Transient detectable viremia and the risk of viral rebound in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Temporary increases in plasma HIV RNA ('blips') are common in HIV patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Blips above 500 copies/mL have been associated with subsequent viral rebound. It is not clear if this relationship still holds when measurements are made using newer more sensitive assays. METHODS: We selected antiretroviral-naive patients that then recorded one or more episodes of viral suppression on cART with HIV RNA measurements made using more sensitive assays (lower limit of detection below 50 copies/ml). We estimated the association in these episodes between blip magnitude and the time to viral rebound. RESULTS: Four thousand ninety-four patients recorded a first episode of viral suppression on cART using more sensitive assays; 1672 patients recorded at least one subsequent suppression episode. Most suppression episodes (87 %) were recorded with TaqMan version 1 or 2 assays. Of the 2035 blips recorded, 84 %, 12 % and 4 % were of low (50-199 copies/mL), medium (200-499 copies/mL) and high (500-999 copies/mL) magnitude respectively. The risk of viral rebound increased as blip magnitude increased with hazard ratios of 1.20 (95 % CI 0.89-1.61), 1.42 (95 % CI 0.96-2.19) and 1.93 (95 % CI 1.24-3.01) for low, medium and high magnitude blips respectively; an increase of hazard ratio 1.09 (95 % CI 1.03 to 1.15) per 100 copies/mL of HIV RNA. CONCLUSIONS: With the more sensitive assays now commonly used for monitoring patients, blips above 200 copies/mL are increasingly likely to lead to viral rebound and should prompt a discussion about adherence.

Assessing the Paradox Between Transmitted and Acquired HIV Type 1 Drug Resistance Mutations in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study From 1998 to 2012.

BACKGROUND: Transmitted human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) drug resistance (TDR) mutations are transmitted from nonresponding patients (defined as patients with no initial response to treatment and those with an initial response for whom treatment later failed) or from patients who are naive to treatment. Although the prevalence of drug resistance in patients who are not responding to treatment has declined in developed countries, the prevalence of TDR mutations has not. Mechanisms causing this paradox are poorly explored. METHODS: We included recently infected, treatment-naive patients with genotypic resistance tests performed ≤1 year after infection and before 2013. Potential risk factors for TDR mutations were analyzed using logistic regression. The association between the prevalence of TDR mutations and population viral load (PVL) among treated patients during 1997-2011 was estimated with Poisson regression for all TDR mutations and individually for the most frequent resistance mutations against each drug class (ie, M184V/L90M/K103N). RESULTS: We included 2421 recently infected, treatment-naive patients and 5399 patients with no response to treatment. The prevalence of TDR mutations fluctuated considerably over time. Two opposing developments could explain these fluctuations: generally continuous increases in the prevalence of TDR mutations (odds ratio, 1.13; P = .010), punctuated by sharp decreases in the prevalence when new drug classes were introduced. Overall, the prevalence of TDR mutations increased with decreasing PVL (rate ratio [RR], 0.91 per 1000 decrease in PVL; P = .033). Additionally, we observed that the transmitted high-fitness-cost mutation M184V was positively associated with the PVL of nonresponding patients carrying M184V (RR, 1.50 per 100 increase in PVL; P < .001). Such association was absent for K103N (RR, 1.00 per 100 increase in PVL; P = .99) and negative for L90M (RR, 0.75 per 100 increase in PVL; P = .022). CONCLUSIONS: Transmission of antiretroviral drug resistance is temporarily reduced by the introduction of new drug classes and driven by nonresponding and treatment-naive patients. These findings suggest a continuous need for new drugs, early detection/treatment of HIV-1 infection.

Self-reported nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy as a predictor of viral failure and mortality

