Validation of and comparison between a semidistributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (PREVAH) and a spatially distributed snow-evolution model (SnowModel) for snow cover prediction in mountain ecosystems

Snow cover is an important control in mountain environments and a shift of the snow-free period triggered by climate warming can strongly impact ecosystem dynamics. Changing snow patterns can have severe effects on alpine plant distribution and diversity. It thus becomes urgent to provide spatially explicit assessments of snow cover changes that can be incorporated into correlative or empirical species distribution models (SDMs). Here, we provide for the first time a with a lower overestimation comparison of two physically based snow distribution models (PREVAH and SnowModel) to produce snow cover maps (SCMs) at a fine spatial resolution in a mountain landscape in Austria. SCMs have been evaluated with SPOT-HRVIR images and predictions of snow water equivalent from the two models with ground measurements. Finally, SCMs of the two models have been compared under a climate warming scenario for the end of the century. The predictive performances of PREVAH and SnowModel were similar when validated with the SPOT images. However, the tendency to overestimate snow cover was slightly lower with SnowModel during the accumulation period, whereas it was lower with PREVAH during the melting period. The rate of true positives during the melting period was two times higher on average with SnowModel with a lower overestimation of snow water equivalent. Our results allow for recommending the use of SnowModel in SDMs because it better captures persisting snow patches at the end of the snow season, which is important when modelling the response of species to long-lasting snow cover and evaluating whether they might survive under climate change.

Prediction of Complications After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: Validation of a Postoperative Complication Score.

OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic surgery remains associated with important morbidity. Efforts are most commonly concentrated on decreasing postoperative morbidity, but early detection of patients at risk could be another valuable strategy. A simple prognostic score has recently been published. This study aimed to validate this score and discuss possible clinical implications. METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, 245 patients underwent a pancreaticoduodenectomy. Complications were graded according to the Dindo-Clavien Classification. The Braga score is based on American Society of Anesthesiologists score, pancreatic texture, Wirsung duct diameter, and blood loss. An overall risk score (0-15) can be calculated for each patient. Score discriminant power was calculated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Major complications occurred in 31% of patients compared with 17% in Braga's data. Pancreatic texture and blood loss were independently statistically significant for increased morbidity. Areas under the curve were 0.95 and 0.99 for 4-risk categories and for individual scores, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The Braga score discriminates well between minor and major complications. Our validation suggests that it can be used as a prognostic tool for major complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy. The clinical implications, that is, whether postoperative treatment strategies should be adapted according to the patient's individual risk, remain to be elucidated.

Etude de la composition initiale et du vieillissement des traces digitales: vers le développement d'une méthode de datation?

