Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases

Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

Novel method to estimate the phenotypic variation explained by genome-wide association studies reveals large fraction of the missing heritability.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are conducted with the promise to discover novel genetic variants associated with diverse traits. For most traits, associated markers individually explain just a modest fraction of the phenotypic variation, but their number can well be in the hundreds. We developed a maximum likelihood method that allows us to infer the distribution of associated variants even when many of them were missed by chance. Compared to previous approaches, the novelty of our method is that it (a) does not require having an independent (unbiased) estimate of the effect sizes; (b) makes use of the complete distribution of P-values while allowing for the false discovery rate; (c) takes into account allelic heterogeneity and the SNP pruning strategy. We applied our method to the latest GWAS meta-analysis results of the GIANT consortium. It revealed that while the explained variance of genome-wide (GW) significant SNPs is around 1% for waist-hip ratio (WHR), the observed P-values provide evidence for the existence of variants explaining 10% (CI=[8.5-11.5%]) of the phenotypic variance in total. Similarly, the total explained variance likely to exist for height is estimated to be 29% (CI=[28-30%]), three times higher than what the observed GW significant SNPs give rise to. This methodology also enables us to predict the benefit of future GWA studies that aim to reveal more associated genetic markers via increased sample size.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Europe: the Case of Pest Control by Vertebrates. BioScience.

Global environmental changes threaten ecosystems and cause significant alterations to the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. We provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on European diversity of vertebrates and their associated pest control services. We modeled the distributions of the species that provide this service using ensembles of forecasts from bioclimatic envelope models and then used their results to generate maps of potential species richness among vertebrate providers of pest control services. We assessed how potential richness of pest control providers would change according to different climate and greenhouse emissions scenarios. We found that potential richness of pest control providers was likely to face substantial reductions, especially in southern European countries that had economies highly dependent on agricultural yields. In much of central and northern Europe, where countries had their economies less dependent on agriculture, climate change was likely to benefit pest control providers

Natural gene-expression variation in Down syndrome modulates the outcome of gene-dosage imbalance.

Down syndrome (DS) is characterized by extensive phenotypic variability, with most traits occurring in only a fraction of affected individuals. Substantial gene-expression variation is present among unaffected individuals, and this variation has a strong genetic component. Since DS is caused by genomic-dosage imbalance, we hypothesize that gene-expression variation of human chromosome 21 (HSA21) genes in individuals with DS has an impact on the phenotypic variability among affected individuals. We studied gene-expression variation in 14 lymphoblastoid and 17 fibroblast cell lines from individuals with DS and an equal number of controls. Gene expression was assayed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction on 100 and 106 HSA21 genes and 23 and 26 non-HSA21 genes in lymphoblastoid and fibroblast cell lines, respectively. Surprisingly, only 39% and 62% of HSA21 genes in lymphoblastoid and fibroblast cells, respectively, showed a statistically significant difference between DS and normal samples, although the average up-regulation of HSA21 genes was close to the expected 1.5-fold in both cell types. Gene-expression variation in DS and normal samples was evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. According to the degree of overlap in expression levels, we classified all genes into 3 groups: (A) nonoverlapping, (B) partially overlapping, and (C) extensively overlapping expression distributions between normal and DS samples. We hypothesize that, in each cell type, group A genes are the most dosage sensitive and are most likely involved in the constant DS traits, group B genes might be involved in variable DS traits, and group C genes are not dosage sensitive and are least likely to participate in DS pathological phenotypes. This study provides the first extensive data set on HSA21 gene-expression variation in DS and underscores its role in modulating the outcome of gene-dosage imbalance.

Length variation in HIV-1 gp120 as the product of DNA misalignment mechanism

Background: To determine whether misalignment structures such as duplications, repeats, and palindromes are associated to insertions/deletions (indels) in gp120, indicating that indels are indeed frameshift mutations generated by DNA misalignment mechanism. Methods: Cloning and sequencing of a fragment of HIV-1 gp120 spanning C2-C4 derived from plasma RNA in 12 patients with early chronic disease and naïve to antiretroviral therapy. Results: Indels in V4 involved always insertion and deletion of duplicated nucleotide segments, and AAT repeats, and were associated to the presence of palindromic sequences. No duplications were detected in V3 and C3. Palindromic sequences occurred with similar frequencies in V3, C3 and V4; the frequency of palindromes in individual genes was found to be significantly higher in structural (gp120, p ≤ 3.00E-7) and significantly lower in regulatory (Tat, p ≤ 9.00E-7) genes, as compared to the average frequency calculated over the full genome. Discussion: Indels in V4 are associated to misalignment structures (i.e. duplications repeat and palindromes) indicating DNA misalignment as the mechanism underlying length variation in V4. The finding that indels in V4 are caused by DNA misalignment has some very important implications: 1) indels in V4 are likely to occur in proviral DNA (and not in RNA), after integration of HIV into the host genome; 2) they are likely to occur as progressive modifications of the early founder virus during chronic infection, as more and more cells get infected; 3) frameshift mutations involving any number of base pairs are likely to occur evenly across gp120; however, only those mutants carrying a functional gp120 (indels as multiples of three base pairs) will be able to perpetuate the virus cycle and to keep spreading through the population.

The phylogeography of an alpine leaf beetle: divergence within Oreina elongata spans several ice ages.