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on virologic failure and mortality in naive individuals starting ART. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. METHODS: Eligible individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, started ART between 2003 and 2012, and provided adherence data on at least one biannual clinical visit. Adherence was defined as missed doses (none, one, two, or more than two) and percentage adherence (>95, 90-95, and <90) in the previous 4 weeks. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to estimate the effect of nonadherence on viral failure (HIV-1 viral load >500 copies/ml) and mortality. RESULTS: Of 3150 individuals followed for a median 4.7 years, 480 (15.2%) experienced viral failure and 104 (3.3%) died, 1155 (36.6%) reported missing one dose, 414 (13.1%) two doses and, 333 (10.6%) more than two doses of ART. The risk of viral failure increased with each missed dose (one dose: hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.67; two doses: 2.15, 1.31-3.53; more than two doses: 5.21, 2.96-9.18). The risk of death increased with more than two missed doses (HR 4.87, 2.21-10.73). Missing one to two doses of ART increased the risk of viral failure in those starting once-daily (HR 1.67, 1.11-2.50) compared with those starting twice-daily regimens (HR 0.99, 0.64-1.54, interaction P = 0.09). Consistent results were found for percentage adherence. CONCLUSION: Self-report of two or more missed doses of ART is associated with an increased risk of both viral failure and death. A simple adherence question helps identify patients at risk for negative clinical outcomes and offers opportunities for intervention.

Decoupled evolution of floral traits and climatic preferences in a clade of Neotropical Gesneriaceae.

BACKGROUND: Major factors influencing the phenotypic diversity of a lineage can be recognized by characterizing the extent and mode of trait evolution between related species. Here, we compared the evolutionary dynamics of traits associated with floral morphology and climatic preferences in a clade composed of the genera Codonanthopsis, Codonanthe and Nematanthus (Gesneriaceae). To test the mode and specific components that lead to phenotypic diversity in this group, we performed a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of combined nuclear and plastid DNA sequences and modeled the evolution of quantitative traits related to flower shape and size and to climatic preferences. We propose an alternative approach to display graphically the complex dynamics of trait evolution along a phylogenetic tree using a wide range of evolutionary scenarios. RESULTS: Our results demonstrated heterogeneous trait evolution. Floral shapes displaced into separate regimes selected by the different pollinator types (hummingbirds versus insects), while floral size underwent a clade-specific evolution. Rates of evolution were higher for the clade that is hummingbird pollinated and experienced flower resupination, compared with species pollinated by bees, suggesting a relevant role of plant-pollinator interactions in lowland rainforest. The evolution of temperature preferences is best explained by a model with distinct selective regimes between the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and the other biomes, whereas differentiation along the precipitation axis was characterized by higher rates, compared with temperature, and no regime or clade-specific patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows different selective regimes and clade-specific patterns in the evolution of morphological and climatic components during the diversification of Neotropical species. Our new graphical visualization tool allows the representation of trait trajectories under parameter-rich models, thus contributing to a better understanding of complex evolutionary dynamics.

Coev-web: a web platform designed to simulate and evaluate coevolving positions along a phylogenetic tree.

BACKGROUND: Available methods to simulate nucleotide or amino acid data typically use Markov models to simulate each position independently. These approaches are not appropriate to assess the performance of combinatorial and probabilistic methods that look for coevolving positions in nucleotide or amino acid sequences. RESULTS: We have developed a web-based platform that gives a user-friendly access to two phylogenetic-based methods implementing the Coev model: the evaluation of coevolving scores and the simulation of coevolving positions. We have also extended the capabilities of the Coev model to allow for the generalization of the alphabet used in the Markov model, which can now analyse both nucleotide and amino acid data sets. The simulation of coevolving positions is novel and builds upon the developments of the Coev model. It allows user to simulate pairs of dependent nucleotide or amino acid positions. CONCLUSIONS: The main focus of our paper is the new simulation method we present for coevolving positions. The implementation of this method is embedded within the web platform Coev-web that is freely accessible at http://coev.vital-it.ch/, and was tested in most modern web browsers.