«Quel est l'âge de cette trace digitale?» Cette question est relativement souvent soulevée au tribunal ou lors d'investigations, lorsque la personne suspectée admet avoir laissé ses empreintes digitales sur une scène de crime mais prétend l'avoir fait à un autre moment que celui du crime et pour une raison innocente. Toutefois, aucune réponse ne peut actuellement être donnée à cette question, puisqu'aucune méthodologie n'est pour l'heure validée et acceptée par l'ensemble de la communauté forensique. Néanmoins, l'inventaire de cas américains conduit dans cette recherche a montré que les experts fournissent tout de même des témoignages au tribunal concernant l'âge de traces digitales, même si ceux-­‐ci sont majoritairement basés sur des paramètres subjectifs et mal documentés. Il a été relativement aisé d'accéder à des cas américains détaillés, ce qui explique le choix de l'exemple. Toutefois, la problématique de la datation des traces digitales est rencontrée dans le monde entier, et le manque de consensus actuel dans les réponses données souligne la nécessité d'effectuer des études sur le sujet. Le but de la présente recherche est donc d'évaluer la possibilité de développer une méthode de datation objective des traces digitales. Comme les questions entourant la mise au point d'une telle procédure ne sont pas nouvelles, différentes tentatives ont déjà été décrites dans la littérature. Cette recherche les a étudiées de manière critique, et souligne que la plupart des méthodologies reportées souffrent de limitations prévenant leur utilisation pratique. Néanmoins, certaines approches basées sur l'évolution dans le temps de composés intrinsèques aux résidus papillaires se sont montrées prometteuses. Ainsi, un recensement détaillé de la littérature a été conduit afin d'identifier les composés présents dans les traces digitales et les techniques analytiques capables de les détecter. Le choix a été fait de se concentrer sur les composés sébacés détectés par chromatographie gazeuse couplée à la spectrométrie de masse (GC/MS) ou par spectroscopie infrarouge à transformée de Fourier. Des analyses GC/MS ont été menées afin de caractériser la variabilité initiale de lipides cibles au sein des traces digitales d'un même donneur (intra-­‐variabilité) et entre les traces digitales de donneurs différents (inter-­‐variabilité). Ainsi, plusieurs molécules ont été identifiées et quantifiées pour la première fois dans les résidus papillaires. De plus, il a été déterminé que l'intra-­‐variabilité des résidus était significativement plus basse que l'inter-­‐variabilité, mais que ces deux types de variabilité pouvaient être réduits en utilisant différents pré-­‐ traitements statistiques s'inspirant du domaine du profilage de produits stupéfiants. Il a également été possible de proposer un modèle objectif de classification des donneurs permettant de les regrouper dans deux classes principales en se basant sur la composition initiale de leurs traces digitales. Ces classes correspondent à ce qui est actuellement appelé de manière relativement subjective des « bons » ou « mauvais » donneurs. Le potentiel d'un tel modèle est élevé dans le domaine de la recherche en traces digitales, puisqu'il permet de sélectionner des donneurs représentatifs selon les composés d'intérêt. En utilisant la GC/MS et la FTIR, une étude détaillée a été conduite sur les effets de différents facteurs d'influence sur la composition initiale et le vieillissement de molécules lipidiques au sein des traces digitales. Il a ainsi été déterminé que des modèles univariés et multivariés pouvaient être construits pour décrire le vieillissement des composés cibles (transformés en paramètres de vieillissement par pré-­‐traitement), mais que certains facteurs d'influence affectaient ces modèles plus sérieusement que d'autres. En effet, le donneur, le substrat et l'application de techniques de révélation semblent empêcher la construction de modèles reproductibles. Les autres facteurs testés (moment de déposition, pression, température et illumination) influencent également les résidus et leur vieillissement, mais des modèles combinant différentes valeurs de ces facteurs ont tout de même prouvé leur robustesse dans des situations bien définies. De plus, des traces digitales-­‐tests ont été analysées par GC/MS afin d'être datées en utilisant certains des modèles construits. Il s'est avéré que des estimations correctes étaient obtenues pour plus de 60 % des traces-­‐tests datées, et jusqu'à 100% lorsque les conditions de stockage étaient connues. Ces résultats sont intéressants mais il est impératif de conduire des recherches supplémentaires afin d'évaluer les possibilités d'application de ces modèles dans des cas réels. Dans une perspective plus fondamentale, une étude pilote a également été effectuée sur l'utilisation de la spectroscopie infrarouge combinée à l'imagerie chimique (FTIR-­‐CI) afin d'obtenir des informations quant à la composition et au vieillissement des traces digitales. Plus précisément, la capacité de cette technique à mettre en évidence le vieillissement et l'effet de certains facteurs d'influence sur de larges zones de traces digitales a été investiguée. Cette information a ensuite été comparée avec celle obtenue par les spectres FTIR simples. Il en a ainsi résulté que la FTIR-­‐CI était un outil puissant, mais que son utilisation dans l'étude des résidus papillaires à des buts forensiques avait des limites. En effet, dans cette recherche, cette technique n'a pas permis d'obtenir des informations supplémentaires par rapport aux spectres FTIR traditionnels et a également montré des désavantages majeurs, à savoir de longs temps d'analyse et de traitement, particulièrement lorsque de larges zones de traces digitales doivent être couvertes. Finalement, les résultats obtenus dans ce travail ont permis la proposition et discussion d'une approche pragmatique afin d'aborder les questions de datation des traces digitales. Cette approche permet ainsi d'identifier quel type d'information le scientifique serait capable d'apporter aux enquêteurs et/ou au tribunal à l'heure actuelle. De plus, le canevas proposé décrit également les différentes étapes itératives de développement qui devraient être suivies par la recherche afin de parvenir à la validation d'une méthodologie de datation des traces digitales objective, dont les capacités et limites sont connues et documentées. -- "How old is this fingermark?" This question is relatively often raised in trials when suspects admit that they have left their fingermarks on a crime scene but allege that the contact occurred at a time different to that of the crime and for legitimate reasons. However, no answer can be given to this question so far, because no fingermark dating methodology has been validated and accepted by the whole forensic community. Nevertheless, the review of past American cases highlighted that experts actually gave/give testimonies in courts about the age of fingermarks, even if mostly based on subjective and badly documented parameters. It was relatively easy to access fully described American cases, thus explaining the origin of the given examples. However, fingermark dating issues are encountered worldwide, and the lack of consensus among the given answers highlights the necessity to conduct research on the subject. The present work thus aims at studying the possibility to develop an objective fingermark dating method. As the questions surrounding the development of dating procedures are not new, different attempts were already described in the literature. This research proposes a critical review of these attempts and highlights that most of the reported methodologies still suffer from limitations preventing their use in actual practice. Nevertheless, some approaches based on the evolution of intrinsic compounds detected in fingermark residue over time appear to be promising. Thus, an exhaustive review of the literature was conducted in order to identify the compounds available in the fingermark residue and the analytical techniques capable of analysing them. It was chosen to concentrate on sebaceous compounds analysed using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC/MS) or Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). GC/MS analyses were conducted in order to characterize the initial variability of target lipids among fresh fingermarks of the same donor (intra-­‐variability) and between fingermarks of different donors (inter-­‐variability). As a result, many molecules were identified and quantified for the first time in fingermark residue. Furthermore, it was determined that the intra-­‐variability of the fingermark residue was significantly lower than the inter-­‐variability, but that it was possible to reduce both kind of variability using different statistical pre-­‐ treatments inspired from the drug profiling area. It was also possible to propose an objective donor classification model allowing the grouping of donors in two main classes based on their initial lipid composition. These classes correspond to what is relatively subjectively called "good" or "bad" donors. The potential of such a model is high for the fingermark research field, as it allows the selection of representative donors based on compounds of interest. Using GC/MS and FTIR, an in-­‐depth study of the effects of different influence factors on the initial composition and aging of target lipid molecules found in fingermark residue was conducted. It was determined that univariate and multivariate models could be build to describe the aging of target compounds (transformed in aging parameters through pre-­‐ processing techniques), but that some influence factors were affecting these models more than others. In fact, the donor, the substrate and the application of enhancement techniques seemed to hinder the construction of reproducible models. The other tested factors (deposition moment, pressure, temperature and illumination) also affected the residue and their aging, but models combining different values of these factors still proved to be robust. Furthermore, test-­‐fingermarks were analysed with GC/MS in order to be dated using some of the generated models. It turned out that correct estimations were obtained for 60% of the dated test-­‐fingermarks and until 100% when the storage conditions were known. These results are interesting but further research should be conducted to evaluate if these models could be used in uncontrolled casework conditions. In a more fundamental perspective, a pilot study was also conducted on the use of infrared spectroscopy combined with chemical imaging in order to gain information about the fingermark composition and aging. More precisely, its ability to highlight influence factors and aging effects over large areas of fingermarks was investigated. This information was then compared with that given by individual FTIR spectra. It was concluded that while FTIR-­‐ CI is a powerful tool, its use to study natural fingermark residue for forensic purposes has to be carefully considered. In fact, in this study, this technique does not yield more information on residue distribution than traditional FTIR spectra and also suffers from major drawbacks, such as long analysis and processing time, particularly when large fingermark areas need to be covered. Finally, the results obtained in this research allowed the proposition and discussion of a formal and pragmatic framework to approach the fingermark dating questions. It allows identifying which type of information the scientist would be able to bring so far to investigators and/or Justice. Furthermore, this proposed framework also describes the different iterative development steps that the research should follow in order to achieve the validation of an objective fingermark dating methodology, whose capacities and limits are well known and properly documented.

