected for the size of the population. Differences in transplant rates, in rates for particular indications, and in the use of specific transplant technologies such as use of unrelated donors, use of cord blood or mismatched family donors are described. These data are put in correlation with donor availability from international registries and with number of transplant teams and number of procedures per team all corrected for population size.

Contexts and typologies in the analysis of welfare state legitimacy : a social psychological approach to political opinion formation

This dissertation analyses public opinion towards the welfare state across 29 European countries. Based on an interdisciplinary approach combining social psychological, sociological, and public opinion approaches to political opinion formation, it investigates how social position and shared beliefs shape perceived legitimacy of welfare institutions, and how social contexts impact on the processes of opinion formation. Drawing on social representations theory, as well as socialization and self-interest approaches, the dissertation analyses the role of social position in lay support for institutional solidarity. Normative beliefs-defined as preferred views regarding the organisation of social relations-mediate the effect of social position on welfare support. In addition, drawing on public opinion literature, the dissertation analyses opinion formation as a function of country-level structural (e.g., level of social spending, unemployment) and ideological factors (e.g., level of meritocracy). The dissertation comprises two theoretical and four empirical chapters. Three of the empirical chapters use data from the European Social Survey 2008. Using multilevel and typological approaches, the dissertation contributes to welfare attitude literature by showing that normative beliefs, such as distrust or egalitarianism, function as underlying mechanisms that link social position to policy attitudes (Chapter 3), and that characteristics of the national contexts influence the processes of political opinion formation (Chapters 3 and 4). Chapter 5 proposes and predicts a typology of the relationship between attitudes towards solidarity and attitudes towards control, reflecting the two central domains of government intervention. Finally, Chapter 6 examines welfare support in the realm of action and social protest, using data from a survey on Spanish Indigados activists. The findings of this dissertation inform contemporary debates about welfare state legitimacy and retrenchment. - Cette thèse avait pour but d'analyser l'opinion publique envers l'Etat social dans 29 pays européens. Basée sur une approche interdisciplinaire qui combine des perspectives psycho-sociales, sociologiques et d'opinion publique sur la formation d'opinion politique, la thèse étudie comment la position sociale et les croyances partagées façonnent la légitimité perçue des institutions de l'Etat social, et comment les contextes sociaux influencent les processus de formation d'opinion. Basée sur la théorie des représentations sociales, ainsi qu'une approche de socialisation et d'intérêt propre, cette thèse analyse le rôle des positions sociales dans le soutien envers la solidarité institutionnelle. Les croyances normatives-définies comme les visions préférées de l'organisation des rapports sociaux-médiatisent l'effet de la position sociale sur le soutien pour l'Etat social. De plus, s'inspirant de la littérature sur l'opinion publique, la thèse analyse la formation d'opinion en fonction des facteurs structurels (ex. le taux de dépenses sociales, le chômage) et idéologiques (ex. le degré de méritocratie). Cette thèse est composée de deux chapitres théoriques et quatre chapitres empiriques. Trois chapitres empiriques utilisent des données provenant de l'enquête European Social Survey 2008. Appliquant des approches multi-niveux et typoloqiques, la thèse contribue à la littérature sur les attitudes envers l'Etat social en montrant que les croyances normatives, telles que la méfiance ou l'égalitarisme, fonctionnent comme des mécanismes sous-jacents qui relient la position sociale aux attitudes politiques (Chapitre 3), et que les caractéristiques des contextes nationaux influencent les processus de formation d'opinion politique (Chapitres 3 et 4). Le chapitre 5 propose et prédit une typologie sur le rapport entre les attitudes envers la solidarité et celles envers le contrôle, renvoyant à deux domaines centraux de régulation étatique. Enfin, le chapitre 6 examine le soutien à l'Etat social dans le domaine de l'action protestataire, utilisant des données d'une enquête menée auprès des militants espagnols du mouvement des Indignés. Les résultats de cette thèse apportent des éléments qui éclairent les débats contemporains sur la légitimité de l'Etat social et son démantèlement.

The 2006 Eiger rockslide, European Alps

In July 2006, approximately 2 million m3 of massive limestone began to move on the east flank of the Eiger in central Switzerland. For more than two years after the initial failure, the rock mass moved at rates of up to 70 cm per day. A detailed analysis of the structures and velocities of the different moving blocks was conducted with the aid of terrestrial laser scanning. The moving rock mass included a rear block that subsided, pushing a frontal block forward. Movement directions were controlled by discontinuity sets that formed wedges bounded on one side by sub-vertical bedding planes. The instability was, until recently, buttressed by a glacier. Slope observations and results of continuum and discontinuum modeling indicate that the structure of the rock mass and topography were the main causes of the instability. Progressive weathering and mechanical fatigue of the rock mass appear to have led to the failure. A dynamic analytical model further indicates that the rockslide was primarily controlled by a reduction in the strength of discontinuities, the effects of ice deformation, and ? to a limited extent ? groundwater flow. This study shows that realistic and simple instability models can be constructed for rock-slope failures if high-resolution data are available.

Statistical discrimination and employers' recruitment : Practices for low-skilled workers

This paper deals with the recruitment strategies of employers in the low-skilled segment of the labour market. We focus on low-skilled workers because they are overrepresented among jobless people and constitute the bulk of the clientele included in various activation and labour market programmes. A better understanding of the constraints and opportunities of interventions in this labour market segment may help improve their quality and effectiveness. On the basis of qualitative interviews with 41 employers in six European countries, we find that the traditional signals known to be used as statistical discrimination devices (old age, immigrant status and unemployment) play a somewhat reduced role, since these profiles are overrepresented among applicants for low skill positions. However, we find that other signals, mostly considered to be indicators of motivation, have a bigger impact in the selection process. These tend to concern the channel through which the contact with a prospective candidate is made. Unsolicited applications and recommendations from already employed workers emit a positive signal, whereas the fact of being referred by the public employment office is associated with the likelihood of lower motivation.