MYC-IG rearrangements are negative predictors of survival in DLBCL patients treated with immunochemotherapy: a GELA/LYSA study.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) with MYC rearrangement (MYC-R) carries an unfavorable outcome. We explored the prognostic value of the MYC translocation partner gene in a series of MYC-R de novo DLBCL patients enrolled in first-line prospective clinical trials (Groupe d'Etudes des Lymphomes de l'Adulte/Lymphoma Study Association) and treated with rituximab-anthracycline-based chemotherapy. A total of 774 DLBCL cases characterized for cell of origin by the Hans classifier were analyzed using fluorescence in situ hybridization with BCL2, BCL6, MYC, immunoglobulin (IG)K, and IGL break-apart and IGH/MYC, IGK/MYC, and IGL/MYC fusion probes. MYC-R was observed in 51/574 (8.9%) evaluable DLBCL cases. MYC-R cases were predominantly of the germinal center B-cell-like subtype 37/51 (74%) with no distinctive morphologic and phenotypic features. Nineteen cases were MYC single-hit and 32 cases were MYC double-hit (MYC plus BCL2 and/or BCL6) DLBCL. MYC translocation partner was an IG gene in 24 cases (MYC-IG) and a non-IG gene (MYC-non-IG) in 26 of 50 evaluable cases. Noteworthy, MYC-IG patients had shorter overall survival (OS) (P = .0002) compared with MYC-negative patients, whereas no survival difference was observed between MYC-non-IG and MYC-negative patients. In multivariate analyses, MYC-IG predicted poor progression-free survival (P = .0051) and OS (P = .0006) independently from the International Prognostic Index and the Hans classifier. In conclusion, we show in this prospective randomized trial that the adverse prognostic impact of MYC-R is correlated to the MYC-IG translocation partner gene in DLBCL patients treated with immunochemotherapy. These results may have an important impact on the clinical management of DLBCL patients with MYC-R who should be routinely characterized according to MYC partner gene. These trials are individually registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00144807, #NCT01087424, #NCT00169143, #NCT00144755, #NCT00140660, #NCT00140595, and #NCT00135499.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Impact of a cis-associated gene expression SNP on chromosome 20q11.22 on bipolar disorder susceptibility, hippocampal structure and cognitive performance.

BackgroundBipolar disorder is a highly heritable polygenic disorder. Recent enrichment analyses suggest that there may be true risk variants for bipolar disorder in the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) in the brain.AimsWe sought to assess the impact of eQTL variants on bipolar disorder risk by combining data from both bipolar disorder genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and brain eQTL.MethodTo detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that influence expression levels of genes associated with bipolar disorder, we jointly analysed data from a bipolar disorder GWAS (7481 cases and 9250 controls) and a genome-wide brain (cortical) eQTL (193 healthy controls) using a Bayesian statistical method, with independent follow-up replications. The identified risk SNP was then further tested for association with hippocampal volume (n = 5775) and cognitive performance (n = 342) among healthy individuals.ResultsIntegrative analysis revealed a significant association between a brain eQTL rs6088662 on chromosome 20q11.22 and bipolar disorder (log Bayes factor = 5.48; bipolar disorder P = 5.85×10(-5)). Follow-up studies across multiple independent samples confirmed the association of the risk SNP (rs6088662) with gene expression and bipolar disorder susceptibility (P = 3.54×10(-8)). Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs6088662 is also associated with hippocampal volume and cognitive performance in healthy individuals.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that 20q11.22 is likely a risk region for bipolar disorder; they also highlight the informative value of integrating functional annotation of genetic variants for gene expression in advancing our understanding of the biological basis underlying complex disorders, such as bipolar disorder.

Stability of nanoparticle agglomerates under mechanical stress and its effects on their release into the air