Quality of life after pulmonary embolism, validation of the French version of the PEmb-QoL questionnaire

Background: The PEmb-QoL is a validated 40-item questionnaire to quantify health-related quality of life in patients having experienced pulmonary embolism (PE). It covers six health dimensions: frequency of complaints, activities of daily living limitations, work-related problems, social limitations, intensity of complaints, and emotional complaints. Originally developed in Dutch and English, we sought to prospectively validate the psychometric properties of a French version of the PEmb-QoL. Methods: We performed a forward and backward translation of the English version of the PEmb-QoL into French. French-speaking consecutive adult patients with an acute, objectively confirmed PE admitted to the emergency department of a Swiss university hospital between 08/2009 and 09/2011 were recruited telephonically. We used standard psychometric tests and criteria to evaluate the acceptability, reliability, and validity of the French version of the PEmb-QoL. We also performed an exploratory factor analysis. Results: Overall, 102 patients were enrolled in the study. The French version of the PEmb-QoL showed good reliability (internal consistency, item-total and inter-item correlations), reproducibility (test-retest reliability), and validity (convergent, discriminant) in French-speaking patients with PE. The exploratory factor analysis suggested three underlying dimensions: limitations in daily activity (items 4b-m, 5a-d), symptoms (items 1a-h and 7), and emotional complaints (items 9a-f and j). Conclusion: We successfully validated the French version of the PEmb-QoL questionnaire in patients with PE. Our results show that the PEmb-QoL is a valuable tool for assessing health-related quality of life after PE in French-speaking patients.

