Emergent geomorphic-vegetation interactions on a subalpine alluvial fan

Following perturbation, an ecosystem (flora, fauna, soil) should evolve as a function of time at a rate conditioned by external variables (relief, climate, geology). More recently, biogeomorphologists have focused upon the notion of co-development of geomorphic processes with ecosystems over very short through to very long (evolutionary) timescales. Alpine environments have been a particular focus of this co-development. However, work in this field has tended to adopt a simplified view of the relationship between perturbation and succession, including: how the landform and ecosystem itself conditions the impact of a perturbation to create a complex spatial response impact; and how perturbations are not simply ecosystem destroyers but can be a significant source of ecosystem resources. What this means is that at the within landform scale, there may well be a complex and dynamic topographic and sedimentological template that co-develops with soil, flora and fauna. Here, we present and test a conceptual model of this template for a subalpine alluvial fan. We combine detailed floristic inventory with soil inventory, determination of edaphic variables and analysis of historical aerial imagery. Spatial variation in the probability of perturbation of sites on the fan surface was associated with down fan variability in the across-fan distribution of fan ages, fan surface channel characteristics and fan surface sedimentology. Floristic survey confirmed that these edaphic factors distinguished site floristic richness and plant communities up until the point that the soil-vegetation system was sufficiently developed to sustain plant communities regardless of edaphic conditions. Thus, the primary explanatory variable was the estimated age of each site, which could be tied back into perturbation history and its spatial expression due to the geometry of the fan: distinct plant communities were emergent both across fan and down fan, a distribution maintained by the way in which the fan dissipates potentially perturbing events.

Digital evidence, 'absence' of data and ambiguous patterns of reasoning

In this paper we discuss the use of digital data by the Swiss Federal Criminal Court in a recent case of attempted homicide. We use this case to examine drawbacks for the defense when the presentation of scientific evidence is partial, especially when the only perspective mentioned is that of the prosecution. We tackle this discussion at two distinct levels. First, we pursue an essentially non-technical presentation of the topic by drawing parallels between the court's summing up of the case and flawed patterns of reasoning commonly seen in other forensic disciplines, such as DNA and particle traces (e.g., gunshot residues). Then, we propose a formal analysis of the case, using elements of probability and graphical probability models, to justify our main claim that the partial presentation of digital evidence poses a risk to the administration of justice in that it keeps vital information from the defense. We will argue that such practice constitutes a violation of general principles of forensic interpretation as established by forensic science literature and current recommendations by forensic science interest groups (e.g., the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes). Finally, we posit that argument construction and analysis using formal methods can help replace digital evidence appropriately into context and thus support a sound evaluation of the evidence.

Analysis of space-time environmental data in complex regions

This thesis develops a comprehensive and a flexible statistical framework for the analysis and detection of space, time and space-time clusters of environmental point data. The developed clustering methods were applied in both simulated datasets and real-world environmental phenomena; however, only the cases of forest fires in Canton of Ticino (Switzerland) and in Portugal are expounded in this document. Normally, environmental phenomena can be modelled as stochastic point processes where each event, e.g. the forest fire ignition point, is characterised by its spatial location and occurrence in time. Additionally, information such as burned area, ignition causes, landuse, topographic, climatic and meteorological features, etc., can also be used to characterise the studied phenomenon. Thereby, the space-time pattern characterisa- tion represents a powerful tool to understand the distribution and behaviour of the events and their correlation with underlying processes, for instance, socio-economic, environmental and meteorological factors. Consequently, we propose a methodology based on the adaptation and application of statistical and fractal point process measures for both global (e.g. the Morisita Index, the Box-counting fractal method, the multifractal formalism and the Ripley's K-function) and local (e.g. Scan Statistics) analysis. Many measures describing the space-time distribution of environmental phenomena have been proposed in a wide variety of disciplines; nevertheless, most of these measures are of global character and do not consider complex spatial constraints, high variability and multivariate nature of the events. Therefore, we proposed an statistical framework that takes into account the complexities of the geographical space, where phenomena take place, by introducing the Validity Domain concept and carrying out clustering analyses in data with different constrained geographical spaces, hence, assessing the relative degree of clustering of the real distribution. Moreover, exclusively to the forest fire case, this research proposes two new methodologies to defining and mapping both the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) described as the interaction zone between burnable vegetation and anthropogenic infrastructures, and the prediction of fire ignition susceptibility. In this regard, the main objective of this Thesis was to carry out a basic statistical/- geospatial research with a strong application part to analyse and to describe complex phenomena as well as to overcome unsolved methodological problems in the characterisation of space-time patterns, in particular, the forest fire occurrences. Thus, this Thesis provides a response to the increasing demand for both environmental monitoring and management tools for the assessment of natural and anthropogenic hazards and risks, sustainable development, retrospective success analysis, etc. The major contributions of this work were presented at national and international conferences and published in 5 scientific journals. National and international collaborations were also established and successfully accomplished. -- Cette thèse développe une méthodologie statistique complète et flexible pour l'analyse et la détection des structures spatiales, temporelles et spatio-temporelles de données environnementales représentées comme de semis de points. Les méthodes ici développées ont été appliquées aux jeux de données simulées autant qu'A des phénomènes environnementaux réels; nonobstant, seulement le cas des feux forestiers dans le Canton du Tessin (la Suisse) et celui de Portugal sont expliqués dans ce document. Normalement, les phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être modélisés comme des processus ponctuels stochastiques ou chaque événement, par ex. les point d'ignition des feux forestiers, est déterminé par son emplacement spatial et son occurrence dans le temps. De plus, des informations tels que la surface bru^lée, les causes d'ignition, l'utilisation du sol, les caractéristiques topographiques, climatiques et météorologiques, etc., peuvent aussi être utilisées pour caractériser le phénomène étudié. Par conséquent, la définition de la structure spatio-temporelle représente un outil puissant pour compren- dre la distribution du phénomène et sa corrélation avec des processus sous-jacents tels que les facteurs socio-économiques, environnementaux et météorologiques. De ce fait, nous proposons une méthodologie basée sur l'adaptation et l'application de mesures statistiques et fractales des processus ponctuels d'analyse global (par ex. l'indice de Morisita, la dimension fractale par comptage de boîtes, le formalisme multifractal et la fonction K de Ripley) et local (par ex. la statistique de scan). Des nombreuses mesures décrivant les structures spatio-temporelles de phénomènes environnementaux peuvent être trouvées dans la littérature. Néanmoins, la plupart de ces mesures sont de caractère global et ne considèrent pas de contraintes spatiales com- plexes, ainsi que la haute variabilité et la nature multivariée des événements. A cet effet, la méthodologie ici proposée prend en compte les complexités de l'espace géographique ou le phénomène a lieu, à travers de l'introduction du concept de Domaine de Validité et l'application des mesures d'analyse spatiale dans des données en présentant différentes contraintes géographiques. Cela permet l'évaluation du degré relatif d'agrégation spatiale/temporelle des structures du phénomène observé. En plus, exclusif au cas de feux forestiers, cette recherche propose aussi deux nouvelles méthodologies pour la définition et la cartographie des zones périurbaines, décrites comme des espaces anthropogéniques à proximité de la végétation sauvage ou de la forêt, et de la prédiction de la susceptibilité à l'ignition de feu. A cet égard, l'objectif principal de cette Thèse a été d'effectuer une recherche statistique/géospatiale avec une forte application dans des cas réels, pour analyser et décrire des phénomènes environnementaux complexes aussi bien que surmonter des problèmes méthodologiques non résolus relatifs à la caractérisation des structures spatio-temporelles, particulièrement, celles des occurrences de feux forestières. Ainsi, cette Thèse fournit une réponse à la demande croissante de la gestion et du monitoring environnemental pour le déploiement d'outils d'évaluation des risques et des dangers naturels et anthro- pogéniques. Les majeures contributions de ce travail ont été présentées aux conférences nationales et internationales, et ont été aussi publiées dans 5 revues internationales avec comité de lecture. Des collaborations nationales et internationales ont été aussi établies et accomplies avec succès.

