277 resultados para Spatial Empirical bayes Smoothing
Resumo:
The impact of round-the-clock cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Gram stain on overnight empirical therapy for suspected central nervous system (CNS) infections was investigated. All consecutive overnight CSF Gram stains between 2006 and 2011 were included. The impact of a positive or a negative test on empirical therapy was evaluated and compared to other clinical and biological indications based on institutional guidelines. Bacterial CNS infection was documented in 51/241 suspected cases. Overnight CSF Gram stain was positive in 24/51. Upon validation, there were two false-positive and one false-negative results. The sensitivity and specificity were 41 and 99 %, respectively. All patients but one had other indications for empirical therapy than Gram stain alone. Upon obtaining the Gram result, empirical therapy was modified in 7/24, including the addition of an appropriate agent (1), addition of unnecessary agents (3) and simplification of unnecessary combination therapy (3/11). Among 74 cases with a negative CSF Gram stain and without formal indication for empirical therapy, antibiotics were withheld in only 29. Round-the-clock CSF Gram stain had a low impact on overnight empirical therapy for suspected CNS infections and was associated with several misinterpretation errors. Clinicians showed little confidence in CSF direct examination for simplifying or withholding therapy before definite microbiological results.
Resumo:
Many models proposed to study the evolution of collective action rely on a formalism that represents social interactions as n-player games between individuals adopting discrete actions such as cooperate and defect. Despite the importance of spatial structure in biological collective action, the analysis of n-player games games in spatially structured populations has so far proved elusive. We address this problem by considering mixed strategies and by integrating discrete-action n-player games into the direct fitness approach of social evolution theory. This allows to conveniently identify convergence stable strategies and to capture the effect of population structure by a single structure coefficient, namely, the pairwise (scaled) relatedness among interacting individuals. As an application, we use our mathematical framework to investigate collective action problems associated with the provision of three different kinds of collective goods, paradigmatic of a vast array of helping traits in nature: "public goods" (both providers and shirkers can use the good, e.g., alarm calls), "club goods" (only providers can use the good, e.g., participation in collective hunting), and "charity goods" (only shirkers can use the good, e.g., altruistic sacrifice). We show that relatedness promotes the evolution of collective action in different ways depending on the kind of collective good and its economies of scale. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for relatedness, the kind of collective good, and the economies of scale in theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of collective action.
Resumo:
Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-
Resumo:
How do plants that move and spread across landscapes become branded as weeds and thereby objects of contention and control? We outline a political ecology approach that builds on a Lefebvrian understanding of the production of space, identifying three scalar moments that make plants into 'weeds' in different spatial contexts and landscapes. The three moments are: the operational scale, which relates to empirical phenomena in nature and society; the observational scale, which defines formal concepts of these phenomena and their implicit or explicit 'biopower' across institutional and spatial categories; and the interpretive scale, which is communicated through stories and actions expressing human feelings or concerns regarding the phenomena and processes of socio-spatial change. Together, these three scalar moments interact to produce a political ecology of landscape transformation, where biophysical and socio-cultural processes of daily life encounter formal categories and modes of control as well as emotive and normative expectations in shaping landscapes. Using three exemplar 'weeds' - acacia, lantana and ambrosia - our political ecology approach to landscape transformations shows that weeds do not act alone and that invasives are not inherently bad organisms. Humans and weeds go together; plants take advantage of spaces and opportunities that we create. Human desires for preserving certain social values in landscapes in contradiction to actual transformations is often at the heart of definitions of and conflicts over weeds or invasives.
Resumo:
Allocentric spatial memory, the memory for locations coded in relation to objects comprising our environment, is a fundamental component of episodic memory and is dependent on the integrity of the hippocampal formation in adulthood. Previous research from different laboratories reported that basic allocentric spatial memory abilities are reliably observed in children after 2 years of age. Based on work performed in monkeys and rats, we had proposed that the functional maturation of direct entorhinal cortex projections to the CA1 field of the hippocampus might underlie the emergence of basic allocentric spatial memory. We also proposed that the protracted development of the dentate gyrus and its projections to the CA3 field of the hippocampus might underlie the development of high-resolution allocentric spatial memory capacities, based on the essential contribution of these structures to the process known as pattern separation. Here, we present an experiment designed to assess the development of spatial pattern separation capacities and its impact on allocentric spatial memory performance in children from 18 to 48 months of age. We found that: (1) allocentric spatial memory performance improved with age, (2) as compared to younger children, a greater number of children older than 36 months advanced to the final stage requiring the highest degree of spatial resolution, and (3) children that failed at different stages exhibited difficulties in discriminating locations that required higher spatial resolution abilities. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that improvements in human spatial memory performance might be linked to improvements in pattern separation capacities.