Analytical Strategies for Doping Control Purposes: Needs, Challenges, and Perspectives.

The fight against doping in sports has been governed since 1999 by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), an independent institution behind the implementation of the World Anti-Doping Code (Code). The intent of the Code is to protect clean athletes through the harmonization of anti-doping programs at the international level with special attention to detection, deterrence and prevention of doping.1 A new version of the Code came into force on January 1st 2015, introducing, among other improvements, longer periods of sanctioning for athletes (up to four years) and measures to strengthen the role of anti-doping investigations and intelligence. To ensure optimal harmonization, five International Standards covering different technical aspects of the Code are also currently in force: the List of Prohibited Substances and Methods (List), Testing and Investigations, Laboratories, Therapeutic Use Exemptions (TUE) and Protection of Privacy and Personal Information. Adherence to these standards is mandatory for all anti-doping stakeholders to be compliant with the Code. Among these documents, the eighth version of International Standard for Laboratories (ISL), which also came into effect on January 1st 2015, includes regulations for WADA and ISO/IEC 17025 accreditations and their application for urine and blood sample analysis by anti-doping laboratories.2 Specific requirements are also described in several Technical Documents or Guidelines in which various topics are highlighted such as the identification criteria for gas chromatography (GC) and liquid chromatography (LC) coupled to mass spectrometry (MS) techniques (IDCR), measurements and reporting of endogenous androgenic anabolic agents (EAAS) and analytical requirements for the Athlete Biological Passport (ABP).

Evaluation of steroidomics by liquid chromatography hyphenated to mass spectrometry as a powerful analytical strategy for measuring human steroid perturbations.

This review presents the evolution of steroid analytical techniques, including gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (GC-MS), immunoassay (IA) and targeted liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry (LC-MS), and it evaluates the potential of extended steroid profiles by a metabolomics-based approach, namely steroidomics. Steroids regulate essential biological functions including growth and reproduction, and perturbations of the steroid homeostasis can generate serious physiological issues; therefore, specific and sensitive methods have been developed to measure steroid concentrations. GC-MS measuring several steroids simultaneously was considered the first historical standard method for analysis. Steroids were then quantified by immunoassay, allowing a higher throughput; however, major drawbacks included the measurement of a single compound instead of a panel and cross-reactivity reactions. Targeted LC-MS methods with selected reaction monitoring (SRM) were then introduced for quantifying a small steroid subset without the problems of cross-reactivity. The next step was the integration of metabolomic approaches in the context of steroid analyses. As metabolomics tends to identify and quantify all the metabolites (i.e., the metabolome) in a specific system, appropriate strategies were proposed for discovering new biomarkers. Steroidomics, defined as the untargeted analysis of the steroid content in a sample, was implemented in several fields, including doping analysis, clinical studies, in vivo or in vitro toxicology assays, and more. This review discusses the current analytical methods for assessing steroid changes and compares them to steroidomics. Steroids, their pathways, their implications in diseases and the biological matrices in which they are analysed will first be described. Then, the different analytical strategies will be presented with a focus on their ability to obtain relevant information on the steroid pattern. The future technical requirements for improving steroid analysis will also be presented.

Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.

External Validation of the Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) Score for Predicting Stroke-Associated Pneumonia in the Athens Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Prestroke Independence, Sex, Age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (ISAN) score was developed recently for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP), one of the most common complications after stroke. The aim of the present study was to externally validate the ISAN score. METHODS: Data included in the Athens Stroke Registry between June 1992 and December 2011 were used for this analysis. Inclusion criteria were the availability of all ISAN score variables (prestroke independence, sex, age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score). Receiver operating characteristic curves and linear regression analyses were used to determine the discriminatory power of the score and to assess the correlation between actual and predicted pneumonia in the study population. Separate analyses were performed for patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). RESULTS: The analysis included 3204 patients (AIS: 2732, ICH: 472). The ISAN score demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AIS (area under the curve [AUC]: .83 [95% confidence interval {CI}: .81-.85]). In the ICH group, the score was less effective (AUC: .69 [95% CI: .63-.74]). Higher-risk groups of ISAN score were associated with an increased relative risk of SAP; risk increase was more prominent in the AIS population. Predicted pneumonia correlated very well with actual pneumonia (AIS group: R(2) = .885; β-coefficient = .941, P < .001; ICH group: R(2) = .880, β-coefficient = .938, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In our external validation in the Athens Stroke Registry cohort, the ISAN score predicted SAP very accurately in AIS patients and demonstrated good discriminatory power in the ICH group. Further validation and assessment of clinical usefulness would strengthen the score's utility further.