Employment risk, unemployment insurance and search strategies: a disaggregated equilibrium approach with application to the Swiss labour market in the 1990-ies

The Organization of the Thesis The remainder of the thesis comprises five chapters and a conclusion. The next chapter formalizes the envisioned theory into a tractable model. Section 2.2 presents a formal description of the model economy: the individual heterogeneity, the individual objective, the UI setting, the population dynamics and the equilibrium. The welfare and efficiency criteria for qualifying various equilibrium outcomes are proposed in section 2.3. The fourth section shows how the model-generated information can be computed. Chapter 3 transposes the model from chapter 2 in conditions that enable its use in the analysis of individual labor market strategies and their implications for the labor market equilibrium. In section 3.2 the Swiss labor market data sets, stylized facts, and the UI system are presented. The third section outlines and motivates the parameterization method. In section 3.4 the model's replication ability is evaluated and some aspects of the parameter choice are discussed. Numerical solution issues can be found in the appendix. Chapter 4 examines the determinants of search-strategic behavior in the model economy and its implications for the labor market aggregates. In section 4.2, the unemployment duration distribution is examined and related to search strategies. Section 4.3 shows how the search- strategic behavior is influenced by the UI eligibility and section 4.4 how it is determined by individual heterogeneity. The composition effects generated by search strategies in labor market aggregates are examined in section 4.5. The last section evaluates the model's replication of empirical unemployment escape frequencies reported in Sheldon [67]. Chapter 5 applies the model economy to examine the effects on the labor market equilibrium of shocks to the labor market risk structure, to the deep underlying labor market structure and to the UI setting. Section 5.2 examines the effects of the labor market risk structure on the labor market equilibrium and the labor market strategic behavior. The effects of alterations in the labor market deep economic structural parameters, i.e. individual preferences and production technology, are shown in Section 5.3. Finally, the UI setting impacts on the labor market are studied in Section 5.4. This section also evaluates the role of the UI authority monitoring and the differences in the Way changes in the replacement rate and the UI benefit duration affect the labor market. In chapter 6 the model economy is applied in counterfactual experiments to assess several aspects of the Swiss labor market movements in the nineties. Section 6.2 examines the two equilibria characterizing the Swiss labor market in the nineties, the " growth" equilibrium with a "moderate" UI regime and the "recession" equilibrium with a more "generous" UI. Section 6.3 evaluates the isolated effects of the structural shocks, while the isolated effects of the UI reforms are analyzed in section 6.4. Particular dimensions of the UI reforms, the duration, replacement rate and the tax rate effects, are studied in section 6.5, while labor market equilibria without benefits are evaluated in section 6.6. In section 6.7 the structural and institutional interactions that may act as unemployment amplifiers are discussed in view of the obtained results. A welfare analysis based on individual welfare in different structural and UI settings is presented in the eighth section. Finally, the results are related to more favorable unemployment trends after 1997. The conclusion evaluates the features embodied in the model economy with respect to the resulting model dynamics to derive lessons from the model design." The thesis ends by proposing guidelines for future improvements of the model and directions for further research.

Blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol targets for prevention of recurrent strokes and cognitive decline in the hypertensive patient: design of the European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment randomized trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The SBP values to be achieved by antihypertensive therapy in order to maximize reduction of cardiovascular outcomes are unknown; neither is it clear whether in patients with a previous cardiovascular event, the optimal values are lower than in the low-to-moderate risk hypertensive patients, or a more cautious blood pressure (BP) reduction should be obtained. Because of the uncertainty whether 'the lower the better' or the 'J-curve' hypothesis is correct, the European Society of Hypertension and the Chinese Hypertension League have promoted a randomized trial comparing antihypertensive treatment strategies aiming at three different SBP targets in hypertensive patients with a recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack. As the optimal level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) level is also unknown in these patients, LDL-C-lowering has been included in the design. PROTOCOL DESIGN: The European Society of Hypertension-Chinese Hypertension League Stroke in Hypertension Optimal Treatment trial is a prospective multinational, randomized trial with a 3 × 2 factorial design comparing: three different SBP targets (1, <145-135; 2, <135-125; 3, <125 mmHg); two different LDL-C targets (target A, 2.8-1.8; target B, <1.8 mmol/l). The trial is to be conducted on 7500 patients aged at least 65 years (2500 in Europe, 5000 in China) with hypertension and a stroke or transient ischaemic attack 1-6 months before randomization. Antihypertensive and statin treatments will be initiated or modified using suitable registered agents chosen by the investigators, in order to maintain patients within the randomized SBP and LDL-C windows. All patients will be followed up every 3 months for BP and every 6 months for LDL-C. Ambulatory BP will be measured yearly. OUTCOMES: Primary outcome is time to stroke (fatal and non-fatal). Important secondary outcomes are: time to first major cardiovascular event; cognitive decline (Montreal Cognitive Assessment) and dementia. All major outcomes will be adjudicated by committees blind to randomized allocation. A Data and Safety Monitoring Board has open access to data and can recommend trial interruption for safety. SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATION: It has been calculated that 925 patients would reach the primary outcome after a mean 4-year follow-up, and this should provide at least 80% power to detect a 25% stroke difference between SBP targets and a 20% difference between LDL-C targets.