Resumo:
This study aims at understanding the evolutionary processes at work in specialized species interactions. Prom the macroevolutionary perspective, coevolution among specialized taxa was proposed to be one of the major processes generating biodiversity. We challenge this idea from the theoretical and practical perspective and through a literature review and show that the major hypotheses linking coevolutionary process with macroevolutionary patterns do not necessarily predict lineage co diversification and parallel speciation, limit¬ing the utility of the comparative phylogenenetic approach for investigating coevolution¬ary processes. We also point to the rarity of observed long-term coevolutionary dynamics among lineages and propose that coevolution rather occurs in shorter timescales, followed by ecological fitting. Prom the empirical point, we focus on the nursery pollination interaction between the European globeflower Trollius europaeus (Ranunculaceae) and its associated Chiastocheta flies (Anthomyiidae; Diptera) as a model system of evolution and maintenance of special¬ized interactions. The flies are obligate parasites of the seeds, but also pollinate the plant - it was thus proposed that both species are mutually dependent. Contrasting with the paradigm used for two decades of research on this system, we show that the female fitness component of the plant is similar in the populations with and without Chiastocheta. The plant is thus not exclusively dependent on the flies for reproduction. We discuss this result in the context of the factors responsible for the evolution of mutualistic systems. Understanding the evolution of a biological system requires understanding of its phylo- genetic context. Previous studies showed large mismatch between mtDNA phylogeny and morphological taxonomy in Chiastocheta. By using a large set of RAD-sequencing loci, we delineate the species limits that are congruent with morphology, and show that the discordance is best explained by the scenario of mitochondrial capture among fly species. Finally, we examine this system from a phylogeographic perspective, and identify the lack of congruence in spatial genetic structures of the plant and associated insects across their whole geographic range. The flies show lower numbers of spatial genetic groups than the plant, indicating that not all of the plant réfugia were shared by all the fly species or that the migration dynamics homogenized some of the groups. The incongruence in spatial genetic patterns indicates that fly migrations were largely independent from the genetic background of the plant, following rather a scenario of resource tracking, without the signature of coevolutionary process at this scale. Indeed, while the flies require the plant to survive climatic oscillations, the opposite is not true. Eventually, we show that there is no phylogenetic signal of spatial genetic structures, meaning that neither histories nor life- history traits are shared among closely related species and that species are characterized by unique trajectories of their genes. -- Cette étude vise à comprendre les processus évolutifs à l'oeuvre au sein d'interactions en¬tre espèces spécialisées. Du point de vue macroévolutif, la coévolution entre les taxons spécialisée a été considérée comme l'un des principaux processus générateur de biodiversité. Nous contestons cette idée du point de vue théorique et pratique à travers une revue de la littérature. Nous montrons que les hypothèses majeures reliant les processus coévolutifs avec les patterns de diversité au niveau macroévolutif ne prédisent pas nécessairement la co- diversification des lignées et leur spéciation parallèle, ce qui limite l'utilité de l'approche de phylogénie comparative pour étudier les processus coévolutifs . Nous rappelons également le peu d'exemples de dynamique coévolutive à long terme et proposons que la coévolution se produit plutôt dans des intervalles courts, suivis d'ajustements écologiques. Du point empirique, nous nous concentrons sur l'interaction de pollinisation entre le Trolle d'Europe Trollius europaeus (Ranunculaceae) et ses pollinisateurs associés, du genre Chiastocheta (Anthomyiidae; Diptera) en tant que système-modèle pour étudier l'évolution et le maintien des interactions spécialisées. Les mouches sont des parasites obligatoires des semences, mais pollinisent également la plante. Il a donc été proposé que les deux espèces soient mutuellement dépendantes. Contrastant avec le paradigme utilisé pendant deux décennies de recherche sur ce système, nous montrons, que la composante de fitness femelle de la plante est similaire dans les populations avec et sans Chiastocheta. La plante ne dépend donc pas exclusivement de son interaction avec les mouches pour la reproduction. Nous discutons de ce résultat dans le contexte des facteurs responsables de l'évolution des systèmes mutualistes. Comprendre l'évolution d'un système biologique nécessite la compréhension de son con- texte phylogénétique. Des études antérieures ont montré, chez Chiastocheta, de grandes disparités entre les phylogénies obtenues à partir d'ADN mitochondrial et la taxonomie basée sur les critères morphologiques. En utilisant un grand nombre de loci obtenus par RAD-sequencing, nous traçons les limites des espèces, qui concordent avec les car¬actéristiques morphologies, et montrons que la discordance s'explique en fait par un scénario de capture mitochondriale entre espèces de mouches. Enfin, nous examinons le système d'un point de vue phylogéographique, et identi¬fions les incohérences entre structurations génétiques spatiales de la plante et des insectes associés dans toute leur aire de distribution géographique. Les mouches présentent un nombre de groupes génétiques inférieur à la plante, indiquant que tous les refuges de la plante n'étaient pas