L'exposition professionnelle aux nanomatériaux manufacturés dans l'air présente des risques potentiels pour la santé des travailleurs dans les secteurs de la nanotechnologie. Il est important de comprendre les scénarios de libération des aérosols de nanoparticules dans les processus et les activités associées à l'exposition humaine. Les mécanismes de libération, y compris les taux de libération et les propriétés physico-chimiques des nanoparticules, déterminent leurs comportements de transport ainsi que les effets biologiques néfastes. La distribution de taille des particules d'aérosols est l'un des paramètres les plus importants dans ces processus. La stabilité mécanique d'agglomérats de nanoparticules affecte leurs distributions de tailles. Les potentiels de désagglomération de ces agglomérats déterminent les possibilités de leur déformation sous énergies externes. Cela rend les changements possibles dans leur distribution de taille et de la concentration en nombre qui vont finalement modifier leurs risques d'exposition. Les conditions environnementales, telles que l'humidité relative, peuvent influencer les processus de désagglomération par l'adhérence de condensation capillaire de l'humidité. L'objectif général de cette thèse était d'évaluer les scénarios de libération des nanomatériaux manufacturés des processus et activités sur le lieu de travail. Les sous-objectifs étaient les suivants: 1. Etudier les potentiels de désagglomération des nanoparticules dans des conditions environnementales variées. 2. Etudier la libération des nano-objets à partir de nanocomposites polymères; 3. Evaluer la libération de nanoparticules sur le lieu de travail dans des situations concrètes. Nous avons comparé différents systèmes de laboratoire qui présentaient différents niveau d'énergie dans l'aérosolisation des poudres. Des nanopoudres de TiO2 avec des hydrophilicités de surface distinctes ont été testées. Un spectromètre à mobilité électrique (SMPS), un spectromètre à mobilité aérodynamique (APS) et un spectromètre optique (OPC) ont été utilisés pour mesurer la concentration de particules et la distribution de taille des particules. La microscopie électronique à transmission (TEM) a été utilisée pour l'analyse morphologique d'échantillons de particules dans l'air. Les propriétés des aérosols (distribution de taille et concentration en nombre) étaient différentes suivant la méthode employée. Les vitesses des flux d'air d'aérosolisation ont été utilisées pour estimer le niveau d'énergie dans ces systèmes, et il a été montré que les tailles modales des particules étaient inversement proportionnelles à la vitesse appliquée. En général, les particules hydrophiles ont des diamètres plus grands et des nombres inférieurs à ceux des particules hydrophobes. Toutefois, cela dépend aussi des méthodes utilisées. La vitesse de l'air peut donc être un paramètre efficace pour le classement de l'énergie des procédés pour des systèmes d'aérosolisation similaires. Nous avons développé un système laboratoire pour tester les potentiels de désagglomération des nanoparticules dans l'air en utilisant des orifices critiques et un humidificateur. Sa performance a été comparée à un système similaire dans un institut partenaire. Une variété de nanopoudres différentes a été testée. Le niveau d'énergie appliquée et l'humidité ont été modifiés. Le SMPS et l'OPC ont été utilisés pour mesurer la concentration de particules et la distribution de la taille. Un TEM a été utilisé pour l'analyse morphologique d'échantillons de particules dans l'air. Le diamètre moyen des particules a diminué et la concentration en nombre s'est accrue lorsque des énergies externes ont été appliquées. Le nombre de particules inférieures à 100 nm a été augmenté, et celui au-dessus de 350 nm réduits. Les conditions humides ont faits exactement le contraire, en particulier pour les petites particules. En outre, ils ont réduits les effets de la différence de pression due à l'orifice. Les résultats suggèrent que la désagglomération d'agglomérats de nanoparticules dans l'air est possible dans la gamme d'énergie appliquée. Cependant, l'atmosphère humide peut favoriser leur agglomération et améliorer leurs stabilités en réduisant la libération de nanoparticules dans l'environnement. Nous proposons d'utiliser notre système pour le test de routine des potentiels de désagglomération des nanomatériaux manufacturés et de les classer. Un tel classement faciliterait la priorisation de l'exposition et du risque encouru en fonction du niveau d'ENM. Un système de perçage automatique et un système de sciage manuel ont été développés pour étudier la libération de nanoparticules à partir de différents types de nanocomposites. La vitesse de perçage et taille de la mèche ont été modifiées dans les expériences. La distribution de taille des particules et leur concentration en nombre ont été mesurées par un SMPS et un miniature diffusion size classifier (DISCmini). Les distributions de nanoparticules dans les composites et les particules libérées ont été analysés par un TEM et un microscope électronique à balayage (SEM). Les tests de perçage ont libérés un plus grand nombre de particules que le sciage. Des vitesses de perçage plus rapide et les mèches plus grandes ont augmentés la génération de particules. Les charges de nanoparticules manufacturées dans les composites ne modifient pas leurs comportements de libération dans les expériences de perçage. Toutefois, le sciage différencie les niveaux de libération entre les composites et les échantillons blancs. De plus, les vapeurs de polymères ont été générées par la chaleur de sciage. La plupart des particules libérées sont des polymères contenant des nanoparticules ou sur leurs surface. Les résultats ont souligné l'importance du type de processus et paramètres pour déterminer la libération de nanoparticules de composites. Les émissions secondaires telles que les fumées polymères appellent à la nécessité d'évaluations de l'exposition et de risque pour de tels scénarios. Une revue systématique de la littérature sur le sujet de libérations de nanoparticules dans l'air dans les secteurs industriels et laboratoires de recherche a été effectuée. Des stratégies de recherche des informations pertinentes et de stockage ont été développées. Les mécanismes de libération, tels que la taille de particules d'aérosol et de leur concentration en nombre, ont été comparés pour différentes activités. La disponibilité de l'information contextuelle qui est pertinente pour l'estimation de l'exposition humaine a été évaluée. Il a été constaté que les données relatives à l'exposition ne sont pas toujours disponibles dans la littérature actuelle. Les propriétés des aérosols libérés semblent dépendre de la nature des activités. Des procédés à haute énergie ont tendance à générer des plus hauts niveaux de concentrations de particules dans les gammes de plus petite taille. Les résultats peuvent être utiles pour déterminer la priorité des procédés industriels pour l'évaluation les risques associés dans une approche à plusieurs niveaux. Pour l'évaluation de l'exposition, la disponibilité de l'information peut être améliorée par le développement d'une meilleure méthode de communication des données.

