Acting, predicting and intervening in a socio-hydrological world

This paper asks a simple question: if humans and their actions co-evolve with hydrological systems (Sivapalan et al., 2012), what is the role of hydrological scientists, who are also humans, within this system? To put it more directly, as traditionally there is a supposed separation of scientists and society, can we maintain this separation as socio-hydrologists studying a socio-hydrological world? This paper argues that we cannot, using four linked sections. The first section draws directly upon the concern of science-technology studies to make a case to the (socio-hydrological) community that we need to be sensitive to constructivist accounts of science in general and socio-hydrology in particular. I review three positions taken by such accounts and apply them to hydrological science, supported with specific examples: (a) the ways in which scientific activities frame socio-hydrological research, such that at least some of the knowledge that we obtain is constructed by precisely what we do; (b) the need to attend to how socio-hydrological knowledge is used in decision-making, as evidence suggests that hydrological knowledge does not flow simply from science into policy; and (c) the observation that those who do not normally label themselves as socio-hydrologists may actually have a profound knowledge of socio-hydrology. The second section provides an empirical basis for considering these three issues by detailing the history of the practice of roughness parameterisation, using parameters like Manning's n, in hydrological and hydraulic models for flood inundation mapping. This history sustains the third section that is a more general consideration of one type of socio-hydrological practice: predictive modelling. I show that as part of a socio-hydrological analysis, hydrological prediction needs to be thought through much more carefully: not only because hydrological prediction exists to help inform decisions that are made about water management; but also because those predictions contain assumptions, the predictions are only correct in so far as those assumptions hold, and for those assumptions to hold, the socio-hydrological system (i.e. the world) has to be shaped so as to include them. Here, I add to the ``normal'' view that ideally our models should represent the world around us, to argue that for our models (and hence our predictions) to be valid, we have to make the world look like our models. Decisions over how the world is modelled may transform the world as much as they represent the world. Thus, socio-hydrological modelling has to become a socially accountable process such that the world is transformed, through the implications of modelling, in a fair and just manner. This leads into the final section of the paper where I consider how socio-hydrological research may be made more socially accountable, in a way that is both sensitive to the constructivist critique (Sect. 1), but which retains the contribution that hydrologists might make to socio-hydrological studies. This includes (1) working with conflict and controversy in hydrological science, rather than trying to eliminate them; (2) using hydrological events to avoid becoming locked into our own frames of explanation and prediction; (3) being empirical and experimental but in a socio-hydrological sense; and (4) co-producing socio-hydrological predictions. I will show how this might be done through a project that specifically developed predictive models for making interventions in river catchments to increase high river flow attenuation. Therein, I found myself becoming detached from my normal disciplinary networks and attached to the co-production of a predictive hydrological model with communities normally excluded from the practice of hydrological science.

Extension des prestations de type "équipe mobile" aux foyers socio-éducatifs: projet pilote dans le canton de Vaud [Extension of mobile team services to socio-educational home: pilot project in the Vaud canton].

L'objectif principal de ce projet d'extension des prestations, de type Antenne d'intervention dans le milieu pour enfants et adolescents (AIMEA) aux foyers socio-éducatifs pour l'ensemble du canton de Vaud, vise à décloisonner les champs socio-éducatifs et pédopsychiatriques. 64 patients ont fait l'objet d'une évaluation au cours de la phase pilote (après une année de fonctionnement). De plus, une enquête de satisfaction a été effectuée soit à la fin du suivi, soit à la fin de la phase pilote de ce projet (au 31.12.2012). Cette expérience très positive, relevée par une grande majorité des acteurs impliqués dans la prise en charge socio-éducative et pédopsychiatrique des mineurs, suscite un désir d'extension des prestations de type équipe mobile à d'autres structures ou à d'autres types de situations. The main objective of this project about mobile team service extension to the socio-educational home of the whole Vaud canton targets to decompartmentalize the socio-educational and youth-psychiatry domains. 64 patient were assessed during this pilot phase (after one-year functioning). In addition, a satisfaction survey was done either at the end of the follow up or at the end of the pilot phase of the project (31.12.2012). This experience was very positive as highlighted by the vast majority of the person involved in the socio-educational and youth-psychiatric domains taking care of youth. A desire of extension of mobile team service to other institutional structure or other situations was expressed.

What interventions facilitate client progress through the assimilation model? A task analysis of interventions in the psychodynamic treatment of depression.

A variation of task analysis was used to build an empirical model of how therapists may facilitate client assimilation process, described in the Assimilation of Problematic Experiences Scale. A rational model was specified and considered in light of an analysis of therapist in-session performances (N = 117) drawn from six inpatient therapies for depression. The therapist interventions were measured by the Comprehensive Psychotherapeutic Interventions Rating Scale. Consistent with the rational model, confronting interventions were particularly useful in helping clients elaborate insight. However, rather than there being a small number of progress-related interventions at lower levels of assimilation, therapists' use of interventions was broader than hypothesized and drew from a wide range of therapeutic approaches. Concerning the higher levels of assimilation, there was insufficient data to allow an analysis of the therapist's progress-related interventions.