partagés par toutes les espèces de mouches ou que les dynamiques migratoires ont homogénéisés certains des groupes chez les mouches. Les différences ob¬servées dans les patrons de structuration génétique spatiale indique que les migrations et dispersions des mouches ont été indépendantes du contexte génétique de la plante, et ces dernières ont été uniquement tributaires de la disponibilité des ressources, sans qu'il n'y ait de signature du processus de coévolution à cette échelle. En effet, tandis que les mouches ont besoin de la plante pour survivre aux oscillations climatiques, le contraire n'est pas exact. Finalement, nous montrons qu'il n'y a pas de signal phylogénétique des structurations génétiques spatiales chez les mouches, ce qui signifie que ni l'histoire, ni les traits d'histoire de vie ne sont partagés entre les espèces phylogénétiquement proches et que les espèces sont caractérisées par des trajectoires uniques de leurs gènes.
Resumo:
Snow cover is an important control in mountain environments and a shift of the snow-free period triggered by climate warming can strongly impact ecosystem dynamics. Changing snow patterns can have severe effects on alpine plant distribution and diversity. It thus becomes urgent to provide spatially explicit assessments of snow cover changes that can be incorporated into correlative or empirical species distribution models (SDMs). Here, we provide for the first time a with a lower overestimation comparison of two physically based snow distribution models (PREVAH and SnowModel) to produce snow cover maps (SCMs) at a fine spatial resolution in a mountain landscape in Austria. SCMs have been evaluated with SPOT-HRVIR images and predictions of snow water equivalent from the two models with ground measurements. Finally, SCMs of the two models have been compared under a climate warming scenario for the end of the century. The predictive performances of PREVAH and SnowModel were similar when validated with the SPOT images. However, the tendency to overestimate snow cover was slightly lower with SnowModel during the accumulation period, whereas it was lower with PREVAH during the melting period. The rate of true positives during the melting period was two times higher on average with SnowModel with a lower overestimation of snow water equivalent. Our results allow for recommending the use of SnowModel in SDMs because it better captures persisting snow patches at the end of the snow season, which is important when modelling the response of species to long-lasting snow cover and evaluating whether they might survive under climate change.
Resumo:
Animal societies rely on interactions between group members to effectively communicate and coordinate their actions. To date, the transmission properties of interaction networks formed by direct physical contacts have been extensively studied for many animal societies and in all cases found to inhibit spreading. Such direct interactions do not, however, represent the only viable pathways. When spreading agents can persist in the environment, indirect transmission via 'same-place, different-time' spatial coincidences becomes possible. Previous studies have neglected these indirect pathways and their role in transmission. Here, we use rock ant colonies, a model social species whose flat nest geometry, coupled with individually tagged workers, allowed us to build temporally and spatially explicit interaction networks in which edges represent either direct physical contacts or indirect spatial coincidences. We show how the addition of indirect pathways allows the network to enhance or inhibit the spreading of different types of agent. This dual-functionality arises from an interplay between the interaction-strength distribution generated by the ants' movement and environmental decay characteristics of the spreading agent. These findings offer a general mechanism for understanding how interaction patterns might be tuned in animal societies to control the simultaneous transmission of harmful and beneficial agents.
Resumo:
Regulation has in many cases been delegated to independent agencies, which has led to the question of how democratic accountability of these agencies is ensured. There are few empirical approaches to agency accountability. We offer such an approach, resting upon three propositions. First, we scrutinize agency accountability both de jure (accountability is ensured by formal rights of accountability 'fora' to receive information and impose consequences) and de facto (the capability of fora to use these rights depends on resources and decision costs that affect the credibility of their sanctioning capacity). Second, accountability must be evaluated separately at political, operational and managerial levels. And third, at each level accountability is enacted by a system of several (partially) interdependent fora, forming together an accountability regime. The proposed framework is applied to the case of the German Bundesnetzagentur's accountability regime, which shows its suitability for empirical purposes. Regulatory agencies are often considered as independent, yet accountable. This article provides a realistic framework for the study of accountability 'regimes' in which they are embedded. It emphasizes the need to identify the various actors (accountability fora) to which agencies are formally accountable (parliamentary committees, auditing bodies, courts, and so on) and to consider possible relationships between them. It argues that formal accountability 'on paper', as defined in official documents, does not fully account for de facto accountability, which depends on the resources possessed by the fora (mainly information-processing and decision-making capacities) and the credibility of their sanctioning capacities. The article applies this framework to the German Bundesnetzagentur.