Travellers' profile, travel patterns and vaccine practices-a 10-year prospective study in a Swiss Travel Clinic.

BACKGROUND: The travel clinic in Lausanne serves a catchment area of 700 000 of inhabitants and provides pre- and post-travel consultations. This study describes the profile of attendees before departure, their travel patterns and the travel clinic practices in terms of vaccination over time. METHODS: We included all pre-travel first consultation data recorded between November 2002 and December 2012 by a custom-made program DIAMM/G. We analysed client profiles, travel characteristics and vaccinations prescribed over time. RESULTS: Sixty-five thousand and forty-six client-trips were recorded. Fifty-one percent clients were female. Mean age was 32 years. In total, 0.1% were aged <1 year and 0.2% ≥80 years. Forty-six percent of travellers had pre-existing medical conditions. Forty-six percent were travelling to Africa, 35% to Asia, 20% to Latin America and 1% (each) to Oceania and Europe; 19% visited more than one country. India was the most common destination (9.6% of travellers) followed by Thailand (8.6%) and Kenya (6.4%). Seventy-three percent of travellers were planning to travel for ≤ 4 weeks. The main reasons for travel were tourism (75%) and visiting friends and relatives (18%). Sixteen percent were backpackers. Pre-travel advice were sought a median of 29 days before departure. Ninety-nine percent received vaccine(s). The most frequently administered vaccines were hepatitis A (53%), tetanus-diphtheria (46%), yellow fever (39%), poliomyelitis (38%) and typhoid fever (30%). CONCLUSIONS: The profile of travel clinic attendees was younger than the general Swiss population. A significant proportion of travellers received vaccinations that are recommended in the routine national programme. These findings highlight the important role of travel clinics to (i) take care of an age group that has little contact with general practitioners and (ii) update vaccination status. The most commonly prescribed travel-related vaccines were for hepatitis A and yellow fever. The question remains to know whether clients do attend travel clinics because of compulsory vaccinations or because of real travel health concern or both.

Complex patterns of global spread in invasive insects: eco-evolutionary and management consequences

The advent of simple and affordable tools for molecular identification of novel insect invaders and assessment of population diversity has changed the face of invasion biology in recent years. The widespread application of these tools has brought with it an emerging understanding that patterns in biogeography, introduction history and subsequent movement and spread of many invasive alien insects are far more complex than previously thought. We reviewed the literature and found that for a number of invasive insects, there is strong and growing evidence that multiple introductions, complex global movement, and population admixture in the invaded range are commonplace. Additionally, historical paradigms related to species and strain identities and origins of common invaders are in many cases being challenged. This has major consequences for our understanding of basic biology and ecology of invasive insects and impacts quarantine, management and biocontrol programs. In addition, we found that founder effects rarely limit fitness in invasive insects and may benefit populations (by purging harmful alleles or increasing additive genetic variance). Also, while phenotypic plasticity appears important post-establishment, genetic diversity in invasive insects is often higher than expected and increases over time via multiple introductions. Further, connectivity among disjunct regions of global invasive ranges is generally far higher than expected and is often asymmetric, with some populations contributing disproportionately to global spread. We argue that the role of connectivity in driving the ecology and evolution of introduced species with multiple invasive ranges has been historically underestimated and that such species are often best understood in a global context.