The genetic landscape of the European flora and fauna was shaped by the ebb and flow of populations with the shifting ice during Quaternary climate cycles. While this has been well demonstrated for lowland species, less is known about high altitude taxa. Here we analyze the phylogeography of the leaf beetle Oreina elongata from 20 populations across the Alps and Apennines. Three mitochondrial and one nuclear region were sequenced in 64 individuals. Within an mtDNA phylogeny, three of seven subspecies are monophyletic. The species is chemically defended and aposematic, with green and blue forms showing geographic variation and unexpected within-population polymorphism. These warning colors show pronounced east-west geographical structure in distribution, but the phylogeography suggests repeated origin and loss. Basal clades come from the central Alps. Ancestors of other clades probably survived across northern Italy and the northern Adriatic, before separation of eastern, southern and western populations and rapid spread through the western Alps. After reviewing calibrated gene-specific substitution rates in the literature, we use partitioned Bayesian coalescent analysis to date our phylogeography. The major clades diverged long before the last glacial maximum, suggesting that O. elongata persisted many glacial cycles within or at the edges of the Alps and Apennines. When analyzing additional barcoding pairwise distances, we find strong evidence to consider O. elongata as a species complex rather than a single species.

Multiple introductions boosted genetic diversity in the invasive range of black cherry (Prunus serotina; Rosaceae).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Black cherry (Prunus serotina) is a North American tree that is rapidly invading European forests. This species was introduced first as an ornamental plant, then it was massively planted by foresters in many countries, but its origins and the process of invasion remain poorly documented. Based on a genetic survey of both native and invasive ranges, the invasion history of black cherry was investigated by identifying putative source populations and then assessing the importance of multiple introductions on the maintenance of gene diversity. METHODS: Genetic variability and structure of 23 populations from the invasive range and 22 populations from the native range were analysed using eight nuclear microsatellite loci and five chloroplast DNA regions. KEY RESULTS: Chloroplast DNA diversity suggests there were multiple introductions from a single geographic region (the north-eastern United States). A low reduction of genetic diversity was observed in the invasive range for both nuclear and plastid genomes. High propagule pressure including both the size and number of introductions shaped the genetic structure in Europe and boosted genetic diversity. Populations from Denmark, The Netherlands, Belgium and Germany showed high genetic diversity and low differentiation among populations, supporting the hypothesis that numerous introduction events, including multiple individuals and exchanges between sites, have taken place during two centuries of plantation. CONCLUSIONS: This study postulates that the invasive black cherry has originated from east of the Appalachian Mountains (mainly the Allegheny plateau) and its invasiveness in north-western Europe is mainly due to multiple introductions containing high numbers of individuals.

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

Owl melanin-based plumage redness is more frequent near than away from the equator: implications on the effect of climate change on biodiversity

Climate change acts as a major new selective agent on many organisms, particularly at high latitudes where climate change is more pronounced than at lower latitudes. Studies are required to predict which species are at a high risk of extinction and whether certain phenotypes may be more affected by climate change than others. The identification of susceptible phenotypes is important for evaluating the potential negative effect of climate change on biodiversity at the inter- and intraspecific levels. Melanin-based coloration is an interesting and easily accessible candidate trait because, within certain species, reddish pheomelanin-based coloration is associated with adaptations to warm climates. However, it is unclear whether the same holds among species. We tested one prediction of this hypothesis in four owl genera (wood, scops, screech, and pygmy owls), namely that darker reddish species are more prevalent near the equator than polewards. Our comparative analysis is consistent with this prediction for the northern hemisphere, suggesting that pale reddish species may be adapted to cold climates and dark reddish species to warmer climates. Thus, climate change may have a larger negative impact on pale pheomelanic owls and favour dark pheomelanic species.

Copy number variation modifies expression time courses.

A preliminary understanding into the phenotypic effect of DNA segment copy number variation (CNV) is emerging. These rearrangements were demonstrated to influence, in a somewhat dose-dependent manner, the expression of genes that map within them. They were also shown to modify the expression of genes located on their flanks and sometimes those at a great distance from their boundary. Here we demonstrate, by monitoring these effects at multiple life stages, that these controls over expression are effective throughout mouse development. Similarly, we observe that the more specific spatial expression patterns of CNV genes are maintained through life. However, we find that some brain-expressed genes mapping within CNVs appear to be under compensatory loops only at specific time points, indicating that the effect of CNVs on these genes is modulated during development. Notably, we also observe that CNV genes are significantly enriched within transcripts that show variable time courses of expression between strains. Thus, modifying the copy number of a gene may potentially alter not only its expression level, but also the timing of its expression.

Plastid DNA variation in Prunus serotina var. serotina (Rosaceae), a North American tree invading Europe

Black cherry (Prunus serotina) is a tree from North America, where it is often used for economical purposes, whereas it is widespread and invasive in Europe. Plastid DNA variation was Wrst investigated in both its native and invasive ranges using microsatellite loci and sequences of three intergenic spacers (trnT-trnL, trnD-trnT and trnS-trnG). This analysis was focused on P. serotina var. serotina, with the inclusion of samples of closely related taxa. Length variation at a microsatellite locus (ccmp5) and a few sequence polymorphisms were identi- Wed among P. serotina samples. Four new primer pairs were then designed to speciWcally amplify variable regions and a combination of Wve markers was Wnally proposed for phylogeographic studies in P. serotina. These loci allow identiWcation of six chlorotypes in P. serotina var. serotina, which may be particularly useful to depict the maternal origins of European invasive populations