Mammalian Target of Rapamycin Complex 2 Controls CD8 T Cell Memory Differentiation in a Foxo1-Dependent Manner.

Upon infection, antigen-specific naive CD8 T cells are activated and differentiate into short-lived effector cells (SLECs) and memory precursor cells (MPECs). The underlying signaling pathways remain largely unresolved. We show that Rictor, the core component of mammalian target of rapamycin complex 2 (mTORC2), regulates SLEC and MPEC commitment. Rictor deficiency favors memory formation and increases IL-2 secretion capacity without dampening effector functions. Moreover, mTORC2-deficient memory T cells mount more potent recall responses. Enhanced memory formation in the absence of mTORC2 was associated with Eomes and Tcf-1 upregulation, repression of T-bet, enhanced mitochondrial spare respiratory capacity, and fatty acid oxidation. This transcriptional and metabolic reprogramming is mainly driven by nuclear stabilization of Foxo1. Silencing of Foxo1 reversed the increased MPEC differentiation and IL-2 production and led to an impaired recall response of Rictor KO memory T cells. Therefore, mTORC2 is a critical regulator of CD8 T cell differentiation and may be an important target for immunotherapy interventions.

Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

Safety of Prasugrel Loading Doses in Patients Pre-Loaded With Clopidogrel in the Setting of Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Results of a Nonrandomized Observational Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the safety of the concurrent administration of a clopidogrel and prasugrel loading dose in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention. BACKGROUND: Prasugrel is one of the preferred P2Y12 platelet receptor antagonists for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients. The use of prasugrel was evaluated clinically in clopidogrel-naive patients. METHODS: Between September 2009 and October 2012, a total of 2,023 STEMI patients were enrolled in the COMFORTABLE (Comparison of Biomatrix Versus Gazelle in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction [STEMI]) and the SPUM-ACS (Inflammation and Acute Coronary Syndromes) studies. Patients receiving a prasugrel loading dose were divided into 2 groups: 1) clopidogrel and a subsequent prasugrel loading dose; and 2) a prasugrel loading dose. The primary safety endpoint was Bleeding Academic Research Consortium types 3 to 5 bleeding in hospital at 30 days. RESULTS: Of 2,023 patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention, 427 (21.1%) received clopidogrel and a subsequent prasugrel loading dose, 447 (22.1%) received a prasugrel loading dose alone, and the remaining received clopidogrel only. At 30 days, the primary safety endpoint was observed in 1.9% of those receiving clopidogrel and a subsequent prasugrel loading dose and 3.4% of those receiving a prasugrel loading dose alone (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25 to 1.30, p = 0.18). The HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly) bleeding score tended to be higher in prasugrel-treated patients (p = 0.076). The primary safety endpoint results, however, remained unchanged after adjustment for these differences (clopidogrel and a subsequent prasugrel loading dose vs. prasugrel only; HR: 0.54 [95% CI: 0.23 to 1.27], p = 0.16). No differences in the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, or stroke were observed at 30 days (adjusted HR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.27 to 1.62, p = 0.36). CONCLUSIONS: This observational, nonrandomized study of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients suggests that the administration of a loading dose of prasugrel in patients pre-treated with a loading dose of clopidogrel is not associated with an excess of major bleeding events. (Comparison of Biomatrix Versus Gazelle in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction [STEMI] [COMFORTABLE]; NCT00962416; and Inflammation and Acute Coronary Syndromes [SPUM-ACS]; NCT01000701).

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.