Spatial variation in the decline of European birds as shown by the barn owl Tyto alba diet

Capsule The analysis of 635 papers about the diet of the European Barn Owl Tyto alba showed that 83 751 birds were captured out of 3.44 million prey items (2.4%). Birds were more frequently captured on islands than mainland, in southern than northern Europe and in eastern than western Europe. Between 1860 and 2012, the consumption of birds decreased in northern and eastern Europe. Among avian prey, the House Sparrow Passer domesticus, the most frequently captured bird (65.7%), decreased in frequency during the last 150 years in eastern Europe.

The interplay of spatial and climatic landscapes in the genetic distribution of a South American parrot

AimOur aim was to understand the interplay of heterogeneous climatic and spatial landscapes in shaping the distribution of nuclear microsatellite variation in burrowing parrots, Cyanoliseus patagonus. Given the marked phenotypic differences between populations of burrowing parrots we hypothesized an important role of geographical as well climatic heterogeneity in the population structure of this species. LocationSouthern South America. MethodsWe applied a landscape genetics approach to investigate the explicit patterns of genetic spatial autocorrelation based on both geography and climate using spatial principal component analysis (sPCA). This necessitated a novel statistical estimation of the species climatic landscape, considering temperature- and precipitation-based variables separately to evaluate their weight in shaping the distribution of genetic variation in our model system. ResultsGeographical and climatic heterogeneity successfully explained molecular variance in burrowing parrots. sPCA divided the species distribution into two main areas, Patagonia and the pre-Andes, which were connected by an area of geographical and climatic transition. Moreover, sPCA revealed cryptic and conservation-relevant genetic structure: the pre-Andean populations and the transition localities were each divided into two groups, each management units for conservation. Main conclusionssPCA, a method originally developed for spatial genetics, allowed us to unravel the genetic structure related to spatial and climatic landscapes and to visualize these patterns in landscape space. These novel climatic inferences underscore the importance of our modified sPCA approach in revealing how climatic variables can drive cryptic patterns of genetic structure, making the approach potentially useful in the study of any species distributed over a climatically heterogeneous landscape.

Tree cover at fine and coarse spatial grains interacts with shade tolerance to shape plant species distributions across the Alps

The role of competition for light among plants has long been recognized at local scales, but its potential importance for plant species' distribution at larger spatial scales has largely been ignored. Tree cover acts as a modulator of local abiotic conditions, notably by reducing light availability below the canopy and thus the performance of species that are not adapted to low-light conditions. However, this local effect may propagate to coarser spatial grains. Using 6,935 vegetation plots located across the European Alps, we fit Generalized Linear Models (GLM) for the distribution of 960 herbs and shrubs species to assess the effect of tree cover at both plot and landscape grain sizes (~ 10-m and 1-km, respectively). We ran four models with different combinations of variables (climate, soil and tree cover) for each species at both spatial grains. We used partial regressions to evaluate the independent effects of plot- and landscape-scale tree cover on plant communities. Finally, the effects on species' elevational range limits were assessed by simulating a removal experiment comparing the species' distribution under high and low tree cover. Accounting for tree cover improved model performance, with shade-tolerant species increasing their probability of presence at high tree cover whereas shade-intolerant species showed the opposite pattern. The tree cover effect occurred consistently at both plot and landscape spatial grains, albeit strongest at the former. Importantly, tree cover at the two grain sizes had partially independent effects on plot-scale plant communities, suggesting that the effects may be transmitted to coarser grains through meta-community dynamics. At high tree cover, shade-intolerant species exhibited elevational range contractions, especially at their upper limit, whereas shade-tolerant species showed elevational range expansions at both limits. Our findings suggest that the range shifts for herb and shrub species may be modulated by tree cover dynamics.

Excess winter deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases are associated with both mild winter temperature and socio-economic inequalities in the U.S.

Mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) exhibits seasonal variation. For example, 30% more deaths occurred in winter compared to summer in a multicountry study [1]. The effect of cold temperature on several CVD risk factors and on seasonal influenza infection may partially underlie this seasonal variation [2] and [3]. However an unexplained paradox has been observed: seasonality in CVD mortality is larger in temperate mid-latitude countries (e.g. Portugal) than in colder northern countries (e.g. Scandinavian countries) [1]. This paradox has also been previously observed in Europe for overall mortality, and it may relate to uneven proportions between countries of people who are unable to adequately protect themselves against cold due to low socio-economic status (SES), e.g. inadequate clothing, housing insulation and heating systems [4] and [5]. We hypothesized that the seasonal variability in CVD mortality is larger in low socio-economic U.S. states experiencing mild winters compared to high socio-economic states experiencing cold winters.