Development of a systematic computer vision-based method to analyse and compare images of false identity documents for forensic intelligence purposes-Part I: acquisition, calibration and validation issues

Following their detection and seizure by police and border guard authorities, false identity and travel documents are usually scanned, producing digital images. This research investigates the potential of these images to classify false identity documents, highlight links between documents produced by a same modus operandi or same source, and thus support forensic intelligence efforts. Inspired by previous research work about digital images of Ecstasy tablets, a systematic and complete method has been developed to acquire, collect, process and compare images of false identity documents. This first part of the article highlights the critical steps of the method and the development of a prototype that processes regions of interest extracted from images. Acquisition conditions have been fine-tuned in order to optimise reproducibility and comparability of images. Different filters and comparison metrics have been evaluated and the performance of the method has been assessed using two calibration and validation sets of documents, made up of 101 Italian driving licenses and 96 Portuguese passports seized in Switzerland, among which some were known to come from common sources. Results indicate that the use of Hue and Edge filters or their combination to extract profiles from images, and then the comparison of profiles with a Canberra distance-based metric provides the most accurate classification of documents. The method appears also to be quick, efficient and inexpensive. It can be easily operated from remote locations and shared amongst different organisations, which makes it very convenient for future operational applications. The method could serve as a first fast triage method that may help target more resource-intensive profiling methods (based on a visual, physical or chemical examination of documents for instance). Its contribution to forensic intelligence and its application to several sets of false identity documents seized by police and border guards will be developed in a forthcoming article (part II).

Development and initial validation of the Parental PELICAN Questionnaire (PaPEQu) - an instrument to assess parental experiences and needs during their child's end-of-life care.

AIM: To develop and test the Parental PELICAN Questionnaire, an instrument to retrospectively assess parental experiences and needs during their child's end-of-life care. BACKGROUND: To offer appropriate care for dying children, healthcare professionals need to understand the illness experience from the family perspective. A questionnaire specific to the end-of-life experiences and needs of parents losing a child is needed to evaluate the perceived quality of paediatric end-of-life care. DESIGN: This is an instrument development study applying mixed methods based on recommendations for questionnaire design and validation. METHOD: The Parental PELICAN Questionnaire was developed in four phases between August 2012-March 2014: phase 1: item generation; phase 2: validity testing; phase 3: translation; phase 4: pilot testing. Psychometric properties were assessed after applying the Parental PELICAN Questionnaire in a sample of 224 bereaved parents in April 2014. Validity testing covered the evidence based on tests of content, internal structure and relations to other variables. RESULTS: The Parental PELICAN Questionnaire consists of approximately 90 items in four slightly different versions accounting for particularities of the four diagnostic groups. The questionnaire's items were structured according to six quality domains described in the literature. Evidence of initial validity and reliability could be demonstrated with the involvement of healthcare professionals and bereaved parents. CONCLUSION: The Parental PELICAN Questionnaire holds promise as a measure to assess parental experiences and needs and is applicable to a broad range of paediatric specialties and settings. Future validation is needed to evaluate its suitability in different cultures.

Validation of a brief form of the Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion questionnaire.

The aim of this study was the validation of a brief form of the Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion questionnaire using data from 5065 men from the "Cohort Study on Substance-Use Risk Factors." A 9-item scale covering three factors was proposed. Excellent indices of internal consistency were measured (α = .93). The confirmatory factor analyses resulted in acceptable fit indices supporting measurement invariance across French and German forms. Significant correlations were found between the brief form of the Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion questionnaire, and satisfaction and self-reported health, providing evidence of the concurrent validity of the scale. Perceived neighborhood social cohesion, and depression and suicide attempts were negatively associated, sustaining the protective effect of perceived social cohesion.

Validation of French and German versions of a Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion questionnaire among young Swiss males, and its relationship with substance use

This study main purpose was the validation of both French and German versions of a Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire. The sample group comprised 5065 Swiss men from the "Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors." Multigroup Confirmatory factor analysis showed that a three-factor model fits the data well, which substantiates the generalizability of Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire factor structure, regardless of the language. The Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire demonstrated excellent homogeneity (α = 95) and split-half reliability (r = .96). The Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire was sensitive to community size and participants' financial situation, confirming that it also measures real social conditions. Finally, weak but frequent correlations between Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire and alcohol, cigarette, and cannabis dependence were measured.