Resumo:
Due to the existence of free software and pedagogical guides, the use of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been further democratized in recent years. Nowadays, it is quite usual for practitioners and decision makers with no or little knowledge in operational research to run their own efficiency analysis. Within DEA, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. Four alternative models, each user-friendly and easily accessible to practitioners and decision makers, are performed using empirical data of 90 primary schools in the State of Geneva, Switzerland. Results show that the majority of alternative models deliver divergent results. From a political and a managerial standpoint, these diverging results could lead to potentially ineffective decisions. As no consensus emerges on the best model to use, practitioners and decision makers may be tempted to select the model that is right for them, in other words, the model that best reflects their own preferences. Further studies should investigate how an appropriate multi-criteria decision analysis method could help decision makers to select the right model.
Resumo:
Directional cell growth requires that cells read and interpret shallow chemical gradients, but how the gradient directional information is identified remains elusive. We use single-cell analysis and mathematical modeling to define the cellular gradient decoding network in yeast. Our results demonstrate that the spatial information of the gradient signal is read locally within the polarity site complex using double-positive feedback between the GTPase Cdc42 and trafficking of the receptor Ste2. Spatial decoding critically depends on low Cdc42 activity, which is maintained by the MAPK Fus3 through sequestration of the Cdc42 activator Cdc24. Deregulated Cdc42 or Ste2 trafficking prevents gradient decoding and leads to mis-oriented growth. Our work discovers how a conserved set of components assembles a network integrating signal intensity and directionality to decode the spatial information contained in chemical gradients.
Resumo:
The present study analyses the spatial pattern of quaternary gravitational slope deformations (GSD) and historical/present-day instabilities (HPI) inventoried in the Swiss Rhone Valley. The main objective is to test if these events are clustered (spatial attraction) or randomly distributed (spatial independency). Moreover, analogies with the cluster behaviour of earthquakes inventoried in the same area were examined. The Ripley's K-function was applied to measure and test for randomness. This indicator allows describing the spatial pattern of a point process at increasing distance values. To account for the non-constant intensity of the geological phenomena, a modification of the K-function for inhomogeneous point processes was adopted. The specific goal is to explore the spatial attraction (i.e. cluster behaviour) among landslide events and between gravitational slope deformations and earthquakes. To discover if the two classes of instabilities (GSD and HPI) are spatially independently distributed, the cross K-function was computed. The results show that all the geological events under study are spatially clustered at a well-defined distance range. GSD and HPI show a similar pattern distribution with clusters in the range 0.75?9 km. The cross K-function reveals an attraction between the two classes of instabilities in the range 0?4 km confirming that HPI are more prone to occur within large-scale slope deformations. The K-function computed for GSD and earthquakes indicates that both present a cluster tendency in the range 0?10 km, suggesting that earthquakes could represent a potential predisposing factor which could influence the GSD distribution.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: To identify and quantify sources of variability in scores on the speech, spatial, and qualities of hearing scale (SSQ) and its short forms among normal-hearing and hearing-impaired subjects using a French-language version of the SSQ. DESIGN: Multi-regression analyses of SSQ scores were performed using age, gender, years of education, hearing loss, and hearing-loss asymmetry as predictors. Similar analyses were performed for each subscale (Speech, Spatial, and Qualities), for several SSQ short forms, and for differences in subscale scores. STUDY SAMPLE: One hundred normal-hearing subjects (NHS) and 230 hearing-impaired subjects (HIS). RESULTS: Hearing loss in the better ear and hearing-loss asymmetry were the two main predictors of scores on the overall SSQ, the three main subscales, and the SSQ short forms. The greatest difference between the NHS and HIS was observed for the Speech subscale, and the NHS showed scores well below the maximum of 10. An age effect was observed mostly on the Speech subscale items, and the number of years of education had a significant influence on several Spatial and Qualities subscale items. CONCLUSION: Strong similarities between SSQ scores obtained across different populations and languages, and between SSQ and short forms, underline their potential international use.